历史详情 · A 股观测台

2026-08-10

结论与证据

全A收盘为4068家上涨、1391家下跌，上涨占比73.46%；成交2.5387万亿元，环比-5.39%。单日广度明显扩张，89.9%样本位于MA20上方；103家封板、6家跌停，广度与涨停生态相互印证。这确认了当日扩张，但持续性仍需下一交易日验证。

广度扩张 · 量能收缩 · MA20上方90% · 103家封板 · 温度71.3

支持证据

16方向中酿酒当日+2.05%居前；121家触板、封板率85.1%，最高5板。

反证与边界

通信当日等权-0.71%，玻璃基板方向-1.41%；成交额环比-5.39%，资金流分类代理-414.7亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.5387 万亿
成交环比: -5.39%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 4068 / 1391 / 79
上涨覆盖: 73.46%
中位涨幅: +1.26%
MA20上方: 89.87%
20日新高 / 新低: 1834 / 23
涨停 / 跌停: 103 / 6
触板 / 未封: 121 / 18
封板率: 85.12%
最高连板: 5 板

收盘温度 71.3

广度25.71
25.71
输入与公式
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趋势17.97
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态14.17
14.17
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
指数10
10
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 74.4

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数12
12
输入与公式
103.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率12
12
输入与公式
0.85 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.93
6.93
输入与公式
0.17 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价10.39
10.39
输入与公式
0.02 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应1.8
1.8
输入与公式
{"limitDown":6,"largeLoss":32} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.73 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比5.62
5.62
输入与公式
{"limitUp":103,"limitDown":6} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能5.97
5.97
输入与公式
1.00 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,966.59	+0.67%	1.1669 万亿
科创50	1,737.77	-0.36%	1,284.7 亿
深证成指	14,316.96	+0.04%	7,907.9 亿
创业板指	3,537.21	-0.73%	3,210.2 亿
中证1000	7,733.90	+0.71%	5,299.0 亿
国证2000	10,058.63	+0.88%	7,153.9 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	656	11.85%	+6.06%	+4.93%
趋势延续	1525	27.54%	+1.87%	+1.76%
低位修复	262	4.73%	+1.04%	+0.72%
中间状态	3095	55.89%	+0.14%	+0.25%

三项风险

普涨后的广度持续性尚未确认

上涨占比73.46%、中位数涨幅+1.26%；单日扩张不等同连续扩张。

少数方向逆势承压

电子、通信分别为+0.12%、-0.71%。

缩量与炸板共同降温

成交额环比-5.39%，121家触板中18家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度扩张能否延续

上涨占比继续高于50%，且MA20上方比例不显著低于今日89.9%。

酿酒强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

玻璃基板弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日85.1%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,966.59 · MA5 3,901.54 · MA10 3,859.61 · MA20 3,862.11

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,862.11 · 近10日最低 3,767.50 · 近20日最低 3,741.11；压力：近10日最高 3,967.59 · 近20日最高 3,981.67

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-02-09	4,103.54	4,123.16	4,093.06	4,123.09	+1.41%
2026-02-10	4,127.77	4,134.34	4,117.56	4,128.37	+0.13%
2026-02-11	4,124.43	4,142.56	4,122.43	4,131.99	+0.09%
2026-02-12	4,136.99	4,140.59	4,124.13	4,134.02	+0.05%
2026-02-13	4,115.92	4,123.84	4,079.77	4,082.07	-1.26%
2026-02-24	4,129.13	4,131.55	4,105.94	4,117.41	+0.87%
2026-02-25	4,123.78	4,167.84	4,122.70	4,147.23	+0.72%
2026-02-26	4,151.07	4,152.19	4,127.15	4,146.63	-0.01%
2026-02-27	4,128.90	4,166.23	4,128.36	4,162.88	+0.39%
2026-03-02	4,151.80	4,188.77	4,131.37	4,182.59	+0.47%
2026-03-03	4,189.41	4,197.23	4,116.01	4,122.68	-1.43%
2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

农林牧渔	趋势扩散	114	+3.07%	+4.44%	+8.87%	+2.88%	93.86%	99.12%	223.7 亿	0.88%	3	0	39.03	2.42
食品饮料	修复延续	126	+3.01%	+2.13%	+9.91%	+2.60%	95.24%	92.06%	428.5 亿	1.69%	5	0	26.58	2.29
纺织服饰	趋势扩散	108	+2.66%	+5.07%	+7.82%	+2.80%	87.04%	89.81%	143.2 亿	0.56%	4	2	30.55	1.97
轻工制造	趋势扩散	167	+2.38%	+5.65%	+7.17%	+2.09%	85.63%	92.81%	173.0 亿	0.68%	7	0	30.62	2.18
有色金属	趋势扩散	145	+2.23%	+13.36%	+12.08%	+2.05%	77.93%	100.00%	2,011.7 亿	7.92%	4	0	37.50	3.46
环保	趋势扩散	134	+2.20%	+5.10%	+5.69%	+2.21%	91.04%	91.79%	176.8 亿	0.70%	2	0	30.39	2.00
商贸零售	修复延续	100	+2.16%	+2.71%	+9.71%	+2.22%	90.00%	94.00%	159.1 亿	0.63%	1	0	31.91	1.93
社会服务	趋势扩散	86	+2.12%	+4.39%	+13.43%	+2.25%	90.70%	97.67%	126.3 亿	0.50%	1	0	37.48	2.92
煤炭	趋势扩散	33	+2.05%	+6.19%	+13.97%	+2.11%	93.94%	96.97%	132.0 亿	0.52%	0	0	22.97	1.28
房地产	修复延续	95	+2.03%	+2.93%	+8.31%	+2.16%	87.37%	92.63%	154.6 亿	0.61%	2	0	36.08	1.17
国防军工	趋势扩散	141	+2.00%	+7.27%	+1.79%	+1.69%	81.56%	97.87%	645.7 亿	2.54%	3	0	85.00	3.82
综合	修复延续	20	+1.91%	+1.81%	+6.61%	+1.86%	95.00%	95.00%	29.98 亿	0.12%	0	0	48.74	2.90
基础化工	趋势扩散	448	+1.88%	+7.42%	+5.83%	+1.81%	80.80%	94.20%	1,294.6 亿	5.10%	13	0	37.41	2.28
美容护理	趋势扩散	31	+1.86%	+3.20%	+10.24%	+1.92%	87.10%	90.32%	48.36 亿	0.19%	0	0	28.27	2.40
石油石化	趋势扩散	48	+1.68%	+3.15%	+9.27%	+1.54%	77.08%	89.58%	159.8 亿	0.63%	1	0	39.63	2.09
建筑材料	趋势扩散	76	+1.60%	+6.31%	+5.04%	+1.69%	76.32%	93.42%	421.6 亿	1.66%	2	1	45.61	1.65
交通运输	低位修复	128	+1.57%	-0.06%	+6.13%	+1.36%	86.72%	71.88%	197.6 亿	0.78%	1	0	17.79	1.40
公用事业	修复延续	139	+1.50%	+1.49%	+10.69%	+1.20%	81.29%	78.42%	487.6 亿	1.92%	4	0	27.73	1.64
传媒	趋势扩散	131	+1.49%	+3.28%	+11.60%	+1.47%	77.86%	95.42%	539.6 亿	2.13%	3	0	41.64	3.09
医药生物	趋势扩散	504	+1.46%	+8.63%	+7.97%	+1.02%	71.43%	89.09%	2,119.8 亿	8.35%	14	1	39.53	2.51
家用电器	趋势扩散	103	+1.43%	+4.56%	+4.98%	+1.42%	76.70%	92.23%	190.4 亿	0.75%	1	0	41.43	2.56
汽车	趋势扩散	321	+1.36%	+4.01%	+4.77%	+1.30%	75.39%	90.03%	586.2 亿	2.31%	4	0	30.87	2.46
建筑装饰	趋势扩散	155	+1.31%	+4.03%	+4.98%	+1.39%	78.71%	84.52%	278.0 亿	1.10%	2	1	33.13	1.98
钢铁	低位修复	43	+1.30%	-0.43%	+8.40%	+1.12%	81.40%	81.40%	79.95 亿	0.31%	0	0	20.34	1.18
电力设备	趋势扩散	415	+1.18%	+5.31%	+5.53%	+1.01%	72.05%	94.94%	1,810.0 亿	7.13%	7	0	46.49	2.85
机械设备	趋势扩散	608	+0.98%	+8.56%	+2.34%	+1.09%	68.75%	92.27%	1,692.0 亿	6.66%	7	0	50.08	3.16
非银金融	低位修复	79	+0.64%	-1.16%	+2.40%	+0.36%	74.68%	49.37%	328.7 亿	1.29%	1	0	18.99	1.26
银行	低位修复	42	+0.57%	-4.15%	+2.62%	+0.42%	78.57%	35.71%	248.0 亿	0.98%	0	0	6.05	0.54
计算机	趋势扩散	356	+0.34%	+5.32%	+8.40%	+0.40%	58.15%	94.38%	1,265.1 亿	4.98%	3	0	81.72	3.64
电子	方向待明	515	+0.12%	+16.73%	-8.26%	-0.23%	45.44%	82.52%	7,166.1 亿	28.23%	8	1	87.10	5.08
通信	高位分歧	127	-0.71%	+10.11%	+0.55%	-0.34%	43.31%	89.76%	2,069.2 亿	8.15%	0	0	101.90	4.61

涨停生态

首板 90 家 · 多板 13 家 · 昨日涨停 75 家 · 今日晋级 13 家 · 晋级率 17.33%

5 板 · 2 家 · 宝鼎科技、百花医药

3 板 · 2 家 · 高争民爆、开开实业

2 板 · 9 家 · 招金黄金、百普赛斯、誉衡药业、先导基电、哈药股份、哈三联、毕得医药、瑞康医药

1 板 · 90 家 · 莲花控股、翔鹭钨业、立新能源、风范股份、儒意电影、圣阳股份、贤丰控股、金牛化工

行业聚类

医药生物 · 14 家 · 最高 5 板 · 百花医药、开开实业、百普赛斯、誉衡药业、哈药股份、哈三联

基础化工 · 13 家 · 最高 3 板 · 高争民爆、金牛化工、佛塑科技、艾艾精工、宿迁联盛、赤天化

电子 · 8 家 · 最高 5 板 · 宝鼎科技、先导基电、贤丰控股、华亚智能、信濠光电、新亚制程

机械设备 · 7 家 · 最高 1 板 · 厦工股份、*ST威领、华东数控、建设机械、海鸥股份、同力天启

电力设备 · 7 家 · 最高 1 板 · 风范股份、圣阳股份、三变科技、太阳电缆、长城电工、信通电子

轻工制造 · 7 家 · 最高 1 板 · 爱丽家居、天安新材、宜宾纸业、恒丰纸业、源飞宠物、三柏硕

食品饮料 · 5 家 · 最高 1 板 · 莲花控股、一鸣食品、皇氏集团、金达威、香飘飘

公用事业 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 立新能源、绿发电力、百通能源、新中港

有色金属 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 招金黄金、翔鹭钨业、华钰矿业、鹏欣资源

汽车 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 秦安股份、湖南天雁、上海沿浦、科华控股

纺织服饰 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 潮宏基、飞亚达、云中马、ST如意

传媒 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 儒意电影、北投科技、北京文化

农林牧渔 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 益生股份、百洋股份、邦基科技

国防军工 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 长城军工、北方长龙、洪都航空

计算机 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 石基信息、中电鑫龙、榕基软件

建筑材料 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 西藏天路、华立股份

建筑装饰 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 鸿路钢构、江河集团

房地产 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 金科股份、京投发展

环保 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 江南水务、联泰环保

交通运输 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 海通发展

商贸零售 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 大东方

家用电器 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · *ST帅电

石油石化 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 贝肯能源

社会服务 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华天酒店

非银金融 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 仁东控股

连续晋级与首板

宝鼎科技	002552.SZ	电子	+10.00%	5	12.35 亿	主板	92500	101651	3	6/7	1.30 亿
百花医药	600721.SH	医药生物	+9.96%	5	5,932.52 万	主板	92503	92503	0	5/5	4.49 亿
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	+10.01%	3	7.82 亿	主板	95842	100433	3	6/9	2,767.19 万
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	+10.02%	3	8,425.46 万	主板	92501	92501	0	3/3	6,747.97 万
招金黄金	000506.SZ	有色金属	+9.98%	2	22.95 亿	主板	135339	135339	0	2/2	3,859.00 万
百普赛斯	301080.SZ	医药生物	+20.00%	2	22.65 亿	创业板	93000	145021	30	2/2	357.19 万
誉衡药业	002437.SZ	医药生物	+9.94%	2	15.68 亿	主板	93012	143939	15	2/2	569.41 万
先导基电	600641.SH	电子	+10.01%	2	9.91 亿	主板	93243	93243	0	2/2	1.62 亿
哈药股份	600664.SH	医药生物	+9.94%	2	9.90 亿	主板	92502	132059	1	2/2	3.17 亿
哈三联	002900.SZ	医药生物	+10.01%	2	8.83 亿	主板	93018	142854	12	3/5	585.79 万
毕得医药	688073.SH	医药生物	+20.00%	2	7.61 亿	科创板	95246	140507	5	2/2	1,733.58 万
瑞康医药	002589.SZ	医药生物	+9.87%	2	5.57 亿	主板	94100	94100	0	2/2	1.04 亿
秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	+10.02%	2	1.24 亿	主板	93152	93152	0	2/2	3,738.11 万
莲花控股	600186.SH	食品饮料	+10.01%	1	28.73 亿	主板	142630	142630	0	1/1	2.00 亿
翔鹭钨业	002842.SZ	有色金属	+10.01%	1	25.35 亿	主板	141109	141109	0	2/4	1.49 亿
立新能源	001258.SZ	公用事业	+10.03%	1	25.20 亿	主板	93142	111615	8	1/1	8,152.53 万
风范股份	601700.SH	电力设备	+9.94%	1	18.80 亿	主板	93639	145033	11	5/6	523.99 万
儒意电影	002739.SZ	传媒	+9.97%	1	18.66 亿	主板	130915	130915	0	1/1	1.21 亿
圣阳股份	002580.SZ	电力设备	+10.01%	1	18.49 亿	主板	134703	135236	1	1/1	1.61 亿
贤丰控股	002141.SZ	电子	+9.98%	1	16.06 亿	主板	95906	101418	1	1/1	1.00 亿

晋级未完成（最多16只）

沃格光电	603773.SH	电子	+0.59%	32.82 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
汇绿生态	001267.SZ	通信	+0.66%	27.95 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
云南锗业	002428.SZ	有色金属	+2.50%	137.9 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
和远气体	002971.SZ	基础化工	-2.20%	16.98 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
有研新材	600206.SH	电子	+8.01%	81.11 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
武汉凡谷	002194.SZ	通信	-9.91%	9.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
锴威特	688693.SH	电子	-8.76%	7.80 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
通宇通讯	002792.SZ	通信	-8.31%	31.65 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
景旺电子	603228.SH	电子	+1.11%	100.2 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
方正科技	600601.SH	电子	+2.72%	54.78 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
宁夏建材	600449.SH	建筑材料	-10.00%	4,835.49 万	主板	—	92504	0	—	3.19 亿
金发拉比	002762.SZ	纺织服饰	-9.99%	6,582.97 万	主板	—	93100	0	—	4,108.32 万
光迅科技	002281.SZ	通信	-7.64%	142.0 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
宏昌科技	301008.SZ	家用电器	-7.51%	7.53 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
欧克科技	001223.SZ	机械设备	-5.39%	2.31 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
福莱特	601865.SH	电力设备	-4.85%	7.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

金一文化	002721.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.06%	10.68 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
ST联光	600363.SH	电子	-10.00%	8.46 亿	主板	—	93734	0	—	4.43 亿
金发拉比	002762.SZ	纺织服饰	-9.99%	6,582.97 万	主板	—	93100	0	—	4,108.32 万
宁夏建材	600449.SH	建筑材料	-10.00%	4,835.49 万	主板	—	92504	0	—	3.19 亿
宝莱特	300246.SZ	医药生物	-19.99%	3,874.54 万	创业板	—	92500	0	—	2.37 亿
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.96%	3,048.70 万	主板	—	92500	0	—	1.17 亿

大跌样本

宝莱特	300246.SZ	医药生物	-19.99%	3,874.54 万	创业板	—	92500	0	—	2.37 亿
德迈仕	301007.SZ	汽车	-12.99%	3.52 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
盈建科	300935.SZ	计算机	-11.13%	2.80 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金一文化	002721.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.06%	10.68 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
ST联光	600363.SH	电子	-10.00%	8.46 亿	主板	—	93734	0	—	4.43 亿
宁夏建材	600449.SH	建筑材料	-10.00%	4,835.49 万	主板	—	92504	0	—	3.19 亿
金发拉比	002762.SZ	纺织服饰	-9.99%	6,582.97 万	主板	—	93100	0	—	4,108.32 万
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.96%	3,048.70 万	主板	—	92500	0	—	1.17 亿
武汉凡谷	002194.SZ	通信	-9.91%	9.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
朗科科技	300042.SZ	计算机	-9.66%	16.61 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
名家汇	300506.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.56%	5.06 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
杰恩股份	300668.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.47%	3.11 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

百普赛斯	301080.SZ	医药生物	+20.00%	2	22.65 亿	创业板	93000	145021	30	2/2	357.19 万
毕得医药	688073.SH	医药生物	+20.00%	2	7.61 亿	科创板	95246	140507	5	2/2	1,733.58 万
北方长龙	301357.SZ	国防军工	+20.00%	1	12.04 亿	创业板	145527	145527	0	1/1	4,157.81 万
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+19.99%	1	2,008.51 万	创业板	92500	92500	0	1/1	10.76 亿
信濠光电	301051.SZ	电子	+19.98%	1	5.25 亿	创业板	134151	141915	1	1/1	2,999.89 万
近岸蛋白	688137.SH	医药生物	+17.51%	0	4.35 亿	科创板	94650	—	6	1/2	—
海正生材	688203.SH	基础化工	+17.36%	0	1.50 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
晶华微	688130.SH	电子	+17.36%	0	2.19 亿	科创板	143605	—	2	0/0	—
海达尔	920699.BJ	家用电器	+15.58%	0	2.13 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
科力装备	301552.SZ	汽车	+15.52%	0	1.67 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
中能电气	300062.SZ	电力设备	+15.43%	0	8.99 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
华大智造	688114.SH	医药生物	+14.51%	0	12.33 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—

跌幅居前

宝莱特	300246.SZ	医药生物	-19.99%	3,874.54 万	创业板	—	92500	0	—	2.37 亿
德迈仕	301007.SZ	汽车	-12.99%	3.52 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
盈建科	300935.SZ	计算机	-11.13%	2.80 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金一文化	002721.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.06%	10.68 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
ST联光	600363.SH	电子	-10.00%	8.46 亿	主板	—	93734	0	—	4.43 亿
宁夏建材	600449.SH	建筑材料	-10.00%	4,835.49 万	主板	—	92504	0	—	3.19 亿
金发拉比	002762.SZ	纺织服饰	-9.99%	6,582.97 万	主板	—	93100	0	—	4,108.32 万
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.96%	3,048.70 万	主板	—	92500	0	—	1.17 亿
武汉凡谷	002194.SZ	通信	-9.91%	9.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
朗科科技	300042.SZ	计算机	-9.66%	16.61 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
名家汇	300506.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.56%	5.06 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
杰恩股份	300668.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.47%	3.11 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3194	+1.72%	80.24%	88.10%	+1.83%
创业板	1399	+1.24%	69.98%	94.64%	+3.15%
科创板	612	+0.41%	54.90%	86.60%	+2.32%
北交所	333	+0.26%	57.06%	92.79%	+2.15%

市值分层

小盘	2770	+1.86%	80.58%	33.38 亿
中盘	1661	+0.96%	68.15%	94.19 亿
大盘	831	+0.80%	64.14%	287.5 亿
超大盘	276	+0.45%	61.96%	1,371.9 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

酿酒	低位修复	31/30	+2.05%	-0.13%	+16.98%	+2.24%	+0.79%	+10.89%	+0.18%	100.00%	100.00%	211.5 亿	0.83%	75.00%	+0.69%	0	0	9.19 亿	100.00%
MLCC	趋势扩散	35/35	+1.65%	+17.66%	—	+1.65%	+17.46%	-3.05%	-0.00%	60.00%	94.29%	779.8 亿	3.07%	90.00%	+0.29%	1	0	-2.05 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/197	+1.53%	+4.02%	+10.53%	+1.53%	+4.03%	+10.13%	+0.00%	76.65%	94.42%	643.1 亿	2.53%	70.00%	+0.17%	4	0	4.63 亿	100.00%
创新药	趋势扩散	281/280	+1.23%	+9.05%	+6.26%	+1.23%	+9.29%	+5.81%	+0.00%	68.21%	87.50%	1,582.8 亿	6.23%	90.00%	-0.14%	8	0	-27.46 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	趋势扩散	80/80	+1.06%	+17.99%	-7.17%	+1.01%	+18.13%	-8.27%	-0.04%	57.50%	88.75%	571.8 亿	2.25%	50.00%	-0.31%	1	0	2.70 亿	100.00%
商业航天	趋势扩散	507/507	+0.52%	+8.52%	-0.93%	+0.53%	+8.73%	-1.19%	+0.01%	64.10%	91.72%	3,525.5 亿	13.89%	75.00%	-0.84%	2	1	-117.3 亿	100.00%
减速器	趋势扩散	139/139	+0.50%	+5.47%	+2.37%	+0.50%	+5.50%	+2.05%	+0.00%	58.27%	93.53%	395.2 亿	1.56%	40.00%	-0.87%	1	0	-16.39 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	趋势扩散	34/34	+0.47%	+10.96%	+1.24%	+0.47%	+11.17%	+0.93%	-0.00%	55.88%	100.00%	111.7 亿	0.44%	80.00%	-0.90%	0	0	-9,001.72 万	100.00%
存储芯片	方向待明	206/204	+0.26%	+19.59%	-13.53%	+0.27%	+19.91%	-13.76%	+0.01%	46.57%	77.45%	4,149.0 亿	16.34%	25.00%	-1.10%	1	0	-83.51 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/462	+0.15%	+7.69%	-0.18%	+0.15%	+7.94%	-0.60%	-0.00%	51.73%	89.18%	2,949.1 亿	11.62%	45.00%	-1.21%	4	0	-138.2 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	高位分歧	229/229	-0.25%	+10.94%	-3.30%	-0.24%	+11.10%	-3.57%	+0.01%	46.72%	82.97%	2,765.2 亿	10.89%	45.00%	-1.61%	2	0	-179.7 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	高位分歧	43/43	-0.39%	+24.34%	-12.42%	-0.39%	+24.55%	-12.44%	+0.00%	32.56%	86.05%	652.4 亿	2.57%	90.00%	-1.76%	0	0	3.35 亿	100.00%
先进封装	高位分歧	204/204	-0.43%	+18.51%	-11.80%	-0.43%	+18.92%	-12.33%	-0.00%	41.67%	81.86%	3,365.8 亿	13.26%	50.00%	-1.79%	0	0	-79.17 亿	100.00%
PCB	高位分歧	236/236	-0.63%	+18.03%	-3.21%	-0.63%	+18.36%	-3.81%	+0.00%	36.44%	92.37%	3,226.1 亿	12.71%	95.00%	-1.99%	3	0	-136.2 亿	100.00%
CPO	高位分歧	212/212	-1.26%	+17.02%	-7.05%	-1.26%	+17.15%	-7.47%	-0.00%	29.25%	84.43%	5,079.4 亿	20.01%	55.00%	-2.62%	0	0	-302.1 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	高位分歧	57/57	-1.41%	+16.05%	-10.35%	-1.31%	+16.62%	-10.09%	+0.10%	28.07%	82.46%	856.3 亿	3.37%	25.00%	-2.77%	0	0	-49.94 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

酿酒 · 低位修复

领涨：迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）+8.45%、天佑德酒（002646.SZ）+6.03%、古井贡酒（000596.SZ）+5.32%

领跌：

MLCC · 趋势扩散

领涨：国风新材（000859.SZ）+10.05%、昀冢科技（688260.SH）+8.01%、国瓷材料（300285.SZ）+7.38%

领跌：昊志机电（300503.SZ）-3.02%、商络电子（300975.SZ）-1.88%、凯盛科技（600552.SH）-1.87%

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：皇氏集团（002329.SZ）+10.16%、北京文化（000802.SZ）+10.07%、北投科技（600936.SH）+10.00%

领跌：大晟文化（600892.SH）-7.28%、凯撒文化（002425.SZ）-4.89%、中文在线（300364.SZ）-4.67%

创新药 · 趋势扩散

领涨：百普赛斯（301080.SZ）+20.00%、海普瑞（002399.SZ）+10.04%、亚太药业（002370.SZ）+10.04%

领跌：峆一药业（920478.BJ）-4.92%、维康药业（300878.SZ）-4.51%、热景生物（688068.SH）-3.78%

光刻胶 · 趋势扩散

领涨：国风新材（000859.SZ）+10.05%、华懋科技（603306.SH）+6.81%、达威股份（300535.SZ）+6.53%

领跌：安达智能（688125.SH）-3.45%、胜科纳米（688757.SH）-3.43%、宝丽迪（300905.SZ）-3.05%

商业航天 · 趋势扩散

领涨：蓝盾光电（300862.SZ）+19.99%、飞亚达（000026.SZ）+9.98%、和顺电气（300141.SZ）+8.41%

领跌：ST联光（600363.SH）-10.00%、武汉凡谷（002194.SZ）-9.91%、嘉立创（001232.SZ）-9.17%

减速器 · 趋势扩散

领涨：金道科技（301279.SZ）+12.31%、飞亚达（000026.SZ）+9.98%、盛帮股份（301233.SZ）+7.73%

领跌：德迈仕（301007.SZ）-12.99%、宏昌科技（301008.SZ）-7.51%、丰光精密（920510.BJ）-6.38%

金属新材料 · 趋势扩散

领涨：上大股份（301522.SZ）+6.48%、华达新材（605158.SH）+4.96%、合金投资（000633.SZ）+3.68%

领跌：族兴新材（920078.BJ）-3.40%、悦安新材（688786.SH）-3.10%、银河磁体（300127.SZ）-2.92%

存储芯片 · 方向待明

领涨：盛美上海（688082.SH）+12.16%、先导基电（600641.SH）+10.01%、托伦斯（301583.SZ）+9.73%

领跌：朗科科技（300042.SZ）-9.66%、炬光科技（688167.SH）-8.16%、翱捷科技（688220.SH）-7.03%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：维峰电子（301328.SZ）+13.28%、金道科技（301279.SZ）+12.31%、秦安股份（603758.SH）+10.02%

领跌：德迈仕（301007.SZ）-12.99%、嘉立创（001232.SZ）-9.17%、宏昌科技（301008.SZ）-7.51%

液冷服务器 · 高位分歧

领涨：锐新科技（300828.SZ）+11.86%、圣阳股份（002580.SZ）+10.01%、海鸥股份（603269.SH）+9.99%

领跌：光迅科技（002281.SZ）-7.64%、中际旭创（300308.SZ）-6.01%、通源环境（688679.SH）-5.61%

电子化学品 · 高位分歧

领涨：国瓷材料（300285.SZ）+7.38%、兴福电子（688545.SH）+5.30%、中船特气（688146.SH）+2.94%

领跌：唯特偶（301319.SZ）-5.04%、天承科技（688603.SH）-5.04%、莱特光电（688150.SH）-4.51%

先进封装 · 高位分歧

领涨：盛美上海（688082.SH）+12.16%、托伦斯（301583.SZ）+9.73%、天和防务（300397.SZ）+8.48%

领跌：炬光科技（688167.SH）-8.16%、芯原股份（688521.SH）-7.70%、光迅科技（002281.SZ）-7.64%

PCB · 高位分歧

领涨：信通电子（001388.SZ）+10.00%、宝鼎科技（002552.SZ）+10.00%、贤丰控股（002141.SZ）+9.98%

领跌：嘉立创（001232.SZ）-9.17%、泰金新能（688813.SH）-8.37%、威尔高（301251.SZ）-7.92%

CPO · 高位分歧

领涨：国瓷材料（300285.SZ）+7.38%、华懋科技（603306.SH）+6.81%、风华高科（000636.SZ）+5.85%

领跌：武汉凡谷（002194.SZ）-9.91%、泰金新能（688813.SH）-8.37%、通宇通讯（002792.SZ）-8.31%

玻璃基板 · 高位分歧

领涨：亚玛顿（002623.SZ）+7.59%、精测电子（300567.SZ）+5.25%、三峡新材（600293.SH）+3.25%

领跌：力诺药包（301188.SZ）-8.88%、戈碧迦（920438.BJ）-7.61%、东威科技（688700.SH）-5.96%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

资源周期	59	+2.05%	+1.73%	+12.94%	+18.17%	82.55 亿	100.00%	12/35	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · +0.71%
消费	46	+1.27%	+2.07%	+0.97%	+6.97%	30.55 亿	100.00%	11/18	鹏华中证酒ETF · -0.73%
医药健康	52	+1.25%	+1.19%	+7.99%	+8.91%	107.7 亿	100.00%	7/39	银华中证创新药产业ETF · -2.41%
红利防御	97	+0.81%	+0.69%	-1.32%	+5.41%	56.49 亿	100.00%	11/56	华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF · -2.68%
AI与半导体	129	+0.76%	-1.08%	+7.61%	-11.47%	460.0 亿	100.00%	58/51	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · -0.53%
大盘宽基	83	+0.50%	+0.27%	+3.13%	+2.11%	80.37 亿	100.00%	2/40	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · -1.06%
金融地产	49	+0.43%	+0.36%	-0.57%	+1.36%	60.71 亿	100.00%	9/27	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · -0.03%
中小盘宽基	140	-0.18%	+0.15%	+8.06%	-1.31%	302.5 亿	100.00%	11/62	易方达创业板ETF · -2.29%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

大消费	农林牧渔、食品饮料、商贸零售、社会服务、家用电器	529	+2.41%	+3.58%	+9.26%	89.60%	94.90%	4.44%	11	0
资源周期	有色金属、煤炭、基础化工、石油石化、钢铁	717	+1.91%	+7.81%	+7.85%	80.61%	94.42%	14.49%	18	0
公用防御	环保、交通运输、公用事业	401	+1.76%	+2.20%	+7.56%	86.28%	80.80%	3.40%	7	0
医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	535	+1.48%	+8.32%	+8.11%	72.34%	89.16%	8.54%	14	1
基建链	建筑材料、建筑装饰	231	+1.41%	+4.78%	+5.00%	77.92%	87.45%	2.76%	4	2
金融地产	房地产、非银金融、银行	216	+1.24%	+0.06%	+5.04%	81.02%	65.74%	2.88%	3	0
高端制造	国防军工、汽车、电力设备、机械设备	1485	+1.21%	+6.54%	+3.71%	72.32%	93.06%	18.65%	21	0
AI硬件与数字经济	计算机、电子、通信	998	+0.09%	+11.82%	-1.20%	49.70%	87.68%	41.36%	11	1

近五个交易日

2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5

边际变化

成交额：收缩 · -5.39%

上涨覆盖：扩大 · +21.86%

涨停家数：扩张 · 28

最高连板：抬升 · 1

五日成交中位：2.5475 万亿 · 温度区间：62.4–84.1 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：电子化学品 4次、MLCC 2次、先进封装 2次、CPO 1次、PCB 1次、光刻胶 1次

行业：电子 4次、通信 3次、农林牧渔 1次、医药生物 1次、国防军工 1次、有色金属 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日-5.4%，上涨覆盖73.5%，五日成交中位25475.1亿元。

方向承接 · 酿酒当日收益+2.05%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 医药生物涨停14家，最高5板。

负反馈 · 跌停6家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 25475.1亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 酿酒

确认：酿酒继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 17.3%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖73.5%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 29 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5

情绪九维 74.4

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数12
12
输入与公式
103 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率12
12
输入与公式
0.8512396694214877 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.93
6.93
输入与公式
0.17333333333333334 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价10.39
10.39
输入与公式
0.023271306666666672 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应1.8
1.8
输入与公式
{"limitDown":6,"largeLoss":32} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.7345612134344529 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比5.62
5.62
输入与公式
{"limitUp":103,"limitDown":6} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能5.97
5.97
输入与公式
0.9982698500097728 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	656	11.85%	+6.06%	+4.93%
趋势延续	1525	27.54%	+1.87%	+1.76%
低位修复	262	4.73%	+1.04%	+0.72%
中间状态	3095	55.89%	+0.14%	+0.25%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 75 家 · 今日晋级 13 家 · 晋级率 17.33%

晋级名单

宝鼎科技	002552.SZ	电子	5	+10.00%
百花医药	600721.SH	医药生物	5	+9.96%
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	3	+10.01%
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	3	+10.02%
招金黄金	000506.SZ	有色金属	2	+9.98%
百普赛斯	301080.SZ	医药生物	2	+20.00%
誉衡药业	002437.SZ	医药生物	2	+9.94%
先导基电	600641.SH	电子	2	+10.01%
哈药股份	600664.SH	医药生物	2	+9.94%
哈三联	002900.SZ	医药生物	2	+10.01%
毕得医药	688073.SH	医药生物	2	+20.00%
瑞康医药	002589.SZ	医药生物	2	+9.87%
秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	2	+10.02%
莲花控股	600186.SH	食品饮料	1	+10.01%
翔鹭钨业	002842.SZ	有色金属	1	+10.01%
立新能源	001258.SZ	公用事业	1	+10.03%
风范股份	601700.SH	电力设备	1	+9.94%
儒意电影	002739.SZ	传媒	1	+9.97%
圣阳股份	002580.SZ	电力设备	1	+10.01%
贤丰控股	002141.SZ	电子	1	+9.98%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	3	1	2	33.33%	66.67%	0.00%
强势方向延续	0	0	0	—	—	—
弱势方向修复	0	0	0	—	—	—
方向剪刀差	0	0	0	—	—	—
涨停生态	0	0	0	—	—	—
市场持续性	0	0	0	—	—	—

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	3	1	2	0	33.33%	66.67%	0.00%

共 12 条假设

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算 · 今日生成

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算 · 今日生成

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

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确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

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确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

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确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算 · 今日生成

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算

午后流动性收缩是否延续

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确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算 · 今日生成

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

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确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 待结算 · 今日生成

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

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确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认 · 今日结算

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

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确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认 · 今日结算

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

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确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认 · 今日结算

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

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确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:02:33.708238+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。