历史详情 · A 股观测台

2026-08-12

结论与证据

全A收盘为4128家上涨、1280家下跌，上涨占比74.53%；成交2.1672万亿元，环比-7.21%。单日广度明显扩张，90.0%样本位于MA20上方；97家封板、0家跌停，广度与涨停生态相互印证。这确认了当日扩张，但持续性仍需下一交易日验证。

广度扩张 · 量能收缩 · MA20上方90% · 97家封板 · 温度76.2

支持证据

16方向中CPO当日+2.98%居前；110家触板、封板率88.2%，最高7板。

反证与边界

煤炭当日等权-0.77%，创新药方向+0.37%；成交额环比-7.21%，资金流分类代理+247.2亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.1672 万亿
成交环比: -7.21%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 4128 / 1280 / 131
上涨覆盖: 74.53%
中位涨幅: +0.84%
MA20上方: 90.02%
20日新高 / 新低: 1511 / 43
涨停 / 跌停: 97 / 0
触板 / 未封: 110 / 13
封板率: 88.18%
最高连板: 7 板

收盘温度 76.2

广度26.08
26.08
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势18
18
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态15
15
输入与公式
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2.09
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
指数15
15
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 92.4

连板高度15
15
输入与公式
7.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数11.64
11.64
输入与公式
97.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率12
12
输入与公式
0.88 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率11.33
11.33
输入与公式
0.28 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价12
12
输入与公式
0.03 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应8.25
8.25
输入与公式
{"limitDown":0,"largeLoss":5} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.75 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比9
9
输入与公式
{"limitUp":97,"limitDown":0} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.15
4.15
输入与公式
0.91 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,946.68	+0.32%	9,861.2 亿
科创50	1,736.99	+1.61%	1,032.8 亿
深证成指	14,414.43	+1.09%	6,452.4 亿
创业板指	3,602.08	+1.49%	2,539.2 亿
中证1000	7,793.72	+1.24%	4,798.1 亿
国证2000	10,145.08	+1.41%	6,410.2 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	509	9.19%	+6.30%	+5.06%
趋势延续	1506	27.19%	+1.55%	+1.40%
低位修复	252	4.55%	+1.62%	+0.57%
中间状态	3272	59.07%	+0.28%	+0.31%

三项风险

普涨后的广度持续性尚未确认

上涨占比74.53%、中位数涨幅+0.84%；单日扩张不等同连续扩张。

少数方向逆势承压

石油石化、煤炭分别为-0.55%、-0.77%。

缩量与炸板共同降温

成交额环比-7.21%，110家触板中13家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度扩张能否延续

上涨占比继续高于50%，且MA20上方比例不显著低于今日90.0%。

CPO强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

创新药弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日88.2%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,946.68 · MA5 3,937.55 · MA10 3,883.51 · MA20 3,860.02

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,860.02 · 近10日最低 3,767.50 · 近20日最低 3,741.11；压力：近10日最高 3,967.59 · 近20日最高 3,967.59

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-02-11	4,124.43	4,142.56	4,122.43	4,131.99	+0.09%
2026-02-12	4,136.99	4,140.59	4,124.13	4,134.02	+0.05%
2026-02-13	4,115.92	4,123.84	4,079.77	4,082.07	-1.26%
2026-02-24	4,129.13	4,131.55	4,105.94	4,117.41	+0.87%
2026-02-25	4,123.78	4,167.84	4,122.70	4,147.23	+0.72%
2026-02-26	4,151.07	4,152.19	4,127.15	4,146.63	-0.01%
2026-02-27	4,128.90	4,166.23	4,128.36	4,162.88	+0.39%
2026-03-02	4,151.80	4,188.77	4,131.37	4,182.59	+0.47%
2026-03-03	4,189.41	4,197.23	4,116.01	4,122.68	-1.43%
2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

房地产	趋势扩散	95	+3.36%	+5.74%	+9.49%	+2.89%	96.84%	96.84%	198.0 亿	0.91%	10	37.30	1.20
通信	趋势扩散	127	+2.50%	+4.53%	+3.48%	+1.84%	83.46%	96.06%	1,801.9 亿	8.31%	4	110.72	4.58
电子	趋势扩散	517	+2.35%	+7.09%	-4.67%	+1.62%	87.23%	91.49%	5,996.6 亿	27.67%	6	88.56	5.21
综合	趋势扩散	20	+1.89%	+3.36%	+5.84%	+1.28%	100.00%	100.00%	35.30 亿	0.16%	1	48.93	2.90
食品饮料	趋势扩散	126	+1.69%	+3.67%	+6.87%	+0.80%	77.78%	86.51%	344.1 亿	1.59%	6	27.07	2.28
电力设备	修复延续	415	+1.57%	+2.38%	+5.88%	+1.20%	85.06%	97.83%	1,621.7 亿	7.48%	6	45.90	2.88
机械设备	趋势扩散	607	+1.51%	+4.67%	+2.59%	+1.03%	78.42%	94.56%	1,568.4 亿	7.24%	16	50.11	3.19
建筑装饰	修复延续	155	+1.42%	+2.98%	+4.23%	+0.83%	77.42%	86.45%	331.3 亿	1.53%	7	32.51	2.04
传媒	修复延续	131	+1.35%	+0.79%	+9.54%	+0.99%	80.15%	93.13%	581.6 亿	2.68%	3	40.70	3.11
社会服务	修复延续	86	+1.24%	+2.15%	+10.70%	+0.97%	83.72%	97.67%	115.2 亿	0.53%	1	36.98	2.95
轻工制造	趋势扩散	166	+1.24%	+3.48%	+4.56%	+1.12%	80.12%	92.77%	146.4 亿	0.68%	1	30.85	2.17
建筑材料	趋势扩散	76	+1.19%	+3.84%	+3.00%	+1.24%	86.84%	93.42%	308.0 亿	1.42%	0	45.86	1.65
商贸零售	修复延续	100	+1.19%	+2.52%	+6.17%	+0.94%	77.00%	95.00%	158.9 亿	0.73%	2	32.19	1.98
环保	趋势扩散	134	+1.17%	+3.46%	+4.36%	+0.97%	76.12%	89.55%	149.9 亿	0.69%	1	30.69	2.03
家用电器	修复延续	103	+1.17%	+2.78%	+3.87%	+0.82%	71.84%	87.38%	167.8 亿	0.77%	1	42.10	2.57
有色金属	趋势扩散	145	+1.10%	+3.85%	+8.24%	+0.77%	80.00%	97.24%	1,467.9 亿	6.77%	1	37.21	3.49
农林牧渔	趋势扩散	114	+1.03%	+3.75%	+5.25%	+0.73%	71.05%	93.86%	162.4 亿	0.75%	2	38.50	2.42
计算机	修复延续	356	+1.02%	+0.65%	+8.71%	+0.63%	70.51%	95.51%	1,195.6 亿	5.52%	7	83.17	3.67
国防军工	修复延续	141	+1.00%	+2.21%	+3.23%	+0.79%	78.01%	94.33%	450.3 亿	2.08%	0	85.43	3.81
基础化工	趋势扩散	448	+0.97%	+3.72%	+3.51%	+0.69%	74.11%	93.08%	1,025.0 亿	4.73%	3	37.60	2.29
汽车	修复延续	321	+0.96%	+2.35%	+3.89%	+0.69%	74.14%	90.03%	572.5 亿	2.64%	5	31.07	2.51
钢铁	低位修复	43	+0.80%	-0.49%	+3.19%	+0.75%	83.72%	72.09%	75.34 亿	0.35%	0	20.24	1.20
交通运输	修复延续	128	+0.76%	+0.48%	+2.86%	+0.53%	72.66%	65.63%	186.0 亿	0.86%	2	17.62	1.41
非银金融	低位修复	79	+0.75%	-1.28%	-1.08%	+0.45%	83.54%	48.10%	300.8 亿	1.39%	0	18.85	1.26
纺织服饰	趋势扩散	108	+0.58%	+4.08%	+5.42%	+0.46%	63.89%	89.81%	120.2 亿	0.55%	0	30.55	1.89
医药生物	修复延续	504	+0.53%	+6.70%	+2.84%	+0.19%	54.76%	89.29%	1,623.1 亿	7.49%	9	40.63	2.55
公用事业	方向待明	139	-0.03%	+0.73%	+7.32%	-0.21%	38.13%	67.63%	441.9 亿	2.04%	3	27.68	1.62
银行	方向待明	42	-0.09%	-0.69%	+0.24%	-0.12%	35.71%	14.29%	214.2 亿	0.99%	0	6.04	0.54
美容护理	修复延续	32	-0.21%	+1.49%	+4.64%	+0.20%	56.25%	68.75%	39.15 亿	0.18%	0	27.46	2.49
石油石化	高位分歧	48	-0.55%	+2.63%	+5.80%	-0.28%	41.67%	83.33%	164.2 亿	0.76%	0	40.73	2.08
煤炭	高位分歧	33	-0.77%	+4.94%	+6.02%	-0.54%	27.27%	93.94%	107.8 亿	0.50%	0	23.21	1.29

涨停生态

首板 80 家 · 多板 17 家 · 昨日涨停 60 家 · 今日晋级 17 家 · 晋级率 28.33%

7 板 · 1 家 · 百花医药

5 板 · 1 家 · 开开实业

4 板 · 1 家 · 秦安股份

3 板 · 7 家 · 华东数控、一鸣食品、北京文化、皇氏集团、同力天启、蓝盾光电、京投发展

2 板 · 7 家 · 巨轮智能、长城科技、香江控股、亚泰集团、鸿博股份、宝鹰股份、城地香江

1 板 · 80 家 · 永鼎股份、景旺电子、通宇通讯、先导基电、宝鼎科技、誉衡药业、炬光科技、江钨装备

行业聚类

机械设备 · 16 家 · 最高 3 板 · 华东数控、同力天启、蓝盾光电、巨轮智能、江钨装备、宗申动力

房地产 · 10 家 · 最高 3 板 · 京投发展、香江控股、首开股份、新城控股、滨江集团、荣盛发展

医药生物 · 9 家 · 最高 7 板 · 百花医药、开开实业、誉衡药业、美诺华、浙江医药、康恩贝

建筑装饰 · 7 家 · 最高 2 板 · 宝鹰股份、节能铁汉、罗曼股份、江河集团、金螳螂、ST龙元

计算机 · 7 家 · 最高 2 板 · 鸿博股份、城地香江、达实智能、云赛智联、格尔软件、威士顿

电力设备 · 6 家 · 最高 2 板 · 长城科技、风范股份、新能泰山、宝光股份、望变电气、金辰股份

电子 · 6 家 · 最高 1 板 · 景旺电子、先导基电、宝鼎科技、炬光科技、至纯科技、可川科技

食品饮料 · 6 家 · 最高 3 板 · 一鸣食品、皇氏集团、今世缘、好想你、安记食品、百合股份

汽车 · 5 家 · 最高 4 板 · 秦安股份、中鼎股份、香山股份、坤泰股份、ST金鸿顺

通信 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 永鼎股份、通宇通讯、通鼎互联、长进光子

传媒 · 3 家 · 最高 3 板 · 北京文化、风语筑、湖北广电

公用事业 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 德龙汇能、惠天热电、ST金鸿

基础化工 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 兄弟科技、天洋新材、华西股份

交通运输 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 富临运业、龙洲股份

农林牧渔 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 京基智农、粤海饲料

商贸零售 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 宁波中百、中兴商业

家用电器 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 德豪润达

有色金属 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 宏桥控股

环保 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 清新环境

社会服务 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 传智教育

综合 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 亚泰集团

轻工制造 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 茶花股份

连续晋级与首板

百花医药	600721.SH	医药生物	+10.04%	7	18.41 亿	主板	93345	150000	11	7/7	8,349.95 万
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	+10.00%	5	10.35 亿	主板	150000	—	1	4/5	—
秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	+10.02%	4	3,630.99 万	主板	92502	92502	0	4/4	2.71 亿
华东数控	002248.SZ	机械设备	+10.04%	3	8.63 亿	主板	93021	94033	7	3/3	8,710.07 万
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	+9.99%	3	8.28 亿	主板	100051	101533	1	8/12	6,784.26 万
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	+10.06%	3	6.63 亿	主板	92500	94509	1	3/3	2.43 亿
皇氏集团	002329.SZ	食品饮料	+9.95%	3	5.15 亿	主板	93503	94706	4	3/3	7,302.55 万
同力天启	605286.SH	机械设备	+10.01%	3	8,002.52 万	主板	92502	92502	0	3/3	9,332.05 万
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+19.99%	3	6,819.36 万	创业板	92500	92500	0	3/3	6.38 亿
京投发展	600683.SH	房地产	+10.02%	3	2,740.81 万	主板	92502	92502	0	3/3	1.23 亿
巨轮智能	002031.SZ	机械设备	+9.93%	2	13.52 亿	主板	93030	93206	1	2/2	3.07 亿
长城科技	603897.SH	电力设备	+9.99%	2	10.30 亿	主板	144346	144416	1	2/2	3,816.09 万
香江控股	600162.SH	房地产	+10.02%	2	7.89 亿	主板	93340	101249	2	2/2	6,386.28 万
亚泰集团	600881.SH	综合	+10.16%	2	7.56 亿	主板	130545	130545	0	2/2	5,330.19 万
鸿博股份	002229.SZ	计算机	+9.97%	2	3.34 亿	主板	93000	93000	0	2/2	2.79 亿
宝鹰股份	002047.SZ	建筑装饰	+10.11%	2	1.46 亿	主板	93209	93209	0	2/2	7,768.66 万
城地香江	603887.SH	计算机	+9.98%	2	8,118.68 万	主板	92503	92503	0	2/2	2.12 亿
永鼎股份	600105.SH	通信	+10.01%	1	81.65 亿	主板	104439	133312	7	1/1	3.56 亿
景旺电子	603228.SH	电子	+10.00%	1	61.45 亿	主板	144307	144307	0	3/5	4.45 亿
通宇通讯	002792.SZ	通信	+9.99%	1	32.80 亿	主板	105139	142751	4	5/8	6,365.30 万

晋级未完成（最多16只）

哈药股份	600664.SH	医药生物	+6.53%	51.91 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
联泰环保	603797.SH	环保	-3.96%	3.10 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
立新能源	001258.SZ	公用事业	-2.95%	32.45 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
国风新材	000859.SZ	基础化工	-2.67%	15.79 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
亚邦股份	603188.SH	基础化工	+0.61%	4.26 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
第一医药	600833.SH	医药生物	+3.14%	6.00 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-6.36%	15.04 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华智数媒	300426.SZ	传媒	-5.77%	6.11 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
豪尔赛	002963.SZ	建筑装饰	-4.93%	4.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
展鹏科技	603488.SH	机械设备	-4.69%	2.06 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
天融信	002212.SZ	计算机	-3.77%	8.19 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
文投控股	600715.SH	传媒	-3.33%	2.27 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
兆新股份	002256.SZ	公用事业	-3.02%	6.17 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
老百姓	603883.SH	医药生物	-2.78%	6.65 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
杭钢股份	600126.SH	钢铁	-2.58%	15.70 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
登云股份	002715.SZ	汽车	-2.40%	2.64 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

大跌样本

诚达药业	301201.SZ	医药生物	-10.49%	11.19 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
珈凯生物	920165.BJ	美容护理	-10.03%	1.82 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
新大洲A	000571.SZ	煤炭	-9.35%	6.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
羚锐制药	600285.SH	医药生物	-9.22%	9.02 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
首华燃气	300483.SZ	公用事业	-7.15%	4.68 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-6.36%	15.04 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
日科化学	300214.SZ	基础化工	-6.23%	9.62 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST帅电	605336.SH	家用电器	-5.96%	6,518.82 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华智数媒	300426.SZ	传媒	-5.77%	6.11 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
近岸蛋白	688137.SH	医药生物	-5.61%	3.29 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
南模生物	688265.SH	医药生物	-5.43%	1.88 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
锐新科技	300828.SZ	机械设备	-5.38%	2.84 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

杰理科技	920138.BJ	电子	+182.40%	0	15.70 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
浩淼科技	920856.BJ	机械设备	+29.94%	1	1.41 亿	北交所	95635	101505	3	1/1	898.61 万
盖世食品	920826.BJ	食品饮料	+22.25%	0	1.67 亿	北交所	143911	—	1	0/0	—
炬光科技	688167.SH	电子	+20.00%	1	20.02 亿	科创板	95043	95043	0	1/1	9,879.95 万
长进光子	688635.SH	通信	+20.00%	1	12.57 亿	科创板	142833	142833	0	1/1	2.33 亿
威士顿	301315.SZ	计算机	+19.99%	1	2.62 亿	创业板	94157	94157	0	1/1	7,026.02 万
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+19.99%	3	6,819.36 万	创业板	92500	92500	0	3/3	6.38 亿
超研股份	301602.SZ	医药生物	+19.97%	1	2.27 亿	创业板	93827	94721	1	1/1	3,385.16 万
节能铁汉	300197.SZ	建筑装饰	+19.79%	1	6.12 亿	创业板	142727	142727	0	1/1	7,066.84 万
瑞纳智能	301129.SZ	机械设备	+17.25%	0	1.89 亿	创业板	94900	—	1	0/0	—
联瑞新材	688300.SH	基础化工	+15.01%	0	25.17 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
宝莱特	300246.SZ	医药生物	+14.29%	0	7.79 亿	创业板	131954	—	1	0/0	—

跌幅居前

诚达药业	301201.SZ	医药生物	-10.49%	11.19 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
珈凯生物	920165.BJ	美容护理	-10.03%	1.82 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
新大洲A	000571.SZ	煤炭	-9.35%	6.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
羚锐制药	600285.SH	医药生物	-9.22%	9.02 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
首华燃气	300483.SZ	公用事业	-7.15%	4.68 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-6.36%	15.04 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
日科化学	300214.SZ	基础化工	-6.23%	9.62 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST帅电	605336.SH	家用电器	-5.96%	6,518.82 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华智数媒	300426.SZ	传媒	-5.77%	6.11 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
近岸蛋白	688137.SH	医药生物	-5.61%	3.29 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
南模生物	688265.SH	医药生物	-5.43%	1.88 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
锐新科技	300828.SZ	机械设备	-5.38%	2.84 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3192	+1.11%	72.99%	86.65%	+1.52%
创业板	1400	+1.31%	77.21%	96.36%	+2.58%
科创板	612	+1.41%	73.37%	93.30%	+1.91%
北交所	335	+1.79%	80.00%	89.55%	+2.07%

市值分层

小盘	2770	+1.31%	82.13%	33.70 亿
中盘	1662	+1.21%	70.88%	94.85 亿
大盘	831	+1.26%	63.30%	291.7 亿
超大盘	276	+0.59%	53.99%	1,365.4 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

CPO	趋势扩散	212/212	+2.98%	+7.76%	-3.87%	+2.95%	+7.69%	-4.38%	-0.03%	92.92%	94.34%	4,142.9 亿	19.12%	20.00%	+1.75%	6	162.3 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	趋势扩散	206/204	+2.38%	+7.79%	-8.40%	+2.36%	+7.74%	-8.81%	-0.02%	91.18%	91.67%	3,521.4 亿	16.25%	15.00%	+1.14%	3	79.30 亿	100.00%
先进封装	趋势扩散	204/204	+2.31%	+7.53%	-6.87%	+2.31%	+7.67%	-7.58%	-0.00%	90.20%	93.63%	2,694.8 亿	12.43%	10.00%	+1.07%	2	37.42 亿	100.00%
PCB	趋势扩散	236/236	+2.00%	+7.73%	-2.43%	+2.00%	+7.73%	-3.15%	-0.00%	88.56%	95.76%	2,449.9 亿	11.30%	45.00%	+0.76%	2	57.47 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	趋势扩散	43/43	+1.79%	+8.49%	-10.46%	+1.79%	+8.50%	-10.76%	-0.00%	93.02%	93.02%	464.1 亿	2.14%	25.00%	+0.56%	0	-5.55 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	趋势扩散	57/57	+1.75%	+5.47%	-7.37%	+1.74%	+5.62%	-7.46%	-0.01%	92.98%	94.74%	660.9 亿	3.05%	10.00%	+0.52%	0	5.66 亿	100.00%
商业航天	方向待明	507/507	+1.64%	+3.41%	+1.36%	+1.64%	+3.44%	+0.94%	-0.00%	84.02%	94.08%	2,971.4 亿	13.71%	45.00%	+0.40%	9	79.94 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	方向待明	229/229	+1.62%	+3.70%	-1.41%	+1.62%	+3.69%	-1.85%	+0.01%	79.91%	90.39%	2,382.7 亿	10.99%	20.00%	+0.38%	6	28.31 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	趋势扩散	80/80	+1.58%	+7.32%	-4.11%	+1.58%	+7.27%	-5.32%	+0.00%	86.25%	93.75%	461.8 亿	2.13%	25.00%	+0.35%	0	1.03 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/197	+1.49%	+2.02%	+9.30%	+1.49%	+2.01%	+8.86%	+0.00%	80.20%	93.91%	710.1 亿	3.28%	70.00%	+0.26%	6	12.06 亿	100.00%
酿酒	方向待明	31/30	+1.36%	+0.71%	+12.46%	+1.91%	+3.03%	+6.70%	+0.55%	93.33%	93.33%	159.0 亿	0.73%	45.00%	+0.12%	1	7.45 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/461	+1.32%	+3.33%	+1.16%	+1.32%	+3.36%	+0.68%	-0.00%	77.01%	94.36%	2,638.8 亿	12.18%	25.00%	+0.08%	8	45.16 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	+1.12%	+3.59%	+3.39%	+1.12%	+3.57%	+2.98%	+0.00%	71.22%	97.84%	418.2 亿	1.93%	45.00%	-0.11%	4	-1.52 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	方向待明	34/34	+0.95%	+2.97%	+0.24%	+0.95%	+2.95%	-0.20%	+0.00%	85.29%	94.12%	74.78 亿	0.35%	20.00%	-0.28%	0	-1.49 亿	100.00%
MLCC	方向待明	35/35	+0.45%	+7.18%	—	+0.45%	+7.19%	+0.26%	+0.00%	54.29%	97.14%	673.2 亿	3.11%	65.00%	-0.79%	0	-20.18 亿	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	+0.37%	+7.07%	+0.99%	+0.37%	+7.14%	+0.58%	+0.00%	53.57%	88.21%	1,210.3 亿	5.58%	65.00%	-0.87%	6	-37.19 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

CPO · 趋势扩散

领涨：炬光科技（688167.SH）+20.00%、长盈通（688143.SH）+13.06%、菲沃泰（688371.SH）+12.59%

领跌：麦捷科技（300319.SZ）-2.30%、利和兴（301013.SZ）-1.79%、星网锐捷（002396.SZ）-1.70%

存储芯片 · 趋势扩散

领涨：炬光科技（688167.SH）+20.00%、联瑞新材（688300.SH）+15.01%、先导基电（600641.SH）+10.01%

领跌：麦捷科技（300319.SZ）-2.30%、联芸科技（688449.SH）-1.85%、利和兴（301013.SZ）-1.79%

先进封装 · 趋势扩散

领涨：炬光科技（688167.SH）+20.00%、联瑞新材（688300.SH）+15.01%、光智科技（300489.SZ）+11.71%

领跌：容大感光（300576.SZ）-2.10%、*ST闻泰（600745.SH）-1.89%、托伦斯（301583.SZ）-1.39%

PCB · 趋势扩散

领涨：金禄电子（301282.SZ）+11.13%、景旺电子（603228.SH）+10.00%、宝鼎科技（002552.SZ）+10.00%

领跌：立方控股（920130.BJ）-4.73%、中岩大地（003001.SZ）-4.06%、永杰新材（603271.SH）-2.36%

电子化学品 · 趋势扩散

领涨：菲沃泰（688371.SH）+12.59%、格林达（603931.SH）+4.73%、思泉新材（301489.SZ）+4.42%

领跌：容大感光（300576.SZ）-2.10%、中船特气（688146.SH）-1.21%、海星股份（603115.SH）-0.41%

玻璃基板 · 趋势扩散

领涨：美迪凯（688079.SH）+6.23%、兴森科技（002436.SZ）+6.08%、洪田股份（603800.SH）+3.84%

领跌：大族激光（002008.SZ）-1.13%、红星发展（600367.SH）-0.86%、慧谷新材（301683.SZ）-0.32%

商业航天 · 方向待明

领涨：长进光子（688635.SH）+20.00%、蓝盾光电（300862.SZ）+19.99%、长盈通（688143.SH）+13.06%

领跌：天融信（002212.SZ）-3.77%、科新机电（300092.SZ）-3.70%、北路智控（301195.SZ）-2.64%

液冷服务器 · 方向待明

领涨：菲沃泰（688371.SH）+12.59%、骄成超声（688392.SH）+10.67%、海鸥股份（603269.SH）+10.03%

领跌：日科化学（300214.SZ）-6.23%、锐新科技（300828.SZ）-5.38%、豪尔赛（002963.SZ）-4.93%

光刻胶 · 趋势扩散

领涨：天龙集团（300063.SZ）+8.88%、芯源微（688037.SH）+7.57%、世名科技（300522.SZ）+6.88%

领跌：湖北宜化（000422.SZ）-2.91%、国风新材（000859.SZ）-2.67%、容大感光（300576.SZ）-2.10%

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：北京文化（000802.SZ）+10.06%、科新发展（600234.SH）+10.02%、京基智农（000048.SZ）+9.98%

领跌：华智数媒（300426.SZ）-5.77%、广东建科（301632.SZ）-5.27%、文投控股（600715.SH）-3.33%

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：今世缘（603369.SH）+9.99%、古井贡酒（000596.SZ）+4.54%、迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）+4.17%

领跌：贵州茅台（600519.SH）-0.26%、*ST尼雅（600084.SH）-0.24%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：禾川科技（688320.SH）+13.07%、骄成超声（688392.SH）+10.67%、日发精机（002520.SZ）+10.02%

领跌：捷众科技（920690.BJ）-5.07%、埃斯顿（002747.SZ）-3.90%、富春染织（605189.SH）-3.57%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：瑜欣电子（301107.SZ）+11.94%、日发精机（002520.SZ）+10.02%、中鼎股份（000887.SZ）+10.01%

领跌：中大力德（002896.SZ）-3.41%、浙江荣泰（603119.SH）-3.03%、绿的谐波（688017.SH）-2.74%

金属新材料 · 方向待明

领涨：江南新材（603124.SH）+5.78%、斯瑞新材（688102.SH）+5.61%、铂科新材（300811.SZ）+2.63%

领跌：中科磁业（301141.SZ）-1.46%、英洛华（000795.SZ）-0.58%、天和磁材（603072.SH）-0.52%

MLCC · 方向待明

领涨：双星新材（002585.SZ）+5.51%、昀冢科技（688260.SH）+5.05%、贵研铂业（600459.SH）+4.43%

领跌：国风新材（000859.SZ）-2.67%、火炬电子（603678.SH）-2.14%、博迁新材（605376.SH）-1.95%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：亚泰集团（600881.SH）+10.16%、百花医药（600721.SH）+10.04%、浙江医药（600216.SH）+9.98%

领跌：诚达药业（301201.SZ）-10.49%、羚锐制药（600285.SH）-9.22%、振东制药（300158.SZ）-3.83%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

AI与半导体	129	+1.98%	+1.07%	+0.39%	-8.15%	380.9 亿	100.00%	43/53	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · +1.10%
中小盘宽基	140	+1.46%	+1.23%	+2.97%	-1.01%	232.6 亿	100.00%	16/58	易方达创业板ETF · -2.19%
消费	46	+0.91%	+0.43%	+1.44%	+3.50%	21.82 亿	100.00%	6/17	鹏华中证酒ETF · -0.49%
资源周期	59	+0.71%	+0.69%	+1.79%	+9.01%	67.18 亿	100.00%	20/23	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · -1.09%
金融地产	49	+0.56%	+0.24%	-0.90%	-1.75%	59.50 亿	100.00%	18/14	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · +0.36%
大盘宽基	82	+0.32%	+0.38%	+0.62%	-0.64%	97.61 亿	100.00%	11/30	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · -2.64%
红利防御	97	-0.28%	-0.26%	-0.09%	+2.55%	35.30 亿	100.00%	17/33	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · +0.23%
医药健康	52	-0.41%	-0.30%	+4.68%	+2.70%	52.98 亿	100.00%	3/44	银华中证创新药产业ETF · -0.84%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

AI硬件与数字经济	通信、电子、计算机	1000	+1.89%	+4.47%	+1.13%	80.80%	93.50%	41.50%	17
金融地产	房地产、非银金融、银行	216	+1.73%	+1.92%	+3.82%	80.09%	62.96%	3.29%	10
高端制造	电力设备、机械设备、国防军工、汽车	1484	+1.36%	+3.29%	+3.85%	79.31%	94.47%	19.44%	27
基建链	建筑装饰、建筑材料	231	+1.35%	+3.26%	+3.82%	80.52%	88.74%	2.95%	7
大消费	食品饮料、社会服务、商贸零售、家用电器、农林牧渔	529	+1.28%	+3.05%	+6.43%	75.99%	91.68%	4.38%	12
资源周期	有色金属、基础化工、钢铁、石油石化、煤炭	717	+0.81%	+3.47%	+4.72%	71.55%	92.05%	13.11%	4
公用防御	环保、交通运输、公用事业	401	+0.63%	+1.56%	+4.90%	61.85%	74.31%	3.59%	6
医药健康	医药生物、美容护理	536	+0.48%	+6.39%	+2.95%	54.85%	88.06%	7.67%	9

近五个交易日

2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7

边际变化

成交额：收缩 · -7.21%

上涨覆盖：扩大 · +45.37%

涨停家数：扩张 · 37

最高连板：抬升 · 1

五日成交中位：2.5387 万亿 · 温度区间：46.3–76.2 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：MLCC 2次、先进封装 2次、创新药 2次、电子化学品 2次、CPO 1次、PCB 1次

行业：电子 4次、通信 2次、农林牧渔 1次、医药生物 1次、国防军工 1次、房地产 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日-7.2%，上涨覆盖74.5%，五日成交中位25387.1亿元。

方向承接 · CPO当日收益+2.98%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 机械设备涨停16家，最高3板。

负反馈 · 跌停0家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 25387.1亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · CPO

确认：CPO继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 28.3%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖74.5%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 31 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7

情绪九维 92.4

连板高度15
15
输入与公式
7 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数11.64
11.64
输入与公式
97 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率12
12
输入与公式
0.8818181818181818 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率11.33
11.33
输入与公式
0.2833333333333333 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价12
12
输入与公式
0.03200253333333333 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应8.25
8.25
输入与公式
{"limitDown":0,"largeLoss":5} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.7452608774146958 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比9
9
输入与公式
{"limitUp":97,"limitDown":0} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.15
4.15
输入与公式
0.9072630553622496 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	509	9.19%	+6.30%	+5.06%
趋势延续	1506	27.19%	+1.55%	+1.40%
低位修复	252	4.55%	+1.62%	+0.57%
中间状态	3272	59.07%	+0.28%	+0.31%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 60 家 · 今日晋级 17 家 · 晋级率 28.33%

晋级名单

百花医药	600721.SH	医药生物	7	+10.04%
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	5	+10.00%
秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	4	+10.02%
华东数控	002248.SZ	机械设备	3	+10.04%
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	3	+9.99%
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	3	+10.06%
皇氏集团	002329.SZ	食品饮料	3	+9.95%
同力天启	605286.SH	机械设备	3	+10.01%
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	3	+19.99%
京投发展	600683.SH	房地产	3	+10.02%
巨轮智能	002031.SZ	机械设备	2	+9.93%
长城科技	603897.SH	电力设备	2	+9.99%
香江控股	600162.SH	房地产	2	+10.02%
亚泰集团	600881.SH	综合	2	+10.16%
鸿博股份	002229.SZ	计算机	2	+9.97%
宝鹰股份	002047.SZ	建筑装饰	2	+10.11%
城地香江	603887.SH	计算机	2	+9.98%
永鼎股份	600105.SH	通信	1	+10.01%
景旺电子	603228.SH	电子	1	+10.00%
通宇通讯	002792.SZ	通信	1	+9.99%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

共 16 条假设

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 未确认 · 今日结算

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认 · 今日结算

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认 · 今日结算

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认 · 今日结算

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

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确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

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确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

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确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

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确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

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确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

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确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:02:42.741063+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。