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2026-08-13

结论与证据

全A收盘为1143家上涨、4317家下跌，上涨占比20.63%；成交2.5680万亿元，环比+18.49%。单日广度显著转弱，但85.5%样本仍站在MA20上方，同时有62家封板、4家跌停，更接近结构分歧，而不是所有趋势同步失效。

广度承压 · 量能扩张 · MA20上方86% · 62家封板 · 温度53.4

支持证据

16方向中创新药当日+1.78%居前；102家触板、封板率60.8%，最高5板。

反证与边界

有色金属当日等权-2.81%，MLCC方向-2.57%；成交额环比+18.49%，资金流分类代理-449.6亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.5680 万亿
成交环比: +18.49%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 1143 / 4317 / 80
上涨覆盖: 20.63%
中位涨幅: -1.48%
MA20上方: 85.54%
20日新高 / 新低: 632 / 105
涨停 / 跌停: 62 / 4
触板 / 未封: 102 / 40
封板率: 60.78%
最高连板: 5 板

收盘温度 53.4

广度7.22
7.22
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势17.11
17.11
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态14.09
14.09
输入与公式
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量能15
15
输入与公式
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指数0
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 61.8

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数7.44
7.44
输入与公式
62.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率8.58
8.58
输入与公式
0.61 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率9.07
9.07
输入与公式
0.23 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价7.44
7.44
输入与公式
0.01 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应2.7
2.7
输入与公式
{"limitDown":4,"largeLoss":36} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度3.09
3.09
输入与公式
0.21 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比5.74
5.74
输入与公式
{"limitUp":62,"limitDown":4} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能6.98
6.98
输入与公式
1.05 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,926.96	-0.50%	1.1642 万亿
科创50	1,717.75	-1.11%	1,256.8 亿
深证成指	14,289.44	-0.87%	7,813.3 亿
创业板指	3,586.04	-0.45%	3,048.7 亿
中证1000	7,715.89	-1.00%	5,647.6 亿
国证2000	10,036.35	-1.07%	7,557.6 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	263	4.75%	+7.07%	+5.73%
趋势延续	463	8.36%	+1.34%	+1.17%
低位修复	103	1.86%	+0.74%	+0.43%
中间状态	4711	85.04%	-1.78%	-1.73%

三项风险

单日市场广度明显承压

下跌4317家，上涨占比仅20.63%；中位数涨幅-1.48%。

少数方向逆势承压

房地产、有色金属分别为-2.31%、-2.81%。

放量后的次日承接仍需验证

成交额环比+18.49%，102家触板中40家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度与趋势存量是否继续背离

若上涨占比修复且MA20上方比例保持高位，分歧仍偏结构性；两者同步下滑则风险升级。

创新药强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

MLCC弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日60.8%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,926.96 · MA5 3,942.87 · MA10 3,895.74 · MA20 3,862.24

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,862.24 · 近10日最低 3,797.64 · 近20日最低 3,741.11；压力：近10日最高 3,968.48 · 近20日最高 3,968.48

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-02-12	4,136.99	4,140.59	4,124.13	4,134.02	+0.05%
2026-02-13	4,115.92	4,123.84	4,079.77	4,082.07	-1.26%
2026-02-24	4,129.13	4,131.55	4,105.94	4,117.41	+0.87%
2026-02-25	4,123.78	4,167.84	4,122.70	4,147.23	+0.72%
2026-02-26	4,151.07	4,152.19	4,127.15	4,146.63	-0.01%
2026-02-27	4,128.90	4,166.23	4,128.36	4,162.88	+0.39%
2026-03-02	4,151.80	4,188.77	4,131.37	4,182.59	+0.47%
2026-03-03	4,189.41	4,197.23	4,116.01	4,122.68	-1.43%
2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

医药生物	趋势扩散	504	+1.52%	+8.47%	+3.34%	+0.72%	69.84%	91.87%	2,127.3 亿	8.28%	14	0	41.32	2.58
银行	低位修复	42	+0.29%	-0.43%	+1.49%	+0.18%	57.14%	26.19%	236.3 亿	0.92%	0	0	6.05	0.54
综合	方向待明	20	+0.22%	+3.61%	+5.94%	-1.07%	30.00%	100.00%	41.67 亿	0.16%	2	0	48.27	2.87
公用事业	方向待明	139	+0.19%	+1.50%	+8.60%	-0.46%	33.09%	58.27%	613.9 亿	2.39%	5	0	27.36	1.63
非银金融	方向待明	79	-0.13%	-0.35%	-0.04%	-0.08%	41.77%	51.90%	415.7 亿	1.62%	0	0	18.70	1.25
食品饮料	高位分歧	126	-0.16%	+3.96%	+6.00%	-0.31%	32.54%	80.95%	372.5 亿	1.45%	3	0	26.58	2.27
通信	方向待明	127	-0.33%	+1.78%	+4.21%	-1.11%	29.13%	93.70%	2,150.3 亿	8.37%	3	0	106.50	4.59
农林牧渔	方向待明	114	-0.71%	+1.75%	+3.93%	-0.83%	20.18%	92.98%	167.3 亿	0.65%	1	0	37.13	2.37
交通运输	方向待明	128	-0.99%	-0.36%	+2.18%	-0.97%	11.72%	53.91%	187.3 亿	0.73%	0	0	17.66	1.39
传媒	方向待明	131	-1.05%	+0.75%	+6.11%	-1.43%	14.50%	87.02%	728.6 亿	2.84%	4	0	41.25	3.09
家用电器	方向待明	103	-1.08%	+1.35%	+2.70%	-1.35%	20.39%	81.55%	186.0 亿	0.72%	2	0	41.42	2.52
国防军工	方向待明	141	-1.13%	+0.73%	+3.25%	-1.36%	14.89%	90.07%	510.5 亿	1.99%	1	0	87.02	3.75
汽车	方向待明	320	-1.23%	+1.19%	+2.47%	-1.52%	12.50%	86.88%	588.6 亿	2.29%	4	0	30.22	2.47
电力设备	方向待明	415	-1.23%	+1.53%	+6.00%	-1.66%	18.07%	92.05%	1,845.1 亿	7.19%	3	0	45.61	2.82
建筑装饰	方向待明	155	-1.25%	+1.37%	+3.08%	-1.63%	14.19%	79.35%	378.0 亿	1.47%	3	1	31.89	2.01
商贸零售	方向待明	100	-1.28%	+1.17%	+3.72%	-1.61%	13.00%	86.00%	164.5 亿	0.64%	0	0	31.35	1.94
美容护理	方向待明	32	-1.32%	+0.30%	+2.48%	-1.40%	15.63%	62.50%	42.81 亿	0.17%	0	0	27.29	2.45
轻工制造	方向待明	166	-1.33%	+1.61%	+3.14%	-1.46%	12.05%	89.16%	143.5 亿	0.56%	0	0	30.31	2.13
计算机	方向待明	357	-1.34%	-1.05%	+6.56%	-1.60%	15.69%	93.00%	1,791.7 亿	6.98%	3	1	82.57	3.63
环保	方向待明	134	-1.42%	+1.96%	+3.39%	-1.59%	11.19%	85.07%	165.4 亿	0.64%	1	0	30.16	1.99
煤炭	方向待明	33	-1.43%	-1.39%	+6.97%	-1.55%	15.15%	75.76%	101.5 亿	0.40%	0	0	22.59	1.29
社会服务	方向待明	86	-1.46%	+0.80%	+8.12%	-1.29%	15.12%	94.19%	116.1 亿	0.45%	0	1	36.14	2.96
石油石化	方向待明	48	-1.57%	-0.25%	+5.98%	-1.99%	4.17%	64.58%	149.3 亿	0.58%	1	0	39.30	2.06
机械设备	方向待明	608	-1.60%	+1.95%	+2.33%	-1.80%	13.65%	90.46%	1,832.9 亿	7.14%	4	0	49.47	3.14
电子	高位分歧	517	-1.62%	+3.19%	-3.19%	-2.05%	15.47%	89.56%	7,088.7 亿	27.60%	2	0	86.53	4.97
基础化工	方向待明	448	-1.63%	+1.00%	+3.37%	-1.88%	9.38%	83.93%	1,207.5 亿	4.70%	3	1	36.82	2.24
纺织服饰	方向待明	108	-1.65%	+1.33%	+3.22%	-1.73%	11.11%	85.19%	123.2 亿	0.48%	0	0	29.96	1.85
钢铁	方向待明	43	-1.72%	-1.61%	+1.97%	-1.81%	6.98%	46.51%	76.20 亿	0.30%	0	0	19.77	1.17
建筑材料	方向待明	76	-1.93%	+0.40%	+1.96%	-2.12%	5.26%	85.53%	338.2 亿	1.32%	1	0	44.44	1.61
房地产	高位分歧	95	-2.31%	+2.64%	+6.02%	-2.65%	8.42%	92.63%	200.1 亿	0.78%	2	0	36.58	1.14
有色金属	方向待明	145	-2.81%	-0.05%	+6.94%	-2.74%	4.83%	88.28%	1,589.0 亿	6.19%	0	0	36.59	3.43

涨停生态

首板 39 家 · 多板 23 家 · 昨日涨停 97 家 · 今日晋级 22 家 · 晋级率 22.68%

5 板 · 1 家 · 秦安股份

4 板 · 6 家 · 一鸣食品、北京文化、皇氏集团、蓝盾光电、同力天启、京投发展

3 板 · 2 家 · 亚泰集团、城地香江

2 板 · 14 家 · 誉衡药业、风语筑、中鼎股份、德龙汇能、天洋新材、望变电气、江河集团、ST龙元

1 板 · 39 家 · 大唐发电、星网锐捷、陇神戎发、共进股份、万邦医药、华电能源、博济医药、春秋电子

行业聚类

医药生物 · 14 家 · 最高 2 板 · 誉衡药业、澳洋健康、陇神戎发、万邦医药、博济医药、新里程

公用事业 · 5 家 · 最高 2 板 · 德龙汇能、惠天热电、大唐发电、华电能源、金开新能

传媒 · 4 家 · 最高 4 板 · 北京文化、风语筑、游族网络、出版传媒

机械设备 · 4 家 · 最高 4 板 · 蓝盾光电、同力天启、佳力图、威派格

汽车 · 4 家 · 最高 5 板 · 秦安股份、中鼎股份、坤泰股份、联诚精密

基础化工 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 天洋新材、华西股份、道生天合

建筑装饰 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 江河集团、ST龙元、金螳螂

电力设备 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 望变电气、良信股份、滨海能源

计算机 · 3 家 · 最高 3 板 · 城地香江、兆日科技、理工能科

通信 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 星网锐捷、共进股份、移远通信

食品饮料 · 3 家 · 最高 4 板 · 一鸣食品、皇氏集团、会稽山

家用电器 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 万和电气、海洋王

房地产 · 2 家 · 最高 4 板 · 京投发展、深振业A

电子 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 春秋电子、*ST清越

综合 · 2 家 · 最高 3 板 · 亚泰集团、群兴玩具

农林牧渔 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 中基健康

国防军工 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 立航科技

建筑材料 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 瑞泰科技

环保 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 中持股份

石油石化 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 渤海化学

连续晋级与首板

秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	+10.04%	5	7,689.79 万	主板	92503	92503	0	5/5	1.79 亿
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	+10.00%	4	8.54 亿	主板	94859	143035	9	9/13	3,452.65 万
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	+10.02%	4	8.51 亿	主板	92500	93012	1	4/4	1.68 亿
皇氏集团	002329.SZ	食品饮料	+10.00%	4	7.19 亿	主板	92500	102530	4	4/4	5,558.55 万
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+20.01%	4	4.10 亿	创业板	92500	92500	0	4/4	10.38 亿
同力天启	605286.SH	机械设备	+10.00%	4	7,765.02 万	主板	92500	92500	0	4/4	9,114.64 万
京投发展	600683.SH	房地产	+10.04%	4	2,436.79 万	主板	92502	92502	0	4/4	1.64 亿
亚泰集团	600881.SH	综合	+10.19%	3	6.39 亿	主板	93626	94056	1	3/3	1.00 亿
城地香江	603887.SH	计算机	+10.04%	3	2.28 亿	主板	92501	92501	0	3/3	2.71 亿
誉衡药业	002437.SZ	医药生物	+10.10%	2	19.54 亿	主板	95136	95154	1	4/5	6,834.36 万
风语筑	603466.SH	传媒	+10.02%	2	19.20 亿	主板	94849	144707	28	2/2	1,024.56 万
中鼎股份	000887.SZ	汽车	+9.98%	2	18.23 亿	主板	93000	143642	1	2/2	3.59 亿
德龙汇能	000593.SZ	公用事业	+10.01%	2	9.79 亿	主板	104218	104218	0	6/10	5,546.76 万
天洋新材	603330.SH	基础化工	+9.97%	2	6.31 亿	主板	101437	130643	7	2/2	4,678.32 万
望变电气	603191.SH	电力设备	+10.00%	2	6.26 亿	主板	133402	144702	1	2/2	1,181.23 万
江河集团	601886.SH	建筑装饰	+10.02%	2	4.99 亿	主板	101014	132556	3	3/4	1,156.89 万
ST龙元	600491.SH	建筑装饰	+10.29%	2	2.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
惠天热电	000692.SZ	公用事业	+9.91%	2	2.11 亿	主板	93654	93654	0	3/6	2,942.64 万
华西股份	000936.SZ	基础化工	+10.07%	2	1.64 亿	主板	93000	93000	0	2/2	1.29 亿
金螳螂	002081.SZ	建筑装饰	+10.07%	2	1.31 亿	主板	92500	92500	0	2/2	3.15 亿

晋级未完成（最多16只）

百花医药	600721.SH	医药生物	+3.35%	25.72 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	-7.35%	8.44 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华东数控	002248.SZ	机械设备	-3.53%	12.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
香江控股	600162.SH	房地产	-3.18%	19.07 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
巨轮智能	002031.SZ	机械设备	-2.34%	29.22 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
鸿博股份	002229.SZ	计算机	+5.73%	30.84 亿	主板	93012	—	5	2/3	—
宝鹰股份	002047.SZ	建筑装饰	+7.14%	9.59 亿	主板	141900	—	5	2/3	—
长城科技	603897.SH	电力设备	+8.21%	13.90 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
传智教育	003032.SZ	社会服务	-9.99%	11.18 亿	主板	—	143530	2	—	4,371.90 万
格尔软件	603232.SH	计算机	-8.67%	5.04 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
达实智能	002421.SZ	计算机	-7.99%	19.61 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
中交发展	000736.SZ	房地产	-6.67%	1.90 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
江钨装备	600397.SH	机械设备	-6.62%	31.44 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
风范股份	601700.SH	电力设备	-6.46%	15.14 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
越剑智能	603095.SH	机械设备	-6.02%	2.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
清新环境	002573.SZ	环保	-5.59%	2.31 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

麦迪科技	603990.SH	计算机	-9.99%	14.20 亿	主板	—	140742	19	—	8,411.58 万
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.98%	12.85 亿	主板	—	145424	0	—	1,502.84 万
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	-10.00%	12.58 亿	主板	—	145621	2	—	1,936.79 万
传智教育	003032.SZ	社会服务	-9.99%	11.18 亿	主板	—	143530	2	—	4,371.90 万

大跌样本

国仪公司	688828.SH	机械设备	-14.25%	12.86 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
杰理科技	920138.BJ	电子	-12.52%	8.84 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
尤安设计	300983.SZ	建筑装饰	-10.74%	1.52 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
普联软件	300996.SZ	计算机	-10.52%	20.85 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	-10.00%	12.58 亿	主板	—	145621	2	—	1,936.79 万
传智教育	003032.SZ	社会服务	-9.99%	11.18 亿	主板	—	143530	2	—	4,371.90 万
麦迪科技	603990.SH	计算机	-9.99%	14.20 亿	主板	—	140742	19	—	8,411.58 万
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.98%	12.85 亿	主板	—	145424	0	—	1,502.84 万
嘉泽新能	601619.SH	公用事业	-9.70%	7.71 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST威领	002667.SZ	机械设备	-9.63%	3.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
杰克科技	603337.SH	机械设备	-9.45%	6.03 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
维琪科技	920176.BJ	美容护理	-9.21%	1.78 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

新赣江	920367.BJ	医药生物	+29.60%	0	3.79 亿	北交所	111932	—	1	0/0	—
博济医药	300404.SZ	医药生物	+20.02%	1	8.23 亿	创业板	95733	95733	0	1/1	9,409.12 万
南模生物	688265.SH	医药生物	+20.01%	1	2.89 亿	科创板	103526	103526	0	1/1	3,172.51 万
近岸蛋白	688137.SH	医药生物	+20.01%	1	4.25 亿	科创板	111637	111637	0	1/1	4,349.29 万
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+20.01%	4	4.10 亿	创业板	92500	92500	0	4/4	10.38 亿
万邦医药	301520.SZ	医药生物	+20.00%	1	12.76 亿	创业板	104445	105739	5	2/3	2,957.67 万
药易购	300937.SZ	医药生物	+19.98%	1	5.53 亿	创业板	111318	111318	0	1/1	6,372.97 万
陇神戎发	300534.SZ	医药生物	+19.97%	1	17.31 亿	创业板	105515	105515	0	1/1	1,741.76 万
兰卫医学	301060.SZ	医药生物	+19.96%	1	4.26 亿	创业板	130412	130412	0	1/1	5,047.36 万
兆日科技	300333.SZ	计算机	+19.95%	2	3,354.02 万	创业板	92500	92500	0	2/2	1.82 亿
*ST清越	688496.SH	电子	+19.54%	1	1,818.39 万	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
立昂技术	300603.SZ	通信	+18.31%	0	6.69 亿	创业板	93327	—	2	0/0	—

跌幅居前

国仪公司	688828.SH	机械设备	-14.25%	12.86 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
杰理科技	920138.BJ	电子	-12.52%	8.84 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
尤安设计	300983.SZ	建筑装饰	-10.74%	1.52 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
普联软件	300996.SZ	计算机	-10.52%	20.85 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	-10.00%	12.58 亿	主板	—	145621	2	—	1,936.79 万
传智教育	003032.SZ	社会服务	-9.99%	11.18 亿	主板	—	143530	2	—	4,371.90 万
麦迪科技	603990.SH	计算机	-9.99%	14.20 亿	主板	—	140742	19	—	8,411.58 万
甘咨询	000779.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.98%	12.85 亿	主板	—	145424	0	—	1,502.84 万
嘉泽新能	601619.SH	公用事业	-9.70%	7.71 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST威领	002667.SZ	机械设备	-9.63%	3.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
杰克科技	603337.SH	机械设备	-9.45%	6.03 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
维琪科技	920176.BJ	美容护理	-9.21%	1.78 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3192	-1.07%	19.52%	80.95%	+1.73%
创业板	1400	-1.04%	21.14%	94.29%	+3.09%
科创板	613	-0.82%	27.08%	90.70%	+2.38%
北交所	335	-1.42%	17.31%	83.28%	+2.19%

市值分层

小盘	2771	-1.14%	17.76%	33.34 亿
中盘	1662	-1.00%	21.24%	93.90 亿
大盘	831	-1.03%	24.67%	289.9 亿
超大盘	276	-0.67%	33.70%	1,355.4 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

创新药	趋势扩散	281/280	+1.78%	+9.12%	+1.91%	+1.78%	+9.28%	+1.70%	-0.00%	75.71%	92.50%	1,586.5 亿	6.18%	100.00%	+2.84%	8	0	37.53 亿	100.00%
酿酒	方向待明	31/30	+1.67%	+3.50%	+14.00%	+0.26%	+3.37%	+5.97%	-1.41%	40.00%	90.00%	165.4 亿	0.64%	55.00%	+2.73%	1	0	5.18 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	方向待明	229/229	-0.63%	+2.06%	-0.22%	-0.63%	+2.01%	-0.73%	+0.00%	27.07%	86.46%	3,108.8 亿	12.11%	70.00%	+0.43%	5	0	-1.10 亿	100.00%
CPO	高位分歧	212/212	-0.97%	+4.35%	-1.57%	-0.95%	+4.25%	-2.16%	+0.02%	22.17%	95.75%	5,022.3 亿	19.56%	55.00%	+0.09%	3	0	-34.40 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/197	-1.05%	+1.21%	+6.45%	-1.04%	+1.24%	+6.02%	+0.00%	12.18%	87.31%	911.9 亿	3.55%	100.00%	+0.01%	5	0	-12.70 亿	100.00%
商业航天	方向待明	507/507	-1.39%	+0.99%	+1.83%	-1.39%	+1.01%	+1.33%	-0.00%	12.62%	89.74%	3,402.2 亿	13.25%	65.00%	-0.33%	3	0	-110.9 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/462	-1.50%	+1.41%	+0.87%	-1.50%	+1.41%	+0.30%	-0.00%	12.77%	91.13%	3,063.2 亿	11.93%	60.00%	-0.44%	5	2	-97.34 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	方向待明	57/57	-1.55%	+1.65%	-3.99%	-1.57%	+1.60%	-4.33%	-0.02%	15.79%	92.98%	835.5 亿	3.25%	25.00%	-0.50%	0	0	-6.64 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	-1.61%	+1.66%	+2.65%	-1.61%	+1.63%	+2.14%	-0.00%	8.63%	94.96%	458.6 亿	1.79%	65.00%	-0.55%	2	0	-7.77 亿	100.00%
PCB	高位分歧	236/236	-1.70%	+3.64%	-1.20%	-1.70%	+3.57%	-2.04%	+0.00%	13.14%	94.49%	2,856.2 亿	11.12%	70.00%	-0.64%	2	0	-83.71 亿	100.00%
先进封装	高位分歧	204/204	-1.81%	+3.09%	-3.54%	-1.81%	+3.16%	-4.33%	-0.00%	12.75%	90.69%	3,203.7 亿	12.48%	55.00%	-0.75%	1	0	-66.41 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	方向待明	34/34	-1.83%	-0.20%	+1.17%	-1.83%	-0.23%	+0.68%	+0.00%	8.82%	91.18%	87.77 亿	0.34%	50.00%	-0.78%	0	0	-3.12 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	方向待明	43/43	-1.87%	+2.16%	-6.54%	-1.87%	+2.13%	-7.02%	-0.00%	13.95%	90.70%	552.7 亿	2.15%	60.00%	-0.82%	0	0	-22.16 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	高位分歧	206/204	-1.95%	+3.30%	-5.26%	-1.95%	+3.21%	-5.76%	+0.01%	11.76%	86.27%	4,180.8 亿	16.28%	40.00%	-0.90%	0	0	-120.5 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	方向待明	80/80	-2.16%	+2.53%	-2.07%	-2.14%	+2.46%	-3.22%	+0.02%	10.00%	92.50%	508.1 亿	1.98%	45.00%	-1.10%	0	0	-25.36 亿	100.00%
MLCC	高位分歧	35/35	-2.57%	+3.12%	—	-2.57%	+3.05%	+2.31%	-0.00%	11.43%	97.14%	734.9 亿	2.86%	70.00%	-1.51%	0	0	-39.87 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

创新药 · 趋势扩散

领涨：新赣江（920367.BJ）+29.60%、博济医药（300404.SZ）+20.02%、万邦医药（301520.SZ）+20.00%

领跌：联化科技（002250.SZ）-6.30%、贵研铂业（600459.SH）-4.47%、宏辉果蔬（603336.SH）-4.17%

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：会稽山（601579.SH）+10.03%、古越龙山（600059.SH）+4.86%、山西汾酒（600809.SH）+3.46%

领跌：今世缘（603369.SH）-2.21%、*ST尼雅（600084.SH）-2.13%、ST通葡（600365.SH）-2.12%

液冷服务器 · 方向待明

领涨：立昂技术（300603.SZ）+18.31%、锐捷网络（301165.SZ）+13.52%、威派格（603956.SH）+10.06%

领跌：达实智能（002421.SZ）-7.99%、风华高科（000636.SZ）-6.75%、锐新科技（300828.SZ）-6.41%

CPO · 高位分歧

领涨：锐捷网络（301165.SZ）+13.52%、共进股份（603118.SH）+9.99%、星网锐捷（002396.SZ）+9.99%

领跌：风华高科（000636.SZ）-6.75%、蘅东光（920045.BJ）-6.58%、鹏鼎控股（002938.SZ）-5.23%

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：立昂技术（300603.SZ）+18.31%、风语筑（603466.SH）+10.02%、北京文化（000802.SZ）+10.02%

领跌：幸福蓝海（300528.SZ）-7.16%、盛达资源（000603.SZ）-6.39%、智度股份（000676.SZ）-5.39%

商业航天 · 方向待明

领涨：蓝盾光电（300862.SZ）+20.01%、肯特股份（301591.SZ）+10.54%、风语筑（603466.SH）+10.02%

领跌：新和成（002001.SZ）-7.83%、风华高科（000636.SZ）-6.75%、优机股份（920943.BJ）-5.71%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：秦安股份（603758.SH）+10.04%、风语筑（603466.SH）+10.02%、春秋电子（603890.SH）+10.01%

领跌：传智教育（003032.SZ）-9.99%、麦迪科技（603990.SH）-9.99%、杰克科技（603337.SH）-9.45%

玻璃基板 · 方向待明

领涨：力诺药包（301188.SZ）+6.95%、沃尔德（688028.SH）+3.49%、大族数控（301200.SZ）+2.10%

领跌：汇成真空（301392.SZ）-5.41%、美迪凯（688079.SH）-4.53%、沃格光电（603773.SH）-4.38%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：联诚精密（002921.SZ）+10.00%、中鼎股份（000887.SZ）+9.98%、斯菱智驱（301550.SZ）+2.72%

领跌：宏昌科技（301008.SZ）-7.77%、瑜欣电子（301107.SZ）-5.80%、秦川机床（000837.SZ）-4.82%

PCB · 高位分歧

领涨：肯特股份（301591.SZ）+10.54%、威派格（603956.SH）+10.06%、共进股份（603118.SH）+9.99%

领跌：吉和昌（920193.BJ）-6.83%、洁美科技（002859.SZ）-6.51%、国际复材（301526.SZ）-5.96%

先进封装 · 高位分歧

领涨：共进股份（603118.SH）+9.99%、天孚通信（300394.SZ）+7.13%、骄成超声（688392.SH）+5.45%

领跌：展芯股份（301707.SZ）-6.76%、托伦斯（301583.SZ）-5.43%、有研新材（600206.SH）-5.17%

金属新材料 · 方向待明

领涨：斯瑞新材（688102.SH）+3.36%、龙磁科技（300835.SZ）+1.34%、铂科新材（300811.SZ）+0.38%

领跌：族兴新材（920078.BJ）-4.97%、江南新材（603124.SH）-3.79%、鑫科材料（600255.SH）-3.26%

电子化学品 · 方向待明

领涨：中石科技（300684.SZ）+8.23%、莱尔科技（688683.SH）+4.37%、海星股份（603115.SH）+3.85%

领跌：中巨芯（688549.SH）-4.93%、康美特（920189.BJ）-4.85%、龙辰科技（920161.BJ）-4.52%

存储芯片 · 高位分歧

领涨：精智达（688627.SH）+5.30%、太极实业（600667.SH）+4.71%、炬光科技（688167.SH）+4.21%

领跌：托伦斯（301583.SZ）-5.43%、有研新材（600206.SH）-5.17%、江丰电子（300666.SZ）-4.93%

光刻胶 · 方向待明

领涨：聚石化学（688669.SH）+2.65%、茂莱光学（688502.SH）+2.40%、阿拉丁（688179.SH）+2.10%

领跌：吉和昌（920193.BJ）-6.83%、联合化学（301209.SZ）-6.66%、松井股份（688157.SH）-5.28%

MLCC · 高位分歧

领涨：火炬电子（603678.SH）+2.49%、双星新材（002585.SZ）+1.80%、三环集团（300408.SZ）+0.34%

领跌：昀冢科技（688260.SH）-7.75%、风华高科（000636.SZ）-6.75%、洁美科技（002859.SZ）-6.51%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

医药健康	52	+1.32%	+0.95%	+7.28%	+2.91%	83.39 亿	100.00%	5/41	银华中证创新药产业ETF · -0.48%
金融地产	50	+0.19%	+0.34%	+0.23%	-0.37%	81.23 亿	98.00%	11/23	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · -0.34%
消费	46	-0.08%	-0.32%	+1.44%	+2.37%	21.81 亿	100.00%	5/16	鹏华中证酒ETF · -0.82%
大盘宽基	83	-0.35%	-0.44%	+0.40%	+0.93%	107.6 亿	100.00%	8/39	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · -2.03%
红利防御	98	-0.37%	-0.39%	-0.33%	+3.28%	40.24 亿	98.98%	10/42	广发中证全指电力公用事业ETF · -0.28%
中小盘宽基	140	-0.64%	-0.76%	+2.04%	+0.47%	283.3 亿	100.00%	10/60	易方达创业板ETF · -1.02%
AI与半导体	129	-1.70%	-1.44%	-0.24%	-6.18%	475.3 亿	100.00%	49/48	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · +1.68%
资源周期	59	-3.30%	-3.38%	-2.06%	+7.32%	76.38 亿	100.00%	12/32	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · -0.87%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

医药健康	医药生物、美容护理	536	+1.35%	+7.98%	+3.28%	66.60%	90.11%	8.45%	14	0
公用防御	公用事业、交通运输、环保	401	-0.73%	+1.06%	+4.81%	18.95%	65.84%	3.76%	6	0
大消费	食品饮料、农林牧渔、家用电器、商贸零售、社会服务	529	-0.88%	+1.94%	+4.83%	20.98%	86.77%	3.92%	6	1
金融地产	银行、非银金融、房地产	216	-1.01%	+0.95%	+2.92%	30.09%	64.81%	3.32%	2	0
AI硬件与数字经济	通信、计算机、电子	1001	-1.36%	+1.50%	+1.23%	17.28%	91.31%	42.96%	8	1
高端制造	国防军工、汽车、电力设备、机械设备	1484	-1.37%	+1.55%	+3.48%	14.76%	90.09%	18.60%	12	0
基建链	建筑装饰、建筑材料	231	-1.47%	+1.05%	+2.71%	11.26%	81.39%	2.79%	4	1
资源周期	煤炭、石油石化、基础化工、钢铁、有色金属	717	-1.86%	+0.44%	+4.35%	8.23%	80.89%	12.16%	4	1

近五个交易日

2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5

边际变化

成交额：扩张 · +18.49%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -53.89%

涨停家数：压缩 · -35

最高连板：压缩 · -2

五日成交中位：2.5387 万亿 · 温度区间：46.3–76.2 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：创新药 3次、MLCC 2次、酿酒 2次、CPO 1次、PCB 1次、先进封装 1次

行业：电子 3次、医药生物 2次、农林牧渔 1次、国防军工 1次、房地产 1次、机械设备 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日+18.5%，上涨覆盖20.6%，五日成交中位25387.1亿元。

方向承接 · 创新药当日收益+1.78%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 医药生物涨停14家，最高2板。

负反馈 · 跌停4家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 乐观条件已满足

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 25387.1亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 创新药

确认：创新药继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 22.7%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖20.6%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 32 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5

情绪九维 61.8

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数7.44
7.44
输入与公式
62 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率8.58
8.58
输入与公式
0.6078431372549019 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率9.07
9.07
输入与公式
0.2268041237113402 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价7.44
7.44
输入与公式
0.01100213402061856 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应2.7
2.7
输入与公式
{"limitDown":4,"largeLoss":36} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度3.09
3.09
输入与公式
0.2063176895306859 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比5.74
5.74
输入与公式
{"limitUp":62,"limitDown":4} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能6.98
6.98
输入与公式
1.0487677687515 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	263	4.75%	+7.07%	+5.73%
趋势延续	463	8.36%	+1.34%	+1.17%
低位修复	103	1.86%	+0.74%	+0.43%
中间状态	4711	85.04%	-1.78%	-1.73%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 97 家 · 今日晋级 22 家 · 晋级率 22.68%

晋级名单

秦安股份	603758.SH	汽车	5	+10.04%
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	4	+10.00%
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	4	+10.02%
皇氏集团	002329.SZ	食品饮料	4	+10.00%
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	4	+20.01%
同力天启	605286.SH	机械设备	4	+10.00%
京投发展	600683.SH	房地产	4	+10.04%
亚泰集团	600881.SH	综合	3	+10.19%
城地香江	603887.SH	计算机	3	+10.04%
誉衡药业	002437.SZ	医药生物	2	+10.10%
风语筑	603466.SH	传媒	2	+10.02%
中鼎股份	000887.SZ	汽车	2	+9.98%
德龙汇能	000593.SZ	公用事业	2	+10.01%
天洋新材	603330.SH	基础化工	2	+9.97%
望变电气	603191.SH	电力设备	2	+10.00%
江河集团	601886.SH	建筑装饰	2	+10.02%
ST龙元	600491.SH	建筑装饰	2	+10.29%
惠天热电	000692.SZ	公用事业	2	+9.91%
华西股份	000936.SZ	基础化工	2	+10.07%
金螳螂	002081.SZ	建筑装饰	2	+10.07%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

共 16 条假设

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 未确认

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

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确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

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确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

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确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

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确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

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确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

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确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

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确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

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确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

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确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

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确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

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确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:02:48.447802+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。