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2026-09-28

结论与证据

全A收盘为898家上涨、4554家下跌，上涨占比16.16%；成交1.7167万亿元，环比+2.85%。单日广度显著转弱，但26.2%样本仍站在MA20上方，同时有35家封板、60家跌停，更接近结构分歧，而不是所有趋势同步失效。

广度承压 · 量能扩张 · MA20上方26% · 35家封板 · 温度26.1

支持证据

16方向中酿酒当日+3.78%居前；50家触板、封板率70.0%，最高5板。

反证与边界

通信当日等权-5.19%，CPO方向-6.56%；成交额环比+2.85%，资金流分类代理-914.0亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 1.7167 万亿
成交环比: +2.85%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 898 / 4554 / 105
上涨覆盖: 16.16%
中位涨幅: -1.85%
MA20上方: 26.24%
20日新高 / 新低: 173 / 1972
涨停 / 跌停: 35 / 60
触板 / 未封: 50 / 15
封板率: 70.00%
最高连板: 5 板

收盘温度 26.1

广度5.66
5.66
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势5.25
5.25
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态5.53
5.53
输入与公式
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指数0
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 39

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数4.2
4.2
输入与公式
35.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率9.88
9.88
输入与公式
0.70 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率5.28
5.28
输入与公式
0.13 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价0.14
0.14
输入与公式
-0.02 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":60,"largeLoss":410} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度2.42
2.42
输入与公式
0.16 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比1.97
1.97
输入与公式
{"limitUp":35,"limitDown":60} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.43
4.43
输入与公式
0.92 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,823.62	-1.67%	8,045.4 亿
科创50	1,555.98	-4.06%	805.9 亿
深证成指	12,858.75	-3.44%	4,427.3 亿
创业板指	3,139.82	-4.53%	1,732.6 亿
中证1000	7,294.17	-3.65%	3,466.0 亿
国证2000	9,641.41	-3.48%	5,263.8 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	117	2.11%	+6.93%	+6.12%
趋势延续	239	4.30%	+1.47%	+1.16%
低位修复	380	6.84%	+0.89%	+0.57%
中间状态	4821	86.76%	-2.89%	-2.27%

三项风险

单日市场广度明显承压

下跌4554家，上涨占比仅16.16%；中位数涨幅-1.85%。

少数方向逆势承压

电子、通信分别为-4.68%、-5.19%。

放量后的次日承接仍需验证

成交额环比+2.85%，50家触板中15家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度与趋势存量是否继续背离

若上涨占比修复且MA20上方比例保持高位，分歧仍偏结构性；两者同步下滑则风险升级。

酿酒强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

CPO弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日70.0%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,823.62 · MA5 3,910.11 · MA10 3,897.92 · MA20 3,920.31

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,920.31 · 近10日最低 3,806.67 · 近20日最低 3,806.67；压力：近10日最高 3,967.68 · 近20日最高 3,995.18

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%
2026-08-18	3,979.49	3,994.18	3,955.60	3,990.30	+0.19%
2026-08-19	3,952.12	3,961.14	3,879.58	3,894.42	-2.40%
2026-08-20	3,907.21	3,925.06	3,888.10	3,903.72	+0.24%
2026-08-21	3,891.18	3,912.13	3,883.79	3,905.20	+0.04%
2026-08-24	3,902.70	3,910.24	3,855.35	3,882.01	-0.59%
2026-08-25	3,863.37	3,896.21	3,850.86	3,889.44	+0.19%
2026-08-26	3,881.74	3,926.44	3,881.74	3,912.52	+0.59%
2026-08-27	3,911.89	3,958.03	3,909.31	3,956.57	+1.13%
2026-08-28	3,950.24	3,970.31	3,947.80	3,952.18	-0.11%
2026-08-31	3,926.53	3,986.30	3,926.50	3,986.30	+0.86%
2026-09-01	3,979.88	3,995.18	3,976.47	3,979.89	-0.16%
2026-09-02	3,963.07	3,965.81	3,932.25	3,941.39	-0.97%
2026-09-03	3,952.79	3,968.11	3,930.45	3,942.09	+0.02%
2026-09-04	3,955.55	3,980.20	3,915.22	3,930.12	-0.30%
2026-09-07	3,942.51	3,948.42	3,916.49	3,932.70	+0.07%
2026-09-08	3,935.55	3,951.32	3,925.72	3,940.55	+0.20%
2026-09-09	3,943.92	3,958.12	3,933.47	3,951.51	+0.28%
2026-09-10	3,939.09	3,949.25	3,927.35	3,934.40	-0.43%
2026-09-11	3,910.92	3,912.32	3,852.03	3,888.11	-1.18%
2026-09-14	3,867.02	3,895.51	3,867.02	3,885.33	-0.07%
2026-09-15	3,879.73	3,891.62	3,858.15	3,864.28	-0.54%
2026-09-16	3,861.75	3,894.66	3,842.72	3,891.60	+0.71%
2026-09-17	3,877.00	3,898.84	3,866.89	3,875.60	-0.41%
2026-09-18	3,891.96	3,919.67	3,888.50	3,911.87	+0.94%
2026-09-21	3,920.27	3,950.94	3,918.13	3,949.91	+0.97%
2026-09-22	3,963.81	3,967.68	3,945.42	3,952.13	+0.06%
2026-09-23	3,951.37	3,951.52	3,934.46	3,936.52	-0.39%
2026-09-24	3,925.32	3,930.50	3,888.37	3,888.37	-1.22%
2026-09-28	3,878.41	3,878.41	3,806.67	3,823.62	-1.67%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

公用事业	方向待明	139	-0.16%	-2.57%	-1.76%	-0.35%	41.01%	17.99%	305.7 亿	1.78%	2	1	26.03	1.59
银行	方向待明	42	-0.21%	-0.40%	+1.11%	-0.28%	28.57%	14.29%	268.0 亿	1.56%	0	0	6.02	0.55
食品饮料	方向待明	126	-0.22%	+0.36%	-2.79%	-0.19%	45.24%	22.22%	246.5 亿	1.44%	1	1	24.80	2.24
煤炭	方向待明	33	-0.50%	+0.64%	-4.98%	-0.77%	30.30%	18.18%	102.7 亿	0.60%	0	0	25.67	1.21
石油石化	方向待明	48	-0.62%	-0.76%	-4.61%	-0.64%	35.42%	14.58%	132.6 亿	0.77%	0	0	28.59	2.04
医药生物	方向待明	507	-0.76%	+2.04%	-0.38%	-0.46%	34.71%	46.94%	1,043.0 亿	6.08%	3	2	38.43	2.52
房地产	方向待明	95	-0.82%	+1.08%	-0.19%	-0.37%	32.63%	49.47%	191.5 亿	1.12%	2	2	33.45	1.20
交通运输	方向待明	128	-0.96%	-0.84%	-1.55%	-0.81%	25.00%	23.44%	209.7 亿	1.22%	0	0	17.53	1.44
农林牧渔	方向待明	114	-1.05%	-2.06%	-3.74%	-0.90%	28.07%	14.04%	252.9 亿	1.47%	2	2	44.08	2.47
美容护理	方向待明	32	-1.15%	+0.46%	+1.11%	-0.95%	25.00%	37.50%	41.78 亿	0.24%	0	0	26.88	2.44
家用电器	方向待明	101	-1.23%	+0.91%	+1.83%	-1.06%	25.74%	39.60%	193.7 亿	1.13%	1	0	35.59	2.51
综合	方向待明	20	-1.23%	-1.41%	-4.14%	-1.10%	25.00%	15.00%	31.58 亿	0.18%	0	0	47.55	2.93
商贸零售	方向待明	100	-1.30%	-1.80%	-1.68%	-1.07%	21.00%	19.00%	142.3 亿	0.83%	1	1	30.07	1.91
汽车	方向待明	324	-1.55%	-0.68%	-1.75%	-1.54%	18.21%	28.09%	597.8 亿	3.48%	4	1	29.47	2.39
非银金融	退潮观察	77	-1.58%	-3.04%	-6.48%	-1.60%	5.19%	9.09%	283.2 亿	1.65%	0	0	14.21	1.15
钢铁	退潮观察	44	-1.58%	-3.14%	-7.00%	-1.32%	4.55%	2.27%	56.31 亿	0.33%	0	0	21.42	1.14
轻工制造	方向待明	168	-1.83%	-0.58%	+0.13%	-1.54%	18.45%	33.33%	176.4 亿	1.03%	1	3	35.27	2.27
计算机	方向待明	357	-1.92%	-1.30%	-2.24%	-1.83%	13.17%	24.37%	798.1 亿	4.65%	4	1	73.44	3.53
纺织服饰	方向待明	107	-1.97%	-0.62%	-2.25%	-1.38%	10.28%	32.71%	115.7 亿	0.67%	0	1	30.30	1.91
环保	方向待明	134	-2.06%	-2.01%	-3.75%	-1.66%	11.19%	20.90%	121.2 亿	0.71%	0	0	28.46	1.95
社会服务	方向待明	86	-2.12%	-1.33%	-2.44%	-1.76%	10.47%	22.09%	114.0 亿	0.66%	0	1	37.22	2.86
建筑材料	方向待明	76	-2.15%	-1.63%	-1.53%	-1.50%	11.84%	25.00%	277.8 亿	1.62%	1	1	41.58	1.59
建筑装饰	方向待明	154	-2.27%	-2.37%	-2.35%	-1.70%	11.69%	20.78%	196.0 亿	1.14%	0	1	29.19	2.13
电力设备	退潮观察	418	-2.51%	-3.63%	-4.89%	-2.43%	11.96%	18.90%	1,255.3 亿	7.31%	3	1	41.80	2.61
传媒	方向待明	131	-2.56%	-1.60%	+3.47%	-2.27%	8.40%	16.79%	336.2 亿	1.96%	2	3	39.45	2.96
基础化工	方向待明	450	-2.71%	-1.81%	-3.89%	-2.21%	8.44%	22.00%	887.9 亿	5.17%	3	7	34.62	2.21
机械设备	方向待明	617	-2.89%	-2.02%	-1.97%	-2.35%	11.51%	30.63%	1,494.3 亿	8.70%	3	6	50.92	3.16
国防军工	退潮观察	140	-3.21%	-3.62%	-1.01%	-2.87%	7.14%	18.57%	451.1 亿	2.63%	0	1	79.01	3.67
有色金属	退潮观察	146	-3.73%	-5.95%	-11.39%	-3.73%	2.74%	6.85%	741.4 亿	4.32%	0	2	29.72	3.14
电子	退潮观察	518	-4.68%	-4.86%	-0.36%	-4.69%	3.67%	32.43%	4,689.8 亿	27.32%	2	10	74.85	5.16
通信	退潮观察	125	-5.19%	-6.20%	-3.33%	-4.66%	4.80%	10.40%	1,412.3 亿	8.23%	0	12	94.39	4.52

涨停生态

首板 28 家 · 多板 7 家 · 昨日涨停 53 家 · 今日晋级 7 家 · 晋级率 13.21%

5 板 · 1 家 · 新华传媒

3 板 · 3 家 · 金辰股份、福建水泥、雪龙集团

2 板 · 3 家 · 吉鑫科技、大业股份、襄阳轴承

1 板 · 28 家 · 江淮汽车、会稽山、巨力索具、众泰汽车、跨境通、宏柏新材、丽珠集团、津药药业

行业聚类

汽车 · 4 家 · 最高 3 板 · 雪龙集团、襄阳轴承、江淮汽车、众泰汽车

计算机 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 启明信息、国新健康、永信至诚、中新赛克

医药生物 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 丽珠集团、津药药业、ST万邦

基础化工 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 宏柏新材、善水科技、醋化股份

机械设备 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 大业股份、巨力索具、泰尔股份

电力设备 · 3 家 · 最高 3 板 · 金辰股份、吉鑫科技、时代万恒

传媒 · 2 家 · 最高 5 板 · 新华传媒、博纳影业

公用事业 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 浙江新能、新筑股份

农林牧渔 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 道道全、东瑞股份

房地产 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · *ST华幸、深物业A

电子 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 五方光电、深华发A

商贸零售 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 跨境通

家用电器 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 九阳股份

建筑材料 · 1 家 · 最高 3 板 · 福建水泥

轻工制造 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 通达创智

食品饮料 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 会稽山

连续晋级与首板

新华传媒	600825.SH	传媒	+10.04%	5	4,298.55 万	主板	92501	92501	0	5/5	23.86 亿
金辰股份	603396.SH	电力设备	+9.99%	3	9.11 亿	主板	93002	150000	2	3/3	4,020.38 万
福建水泥	600802.SH	建筑材料	+9.97%	3	6.04 亿	主板	93441	93605	1	3/3	6,108.93 万
雪龙集团	603949.SH	汽车	+10.00%	3	2.99 亿	主板	93000	93845	1	3/3	5,084.24 万
吉鑫科技	601218.SH	电力设备	+10.00%	2	15.15 亿	主板	142614	143314	1	2/2	2,676.04 万
大业股份	603278.SH	机械设备	+10.00%	2	6.64 亿	主板	93024	134618	1	2/2	4,474.89 万
襄阳轴承	000678.SZ	汽车	+10.02%	2	3.69 亿	主板	93027	93112	1	2/2	7,618.71 万
江淮汽车	600418.SH	汽车	+9.99%	1	43.93 亿	主板	102254	105312	1	3/4	1.77 亿
会稽山	601579.SH	食品饮料	+9.99%	1	22.24 亿	主板	93022	150000	4	5/9	1,935.94 万
巨力索具	002342.SZ	机械设备	+10.01%	1	20.09 亿	主板	105839	141139	1	1/1	7,827.45 万
众泰汽车	000980.SZ	汽车	+9.80%	1	10.51 亿	主板	94909	101333	1	1/1	5,175.63 万
跨境通	002640.SZ	商贸零售	+10.00%	1	10.50 亿	主板	93051	94054	1	1/1	1.12 亿
宏柏新材	605366.SH	基础化工	+9.98%	1	10.00 亿	主板	143706	143706	0	1/1	4,489.28 万
丽珠集团	000513.SZ	医药生物	+10.01%	1	8.43 亿	主板	93224	93900	1	1/1	6,637.18 万
津药药业	600488.SH	医药生物	+10.00%	1	6.21 亿	主板	130209	142745	1	1/1	3,095.66 万
通达创智	001368.SZ	轻工制造	+10.00%	1	4.59 亿	主板	145645	145645	0	1/1	510.38 万
五方光电	002962.SZ	电子	+9.99%	1	4.58 亿	主板	93403	130530	3	1/1	2,731.88 万
浙江新能	600032.SH	公用事业	+10.07%	1	4.42 亿	主板	94826	94917	1	1/1	6,976.40 万
ST万邦	002082.SZ	医药生物	+10.00%	1	4.39 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
启明信息	002232.SZ	计算机	+10.00%	1	3.94 亿	主板	110600	110600	0	1/1	1.07 亿

晋级未完成（最多16只）

新华文轩	601811.SH	传媒	-8.99%	13.18 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
泰慕士	001234.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.00%	3.40 亿	主板	—	92500	0	—	9,249.74 万
奥佳华	002614.SZ	家用电器	+2.04%	15.74 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
天威视讯	002238.SZ	传媒	-9.96%	1.88 亿	主板	—	93148	0	—	1.49 亿
集泰股份	002909.SZ	基础化工	-10.01%	1.26 亿	主板	—	93036	0	—	2.12 亿
东方中科	002819.SZ	机械设备	-6.34%	7.67 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
上工申贝	600843.SH	机械设备	-6.33%	4.77 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
康强电子	002119.SZ	电子	+0.34%	36.47 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华茂股份	000850.SZ	纺织服饰	+0.39%	11.30 亿	主板	93045	—	2	2/3	—
路桥信息	920748.BJ	计算机	-11.23%	2.77 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
内蒙新华	603230.SH	传媒	-10.02%	2.62 亿	主板	—	93310	0	—	3.10 亿
泉阳泉	600189.SH	食品饮料	-10.00%	3.79 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华脉科技	603042.SH	通信	-9.98%	3.24 亿	主板	—	94052	1	—	1.37 亿
三星电气	601567.SH	电力设备	-9.97%	8.57 亿	主板	—	144732	18	—	768.38 万
厦工股份	600815.SH	机械设备	-9.89%	2.68 亿	主板	—	93512	4	—	1.23 亿
国统股份	002205.SZ	建筑材料	-9.23%	2.74 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

中天科技	600522.SH	通信	-10.00%	75.38 亿	主板	—	150000	4	—	1,935.58 万
亨通光电	600487.SH	通信	-10.00%	70.83 亿	主板	—	95510	4	—	13.24 亿
华工科技	000988.SZ	机械设备	-10.00%	56.88 亿	主板	—	145133	0	—	240.42 万
风华高科	000636.SZ	电子	-10.00%	47.99 亿	主板	—	143733	3	—	8,471.07 万
永鼎股份	600105.SH	通信	-9.99%	37.28 亿	主板	—	141809	43	—	6,284.77 万
山东黄金	600547.SH	有色金属	-10.01%	37.16 亿	主板	—	144346	53	—	952.75 万
东材科技	601208.SH	基础化工	-9.99%	36.76 亿	主板	—	142104	9	—	9,345.17 万
哈药股份	600664.SH	医药生物	-9.95%	34.27 亿	主板	—	145613	18	—	2,596.91 万
烽火通信	600498.SH	通信	-10.00%	27.08 亿	主板	—	131248	30	—	8,830.65 万
通鼎互联	002491.SZ	通信	-10.00%	24.77 亿	主板	—	101206	5	—	2.62 亿
江海股份	002484.SZ	电子	-10.01%	20.91 亿	主板	—	141824	14	—	318.50 万
星网锐捷	002396.SZ	通信	-9.99%	20.42 亿	主板	—	131115	10	—	9,214.23 万

大跌样本

百瑞吉	920201.BJ	医药生物	-28.11%	2.48 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
凯达重工	920025.BJ	机械设备	-25.12%	3.98 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
奥联电子	300585.SZ	汽车	-17.97%	2.55 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金丹科技	300829.SZ	基础化工	-17.63%	10.30 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
优利德	688628.SH	机械设备	-17.04%	14.89 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
百纳千成	300291.SZ	传媒	-16.44%	6.34 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	-15.56%	17.26 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
燕麦科技	688312.SH	机械设备	-14.92%	6.59 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
迅捷兴	688655.SH	电子	-14.53%	9.39 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
长盈通	688143.SH	通信	-13.74%	22.65 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
星环科技	688031.SH	计算机	-13.74%	7.42 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
金戈新材	920083.BJ	基础化工	-13.71%	2.20 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

善水科技	301190.SZ	基础化工	+20.01%	1	3.83 亿	创业板	134700	134700	0	1/1	6,114.88 万
永信至诚	688244.SH	计算机	+20.00%	1	2.71 亿	科创板	110448	110448	0	1/1	2,978.27 万
嘉益股份	301004.SZ	轻工制造	+17.06%	0	1.77 亿	创业板	94454	—	1	0/0	—
洛轴股份	301699.SZ	电力设备	+14.46%	0	17.10 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
雷曼光电	300162.SZ	电子	+12.89%	0	8.22 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
麒麟信安	688152.SH	计算机	+11.98%	0	3.58 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
鸿智科技	920926.BJ	家用电器	+10.89%	0	6,237.20 万	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
海顺新材	300501.SZ	轻工制造	+10.58%	0	1.52 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST华幸	600340.SH	房地产	+10.26%	1	2.31 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
浙江新能	600032.SH	公用事业	+10.07%	1	4.42 亿	主板	94826	94917	1	1/1	6,976.40 万
国新健康	000503.SZ	计算机	+10.06%	1	3.62 亿	主板	93112	94727	1	1/1	3,373.53 万
新华传媒	600825.SH	传媒	+10.04%	5	4,298.55 万	主板	92501	92501	0	5/5	23.86 亿

跌幅居前

百瑞吉	920201.BJ	医药生物	-28.11%	2.48 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
凯达重工	920025.BJ	机械设备	-25.12%	3.98 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
奥联电子	300585.SZ	汽车	-17.97%	2.55 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金丹科技	300829.SZ	基础化工	-17.63%	10.30 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
优利德	688628.SH	机械设备	-17.04%	14.89 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
百纳千成	300291.SZ	传媒	-16.44%	6.34 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	-15.56%	17.26 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
燕麦科技	688312.SH	机械设备	-14.92%	6.59 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
迅捷兴	688655.SH	电子	-14.53%	9.39 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
长盈通	688143.SH	通信	-13.74%	22.65 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
星环科技	688031.SH	计算机	-13.74%	7.42 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
金戈新材	920083.BJ	基础化工	-13.71%	2.20 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3189	-1.70%	20.29%	23.02%	+1.51%
创业板	1404	-2.82%	11.40%	30.48%	+2.43%
科创板	617	-3.61%	8.91%	40.19%	+2.03%
北交所	347	-2.40%	10.37%	13.83%	+1.51%

市值分层

小盘	2779	-1.80%	17.06%	33.87 亿
中盘	1667	-2.75%	13.62%	90.97 亿
大盘	834	-2.69%	16.31%	274.3 亿
超大盘	277	-2.28%	22.02%	1,244.8 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

酿酒	方向待明	31/30	+3.78%	+9.82%	+28.16%	-0.18%	+0.35%	+2.13%	-3.96%	23.33%	26.67%	117.6 亿	0.69%	80.00%	+6.02%	1	0	696.24 万	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	-0.64%	+1.30%	-2.01%	-0.64%	+1.39%	-2.07%	+0.01%	33.57%	40.71%	709.6 亿	4.13%	55.00%	+1.60%	3	2	-16.90 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	-1.77%	-0.39%	+0.06%	-1.77%	-0.35%	-0.10%	-0.00%	18.71%	36.69%	355.0 亿	2.07%	50.00%	+0.47%	1	0	-15.33 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/197	-2.35%	-2.03%	+1.06%	-2.35%	-1.97%	+0.98%	+0.00%	10.66%	13.71%	418.2 亿	2.44%	5.00%	-0.11%	2	6	-21.87 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/462	-2.93%	-2.67%	-1.85%	-3.00%	-2.77%	-2.00%	-0.07%	9.96%	25.97%	2,022.6 亿	11.78%	30.00%	-0.69%	2	8	-174.0 亿	100.00%
商业航天	趋势转弱	507/506	-3.36%	-3.57%	-1.53%	-3.37%	-3.59%	-1.75%	-0.01%	8.10%	23.72%	2,514.0 亿	14.64%	35.00%	-1.12%	4	12	-187.4 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	趋势转弱	57/57	-3.58%	-4.39%	-1.00%	-3.54%	-4.19%	-0.96%	+0.04%	7.02%	36.84%	703.5 亿	4.10%	75.00%	-1.34%	0	1	-28.01 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	趋势转弱	34/34	-3.75%	-3.56%	-4.17%	-3.75%	-3.55%	-4.20%	+0.00%	5.88%	11.76%	65.74 亿	0.38%	25.00%	-1.51%	0	1	-3.35 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	趋势转弱	229/229	-4.60%	-5.75%	-3.12%	-4.63%	-5.67%	-3.54%	-0.03%	3.49%	16.59%	1,751.5 亿	10.20%	25.00%	-2.36%	0	11	-180.5 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	趋势转弱	80/80	-4.85%	-4.99%	-3.57%	-4.79%	-4.96%	-3.76%	+0.06%	1.25%	23.75%	338.4 亿	1.97%	50.00%	-2.61%	0	3	-18.05 亿	100.00%
先进封装	趋势转弱	204/204	-4.87%	-5.82%	-1.85%	-4.87%	-5.84%	-2.00%	+0.00%	3.92%	29.90%	2,165.6 亿	12.61%	50.00%	-2.63%	0	5	-139.7 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	趋势转弱	206/204	-5.01%	-6.19%	-2.34%	-5.01%	-6.15%	-2.26%	+0.01%	3.92%	27.45%	2,479.0 亿	14.44%	45.00%	-2.77%	0	4	-189.4 亿	100.00%
PCB	趋势转弱	236/234	-5.67%	-5.82%	+0.73%	-5.69%	-5.92%	+0.92%	-0.02%	3.85%	26.07%	2,070.4 亿	12.06%	15.00%	-3.43%	0	9	-192.4 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	趋势转弱	43/43	-5.88%	-7.27%	-4.39%	-5.88%	-7.30%	-4.69%	+0.00%	0.00%	25.58%	366.1 亿	2.13%	45.00%	-3.64%	0	2	-32.96 亿	100.00%
MLCC	趋势转弱	35/35	-6.03%	-6.35%	-2.14%	-6.44%	-7.35%	-5.08%	-0.41%	5.71%	20.00%	421.0 亿	2.45%	50.00%	-3.78%	0	2	-38.75 亿	100.00%
CPO	趋势转弱	212/212	-6.56%	-7.46%	-0.23%	-6.65%	-7.66%	-0.43%	-0.09%	0.94%	21.70%	3,346.1 亿	19.49%	35.00%	-4.32%	0	17	-343.2 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：会稽山（601579.SH）+9.99%、古越龙山（600059.SH）+6.64%、金枫酒业（600616.SH）+1.57%

领跌：古井贡酒（000596.SZ）-4.10%、华致酒行（300755.SZ）-2.37%、舍得酒业（600702.SH）-1.82%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：丽珠集团（000513.SZ）+10.01%、津药药业（600488.SH）+10.00%、ST万邦（002082.SZ）+10.00%

领跌：圣泉集团（605589.SH）-10.01%、哈药股份（600664.SH）-9.95%、华丽家族（600503.SH）-7.55%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：襄阳轴承（000678.SZ）+10.02%、双飞集团（300817.SZ）+6.72%、南方精工（002553.SZ）+6.58%

领跌：奥联电子（300585.SZ）-17.97%、博杰股份（002975.SZ）-9.83%、金帝股份（603270.SH）-8.04%

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：新华传媒（600825.SH）+10.04%、博纳影业（001330.SZ）+10.03%、中国科传（601858.SH）+3.59%

领跌：百纳千成（300291.SZ）-16.44%、内蒙新华（603230.SH）-10.02%、龙版传媒（605577.SH）-9.99%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：麒麟信安（688152.SH）+11.98%、大业股份（603278.SH）+10.00%、启明信息（002232.SZ）+10.00%

领跌：华光新材（688379.SH）-10.79%、凌云光（688400.SH）-10.29%、光启技术（002625.SZ）-10.01%

商业航天 · 趋势转弱

领涨：永信至诚（688244.SH）+20.00%、雷曼光电（300162.SZ）+12.89%、麒麟信安（688152.SH）+11.98%

领跌：蓝盾光电（300862.SZ）-15.56%、长盈通（688143.SH）-13.74%、万源通（920060.BJ）-13.04%

玻璃基板 · 趋势转弱

领涨：雷曼光电（300162.SZ）+12.89%、彩虹股份（600707.SH）+9.38%、三峡新材（600293.SH）+3.97%

领跌：凯格精机（301338.SZ）-10.71%、凌云光（688400.SH）-10.29%、天承科技（688603.SH）-10.13%

金属新材料 · 趋势转弱

领涨：深圳新星（603978.SH）+2.92%、合金投资（000633.SZ）+0.19%

领跌：江南新材（603124.SH）-10.00%、悦安新材（688786.SH）-6.58%、有研粉材（688456.SH）-6.56%

液冷服务器 · 趋势转弱

领涨：锐新科技（300828.SZ）+7.91%、江顺科技（001400.SZ）+3.30%、江苏神通（002438.SZ）+1.31%

领跌：科创新源（300731.SZ）-13.31%、澄天伟业（300689.SZ）-11.43%、华光新材（688379.SH）-10.79%

光刻胶 · 趋势转弱

领涨：百合花（603823.SH）+4.43%

领跌：莱伯泰科（688056.SH）-10.90%、世名科技（300522.SZ）-10.22%、圣泉集团（605589.SH）-10.01%

先进封装 · 趋势转弱

领涨：雷曼光电（300162.SZ）+12.89%、有研新材（600206.SH）+3.65%、沃格光电（603773.SH）+2.34%

领跌：联瑞新材（688300.SH）-13.18%、凯格精机（301338.SZ）-10.71%、天承科技（688603.SH）-10.13%

存储芯片 · 趋势转弱

领涨：有研新材（600206.SH）+3.65%、雅创电子（301099.SZ）+2.41%、沃格光电（603773.SH）+2.34%

领跌：联瑞新材（688300.SH）-13.18%、圣泉集团（605589.SH）-10.01%、华工科技（000988.SZ）-10.00%

PCB · 趋势转弱

领涨：光洋股份（002708.SZ）+3.40%、天海电子（001365.SZ）+1.55%、雪祺电气（001387.SZ）+1.48%

领跌：燕麦科技（688312.SH）-14.92%、迅捷兴（688655.SH）-14.53%、万源通（920060.BJ）-13.04%

电子化学品 · 趋势转弱

领涨：

领跌：天承科技（688603.SH）-10.13%、光华科技（002741.SZ）-10.00%、海星股份（603115.SH）-10.00%

MLCC · 趋势转弱

领涨：雅创电子（301099.SZ）+2.41%、赛伍技术（603212.SH）+0.69%

领跌：裕兴股份（300305.SZ）-10.47%、宏达电子（300726.SZ）-10.34%、风华高科（000636.SZ）-10.00%

CPO · 趋势转弱

领涨：均胜电子（600699.SH）+6.19%、沃格光电（603773.SH）+2.34%

领跌：燕麦科技（688312.SH）-14.92%、迅捷兴（688655.SH）-14.53%、长盈通（688143.SH）-13.74%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

医药健康	53	-0.23%	-0.31%	+1.01%	-2.03%	32.73 亿	100.00%	11/19	银华中证创新药产业ETF · +0.87%
红利防御	101	-0.42%	-0.39%	-0.93%	-1.94%	41.94 亿	100.00%	27/21	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · -0.17%
金融地产	51	-1.45%	-1.75%	-2.75%	-6.24%	65.21 亿	100.00%	19/15	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · +0.30%
大盘宽基	86	-1.93%	-1.92%	-3.24%	-5.58%	113.1 亿	100.00%	26/26	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · +1.14%
消费	48	-2.22%	-1.00%	-1.30%	-3.48%	14.57 亿	100.00%	3/16	华夏国证消费电子主题ETF · -0.17%
资源周期	65	-3.10%	-3.44%	-6.40%	-13.28%	48.36 亿	98.46%	25/23	永赢中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF · -1.82%
中小盘宽基	152	-4.36%	-3.60%	-5.00%	-5.86%	327.5 亿	99.34%	52/30	易方达创业板ETF · +1.60%
AI与半导体	142	-5.17%	-4.43%	-4.28%	-5.18%	361.5 亿	100.00%	82/25	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · +0.32%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

医药健康	医药生物、美容护理	539	-0.79%	+1.95%	-0.29%	34.14%	46.38%	6.32%	3	2
金融地产	银行、房地产、非银金融	214	-0.97%	-0.69%	-2.19%	21.96%	28.04%	4.33%	2	2
公用防御	公用事业、交通运输、环保	401	-1.05%	-1.83%	-2.36%	25.94%	20.70%	3.71%	2	1
大消费	食品饮料、农林牧渔、家用电器、商贸零售、社会服务	527	-1.11%	-0.74%	-1.84%	27.51%	23.15%	5.53%	5	5
基建链	建筑材料、建筑装饰	230	-2.23%	-2.13%	-2.08%	11.74%	22.17%	2.76%	1	2
高端制造	汽车、电力设备、机械设备、国防军工	1499	-2.52%	-2.33%	-2.65%	12.68%	25.68%	22.13%	10	9
资源周期	煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、基础化工、有色金属	721	-2.61%	-2.55%	-5.70%	9.85%	17.06%	11.19%	3	9
AI硬件与数字经济	计算机、电子、通信	1000	-3.76%	-3.76%	-1.40%	7.20%	26.80%	40.19%	6	23

近五个交易日

2026-09-21	75	86.2	81.69%	2.0481 万亿	106	5
2026-09-22	61.1	73.2	42.74%	2.1537 万亿	65	6
2026-09-23	33.2	47	34.04%	1.7831 万亿	51	4
2026-09-24	29.1	54	20.15%	1.6691 万亿	53	5
2026-09-28	26.1	39	16.16%	1.7167 万亿	35	5

边际变化

成交额：扩张 · +2.85%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -3.99%

涨停家数：压缩 · -18

最高连板：持平 · 0

五日成交中位：1.7831 万亿 · 温度区间：26.1–75 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：创新药 3次、酿酒 3次、MLCC 2次、减速器 2次、文化传媒 2次、先进封装 1次

行业：房地产 2次、银行 2次、传媒 1次、公用事业 1次、医药生物 1次、基础化工 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日+2.9%，上涨覆盖16.2%，五日成交中位17831.3亿元。

方向承接 · 酿酒当日收益+3.78%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 汽车涨停4家，最高3板。

负反馈 · 跌停60家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 17831.3亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 酿酒

确认：酿酒继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 13.2%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖16.2%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 60 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4
2026-08-19	27.1	35.8	8.10%	2.5300 万亿	38	3
2026-08-20	63.1	50.9	73.92%	2.0939 万亿	84	4
2026-08-21	53.7	45.7	45.19%	1.8923 万亿	58	3
2026-08-24	41.8	47.2	26.33%	2.0212 万亿	48	4
2026-08-25	62.5	63.9	76.34%	1.8443 万亿	70	5
2026-08-26	65.4	64.1	53.11%	1.8218 万亿	56	5
2026-08-27	77.3	82.6	61.19%	2.1410 万亿	78	6
2026-08-28	51.9	81.1	54.32%	2.1177 万亿	83	7
2026-08-31	68.9	67.3	57.37%	2.1454 万亿	89	6
2026-09-01	53.4	81.3	61.07%	2.0519 万亿	86	7
2026-09-02	34.1	48.5	27.78%	1.8203 万亿	55	5
2026-09-03	51.2	45.9	33.27%	1.7802 万亿	46	5
2026-09-04	52.8	46.3	44.05%	2.0510 万亿	42	5
2026-09-07	64.9	86.4	57.07%	1.9642 万亿	95	6
2026-09-08	63.9	75	61.58%	1.9782 万亿	75	4
2026-09-09	43.6	53.3	32.32%	1.8731 万亿	49	5
2026-09-10	25.9	41	17.21%	1.6623 万亿	40	4
2026-09-11	34.2	46.1	11.59%	1.9870 万亿	40	4
2026-09-14	41.7	61	56.32%	1.6430 万亿	57	4
2026-09-15	27.6	40.4	20.19%	1.6253 万亿	32	5
2026-09-16	76	85.4	75.14%	1.8525 万亿	91	6
2026-09-17	42.9	59.5	46.39%	1.8365 万亿	50	5
2026-09-18	79	82.2	76.25%	2.0929 万亿	80	4
2026-09-21	75	86.2	81.69%	2.0481 万亿	106	5
2026-09-22	61.1	73.2	42.74%	2.1537 万亿	65	6
2026-09-23	33.2	47	34.04%	1.7831 万亿	51	4
2026-09-24	29.1	54	20.15%	1.6691 万亿	53	5
2026-09-28	26.1	39	16.16%	1.7167 万亿	35	5

情绪九维 39

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数4.2
4.2
输入与公式
35 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率9.88
9.88
输入与公式
0.7 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率5.28
5.28
输入与公式
0.1320754716981132 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价0.14
0.14
输入与公式
-0.019418603773584907 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":60,"largeLoss":410} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度2.42
2.42
输入与公式
0.16159798452402374 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比1.97
1.97
输入与公式
{"limitUp":35,"limitDown":60} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能4.43
4.43
输入与公式
0.9215846643015487 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	117	2.11%	+6.93%	+6.12%
趋势延续	239	4.30%	+1.47%	+1.16%
低位修复	380	6.84%	+0.89%	+0.57%
中间状态	4821	86.76%	-2.89%	-2.27%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 53 家 · 今日晋级 7 家 · 晋级率 13.21%

晋级名单

新华传媒	600825.SH	传媒	5	+10.04%
金辰股份	603396.SH	电力设备	3	+9.99%
福建水泥	600802.SH	建筑材料	3	+9.97%
雪龙集团	603949.SH	汽车	3	+10.00%
吉鑫科技	601218.SH	电力设备	2	+10.00%
大业股份	603278.SH	机械设备	2	+10.00%
襄阳轴承	000678.SZ	汽车	2	+10.02%
江淮汽车	600418.SH	汽车	1	+9.99%
会稽山	601579.SH	食品饮料	1	+9.99%
巨力索具	002342.SZ	机械设备	1	+10.01%
众泰汽车	000980.SZ	汽车	1	+9.80%
跨境通	002640.SZ	商贸零售	1	+10.00%
宏柏新材	605366.SH	基础化工	1	+9.98%
丽珠集团	000513.SZ	医药生物	1	+10.01%
津药药业	600488.SH	医药生物	1	+10.00%
通达创智	001368.SZ	轻工制造	1	+10.00%
五方光电	002962.SZ	电子	1	+9.99%
浙江新能	600032.SH	公用事业	1	+10.07%
ST万邦	002082.SZ	医药生物	1	+10.00%
启明信息	002232.SZ	计算机	1	+10.00%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	30	7	14	9	23.33%	46.67%	30.00%
弱势方向修复	30	14	0	16	46.67%	0.00%	53.33%
方向剪刀差	19	14	1	4	73.68%	5.26%	21.05%
涨停生态	30	7	10	13	23.33%	33.33%	43.33%
市场持续性	30	2	13	15	6.67%	43.33%	50.00%

近20个交易日

强势方向延续	20	7	8	5	35.00%	40.00%	25.00%
弱势方向修复	20	10	0	10	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
方向剪刀差	13	8	1	4	61.54%	7.69%	30.77%
涨停生态	20	5	8	7	25.00%	40.00%	35.00%
市场持续性	20	2	9	9	10.00%	45.00%	45.00%

共 155 条假设