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2026-10-08

结论与证据

全A收盘为1698家上涨、3748家下跌，上涨占比30.56%；成交1.6943万亿元，环比+16.84%。单日广度显著转弱，但29.7%样本仍站在MA20上方，同时有45家封板、16家跌停，更接近结构分歧，而不是所有趋势同步失效。

广度承压 · 量能扩张 · MA20上方30% · 45家封板 · 温度42.7

支持证据

16方向中酿酒当日+1.26%居前；84家触板、封板率53.6%，最高8板。

反证与边界

电子当日等权-3.61%，CPO方向-4.17%；成交额环比+16.84%，资金流分类代理-480.4亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 1.6943 万亿
成交环比: +16.84%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 1698 / 3748 / 111
上涨覆盖: 30.56%
中位涨幅: -1.01%
MA20上方: 29.75%
20日新高 / 新低: 274 / 1438
涨停 / 跌停: 45 / 16
触板 / 未封: 84 / 39
封板率: 53.57%
最高连板: 8 板

收盘温度 42.7

广度10.69
10.69
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势5.95
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态11.07
11.07
输入与公式
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量能15
15
输入与公式
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指数0
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 52.1

连板高度15
15
输入与公式
8.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数5.4
5.4
输入与公式
45.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率7.56
7.56
输入与公式
0.54 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率7.14
7.14
输入与公式
0.18 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价5.11
5.11
输入与公式
0.00 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":16,"largeLoss":173} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度4.58
4.58
输入与公式
0.31 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比2.53
2.53
输入与公式
{"limitUp":45,"limitDown":16} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.72
4.72
输入与公式
0.94 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,811.90	-0.79%	8,111.8 亿
科创50	1,456.32	-4.82%	824.0 亿
深证成指	12,620.90	-2.07%	4,411.0 亿
创业板指	3,036.66	-3.15%	1,760.4 亿
中证1000	7,138.58	-2.20%	3,240.1 亿
国证2000	9,470.03	-1.85%	4,951.0 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	154	2.77%	+7.34%	+6.49%
趋势延续	216	3.89%	+2.44%	+1.94%
低位修复	814	14.65%	+1.30%	+0.93%
中间状态	4373	78.69%	-1.98%	-1.58%

三项风险

单日市场广度明显承压

下跌3748家，上涨占比仅30.56%；中位数涨幅-1.01%。

少数方向逆势承压

通信、电子分别为-2.54%、-3.61%。

放量后的次日承接仍需验证

成交额环比+16.84%，84家触板中39家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度与趋势存量是否继续背离

若上涨占比修复且MA20上方比例保持高位，分歧仍偏结构性；两者同步下滑则风险升级。

酿酒强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

CPO弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日53.6%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,811.90 · MA5 3,839.31 · MA10 3,882.26 · MA20 3,899.16

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,899.16 · 近10日最低 3,795.37 · 近20日最低 3,795.37；压力：近10日最高 3,967.68 · 近20日最高 3,980.20

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%
2026-08-18	3,979.49	3,994.18	3,955.60	3,990.30	+0.19%
2026-08-19	3,952.12	3,961.14	3,879.58	3,894.42	-2.40%
2026-08-20	3,907.21	3,925.06	3,888.10	3,903.72	+0.24%
2026-08-21	3,891.18	3,912.13	3,883.79	3,905.20	+0.04%
2026-08-24	3,902.70	3,910.24	3,855.35	3,882.01	-0.59%
2026-08-25	3,863.37	3,896.21	3,850.86	3,889.44	+0.19%
2026-08-26	3,881.74	3,926.44	3,881.74	3,912.52	+0.59%
2026-08-27	3,911.89	3,958.03	3,909.31	3,956.57	+1.13%
2026-08-28	3,950.24	3,970.31	3,947.80	3,952.18	-0.11%
2026-08-31	3,926.53	3,986.30	3,926.50	3,986.30	+0.86%
2026-09-01	3,979.88	3,995.18	3,976.47	3,979.89	-0.16%
2026-09-02	3,963.07	3,965.81	3,932.25	3,941.39	-0.97%
2026-09-03	3,952.79	3,968.11	3,930.45	3,942.09	+0.02%
2026-09-04	3,955.55	3,980.20	3,915.22	3,930.12	-0.30%
2026-09-07	3,942.51	3,948.42	3,916.49	3,932.70	+0.07%
2026-09-08	3,935.55	3,951.32	3,925.72	3,940.55	+0.20%
2026-09-09	3,943.92	3,958.12	3,933.47	3,951.51	+0.28%
2026-09-10	3,939.09	3,949.25	3,927.35	3,934.40	-0.43%
2026-09-11	3,910.92	3,912.32	3,852.03	3,888.11	-1.18%
2026-09-14	3,867.02	3,895.51	3,867.02	3,885.33	-0.07%
2026-09-15	3,879.73	3,891.62	3,858.15	3,864.28	-0.54%
2026-09-16	3,861.75	3,894.66	3,842.72	3,891.60	+0.71%
2026-09-17	3,877.00	3,898.84	3,866.89	3,875.60	-0.41%
2026-09-18	3,891.96	3,919.67	3,888.50	3,911.87	+0.94%
2026-09-21	3,920.27	3,950.94	3,918.13	3,949.91	+0.97%
2026-09-22	3,963.81	3,967.68	3,945.42	3,952.13	+0.06%
2026-09-23	3,951.37	3,951.52	3,934.46	3,936.52	-0.39%
2026-09-24	3,925.32	3,930.50	3,888.37	3,888.37	-1.22%
2026-09-28	3,878.41	3,878.41	3,806.67	3,823.62	-1.67%
2026-09-29	3,816.15	3,843.84	3,810.81	3,830.45	+0.18%
2026-09-30	3,839.25	3,851.22	3,833.09	3,842.19	+0.31%
2026-10-08	3,838.98	3,864.12	3,795.37	3,811.90	-0.79%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

煤炭	修复延续	33	+2.17%	+2.30%	-0.59%	+1.90%	93.94%	48.48%	133.7 亿	0.79%	1	0	25.60	1.24
石油石化	修复延续	48	+1.89%	+0.29%	-2.99%	+1.79%	81.25%	29.17%	164.9 亿	0.97%	0	0	28.81	2.11
公用事业	修复延续	139	+1.57%	+1.59%	+0.30%	+1.41%	82.01%	51.80%	374.7 亿	2.21%	2	0	27.14	1.61
银行	修复延续	42	+0.85%	+2.53%	+0.43%	+0.83%	88.10%	78.57%	298.4 亿	1.76%	0	0	6.28	0.56
交通运输	修复延续	127	+0.72%	+0.80%	+0.46%	+0.49%	65.35%	47.24%	251.3 亿	1.48%	2	0	17.70	1.46
电力设备	低位修复	418	+0.40%	-1.55%	-2.33%	-0.05%	48.80%	33.49%	1,524.4 亿	9.00%	11	0	42.66	2.68
食品饮料	方向待明	126	+0.26%	+0.11%	-1.00%	0.00%	49.21%	45.24%	254.6 亿	1.50%	2	0	25.25	2.31
环保	低位修复	134	+0.18%	-2.01%	-3.58%	0.00%	47.76%	32.84%	134.9 亿	0.80%	2	0	28.41	1.96
基础化工	低位修复	450	+0.11%	-3.44%	-3.41%	-0.19%	44.67%	33.11%	901.2 亿	5.32%	5	0	35.53	2.23
纺织服饰	低位修复	107	+0.04%	-1.80%	-4.10%	-0.20%	42.06%	39.25%	93.70 亿	0.55%	2	0	30.30	1.95
钢铁	方向待明	44	-0.09%	-0.74%	-4.00%	0.00%	40.91%	15.91%	62.95 亿	0.37%	0	0	22.43	1.16
综合	方向待明	20	-0.26%	+0.58%	-0.77%	-0.28%	40.00%	50.00%	43.14 亿	0.25%	0	0	50.47	3.00
农林牧渔	方向待明	114	-0.49%	-2.42%	-4.06%	-0.79%	28.95%	13.16%	244.0 亿	1.44%	0	0	45.51	2.46
家用电器	方向待明	101	-0.63%	-2.15%	-0.49%	-0.64%	34.65%	36.63%	187.6 亿	1.11%	2	0	35.30	2.50
建筑材料	方向待明	75	-0.65%	-2.53%	-1.66%	-0.90%	28.00%	34.67%	214.3 亿	1.27%	0	0	42.01	1.55
有色金属	退潮观察	147	-0.72%	-6.07%	-8.62%	-0.61%	32.65%	10.20%	654.6 亿	3.86%	0	0	28.88	3.22
社会服务	退潮观察	85	-0.73%	-4.11%	-5.75%	-0.99%	29.41%	21.18%	99.91 亿	0.59%	0	0	36.81	2.88
建筑装饰	退潮观察	155	-0.79%	-3.03%	-2.48%	-0.78%	31.61%	32.90%	195.2 亿	1.15%	2	1	30.08	2.19
轻工制造	方向待明	168	-0.84%	-2.99%	-2.19%	-0.76%	28.57%	35.12%	164.2 亿	0.97%	3	1	34.85	2.27
商贸零售	方向待明	100	-0.92%	-2.59%	-3.88%	-0.96%	26.00%	18.00%	127.0 亿	0.75%	0	0	28.77	1.89
国防军工	退潮观察	140	-1.07%	-5.53%	-5.71%	-1.17%	23.57%	8.57%	419.6 亿	2.48%	0	0	79.38	3.62
非银金融	退潮观察	76	-1.20%	-3.59%	-6.90%	-1.20%	9.21%	6.58%	262.4 亿	1.55%	0	0	14.27	1.13
美容护理	方向待明	32	-1.21%	-0.64%	-0.35%	-0.96%	28.13%	46.88%	52.49 亿	0.31%	0	0	27.04	2.42
房地产	方向待明	94	-1.24%	+0.29%	+4.25%	-1.72%	20.21%	71.28%	277.3 亿	1.64%	1	0	36.87	1.21
汽车	方向待明	325	-1.50%	-2.85%	-4.17%	-1.20%	21.85%	26.46%	604.0 亿	3.57%	1	3	28.81	2.40
机械设备	退潮观察	617	-1.50%	-5.81%	-5.12%	-1.24%	25.28%	24.80%	1,184.5 亿	6.99%	3	1	48.77	3.10
医药生物	方向待明	507	-1.98%	-2.64%	+0.85%	-1.55%	18.54%	52.66%	1,407.4 亿	8.31%	2	2	38.31	2.55
传媒	退潮观察	131	-2.07%	-3.41%	-1.55%	-1.99%	9.16%	19.85%	314.6 亿	1.86%	1	1	39.49	2.90
计算机	退潮观察	357	-2.12%	-5.15%	-6.34%	-2.07%	11.76%	17.93%	690.2 亿	4.07%	2	0	72.46	3.47
通信	退潮观察	127	-2.54%	-9.87%	-7.44%	-2.15%	14.96%	10.24%	1,256.1 亿	7.41%	0	1	87.78	4.42
电子	退潮观察	518	-3.61%	-11.60%	-4.79%	-3.40%	8.69%	11.97%	4,349.4 亿	25.67%	1	6	72.38	4.94

涨停生态

首板 35 家 · 多板 10 家 · 昨日涨停 56 家 · 今日晋级 10 家 · 晋级率 17.86%

8 板 · 1 家 · 新华传媒

4 板 · 2 家 · 时代万恒、九阳股份

3 板 · 4 家 · 上海洗霸、传艺科技、紫竹高科、园林股份

2 板 · 3 家 · 龙蟠科技、陆家嘴、兴业股份

1 板 · 35 家 · 顺灏股份、招商南油、金牛化工、中远海能、联环药业、贝特利、山东墨龙、华北制药

行业聚类

电力设备 · 11 家 · 最高 4 板 · 时代万恒、紫竹高科、龙蟠科技、贝特利、丰元股份、领湃科技

基础化工 · 5 家 · 最高 2 板 · 兴业股份、金牛化工、彩蝶实业、世名科技、卓越新能

机械设备 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 山东墨龙、快意电梯、必得科技

轻工制造 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 顺灏股份、松炀资源、三柏硕

交通运输 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 招商南油、中远海能

公用事业 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 广西能源、国新能源

医药生物 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 联环药业、华北制药

家用电器 · 2 家 · 最高 4 板 · 九阳股份、东贝集团

建筑装饰 · 2 家 · 最高 3 板 · 园林股份、恒尚节能

环保 · 2 家 · 最高 3 板 · 上海洗霸、楚环科技

纺织服饰 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 红豆股份、乔治白

计算机 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 金溢科技、*ST网达

食品饮料 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 海欣食品、张裕A

传媒 · 1 家 · 最高 8 板 · 新华传媒

房地产 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 陆家嘴

汽车 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 宁波高发

煤炭 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 安泰集团

电子 · 1 家 · 最高 3 板 · 传艺科技

连续晋级与首板

新华传媒	600825.SH	传媒	+10.05%	8	6,432.45 万	主板	92500	92500	0	8/8	17.76 亿
时代万恒	600241.SH	电力设备	+9.98%	4	3.26 亿	主板	93142	93142	0	4/4	1.26 亿
九阳股份	002242.SZ	家用电器	+10.00%	4	1.51 亿	主板	92500	92500	0	4/4	2.40 亿
上海洗霸	603200.SH	环保	+9.99%	3	15.34 亿	主板	100556	144511	7	3/3	1,433.00 万
传艺科技	002866.SZ	电子	+10.00%	3	6.72 亿	主板	93506	93818	1	3/3	7,865.59 万
紫竹高科	002058.SZ	电力设备	+10.00%	3	1.04 亿	主板	92500	93042	1	3/3	1.42 亿
园林股份	605303.SH	建筑装饰	+10.01%	3	1,014.00 万	主板	92502	92502	0	3/3	1.51 亿
龙蟠科技	603906.SH	电力设备	+9.98%	2	17.06 亿	主板	131309	143542	8	2/2	1,222.62 万
陆家嘴	600663.SH	房地产	+9.99%	2	4.33 亿	主板	93022	94055	3	2/2	4,924.34 万
兴业股份	603928.SH	基础化工	+10.02%	2	3.64 亿	主板	93627	93627	0	2/2	7,642.46 万
顺灏股份	002565.SZ	轻工制造	+9.95%	1	15.58 亿	主板	94024	105245	3	1/1	3,809.59 万
招商南油	601975.SH	交通运输	+9.96%	1	14.67 亿	主板	94401	143928	15	1/1	2,790.96 万
金牛化工	600722.SH	基础化工	+9.99%	1	13.17 亿	主板	94629	135202	1	1/1	4,925.80 万
中远海能	600026.SH	交通运输	+10.02%	1	8.70 亿	主板	93129	93129	0	1/1	1.80 亿
联环药业	600513.SH	医药生物	+10.01%	1	7.46 亿	主板	93028	141807	2	1/1	864.03 万
贝特利	301697.SZ	电力设备	+19.99%	1	6.21 亿	创业板	93815	131233	6	1/1	2,742.96 万
山东墨龙	002490.SZ	机械设备	+9.99%	1	4.99 亿	主板	142730	142730	0	1/1	8,565.81 万
华北制药	600812.SH	医药生物	+10.04%	1	4.94 亿	主板	92500	94839	2	1/1	2,093.67 万
彩蝶实业	603073.SH	基础化工	+10.01%	1	4.79 亿	主板	95902	145511	3	1/1	2,364.11 万
丰元股份	002805.SZ	电力设备	+10.02%	1	4.25 亿	主板	94118	95509	1	1/1	6,439.69 万

晋级未完成（最多16只）

襄阳轴承	000678.SZ	汽车	-5.04%	16.85 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
深物业A	000011.SZ	房地产	-0.98%	15.13 亿	主板	93103	—	7	3/4	—
善水科技	301190.SZ	基础化工	+9.99%	13.66 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
亚邦股份	603188.SH	基础化工	-6.67%	4.80 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
均瑶健康	605388.SH	食品饮料	-6.22%	5.47 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
泰诺麦博	688806.SH	医药生物	-11.48%	4.52 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
龙版传媒	605577.SH	传媒	-9.52%	5.57 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
东风科技	600081.SH	汽车	-8.16%	3.37 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
南华生物	000504.SZ	医药生物	-7.81%	9.82 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
凯迪股份	605288.SH	机械设备	-7.67%	2.32 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
中天服务	002188.SZ	房地产	-6.72%	4.78 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
恒丰纸业	600356.SH	轻工制造	-5.76%	2.91 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
贝瑞基因	000710.SZ	医药生物	-5.52%	9.65 亿	主板	92500	—	1	1/2	—
龙溪股份	600592.SH	机械设备	-4.01%	4.74 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
松原安全	300893.SZ	汽车	-3.90%	3.94 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST美芝	002856.SZ	建筑装饰	-3.81%	1.38 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

东山精密	002384.SZ	电子	-10.00%	82.03 亿	主板	—	—	3	—	—
源杰科技	688498.SH	电子	-20.00%	72.98 亿	科创板	—	—	4	—	—
江淮汽车	600418.SH	汽车	-10.01%	36.14 亿	主板	—	—	0	—	—
长光华芯	688048.SH	电子	-20.00%	29.98 亿	科创板	—	—	4	—	—
天通股份	600330.SH	电子	-10.00%	25.50 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
沃格光电	603773.SH	电子	-10.00%	20.42 亿	主板	—	—	4	—	—
均胜电子	600699.SH	汽车	-10.02%	18.50 亿	主板	—	—	3	—	—
丽珠集团	000513.SZ	医药生物	-10.00%	10.65 亿	主板	—	—	18	—	—
新华文轩	601811.SH	传媒	-9.99%	8.08 亿	主板	—	—	1	—	—
ST联光	600363.SH	电子	-10.00%	7.76 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
艾力斯	688578.SH	医药生物	-20.00%	5.98 亿	科创板	—	—	1	—	—
华瓷股份	001216.SZ	轻工制造	-10.01%	4.22 亿	主板	—	—	5	—	—

大跌样本

安达股份	920202.BJ	汽车	-21.94%	1.78 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
艾力斯	688578.SH	医药生物	-20.00%	5.98 亿	科创板	—	—	1	—	—
长光华芯	688048.SH	电子	-20.00%	29.98 亿	科创板	—	—	4	—	—
源杰科技	688498.SH	电子	-20.00%	72.98 亿	科创板	—	—	4	—	—
力勤资源	001246.SZ	有色金属	-17.73%	39.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
仕佳光子	688313.SH	通信	-17.40%	48.64 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	-16.65%	33.44 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
广康生化	300804.SZ	基础化工	-15.86%	2.50 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
思瑞浦	688536.SH	电子	-14.37%	16.29 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
传音控股	688036.SH	电子	-14.31%	13.00 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
C鸿富诚	301716.SZ	电子	-14.08%	25.22 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
联合光电	300691.SZ	计算机	-14.06%	5.43 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

力王股份	920627.BJ	电力设备	+29.96%	1	2.14 亿	北交所	100644	141932	3	1/1	556.35 万
世名科技	300522.SZ	基础化工	+20.00%	1	4.20 亿	创业板	93351	93424	1	1/1	3,562.54 万
卓越新能	688196.SH	基础化工	+20.00%	1	2.18 亿	科创板	110046	110046	0	1/1	2,965.54 万
贝特利	301697.SZ	电力设备	+19.99%	1	6.21 亿	创业板	93815	131233	6	1/1	2,742.96 万
领湃科技	300530.SZ	电力设备	+19.98%	1	4.00 亿	创业板	110015	142500	1	1/1	3,415.75 万
尚水智能	301513.SZ	电力设备	+19.98%	0	5.97 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金银河	300619.SZ	电力设备	+17.57%	0	6.98 亿	创业板	100348	—	1	0/0	—
武汉蓝电	920779.BJ	电力设备	+15.84%	0	2.59 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
天宏锂电	920252.BJ	电力设备	+14.26%	0	1.57 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
仁信新材	301395.SZ	基础化工	+13.73%	0	1.82 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
理奇智能	301599.SZ	电力设备	+13.15%	0	5.07 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
海新能科	300072.SZ	基础化工	+11.37%	0	3.63 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

跌幅居前

安达股份	920202.BJ	汽车	-21.94%	1.78 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
艾力斯	688578.SH	医药生物	-20.00%	5.98 亿	科创板	—	—	1	—	—
长光华芯	688048.SH	电子	-20.00%	29.98 亿	科创板	—	—	4	—	—
源杰科技	688498.SH	电子	-20.00%	72.98 亿	科创板	—	—	4	—	—
力勤资源	001246.SZ	有色金属	-17.73%	39.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
仕佳光子	688313.SH	通信	-17.40%	48.64 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	-16.65%	33.44 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
广康生化	300804.SZ	基础化工	-15.86%	2.50 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
思瑞浦	688536.SH	电子	-14.37%	16.29 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
传音控股	688036.SH	电子	-14.31%	13.00 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
C鸿富诚	301716.SZ	电子	-14.08%	25.22 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
联合光电	300691.SZ	计算机	-14.06%	5.43 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3186	-0.42%	38.32%	32.52%	+1.52%
创业板	1406	-1.47%	23.47%	28.73%	+2.49%
科创板	617	-3.30%	13.45%	27.55%	+2.08%
北交所	348	-1.41%	18.39%	12.36%	+1.46%

市值分层

小盘	2779	-0.76%	28.86%	33.79 亿
中盘	1667	-1.24%	30.71%	90.86 亿
大盘	834	-1.70%	32.13%	275.8 亿
超大盘	277	-1.20%	41.88%	1,247.2 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-08。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

酿酒	方向待明	31/30	+1.26%	+4.06%	+26.40%	+0.03%	-0.43%	+2.73%	-1.23%	33.33%	36.67%	127.7 亿	0.75%	85.00%	+2.33%	1	0	-3.69 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	趋势转弱	34/34	-0.74%	-6.99%	-5.28%	-0.74%	-6.94%	-5.45%	-0.00%	32.35%	8.82%	51.22 亿	0.30%	15.00%	+0.33%	0	0	-1.44 亿	100.00%
MLCC	趋势转弱	35/35	-1.36%	-11.38%	-1.94%	-1.49%	-12.27%	-4.54%	-0.13%	25.71%	8.57%	347.1 亿	2.05%	40.00%	-0.29%	0	0	7,499.81 万	100.00%
光刻胶	趋势转弱	80/80	-1.50%	-9.00%	-3.78%	-1.55%	-8.95%	-4.12%	-0.05%	25.00%	21.25%	342.2 亿	2.02%	65.00%	-0.43%	2	0	4.21 亿	100.00%
商业航天	趋势转弱	507/507	-1.62%	-6.44%	-4.14%	-1.61%	-6.41%	-4.34%	+0.00%	25.44%	17.36%	2,210.5 亿	13.05%	15.00%	-0.55%	1	5	-48.67 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	趋势转弱	197/197	-1.80%	-3.37%	-3.16%	-1.80%	-3.32%	-2.84%	-0.00%	13.20%	22.34%	379.2 亿	2.24%	5.00%	-0.73%	1	2	-23.31 亿	100.00%
PCB	趋势转弱	236/234	-1.84%	-10.89%	-0.71%	-1.87%	-10.87%	-0.48%	-0.04%	20.94%	20.09%	1,852.2 亿	10.93%	20.00%	-0.77%	2	2	-35.44 亿	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	-2.16%	-2.91%	+0.08%	-2.20%	-2.94%	+0.01%	-0.04%	19.64%	50.00%	991.2 亿	5.85%	85.00%	-1.09%	2	2	-13.32 亿	100.00%
减速器	趋势转弱	139/139	-2.23%	-4.03%	-3.88%	-2.23%	-3.95%	-4.06%	+0.00%	17.99%	23.74%	318.8 亿	1.88%	40.00%	-1.17%	0	0	-15.08 亿	100.00%
物理AI	趋势转弱	463/462	-2.26%	-6.33%	-4.77%	-2.27%	-6.49%	-5.07%	-0.01%	17.10%	19.05%	1,848.3 亿	10.91%	20.00%	-1.19%	2	3	-113.6 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	趋势转弱	229/229	-2.37%	-9.39%	-7.84%	-2.34%	-9.18%	-8.06%	+0.03%	14.41%	9.61%	1,514.5 亿	8.94%	15.00%	-1.30%	2	0	-104.0 亿	100.00%
先进封装	趋势转弱	204/204	-3.32%	-12.24%	-4.93%	-3.33%	-12.21%	-5.17%	-0.01%	12.75%	6.86%	1,989.5 亿	11.74%	30.00%	-2.25%	1	2	-91.57 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	趋势转弱	206/205	-3.48%	-12.48%	-5.70%	-3.45%	-12.51%	-5.84%	+0.02%	10.24%	8.78%	2,261.9 亿	13.35%	30.00%	-2.41%	1	1	-141.5 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	趋势转弱	43/43	-3.68%	-13.90%	-6.81%	-3.44%	-13.78%	-6.99%	+0.24%	11.63%	6.98%	301.4 亿	1.78%	20.00%	-2.61%	0	1	-19.86 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	趋势转弱	57/56	-4.07%	-12.12%	-4.50%	-4.02%	-12.17%	-4.89%	+0.04%	7.14%	7.14%	572.0 亿	3.38%	35.00%	-3.00%	0	1	-40.63 亿	100.00%
CPO	趋势转弱	212/212	-4.17%	-13.60%	-3.47%	-4.20%	-13.92%	-3.86%	-0.03%	5.66%	8.49%	2,935.5 亿	17.33%	20.00%	-3.10%	0	5	-191.9 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：张裕A（000869.SZ）+10.03%、会稽山（601579.SH）+6.17%、威龙股份（603779.SH）+3.47%

领跌：*ST尼雅（600084.SH）-4.27%、古越龙山（600059.SH）-3.18%、金徽酒（603919.SH）-3.10%

金属新材料 · 趋势转弱

领涨：深圳新星（603978.SH）+3.67%、春光集团（301531.SZ）+2.94%、天力复合（920576.BJ）+2.83%

领跌：新莱福（301323.SZ）-5.58%、龙磁科技（300835.SZ）-4.82%、有研粉材（688456.SH）-3.86%

MLCC · 趋势转弱

领涨：康达新材（002669.SZ）+7.06%、东材科技（601208.SH）+5.60%、裕兴股份（300305.SZ）+2.37%

领跌：凯盛科技（600552.SH）-5.94%、斯迪克（300806.SZ）-5.64%、洁美科技（002859.SZ）-5.29%

光刻胶 · 趋势转弱

领涨：世名科技（300522.SZ）+20.00%、理奇智能（301599.SZ）+13.15%、兴业股份（603928.SH）+10.02%

领跌：阿拉丁（688179.SH）-10.77%、莱伯泰科（688056.SH）-9.26%、茂莱光学（688502.SH）-7.65%

商业航天 · 趋势转弱

领涨：顺灏股份（002565.SZ）+9.95%、西部材料（002149.SZ）+8.45%、国博电子（688375.SH）+8.09%

领跌：长光华芯（688048.SH）-20.00%、迈信林（688685.SH）-13.43%、腾景科技（688195.SH）-12.27%

文化传媒 · 趋势转弱

领涨：新华传媒（600825.SH）+10.05%、浙富控股（002266.SZ）+4.97%、中国电影（600977.SH）+3.96%

领跌：中文在线（300364.SZ）-12.75%、新华文轩（601811.SH）-9.99%、*ST岭南（002717.SZ）-9.68%

PCB · 趋势转弱

领涨：世名科技（300522.SZ）+20.00%、传艺科技（002866.SZ）+10.00%、扬帆新材（300637.SZ）+8.23%

领跌：帝尔激光（300776.SZ）-12.81%、东山精密（002384.SZ）-10.00%、天通股份（600330.SH）-10.00%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：华北制药（600812.SH）+10.04%、联环药业（600513.SH）+10.01%、海辰药业（300584.SZ）+8.40%

领跌：艾力斯（688578.SH）-20.00%、百普赛斯（301080.SZ）-12.48%、赛伦生物（688163.SH）-11.75%

减速器 · 趋势转弱

领涨：*ST春兴（002547.SZ）+5.81%、金杨精密（301210.SZ）+3.91%、天润工业（002283.SZ）+3.32%

领跌：美利信（301307.SZ）-8.65%、东风科技（600081.SH）-8.16%、英搏尔（300681.SZ）-7.98%

物理AI · 趋势转弱

领涨：力王股份（920627.BJ）+29.96%、东贝集团（601956.SH）+9.96%、先导智能（300450.SZ）+7.58%

领跌：思瑞浦（688536.SH）-14.37%、纳芯微（688052.SH）-11.23%、富瀚微（300613.SZ）-10.41%

液冷服务器 · 趋势转弱

领涨：上海洗霸（603200.SH）+9.99%、龙蟠科技（603906.SH）+9.98%、圣阳股份（002580.SZ）+9.43%

领跌：中石科技（300684.SZ）-16.65%、美利信（301307.SZ）-8.65%、新莱应材（300260.SZ）-8.49%

先进封装 · 趋势转弱

领涨：兴业股份（603928.SH）+10.02%、国博电子（688375.SH）+8.09%、宏昌电子（603002.SH）+7.79%

领跌：炬光科技（688167.SH）-13.43%、帝尔激光（300776.SZ）-12.81%、微导纳米（688147.SH）-11.99%

存储芯片 · 趋势转弱

领涨：园林股份（605303.SH）+10.01%、信宇人（688573.SH）+5.85%、深科达（688328.SH）+4.75%

领跌：炬光科技（688167.SH）-13.43%、圣邦股份（300661.SZ）-12.89%、微导纳米（688147.SH）-11.99%

电子化学品 · 趋势转弱

领涨：同宇新材（301630.SZ）+7.99%、宏昌电子（603002.SH）+7.79%、嘉德利（603435.SH）+2.30%

领跌：中石科技（300684.SZ）-16.65%、天通股份（600330.SH）-10.00%、天承科技（688603.SH）-7.45%

玻璃基板 · 趋势转弱

领涨：利元亨（688499.SH）+6.64%、雷曼光电（300162.SZ）+6.46%、慧谷新材（301683.SZ）+1.76%

领跌：帝尔激光（300776.SZ）-12.81%、美迪凯（688079.SH）-10.47%、戈碧迦（920438.BJ）-10.46%

CPO · 趋势转弱

领涨：深科达（688328.SH）+4.75%、科翔股份（300903.SZ）+3.59%、三安光电（600703.SH）+3.48%

领跌：长光华芯（688048.SH）-20.00%、源杰科技（688498.SH）-20.00%、仕佳光子（688313.SH）-17.40%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

红利防御	103	+1.08%	+0.96%	+1.79%	0.00%	52.27 亿	29.13%	5/11	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · —
资源周期	66	-0.17%	-0.99%	-5.72%	-9.13%	33.94 亿	60.61%	3/13	国泰中证煤炭ETF · —
金融地产	51	-0.77%	-1.48%	-4.48%	-6.69%	59.71 亿	33.33%	5/4	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · —
大盘宽基	86	-0.99%	-1.16%	-4.06%	-5.05%	81.64 亿	22.09%	4/2	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · —
消费	48	-1.75%	-0.52%	-1.90%	-2.67%	12.71 亿	45.83%	1/7	鹏华中证酒ETF · —
中小盘宽基	153	-2.90%	-2.72%	-7.68%	-6.16%	262.5 亿	73.86%	37/14	易方达创业板ETF · -0.58%
医药健康	53	-4.13%	-2.96%	-2.74%	-0.31%	50.53 亿	52.83%	2/23	国泰上证科创板创新药ETF · —
AI与半导体	143	-4.30%	-3.97%	-12.06%	-8.47%	325.6 亿	48.25%	37/13	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · —

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

公用防御	公用事业、交通运输、环保	400	+0.84%	+0.13%	-0.95%	65.25%	44.00%	4.49%	6	0
资源周期	煤炭、石油石化、基础化工、钢铁、有色金属	722	+0.14%	-3.30%	-4.35%	46.68%	27.84%	11.32%	6	0
大消费	食品饮料、农林牧渔、家用电器、社会服务、商贸零售	526	-0.46%	-2.07%	-2.88%	34.41%	27.57%	5.39%	4	0
基建链	建筑材料、建筑装饰	230	-0.74%	-2.86%	-2.21%	30.43%	33.48%	2.42%	2	1
金融地产	银行、非银金融、房地产	212	-0.81%	-0.66%	-0.50%	29.72%	49.53%	4.95%	1	0
高端制造	电力设备、国防军工、汽车、机械设备	1500	-0.93%	-3.96%	-4.19%	30.93%	26.07%	22.03%	15	4
医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	539	-1.93%	-2.52%	+0.78%	19.11%	52.32%	8.62%	2	2
AI硬件与数字经济	计算机、通信、电子	1002	-2.94%	-9.08%	-5.68%	10.58%	13.87%	37.16%	3	7

近五个交易日

2026-09-24	29.1	54	20.15%	1.6691 万亿	53	5
2026-09-28	26.1	39	16.16%	1.7167 万亿	35	5
2026-09-29	55.6	67.4	62.44%	1.4216 万亿	57	6
2026-09-30	46.3	61.3	46.16%	1.4501 万亿	56	7
2026-10-08	42.7	52.1	30.56%	1.6943 万亿	45	8

边际变化

成交额：扩张 · +16.84%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -15.60%

涨停家数：压缩 · -11

最高连板：抬升 · 1

五日成交中位：1.6691 万亿 · 温度区间：26.1–55.6 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：酿酒 4次、减速器 3次、创新药 2次、文化传媒 2次、CPO 1次、MLCC 1次

行业：公用事业 2次、煤炭 2次、银行 2次、食品饮料 2次、传媒 1次、医药生物 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日+16.8%，上涨覆盖30.6%，五日成交中位16691.1亿元。

方向承接 · 酿酒当日收益+1.26%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 电力设备涨停11家，最高4板。

负反馈 · 跌停16家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 乐观条件已满足

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 16691.1亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 酿酒

确认：酿酒继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 17.9%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖30.6%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 60 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4
2026-08-19	27.1	35.8	8.10%	2.5300 万亿	38	3
2026-08-20	63.1	50.9	73.92%	2.0939 万亿	84	4
2026-08-21	53.7	45.7	45.19%	1.8923 万亿	58	3
2026-08-24	41.8	47.2	26.33%	2.0212 万亿	48	4
2026-08-25	62.5	63.9	76.34%	1.8443 万亿	70	5
2026-08-26	65.4	64.1	53.11%	1.8218 万亿	56	5
2026-08-27	77.3	82.6	61.19%	2.1410 万亿	78	6
2026-08-28	51.9	81.1	54.32%	2.1177 万亿	83	7
2026-08-31	68.9	67.3	57.37%	2.1454 万亿	89	6
2026-09-01	53.4	81.3	61.07%	2.0519 万亿	86	7
2026-09-02	34.1	48.5	27.78%	1.8203 万亿	55	5
2026-09-03	51.2	45.9	33.27%	1.7802 万亿	46	5
2026-09-04	52.8	46.3	44.05%	2.0510 万亿	42	5
2026-09-07	64.9	86.4	57.07%	1.9642 万亿	95	6
2026-09-08	63.9	75	61.58%	1.9782 万亿	75	4
2026-09-09	43.6	53.3	32.32%	1.8731 万亿	49	5
2026-09-10	25.9	41	17.21%	1.6623 万亿	40	4
2026-09-11	34.2	46.1	11.59%	1.9870 万亿	40	4
2026-09-14	41.7	61	56.32%	1.6430 万亿	57	4
2026-09-15	27.6	40.4	20.19%	1.6253 万亿	32	5
2026-09-16	76	85.4	75.14%	1.8525 万亿	91	6
2026-09-17	42.9	59.5	46.39%	1.8365 万亿	50	5
2026-09-18	79	82.2	76.25%	2.0929 万亿	80	4
2026-09-21	75	86.2	81.69%	2.0481 万亿	106	5
2026-09-22	61.1	73.2	42.74%	2.1537 万亿	65	6
2026-09-23	33.2	47	34.04%	1.7831 万亿	51	4
2026-09-24	29.1	54	20.15%	1.6691 万亿	53	5
2026-09-28	26.1	39	16.16%	1.7167 万亿	35	5
2026-09-29	55.6	67.4	62.44%	1.4216 万亿	57	6
2026-09-30	46.3	61.3	46.16%	1.4501 万亿	56	7
2026-10-08	42.7	52.1	30.56%	1.6943 万亿	45	8

情绪九维 52.1

连板高度15
15
输入与公式
8 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数5.4
5.4
输入与公式
45 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率7.56
7.56
输入与公式
0.5357142857142857 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率7.14
7.14
输入与公式
0.17857142857142858 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价5.11
5.11
输入与公式
0.001284800000000001 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":16,"largeLoss":173} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度4.58
4.58
输入与公式
0.30556055425589346 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比2.53
2.53
输入与公式
{"limitUp":45,"limitDown":16} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.72
4.72
输入与公式
0.9361649429818326 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	154	2.77%	+7.34%	+6.49%
趋势延续	216	3.89%	+2.44%	+1.94%
低位修复	814	14.65%	+1.30%	+0.93%
中间状态	4373	78.69%	-1.98%	-1.58%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 56 家 · 今日晋级 10 家 · 晋级率 17.86%

晋级名单

新华传媒	600825.SH	传媒	8	+10.05%
时代万恒	600241.SH	电力设备	4	+9.98%
九阳股份	002242.SZ	家用电器	4	+10.00%
上海洗霸	603200.SH	环保	3	+9.99%
传艺科技	002866.SZ	电子	3	+10.00%
紫竹高科	002058.SZ	电力设备	3	+10.00%
园林股份	605303.SH	建筑装饰	3	+10.01%
龙蟠科技	603906.SH	电力设备	2	+9.98%
陆家嘴	600663.SH	房地产	2	+9.99%
兴业股份	603928.SH	基础化工	2	+10.02%
顺灏股份	002565.SZ	轻工制造	1	+9.95%
招商南油	601975.SH	交通运输	1	+9.96%
金牛化工	600722.SH	基础化工	1	+9.99%
中远海能	600026.SH	交通运输	1	+10.02%
联环药业	600513.SH	医药生物	1	+10.01%
贝特利	301697.SZ	电力设备	1	+19.99%
山东墨龙	002490.SZ	机械设备	1	+9.99%
华北制药	600812.SH	医药生物	1	+10.04%
彩蝶实业	603073.SH	基础化工	1	+10.01%
丰元股份	002805.SZ	电力设备	1	+10.02%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	33	7	16	10	21.21%	48.48%	30.30%
弱势方向修复	33	16	0	17	48.48%	0.00%	51.52%
方向剪刀差	22	16	1	5	72.73%	4.55%	22.73%
涨停生态	33	9	11	13	27.27%	33.33%	39.39%
市场持续性	33	2	14	17	6.06%	42.42%	51.52%

近20个交易日

强势方向延续	20	5	9	6	25.00%	45.00%	30.00%
弱势方向修复	20	10	0	10	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
方向剪刀差	14	8	1	5	57.14%	7.14%	35.71%
涨停生态	20	6	9	5	30.00%	45.00%	25.00%
市场持续性	20	0	9	11	0.00%	45.00%	55.00%

共 170 条假设