历史详情 · A 股观测台

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2026-08-11

结论与证据

全A收盘为1615家上涨、3777家下跌，上涨占比29.16%；成交2.3356万亿元，环比-8.00%。单日广度显著转弱，但88.1%样本仍站在MA20上方，同时有60家封板、2家跌停，更接近结构分歧，而不是所有趋势同步失效。

广度承压 · 量能收缩 · MA20上方88% · 60家封板 · 温度46.3

支持证据

16方向中MLCC当日+1.79%居前；81家触板、封板率74.1%，最高6板。

反证与边界

有色金属当日等权-3.02%，金属新材料方向-2.03%；成交额环比-8.00%，资金流分类代理-398.7亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.3356 万亿
成交环比: -8.00%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 1615 / 3777 / 147
上涨覆盖: 29.16%
中位涨幅: -0.68%
MA20上方: 88.14%
20日新高 / 新低: 725 / 55
涨停 / 跌停: 60 / 2
触板 / 未封: 81 / 21
封板率: 74.07%
最高连板: 6 板

收盘温度 46.3

广度10.2
10.2
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势17.63
17.63
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态14.52
14.52
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
指数2.5
2.5
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 62.7

连板高度12.86
12.86
输入与公式
6.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数7.2
7.2
输入与公式
60.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.46
10.46
输入与公式
0.74 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.21
6.21
输入与公式
0.16 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价6.43
6.43
输入与公式
0.01 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应3.6
3.6
输入与公式
{"limitDown":2,"largeLoss":35} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度4.37
4.37
输入与公式
0.29 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比6.75
6.75
输入与公式
{"limitUp":60,"limitDown":2} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.84
4.84
输入与公式
0.94 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,934.09	-0.82%	1.0667 万亿
科创50	1,709.50	-1.63%	1,104.1 亿
深证成指	14,259.44	-0.40%	7,048.7 亿
创业板指	3,549.16	+0.34%	2,771.0 亿
中证1000	7,698.05	-0.46%	5,152.8 亿
国证2000	10,004.48	-0.54%	6,763.5 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	292	5.27%	+6.40%	+5.31%
趋势延续	714	12.89%	+1.24%	+1.00%
低位修复	128	2.31%	+10.55%	+0.71%
中间状态	4405	79.53%	-1.20%	-1.01%

三项风险

单日市场广度明显承压

下跌3777家，上涨占比仅29.16%；中位数涨幅-0.68%。

少数方向逆势承压

国防军工、有色金属分别为-2.22%、-3.02%。

缩量与炸板共同降温

成交额环比-8.00%，81家触板中21家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度与趋势存量是否继续背离

若上涨占比修复且MA20上方比例保持高位，分歧仍偏结构性；两者同步下滑则风险升级。

MLCC强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

金属新材料弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日74.1%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,934.09 · MA5 3,923.90 · MA10 3,871.69 · MA20 3,860.46

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,860.46 · 近10日最低 3,767.50 · 近20日最低 3,741.11；压力：近10日最高 3,967.59 · 近20日最高 3,981.67

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-02-10	4,127.77	4,134.34	4,117.56	4,128.37	+0.13%
2026-02-11	4,124.43	4,142.56	4,122.43	4,131.99	+0.09%
2026-02-12	4,136.99	4,140.59	4,124.13	4,134.02	+0.05%
2026-02-13	4,115.92	4,123.84	4,079.77	4,082.07	-1.26%
2026-02-24	4,129.13	4,131.55	4,105.94	4,117.41	+0.87%
2026-02-25	4,123.78	4,167.84	4,122.70	4,147.23	+0.72%
2026-02-26	4,151.07	4,152.19	4,127.15	4,146.63	-0.01%
2026-02-27	4,128.90	4,166.23	4,128.36	4,162.88	+0.39%
2026-03-02	4,151.80	4,188.77	4,131.37	4,182.59	+0.47%
2026-03-03	4,189.41	4,197.23	4,116.01	4,122.68	-1.43%
2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

美容护理	方向待明	32	+3.35%	+1.84%	+8.12%	-0.79%	25.00%	75.00%	45.53 亿	0.19%	0	0	27.68	2.49
电子	方向待明	516	+0.87%	+10.20%	-10.14%	-0.64%	32.95%	85.47%	6,406.1 亿	27.43%	1	0	84.98	5.04
机械设备	方向待明	608	+0.55%	+5.61%	+0.75%	-0.58%	34.70%	91.45%	1,601.8 亿	6.86%	8	0	49.63	3.15
房地产	方向待明	95	+0.42%	+3.45%	+7.43%	0.00%	43.16%	91.58%	127.2 亿	0.54%	2	0	35.55	1.17
医药生物	方向待明	504	+0.38%	+6.74%	+5.59%	-0.19%	43.65%	89.48%	1,991.6 亿	8.53%	7	0	39.06	2.52
石油石化	方向待明	48	+0.37%	+3.24%	+4.70%	-0.23%	39.58%	91.67%	206.0 亿	0.88%	1	0	40.14	2.08
纺织服饰	方向待明	108	+0.12%	+4.56%	+6.01%	-0.38%	40.74%	92.59%	126.5 亿	0.54%	4	0	30.69	1.96
综合	方向待明	20	+0.09%	+1.33%	+4.30%	-0.58%	20.00%	100.00%	27.27 亿	0.12%	1	0	48.15	2.87
汽车	方向待明	321	+0.04%	+3.12%	+3.24%	-0.43%	35.51%	88.79%	607.8 亿	2.60%	7	0	30.75	2.44
煤炭	高位分歧	33	-0.02%	+6.12%	+9.26%	+0.04%	51.52%	100.00%	135.8 亿	0.58%	0	0	23.22	1.28
建筑装饰	高位分歧	155	-0.10%	+2.48%	+3.45%	-0.56%	34.19%	82.58%	274.5 亿	1.18%	5	0	32.61	2.01
计算机	方向待明	356	-0.16%	+1.80%	+8.25%	-0.43%	33.71%	94.38%	1,270.3 亿	5.44%	4	0	81.60	3.62
通信	高位分歧	127	-0.18%	+4.59%	-0.14%	-0.33%	37.01%	92.13%	1,588.9 亿	6.80%	1	0	103.33	4.55
公用事业	方向待明	139	-0.18%	+0.96%	+8.59%	-0.51%	28.78%	73.38%	488.0 亿	2.09%	3	0	28.20	1.63
传媒	方向待明	131	-0.24%	+0.01%	+11.07%	-0.70%	29.77%	91.60%	506.5 亿	2.17%	3	0	40.34	3.07
银行	方向待明	42	-0.24%	-1.73%	+1.81%	-0.34%	28.57%	19.05%	215.1 亿	0.92%	0	0	6.05	0.54
商贸零售	方向待明	100	-0.24%	+1.82%	+7.56%	-0.49%	27.00%	92.00%	159.0 亿	0.68%	0	0	31.89	1.93
环保	高位分歧	134	-0.26%	+3.47%	+3.57%	-0.66%	26.87%	90.30%	161.3 亿	0.69%	1	0	30.15	2.00
家用电器	高位分歧	103	-0.31%	+2.70%	+3.49%	-0.64%	31.07%	88.35%	192.8 亿	0.83%	0	0	41.69	2.57
电力设备	高位分歧	415	-0.59%	+2.76%	+3.46%	-0.87%	25.30%	95.66%	1,687.6 亿	7.23%	1	1	45.52	2.86
轻工制造	高位分歧	166	-0.62%	+3.28%	+4.13%	-0.80%	28.31%	90.36%	142.6 亿	0.61%	2	0	30.66	2.14
食品饮料	高位分歧	126	-0.64%	+2.06%	+8.00%	-0.87%	19.84%	84.13%	312.0 亿	1.34%	2	0	26.58	2.27
非银金融	方向待明	79	-0.65%	-1.51%	+0.55%	-0.71%	12.66%	32.91%	324.5 亿	1.39%	0	0	18.81	1.26
交通运输	方向待明	128	-0.75%	+0.15%	+3.31%	-0.89%	20.31%	60.16%	222.9 亿	0.95%	1	0	17.23	1.41
建筑材料	高位分歧	76	-0.86%	+4.15%	+1.80%	-0.99%	23.68%	89.47%	356.0 亿	1.52%	0	0	45.27	1.62
基础化工	高位分歧	448	-0.92%	+4.85%	+2.72%	-1.05%	18.53%	91.52%	1,169.2 亿	5.01%	5	0	37.39	2.25
社会服务	高位分歧	86	-0.96%	+2.23%	+10.68%	-0.91%	18.60%	96.51%	104.1 亿	0.45%	0	1	36.64	2.94
农林牧渔	高位分歧	114	-1.23%	+3.29%	+6.12%	-1.33%	11.40%	97.37%	178.8 亿	0.77%	0	0	39.00	2.40
钢铁	方向待明	43	-1.55%	-0.95%	+4.43%	-1.88%	4.65%	60.47%	84.61 亿	0.36%	1	0	19.96	1.21
国防军工	高位分歧	141	-2.22%	+3.02%	+1.35%	-1.90%	7.09%	92.91%	599.9 亿	2.57%	0	0	82.15	3.76
有色金属	高位分歧	145	-3.02%	+7.22%	+4.85%	-2.62%	4.14%	97.24%	2,042.0 亿	8.74%	0	0	36.87	3.43

涨停生态

首板 44 家 · 多板 16 家 · 昨日涨停 103 家 · 今日晋级 16 家 · 晋级率 15.53%

6 板 · 1 家 · 百花医药

4 板 · 1 家 · 开开实业

3 板 · 2 家 · 哈药股份、秦安股份

2 板 · 12 家 · 立新能源、国风新材、一鸣食品、第一医药、北京文化、同力天启、华东数控、皇氏集团

1 板 · 44 家 · 太极实业、百合花、洁美科技、甘咨询、万邦医药、甘李药业、新泉股份、斯菱智驱

行业聚类

机械设备 · 8 家 · 最高 2 板 · 同力天启、华东数控、蓝盾光电、巨轮智能、创力集团、华东重机

医药生物 · 7 家 · 最高 6 板 · 百花医药、开开实业、哈药股份、第一医药、万邦医药、甘李药业

汽车 · 7 家 · 最高 3 板 · 秦安股份、新泉股份、斯菱智驱、福赛科技、北特科技、朗博科技

基础化工 · 5 家 · 最高 2 板 · 国风新材、亚邦股份、百合花、双星新材、北化股份

建筑装饰 · 5 家 · 最高 1 板 · 太极实业、甘咨询、恒尚节能、豪尔赛、宝鹰股份

纺织服饰 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 金一文化、金发拉比、乔治白、*ST尔雅

计算机 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 鸿博股份、恒银科技、天融信、城地香江

传媒 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 北京文化、华智数媒、文投控股

公用事业 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 立新能源、华能蒙电、兆新股份

房地产 · 2 家 · 最高 2 板 · 京投发展、香江控股

轻工制造 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 安妮股份、林平发展

食品饮料 · 2 家 · 最高 2 板 · 一鸣食品、皇氏集团

交通运输 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 大众交通

环保 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 联泰环保

电力设备 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 长城科技

电子 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 洁美科技

石油石化 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · ST洲际

综合 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 亚泰集团

通信 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 武汉凡谷

钢铁 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 杭钢股份

连续晋级与首板

百花医药	600721.SH	医药生物	+10.01%	6	8.52 亿	主板	92501	93034	1	6/6	3.41 亿
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	+10.02%	4	7.52 亿	主板	93109	133836	21	4/4	1,870.03 万
哈药股份	600664.SH	医药生物	+9.97%	3	54.95 亿	主板	94704	134752	19	3/3	1.16 亿
秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	+9.97%	3	5,668.34 万	主板	92500	92500	0	3/3	1.20 亿
立新能源	001258.SZ	公用事业	+10.01%	2	36.29 亿	主板	100909	145457	1	2/2	652.07 万
国风新材	000859.SZ	基础化工	+9.97%	2	12.80 亿	主板	94430	100242	1	2/2	8,210.62 万
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	+9.99%	2	11.16 亿	主板	94235	140726	5	7/11	2,387.78 万
第一医药	600833.SH	医药生物	+9.99%	2	4.46 亿	主板	100029	112705	4	2/2	2,322.58 万
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	+10.00%	2	2.54 亿	主板	92500	92500	0	2/2	2.54 亿
同力天启	605286.SH	机械设备	+10.00%	2	2.42 亿	主板	100301	100301	0	2/2	5,793.13 万
华东数控	002248.SZ	机械设备	+10.05%	2	2.40 亿	主板	93000	93000	0	2/2	1.37 亿
皇氏集团	002329.SZ	食品饮料	+10.09%	2	1.96 亿	主板	93009	93221	1	2/2	5,179.69 万
联泰环保	603797.SH	环保	+10.02%	2	1.57 亿	主板	93338	93720	2	2/2	1,331.54 万
亚邦股份	603188.SH	基础化工	+9.91%	2	1.07 亿	主板	93018	93018	0	2/2	2,607.34 万
京投发展	600683.SH	房地产	+9.99%	2	1.03 亿	主板	92503	92503	0	2/2	7,458.81 万
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+19.99%	2	1,708.49 万	创业板	92500	92500	0	2/2	7.64 亿
太极实业	600667.SH	建筑装饰	+10.02%	1	64.67 亿	主板	103604	103604	0	1/1	3.43 亿
百合花	603823.SH	基础化工	+10.00%	1	18.78 亿	主板	135123	135123	0	4/7	9,684.27 万
洁美科技	002859.SZ	电子	+10.00%	1	15.21 亿	主板	94815	95233	1	1/1	1.27 亿
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	+10.03%	1	14.61 亿	主板	101115	144454	0	1/1	2,460.78 万

晋级未完成（最多16只）

宝鼎科技	002552.SZ	电子	+4.30%	30.51 亿	主板	93124	—	1	6/8	—
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	-1.63%	12.92 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
先导基电	600641.SH	电子	-5.64%	50.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
招金黄金	000506.SZ	有色金属	-5.27%	33.71 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
瑞康医药	002589.SZ	医药生物	-3.29%	8.07 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
哈三联	002900.SZ	医药生物	-1.69%	9.36 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
毕得医药	688073.SH	医药生物	+2.02%	7.37 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
誉衡药业	002437.SZ	医药生物	+2.33%	21.23 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
百普赛斯	301080.SZ	医药生物	+5.92%	28.36 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST威领	002667.SZ	机械设备	-8.78%	5.21 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
鹏欣资源	600490.SH	有色金属	-6.46%	11.73 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
西藏天路	600326.SH	建筑材料	-6.34%	9.30 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
海通发展	603162.SH	交通运输	-6.23%	7.87 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
北方长龙	301357.SZ	国防军工	-6.14%	10.37 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
信通电子	001388.SZ	电力设备	-5.61%	3.56 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
潮宏基	002345.SZ	纺织服饰	-5.49%	7.46 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

北京科锐	002350.SZ	电力设备	-10.01%	0	5.28 亿	主板	—	140418	3	—	1,158.71 万
*ST高科	600730.SH	社会服务	-9.99%	0	2.09 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

大跌样本

斯瑞新材	688102.SH	有色金属	-11.58%	13.20 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
维琪科技	920176.BJ	美容护理	-11.31%	2.04 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
北京科锐	002350.SZ	电力设备	-10.01%	5.28 亿	主板	—	140418	3	—	1,158.71 万
*ST高科	600730.SH	社会服务	-9.99%	2.09 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
腾龙股份	603158.SH	汽车	-9.84%	5.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
宁夏建材	600449.SH	建筑材料	-9.82%	8.15 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
芳源股份	688148.SH	电力设备	-9.73%	2.90 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
森合高科	920038.BJ	基础化工	-9.66%	3.52 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
展芯股份	301707.SZ	国防军工	-9.61%	12.97 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
招商轮船	601872.SH	交通运输	-9.35%	28.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华懋科技	603306.SH	汽车	-9.23%	15.79 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
天力复合	920576.BJ	有色金属	-9.15%	1.26 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

超纯应材	301717.SZ	电子	+662.24%	0	70.40 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
国仪公司	688828.SH	机械设备	+419.46%	0	23.24 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
珈凯生物	920165.BJ	美容护理	+138.53%	0	4.17 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
福赛科技	301529.SZ	汽车	+20.01%	1	5.58 亿	创业板	133403	133403	0	1/1	3,134.43 万
斯菱智驱	301550.SZ	汽车	+20.00%	1	11.73 亿	创业板	132009	132009	0	1/1	7,499.11 万
华智数媒	300426.SZ	传媒	+20.00%	1	4.21 亿	创业板	95615	95615	0	1/1	9,197.32 万
万邦医药	301520.SZ	医药生物	+20.00%	1	14.04 亿	创业板	110233	144103	6	1/1	1,907.44 万
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+19.99%	2	1,708.49 万	创业板	92500	92500	0	2/2	7.64 亿
联合化学	301209.SZ	基础化工	+15.04%	0	3.91 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
振东制药	300158.SZ	医药生物	+14.26%	0	6.80 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
丰光精密	920510.BJ	机械设备	+13.93%	0	3.65 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
达利凯普	301566.SZ	电子	+13.21%	0	18.57 亿	创业板	104124	—	1	0/0	—

跌幅居前

斯瑞新材	688102.SH	有色金属	-11.58%	13.20 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
维琪科技	920176.BJ	美容护理	-11.31%	2.04 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
北京科锐	002350.SZ	电力设备	-10.01%	5.28 亿	主板	—	140418	3	—	1,158.71 万
*ST高科	600730.SH	社会服务	-9.99%	2.09 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
腾龙股份	603158.SH	汽车	-9.84%	5.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
宁夏建材	600449.SH	建筑材料	-9.82%	8.15 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
芳源股份	688148.SH	电力设备	-9.73%	2.90 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
森合高科	920038.BJ	基础化工	-9.66%	3.52 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
展芯股份	301707.SZ	国防军工	-9.61%	12.97 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
招商轮船	601872.SH	交通运输	-9.35%	28.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华懋科技	603306.SH	汽车	-9.23%	15.79 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
天力复合	920576.BJ	有色金属	-9.15%	1.26 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3192	-0.45%	28.23%	84.99%	+1.55%
创业板	1400	+0.25%	31.50%	95.29%	+2.78%
科创板	613	+0.36%	35.56%	88.09%	+2.23%
北交所	334	-0.89%	16.47%	88.32%	+1.82%

市值分层

小盘	2770	-0.34%	28.56%	33.28 亿
中盘	1662	-0.33%	30.32%	93.86 亿
大盘	831	+0.73%	30.69%	289.3 亿
超大盘	276	-1.10%	23.55%	1,342.8 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

MLCC	趋势扩散	35/35	+1.79%	+14.18%	—	+1.79%	+13.93%	-4.74%	+0.00%	68.57%	97.14%	904.5 亿	3.87%	100.00%	+2.00%	3	17.35 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	+0.78%	+4.60%	+2.01%	+0.78%	+4.56%	+1.67%	+0.00%	51.80%	96.40%	467.4 亿	2.00%	75.00%	+1.00%	2	11.79 亿	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	+0.62%	+7.34%	+4.28%	+0.62%	+7.45%	+3.83%	+0.00%	49.29%	88.93%	1,506.9 亿	6.45%	80.00%	+0.84%	5	-7.42 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/462	+0.20%	+4.93%	-1.00%	+0.20%	+4.98%	-1.35%	-0.01%	42.64%	92.42%	2,795.1 亿	11.97%	35.00%	+0.42%	4	-12.71 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/197	-0.19%	+1.42%	+9.60%	-0.19%	+1.40%	+9.21%	-0.00%	32.49%	92.39%	603.5 亿	2.58%	55.00%	+0.02%	5	-19.69 亿	100.00%
CPO	高位分歧	212/212	-0.28%	+9.31%	-10.27%	-0.30%	+9.23%	-10.54%	-0.02%	36.79%	89.15%	4,220.9 亿	18.07%	20.00%	-0.06%	1	-28.61 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	高位分歧	229/229	-0.42%	+5.77%	-4.95%	-0.42%	+5.76%	-5.22%	+0.00%	31.44%	83.84%	2,412.2 亿	10.33%	20.00%	-0.21%	2	-23.50 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	高位分歧	57/57	-0.53%	+9.05%	-13.36%	-0.58%	+9.31%	-12.99%	-0.05%	29.82%	89.47%	703.5 亿	3.01%	10.00%	-0.32%	0	-16.44 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	高位分歧	80/80	-0.68%	+11.64%	-8.48%	-0.68%	+11.59%	-9.41%	-0.00%	26.25%	90.00%	488.4 亿	2.09%	30.00%	-0.47%	2	-6.71 亿	100.00%
PCB	高位分歧	236/236	-0.68%	+10.94%	-7.68%	-0.68%	+10.97%	-8.17%	-0.00%	28.81%	94.07%	2,612.7 亿	11.19%	50.00%	-0.47%	1	-44.88 亿	100.00%
先进封装	高位分歧	204/204	-0.73%	+10.93%	-13.67%	-0.73%	+11.15%	-14.09%	-0.00%	25.00%	87.25%	2,769.4 亿	11.86%	15.00%	-0.52%	1	-54.84 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	高位分歧	206/204	-0.91%	+11.79%	-15.18%	-0.93%	+11.82%	-15.23%	-0.02%	22.06%	82.35%	3,502.2 亿	14.99%	10.00%	-0.70%	1	-85.56 亿	100.00%
商业航天	高位分歧	507/507	-1.11%	+4.34%	-1.57%	-1.12%	+4.37%	-1.87%	-0.01%	19.72%	89.55%	3,064.7 亿	13.12%	45.00%	-0.89%	4	-105.6 亿	100.00%
酿酒	方向待明	31/30	-1.11%	-0.38%	+15.13%	-0.98%	+0.70%	+8.94%	+0.13%	13.33%	86.67%	122.2 亿	0.52%	15.00%	-0.90%	0	-5.69 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	高位分歧	43/43	-1.78%	+14.61%	-16.41%	-1.78%	+14.69%	-16.52%	-0.00%	9.30%	86.05%	556.2 亿	2.38%	65.00%	-1.56%	0	-28.05 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	高位分歧	34/34	-2.03%	+5.51%	-2.67%	-2.03%	+5.53%	-2.99%	-0.00%	11.76%	91.18%	96.19 亿	0.41%	60.00%	-1.82%	0	-5.38 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

MLCC · 趋势扩散

领涨：达利凯普（301566.SZ）+13.21%、双星新材（002585.SZ）+10.04%、洁美科技（002859.SZ）+10.00%

领跌：厦门钨业（600549.SH）-5.90%、贵研铂业（600459.SH）-4.59%、国瓷材料（300285.SZ）-4.24%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：斯菱智驱（301550.SZ）+20.00%、丰光精密（920510.BJ）+13.93%、瑞迪智驱（301596.SZ）+11.88%

领跌：晟楠科技（920006.BJ）-5.63%、盛帮股份（301233.SZ）-5.18%、东安动力（600178.SH）-4.04%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：万邦医药（301520.SZ）+20.00%、振东制药（300158.SZ）+14.26%、百花医药（600721.SH）+10.01%

领跌：塞力医疗（603716.SH）-4.98%、国发股份（600538.SH）-4.82%、贵研铂业（600459.SH）-4.59%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：斯菱智驱（301550.SZ）+20.00%、丰光精密（920510.BJ）+13.93%、瑞迪智驱（301596.SZ）+11.88%

领跌：芳源股份（688148.SH）-9.73%、超捷股份（301005.SZ）-8.75%、盛视科技（002990.SZ）-8.09%

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：华智数媒（300426.SZ）+20.00%、皇氏集团（002329.SZ）+10.09%、安妮股份（002235.SZ）+10.02%

领跌：盛达资源（000603.SZ）-6.92%、乐通股份（002319.SZ）-6.36%、中国科传（601858.SH）-4.95%

CPO · 高位分歧

领涨：武汉凡谷（002194.SZ）+10.00%、麦捷科技（300319.SZ）+7.62%、科翔股份（300903.SZ）+7.60%

领跌：斯瑞新材（688102.SH）-11.58%、华懋科技（603306.SH）-9.23%、汇绿生态（001267.SZ）-7.98%

液冷服务器 · 高位分歧

领涨：豪尔赛（002963.SZ）+10.02%、城地香江（603887.SH）+10.02%、汇通能源（600605.SH）+8.06%

领跌：腾龙股份（603158.SH）-9.84%、行云科技（300209.SZ）-9.04%、利通电子（603629.SH）-6.03%

玻璃基板 · 高位分歧

领涨：TCL科技（000100.SZ）+2.67%、力诺药包（301188.SZ）+2.53%、红星发展（600367.SH）+1.96%

领跌：精测电子（300567.SZ）-5.58%、德邦科技（688035.SH）-3.74%、博杰股份（002975.SZ）-3.24%

光刻胶 · 高位分歧

领涨：联合化学（301209.SZ）+15.04%、百合花（603823.SH）+10.00%、国风新材（000859.SZ）+9.97%

领跌：华懋科技（603306.SH）-9.23%、聚石化学（688669.SH）-5.35%、兴福电子（688545.SH）-4.26%

PCB · 高位分歧

领涨：洁美科技（002859.SZ）+10.00%、科翔股份（300903.SZ）+7.60%、立方控股（920130.BJ）+6.09%

领跌：景旺电子（603228.SH）-7.00%、锐翔智能（920178.BJ）-6.60%、中钨高新（000657.SZ）-6.39%

先进封装 · 高位分歧

领涨：太极实业（600667.SH）+10.02%、旭光电子（600353.SH）+7.69%、科翔股份（300903.SZ）+7.60%

领跌：展芯股份（301707.SZ）-9.61%、中微公司（688012.SH）-6.90%、光智科技（300489.SZ）-6.33%

存储芯片 · 高位分歧

领涨：太极实业（600667.SH）+10.02%、联芸科技（688449.SH）+9.99%、汇通能源（600605.SH）+8.06%

领跌：盛视科技（002990.SZ）-8.09%、中微公司（688012.SH）-6.90%、南亚新材（688519.SH）-5.95%

商业航天 · 高位分歧

领涨：蓝盾光电（300862.SZ）+19.99%、武汉凡谷（002194.SZ）+10.00%、北化股份（002246.SZ）+9.99%

领跌：斯瑞新材（688102.SH）-11.58%、天力复合（920576.BJ）-9.15%、超捷股份（301005.SZ）-8.75%

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：ST椰岛（600238.SH）+1.16%、金徽酒（603919.SH）+0.82%、*ST莫高（600543.SH）+0.76%

领跌：金种子酒（600199.SH）-2.72%、天佑德酒（002646.SZ）-2.22%、顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）-2.00%

电子化学品 · 高位分歧

领涨：菲沃泰（688371.SH）+2.58%、三孚新科（688359.SH）+1.02%、飞凯材料（300398.SZ）+0.49%

领跌：莱尔科技（688683.SH）-4.94%、中船特气（688146.SH）-4.36%、兴福电子（688545.SH）-4.26%

金属新材料 · 高位分歧

领涨：云路股份（688190.SH）+5.09%、铂科新材（300811.SZ）+3.01%、龙磁科技（300835.SZ）+2.99%

领跌：斯瑞新材（688102.SH）-11.58%、天力复合（920576.BJ）-9.15%、中科磁业（301141.SZ）-5.84%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

医药健康	52	+0.35%	+0.08%	+5.87%	+6.67%	80.71 亿	100.00%	3/47	银华中证创新药产业ETF · -0.07%
中小盘宽基	140	-0.04%	-0.14%	+4.57%	-3.24%	258.2 亿	100.00%	30/48	易方达创业板ETF · +1.28%
红利防御	97	-0.17%	-0.25%	-0.12%	+4.05%	46.77 亿	100.00%	13/46	广发中证全指电力公用事业ETF · -1.20%
金融地产	49	-0.49%	-0.45%	-0.92%	+0.14%	70.77 亿	100.00%	11/24	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · +0.27%
消费	46	-0.70%	-0.68%	+0.61%	+6.45%	21.77 亿	100.00%	11/22	鹏华中证酒ETF · -0.32%
大盘宽基	83	-0.75%	-0.67%	+1.41%	-0.60%	78.51 亿	100.00%	7/37	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · -0.15%
AI与半导体	129	-1.53%	-0.16%	+2.88%	-13.12%	419.5 亿	100.00%	49/44	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · +1.11%
资源周期	59	-4.09%	-4.36%	+6.09%	+6.71%	96.57 亿	100.00%	24/23	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · +1.22%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	536	+0.55%	+6.44%	+5.75%	42.54%	88.62%	8.72%	7	0
AI硬件与数字经济	电子、计算机、通信	999	+0.37%	+6.49%	-2.32%	33.73%	89.49%	39.67%	6	0
金融地产	房地产、银行、非银金融	216	-0.10%	+0.63%	+3.82%	29.17%	56.02%	2.85%	2	0
高端制造	机械设备、汽车、电力设备、国防军工	1485	-0.14%	+4.03%	+2.10%	29.63%	92.19%	19.25%	16	1
基建链	建筑装饰、建筑材料	231	-0.35%	+3.03%	+2.91%	30.74%	84.85%	2.70%	5	0
公用防御	公用事业、环保、交通运输	401	-0.39%	+1.54%	+5.23%	25.44%	74.81%	3.73%	5	0
大消费	商贸零售、家用电器、食品饮料、社会服务、农林牧渔	529	-0.68%	+2.43%	+7.07%	21.36%	91.30%	4.05%	2	1
资源周期	石油石化、煤炭、基础化工、钢铁、有色金属	717	-1.25%	+4.93%	+3.69%	17.71%	91.21%	15.57%	7	0

近五个交易日

2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6

边际变化

成交额：收缩 · -8.00%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -44.30%

涨停家数：压缩 · -43

最高连板：抬升 · 1

五日成交中位：2.5475 万亿 · 温度区间：46.3–84.1 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：MLCC 3次、电子化学品 3次、创新药 2次、PCB 1次、先进封装 1次、光刻胶 1次

行业：电子 4次、通信 2次、农林牧渔 1次、医药生物 1次、国防军工 1次、有色金属 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日-8.0%，上涨覆盖29.2%，五日成交中位25475.1亿元。

方向承接 · MLCC当日收益+1.79%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 机械设备涨停8家，最高2板。

负反馈 · 跌停2家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 25475.1亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · MLCC

确认：MLCC继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 15.5%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖29.2%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 30 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6

情绪九维 62.7

连板高度12.86
12.86
输入与公式
6 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数7.2
7.2
输入与公式
60 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.46
10.46
输入与公式
0.7407407407407407 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.21
6.21
输入与公式
0.1553398058252427 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价6.43
6.43
输入与公式
0.006788485148514852 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应3.6
3.6
输入与公式
{"limitDown":2,"largeLoss":35} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度4.37
4.37
输入与公式
0.29156887524823977 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比6.75
6.75
输入与公式
{"limitUp":60,"limitDown":2} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.84
4.84
输入与公式
0.9422168161184752 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	292	5.27%	+6.40%	+5.31%
趋势延续	714	12.89%	+1.24%	+1.00%
低位修复	128	2.31%	+10.55%	+0.71%
中间状态	4405	79.53%	-1.20%	-1.01%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 103 家 · 今日晋级 16 家 · 晋级率 15.53%

晋级名单

百花医药	600721.SH	医药生物	6	+10.01%
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	4	+10.02%
哈药股份	600664.SH	医药生物	3	+9.97%
秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	3	+9.97%
立新能源	001258.SZ	公用事业	2	+10.01%
国风新材	000859.SZ	基础化工	2	+9.97%
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	2	+9.99%
第一医药	600833.SH	医药生物	2	+9.99%
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	2	+10.00%
同力天启	605286.SH	机械设备	2	+10.00%
华东数控	002248.SZ	机械设备	2	+10.05%
皇氏集团	002329.SZ	食品饮料	2	+10.09%
联泰环保	603797.SH	环保	2	+10.02%
亚邦股份	603188.SH	基础化工	2	+9.91%
京投发展	600683.SH	房地产	2	+9.99%
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	2	+19.99%
太极实业	600667.SH	建筑装饰	1	+10.02%
百合花	603823.SH	基础化工	1	+10.00%
洁美科技	002859.SZ	电子	1	+10.00%
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	1	+10.03%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	7	1	3	3	14.29%	42.86%	42.86%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	7	1	3	3	14.29%	42.86%	42.86%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

共 16 条假设

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 待结算

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 待结算

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 待结算

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 待结算

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认 · 今日结算

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

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确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认 · 今日结算

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认 · 今日结算

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

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确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

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确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认 · 今日结算

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

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确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:02:38.152339+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。