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2026-09-04

结论与证据

全A收盘为2444家上涨、2914家下跌，上涨占比44.05%；成交2.0510万亿元，环比+15.21%。涨跌覆盖处于分化区，50.1%样本位于MA20上方；42家封板、9家跌停，尚不能仅凭单日截面确认统一方向。

广度分化 · 量能扩张 · MA20上方50% · 42家封板 · 温度52.8

支持证据

16方向中酿酒当日+5.32%居前；92家触板、封板率45.7%，最高5板。

反证与边界

电子当日等权-2.47%，电子化学品方向-3.39%；成交额环比+15.21%，资金流分类代理-433.8亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.0510 万亿
成交环比: +15.21%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 2444 / 2914 / 190
上涨覆盖: 44.05%
中位涨幅: -0.17%
MA20上方: 50.13%
20日新高 / 新低: 462 / 744
涨停 / 跌停: 42 / 9
触板 / 未封: 92 / 50
封板率: 45.65%
最高连板: 5 板

收盘温度 52.8

广度15.42
15.42
输入与公式
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趋势10.03
10.03
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态12.35
12.35
输入与公式
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15
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 46.3

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数5.04
5.04
输入与公式
42.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率6.45
6.45
输入与公式
0.46 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.09
6.09
输入与公式
0.15 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价3.29
3.29
输入与公式
-0.01 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0.45
0.45
输入与公式
{"limitDown":9,"largeLoss":71} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度6.61
6.61
输入与公式
0.44 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比2.36
2.36
输入与公式
{"limitUp":42,"limitDown":9} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能5.26
5.26
输入与公式
0.96 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,930.12	-0.30%	9,382.6 亿
科创50	1,577.36	-2.10%	741.9 亿
深证成指	13,516.97	-0.79%	5,513.5 亿
创业板指	3,286.55	-0.78%	1,965.1 亿
中证1000	7,508.09	-1.21%	4,453.5 亿
国证2000	9,852.84	-1.14%	6,520.8 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	222	4.00%	+6.48%	+5.55%
趋势延续	513	9.25%	+1.67%	+1.44%
低位修复	791	14.26%	+1.19%	+0.75%
中间状态	4022	72.49%	-1.19%	-0.85%

三项风险

分化状态尚未形成一致方向

上涨占比44.05%，中位数涨幅-0.17%。

少数方向逆势承压

有色金属、电子分别为-1.79%、-2.47%。

放量后的次日承接仍需验证

成交额环比+15.21%，92家触板中50家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

市场广度能否脱离分化区

上涨占比与MA20上方比例同向改善或恶化，才能确认状态迁移。

酿酒强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

电子化学品弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日45.7%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,930.12 · MA5 3,955.96 · MA10 3,937.25 · MA20 3,937.52

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,937.52 · 近10日最低 3,850.86 · 近20日最低 3,850.86；压力：近10日最高 3,995.18 · 近20日最高 3,995.18

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%
2026-08-18	3,979.49	3,994.18	3,955.60	3,990.30	+0.19%
2026-08-19	3,952.12	3,961.14	3,879.58	3,894.42	-2.40%
2026-08-20	3,907.21	3,925.06	3,888.10	3,903.72	+0.24%
2026-08-21	3,891.18	3,912.13	3,883.79	3,905.20	+0.04%
2026-08-24	3,902.70	3,910.24	3,855.35	3,882.01	-0.59%
2026-08-25	3,863.37	3,896.21	3,850.86	3,889.44	+0.19%
2026-08-26	3,881.74	3,926.44	3,881.74	3,912.52	+0.59%
2026-08-27	3,911.89	3,958.03	3,909.31	3,956.57	+1.13%
2026-08-28	3,950.24	3,970.31	3,947.80	3,952.18	-0.11%
2026-08-31	3,926.53	3,986.30	3,926.50	3,986.30	+0.86%
2026-09-01	3,979.88	3,995.18	3,976.47	3,979.89	-0.16%
2026-09-02	3,963.07	3,965.81	3,932.25	3,941.39	-0.97%
2026-09-03	3,952.79	3,968.11	3,930.45	3,942.09	+0.02%
2026-09-04	3,955.55	3,980.20	3,915.22	3,930.12	-0.30%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

农林牧渔	修复延续	114	+3.61%	+2.54%	+14.38%	+2.71%	90.35%	82.46%	464.2 亿	2.26%	12	0	45.89	2.63
传媒	趋势扩散	131	+2.31%	+7.01%	+3.27%	+2.06%	91.60%	82.44%	865.0 亿	4.22%	3	1	41.28	3.06
食品饮料	修复延续	126	+2.21%	+1.06%	+4.29%	+2.02%	88.89%	61.11%	368.4 亿	1.80%	4	0	26.06	2.32
房地产	低位修复	95	+1.18%	-0.49%	+4.77%	+1.10%	80.00%	64.21%	217.9 亿	1.06%	1	0	34.07	1.18
商贸零售	修复延续	100	+1.03%	+2.49%	+6.36%	+1.00%	72.00%	83.00%	254.3 亿	1.24%	2	0	33.49	1.97
美容护理	修复延续	32	+0.75%	+2.45%	+0.31%	+1.25%	81.25%	56.25%	43.66 亿	0.21%	0	0	26.15	2.48
交通运输	修复延续	128	+0.70%	+0.89%	+4.43%	+0.48%	64.84%	73.44%	277.6 亿	1.35%	1	0	17.71	1.50
社会服务	修复延续	86	+0.69%	+1.79%	+5.38%	+0.67%	63.95%	68.60%	158.6 亿	0.77%	1	1	39.20	3.07
非银金融	修复延续	79	+0.69%	+1.06%	+3.57%	+0.55%	84.81%	89.87%	547.2 亿	2.67%	0	0	15.60	1.28
银行	趋势扩散	42	+0.65%	+3.67%	+6.10%	+0.68%	83.33%	95.24%	280.7 亿	1.37%	0	0	6.23	0.56
综合	低位修复	20	+0.64%	-1.98%	+5.90%	+0.54%	60.00%	55.00%	32.21 亿	0.16%	0	0	47.78	3.03
建筑装饰	修复延续	155	+0.61%	+0.89%	+4.39%	+0.44%	63.23%	63.23%	253.5 亿	1.24%	2	0	30.45	2.14
计算机	修复延续	357	+0.56%	+2.24%	-0.15%	+0.49%	64.99%	56.86%	1,409.5 亿	6.87%	1	2	77.25	3.66
轻工制造	方向待明	168	+0.36%	+1.37%	+5.70%	0.00%	45.83%	62.50%	210.7 亿	1.03%	3	0	34.41	2.36
石油石化	低位修复	48	+0.31%	-0.55%	+6.22%	0.00%	47.92%	70.83%	160.6 亿	0.78%	2	0	30.49	2.11
公用事业	方向待明	139	+0.19%	+0.24%	-0.58%	0.00%	45.32%	46.76%	343.4 亿	1.67%	1	0	27.76	1.65
国防军工	修复延续	140	+0.15%	+2.91%	+0.62%	+0.16%	52.14%	59.29%	654.8 亿	3.19%	0	0	89.01	3.86
纺织服饰	修复延续	107	+0.05%	+0.20%	+4.55%	+0.17%	56.07%	56.07%	128.8 亿	0.63%	0	1	31.30	1.95
钢铁	低位修复	44	+0.03%	-1.45%	+1.47%	+0.13%	52.27%	63.64%	70.64 亿	0.34%	0	0	24.81	1.21
建筑材料	方向待明	76	-0.13%	-0.51%	+1.64%	+0.08%	50.00%	59.21%	274.6 亿	1.34%	1	1	39.28	1.66
医药生物	方向待明	504	-0.32%	-2.02%	-1.37%	-0.16%	42.46%	24.01%	995.2 亿	4.85%	1	0	38.16	2.41
电力设备	方向待明	416	-0.39%	-1.37%	-2.55%	-0.56%	35.10%	31.49%	1,450.0 亿	7.07%	0	0	43.58	2.75
环保	方向待明	134	-0.41%	-0.34%	+3.13%	-0.12%	39.55%	52.99%	154.3 亿	0.75%	0	0	30.10	2.02
家用电器	方向待明	102	-0.56%	+0.85%	+3.22%	-0.31%	32.35%	51.96%	182.2 亿	0.89%	1	0	37.44	2.56
煤炭	退潮观察	33	-0.58%	-3.75%	+5.45%	-0.47%	36.36%	45.45%	119.5 亿	0.58%	0	1	26.78	1.30
基础化工	方向待明	448	-0.74%	-1.77%	+2.67%	-0.57%	35.04%	52.68%	1,115.9 亿	5.44%	1	1	35.71	2.25
汽车	方向待明	322	-0.76%	+0.83%	+1.66%	-0.59%	29.50%	50.93%	701.1 亿	3.42%	2	1	29.79	2.46
机械设备	方向待明	613	-1.13%	-0.00%	+1.97%	-0.94%	29.85%	48.45%	1,678.0 亿	8.18%	2	0	51.77	3.19
通信	方向待明	126	-1.25%	-1.04%	+1.75%	-0.93%	26.19%	41.27%	1,388.9 亿	6.77%	1	0	90.14	4.67
有色金属	退潮观察	146	-1.79%	-4.22%	-2.20%	-1.83%	9.59%	32.19%	1,066.4 亿	5.20%	0	0	31.92	3.39
电子	方向待明	517	-2.47%	-2.91%	-1.52%	-2.59%	10.83%	30.37%	4,642.6 亿	22.64%	0	0	70.23	4.81

涨停生态

首板 35 家 · 多板 7 家 · 昨日涨停 46 家 · 今日晋级 7 家 · 晋级率 15.22%

5 板 · 1 家 · 龙版传媒

2 板 · 6 家 · 海通发展、亚盛集团、百大集团、爱仕达、新炬网络、恒盛能源

1 板 · 35 家 · 平潭发展、我爱我家、欢瑞世纪、新希望、敦煌种业、楚天龙、天邦食品、古越龙山

行业聚类

农林牧渔 · 12 家 · 最高 2 板 · 亚盛集团、平潭发展、新希望、敦煌种业、天邦食品、罗牛山

食品饮料 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 古越龙山、安记食品、会稽山、海欣食品

传媒 · 3 家 · 最高 5 板 · 龙版传媒、欢瑞世纪、中国出版

轻工制造 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 实丰文化、源飞宠物、柏星龙

商贸零售 · 2 家 · 最高 2 板 · 百大集团、翠微股份

建筑装饰 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华阳国际、*ST美芝

机械设备 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 天沃科技、ST标准

汽车 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 湖南天雁、通达电气

石油石化 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 统一股份、润贝航科

交通运输 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 海通发展

公用事业 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 恒盛能源

医药生物 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 合富中国

基础化工 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 高争民爆

家用电器 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 爱仕达

建筑材料 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 福建水泥

房地产 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 我爱我家

社会服务 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华天酒店

计算机 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 新炬网络

通信 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 楚天龙

连续晋级与首板

龙版传媒	605577.SH	传媒	+9.97%	5	4.95 亿	主板	93109	93551	2	5/5	8,333.40 万
海通发展	603162.SH	交通运输	+9.99%	2	11.97 亿	主板	93840	104052	9	2/2	2,550.08 万
亚盛集团	600108.SH	农林牧渔	+10.10%	2	9.44 亿	主板	93623	93750	1	2/2	1.58 亿
百大集团	600865.SH	商贸零售	+9.98%	2	6.02 亿	主板	135254	140606	2	2/2	2,539.90 万
爱仕达	002403.SZ	家用电器	+10.05%	2	1.35 亿	主板	93133	93133	0	2/2	8,760.33 万
新炬网络	605398.SH	计算机	+9.98%	2	1.09 亿	主板	92501	92501	0	2/2	8,390.67 万
恒盛能源	605580.SH	公用事业	+9.99%	2	8,133.24 万	主板	92501	92501	0	2/2	1.03 亿
平潭发展	000592.SZ	农林牧渔	+9.99%	1	24.72 亿	主板	104303	132230	1	1/1	1.53 亿
我爱我家	000560.SZ	房地产	+10.14%	1	24.29 亿	主板	93321	—	25	3/6	—
欢瑞世纪	000892.SZ	传媒	+10.04%	1	16.60 亿	主板	95430	144109	20	4/5	1,002.90 万
新希望	000876.SZ	农林牧渔	+10.00%	1	13.60 亿	主板	130451	145618	11	1/1	460.70 万
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	+10.04%	1	12.40 亿	主板	95108	145105	19	3/6	999.90 万
楚天龙	003040.SZ	通信	+10.00%	1	10.40 亿	主板	93000	93000	0	7/11	5.43 亿
天邦食品	002124.SZ	农林牧渔	+10.00%	1	6.87 亿	主板	95448	110515	1	1/1	2,734.30 万
古越龙山	600059.SH	食品饮料	+10.06%	1	6.55 亿	主板	94710	144322	22	1/1	398.08 万
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	+9.99%	1	6.33 亿	主板	93039	94315	3	1/1	7,948.91 万
湖南天雁	600698.SH	汽车	+10.01%	1	6.09 亿	主板	95542	144545	4	1/1	1,157.79 万
统一股份	600506.SH	石油石化	+10.01%	1	6.07 亿	主板	101922	102849	2	1/1	7,814.41 万
安记食品	603696.SH	食品饮料	+10.04%	1	4.96 亿	主板	104504	144658	14	1/1	866.95 万
罗牛山	000735.SZ	农林牧渔	+10.05%	1	4.72 亿	主板	111036	111036	0	1/1	5,727.20 万

晋级未完成（最多16只）

国芳集团	601086.SH	商贸零售	+3.60%	15.50 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
集泰股份	002909.SZ	基础化工	-9.99%	11.35 亿	主板	—	145418	11	—	133.30 万
金帝股份	603270.SH	机械设备	-4.52%	12.13 亿	主板	93111	—	1	3/5	—
太阳电缆	002300.SZ	电力设备	-4.29%	11.46 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
博云新材	002297.SZ	国防军工	-3.09%	41.23 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
光洋股份	002708.SZ	汽车	-1.99%	15.50 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
云南旅游	002059.SZ	社会服务	-1.90%	12.25 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
信达地产	600657.SH	房地产	+4.17%	8.95 亿	主板	93354	—	4	2/3	—
明新旭腾	605068.SH	汽车	-10.00%	2.32 亿	主板	—	130636	53	—	737.92 万
中毅达	600610.SH	基础化工	-9.91%	8.45 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
凯迪股份	605288.SH	机械设备	-9.30%	2.37 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
大元泵业	603757.SH	机械设备	-8.85%	14.72 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
千金药业	600479.SH	医药生物	-7.78%	13.80 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
思泉新材	301489.SZ	电子	-6.70%	18.68 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
鸣志电器	603728.SH	电力设备	-6.04%	8.04 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
德展健康	000813.SZ	医药生物	-4.99%	4.90 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

浪潮信息	000977.SZ	计算机	-9.99%	137.1 亿	主板	—	140651	1	—	5,538.91 万
宏和科技	603256.SH	建筑材料	-10.00%	33.45 亿	主板	—	150000	10	—	1,938.09 万
集泰股份	002909.SZ	基础化工	-9.99%	11.35 亿	主板	—	145418	11	—	133.30 万
深中华A	000017.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.02%	10.17 亿	主板	—	132330	12	—	6,166.48 万
传智教育	003032.SZ	社会服务	-10.00%	9.52 亿	主板	—	145351	1	—	163.49 万
竞业达	003005.SZ	计算机	-9.99%	8.95 亿	主板	—	143036	4	—	2,038.88 万
大晟文化	600892.SH	传媒	-9.91%	8.31 亿	主板	—	141329	10	—	3,050.05 万
郑州煤电	600121.SH	煤炭	-10.02%	6.69 亿	主板	—	100145	8	—	1.52 亿
明新旭腾	605068.SH	汽车	-10.00%	2.32 亿	主板	—	130636	53	—	737.92 万

大跌样本

捷邦科技	301326.SZ	电子	-11.49%	3.76 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
强一股份	688809.SH	电子	-10.23%	11.42 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
同飞股份	300990.SZ	机械设备	-10.08%	15.34 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
深中华A	000017.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.02%	10.17 亿	主板	—	132330	12	—	6,166.48 万
郑州煤电	600121.SH	煤炭	-10.02%	6.69 亿	主板	—	100145	8	—	1.52 亿
传智教育	003032.SZ	社会服务	-10.00%	9.52 亿	主板	—	145351	1	—	163.49 万
宏和科技	603256.SH	建筑材料	-10.00%	33.45 亿	主板	—	150000	10	—	1,938.09 万
明新旭腾	605068.SH	汽车	-10.00%	2.32 亿	主板	—	130636	53	—	737.92 万
浪潮信息	000977.SZ	计算机	-9.99%	137.1 亿	主板	—	140651	1	—	5,538.91 万
集泰股份	002909.SZ	基础化工	-9.99%	11.35 亿	主板	—	145418	11	—	133.30 万
竞业达	003005.SZ	计算机	-9.99%	8.95 亿	主板	—	143036	4	—	2,038.88 万
国科微	300672.SZ	电子	-9.97%	28.33 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

华汇智能	920289.BJ	电力设备	+111.74%	0	5.21 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
柏星龙	920075.BJ	轻工制造	+30.00%	1	1.22 亿	北交所	95711	95711	0	1/1	3,164.83 万
大禹生物	920970.BJ	农林牧渔	+17.70%	0	1.53 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
德龙激光	688170.SH	机械设备	+17.50%	0	10.69 亿	科创板	130636	—	4	0/0	—
海峡创新	300300.SZ	计算机	+16.01%	0	13.67 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金钛股份	920071.BJ	有色金属	+15.72%	0	6.40 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
四方精创	300468.SZ	计算机	+14.58%	0	41.05 亿	创业板	93954	—	13	0/0	—
路桥信息	920748.BJ	计算机	+14.41%	0	2.31 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
南大环境	300864.SZ	环保	+12.95%	0	3.23 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
电气风电	688660.SH	电力设备	+12.57%	0	3.63 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
英方软件	688435.SH	计算机	+12.01%	0	2.58 亿	科创板	94110	—	1	0/0	—
易点天下	301171.SZ	传媒	+11.12%	0	63.14 亿	创业板	95357	—	3	0/0	—

跌幅居前

捷邦科技	301326.SZ	电子	-11.49%	3.76 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
强一股份	688809.SH	电子	-10.23%	11.42 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
同飞股份	300990.SZ	机械设备	-10.08%	15.34 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
深中华A	000017.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.02%	10.17 亿	主板	—	132330	12	—	6,166.48 万
郑州煤电	600121.SH	煤炭	-10.02%	6.69 亿	主板	—	100145	8	—	1.52 亿
传智教育	003032.SZ	社会服务	-10.00%	9.52 亿	主板	—	145351	1	—	163.49 万
宏和科技	603256.SH	建筑材料	-10.00%	33.45 亿	主板	—	150000	10	—	1,938.09 万
明新旭腾	605068.SH	汽车	-10.00%	2.32 亿	主板	—	130636	53	—	737.92 万
浪潮信息	000977.SZ	计算机	-9.99%	137.1 亿	主板	—	140651	1	—	5,538.91 万
集泰股份	002909.SZ	基础化工	-9.99%	11.35 亿	主板	—	145418	11	—	133.30 万
竞业达	003005.SZ	计算机	-9.99%	8.95 亿	主板	—	143036	4	—	2,038.88 万
国科微	300672.SZ	电子	-9.97%	28.33 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3190	-0.02%	48.53%	55.52%	+1.78%
创业板	1402	-0.60%	36.95%	43.08%	+2.87%
科创板	615	-1.34%	29.76%	26.67%	+1.88%
北交所	341	+0.63%	57.18%	70.97%	+2.98%

市值分层

小盘	2775	+0.09%	46.27%	34.19 亿
中盘	1664	-0.52%	42.19%	92.73 亿
大盘	832	-0.86%	40.02%	281.3 亿
超大盘	277	-0.76%	45.13%	1,304.0 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

酿酒	趋势扩散	31/30	+5.32%	+7.12%	+8.74%	+3.29%	+3.46%	+3.85%	-2.03%	100.00%	63.33%	181.9 亿	0.89%	90.00%	+5.60%	2	0	13.24 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/197	+1.70%	+4.85%	+3.94%	+1.70%	+4.88%	+3.63%	+0.00%	76.65%	74.62%	921.0 亿	4.49%	100.00%	+1.97%	5	1	56.40 亿	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	-0.48%	-2.54%	-2.31%	-0.47%	-2.66%	-2.84%	+0.01%	38.57%	17.86%	698.2 亿	3.40%	10.00%	-0.21%	0	0	-15.06 亿	100.00%
商业航天	方向待明	507/507	-0.75%	-0.30%	-1.27%	-0.75%	-0.36%	-1.27%	+0.00%	36.09%	41.03%	2,731.3 亿	13.32%	45.00%	-0.48%	1	0	-105.4 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	-1.30%	+1.41%	-0.33%	-1.30%	+1.37%	-0.60%	+0.00%	25.18%	41.01%	467.4 亿	2.28%	90.00%	-1.03%	1	0	-13.79 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/462	-1.59%	-0.37%	-1.45%	-1.61%	-0.41%	-1.69%	-0.02%	21.86%	35.93%	2,338.6 亿	11.40%	35.00%	-1.31%	1	2	-121.0 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	方向待明	34/34	-1.68%	-2.09%	-4.02%	-1.68%	-2.10%	-4.10%	+0.00%	14.71%	23.53%	76.03 亿	0.37%	55.00%	-1.40%	0	0	-1.23 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	趋势转弱	80/80	-2.46%	-5.48%	-5.68%	-2.46%	-5.47%	-6.06%	+0.01%	6.25%	11.25%	307.7 亿	1.50%	15.00%	-2.19%	0	0	-18.76 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	趋势转弱	57/57	-2.49%	-4.32%	-4.37%	-2.55%	-4.34%	-4.42%	-0.06%	8.77%	22.81%	643.3 亿	3.14%	40.00%	-2.21%	0	0	-56.41 亿	100.00%
PCB	趋势转弱	236/235	-2.55%	-3.36%	-2.44%	-2.54%	-3.37%	-2.54%	+0.02%	10.21%	27.23%	2,072.4 亿	10.10%	40.00%	-2.28%	0	1	-107.0 亿	100.00%
先进封装	趋势转弱	204/204	-2.56%	-4.89%	-4.46%	-2.56%	-4.83%	-4.56%	-0.01%	10.29%	17.65%	2,110.4 亿	10.29%	25.00%	-2.28%	0	0	-135.6 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	方向待明	229/229	-2.56%	+1.09%	+3.20%	-2.59%	+0.98%	+2.96%	-0.03%	17.47%	47.16%	2,508.1 亿	12.23%	60.00%	-2.28%	1	2	-140.1 亿	100.00%
CPO	趋势转弱	212/212	-2.73%	-3.45%	-0.05%	-2.73%	-3.42%	-0.15%	-0.00%	9.43%	30.19%	3,371.0 亿	16.44%	30.00%	-2.45%	0	0	-158.6 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	趋势转弱	206/204	-3.04%	-5.46%	-4.93%	-3.02%	-5.28%	-5.08%	+0.02%	6.86%	15.69%	2,545.3 亿	12.41%	20.00%	-2.77%	0	0	-211.5 亿	100.00%
MLCC	趋势转弱	35/35	-3.15%	-6.33%	-8.21%	-3.19%	-7.10%	-9.26%	-0.04%	8.57%	5.71%	333.0 亿	1.62%	20.00%	-2.87%	0	0	-26.65 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	趋势转弱	43/43	-3.39%	-6.92%	-7.78%	-3.39%	-6.91%	-7.47%	-0.00%	6.98%	9.30%	355.2 亿	1.73%	25.00%	-3.11%	0	1	-30.37 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

酿酒 · 趋势扩散

领涨：古越龙山（600059.SH）+10.06%、会稽山（601579.SH）+10.01%、金枫酒业（600616.SH）+5.72%

领跌：

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：柏星龙（920075.BJ）+30.00%、海峡创新（300300.SZ）+16.01%、易点天下（301171.SZ）+11.12%

领跌：大晟文化（600892.SH）-9.91%、星网锐捷（002396.SZ）-6.66%、开普云（688228.SH）-3.98%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：诺思格（301333.SZ）+6.38%、昂利康（002940.SZ）+6.12%、*ST香雪（300147.SZ）+4.29%

领跌：哈药股份（600664.SH）-9.01%、八亿时空（688181.SH）-8.33%、千金药业（600479.SH）-7.78%

商业航天 · 方向待明

领涨：德龙激光（688170.SH）+17.50%、润贝航科（001316.SZ）+9.99%、中国船舶（600150.SH）+9.18%

领跌：沃特股份（002886.SZ）-9.55%、大元泵业（603757.SH）-8.85%、江顺科技（001400.SZ）-7.39%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：爱仕达（002403.SZ）+10.05%、双环传动（002472.SZ）+7.43%、祥明智能（301226.SZ）+5.08%

领跌：斯菱智驱（301550.SZ）-8.88%、博杰股份（002975.SZ）-7.09%、精研科技（300709.SZ）-6.55%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：爱仕达（002403.SZ）+10.05%、*ST宝馨（002514.SZ）+9.05%、天娱数科（002354.SZ）+8.75%

领跌：传智教育（003032.SZ）-10.00%、明新旭腾（605068.SH）-10.00%、沃特股份（002886.SZ）-9.55%

金属新材料 · 方向待明

领涨：昆工科技（920152.BJ）+2.65%、天力复合（920576.BJ）+2.54%、惠同新材（920751.BJ）+0.38%

领跌：龙磁科技（300835.SZ）-5.98%、深圳新星（603978.SH）-4.99%、悦安新材（688786.SH）-4.09%

光刻胶 · 趋势转弱

领涨：天龙集团（300063.SZ）+4.86%、松井股份（688157.SH）+2.11%、新华医疗（600587.SH）+0.56%

领跌：八亿时空（688181.SH）-8.33%、龙鑫智能（920117.BJ）-5.43%、吉和昌（920193.BJ）-5.15%

玻璃基板 · 趋势转弱

领涨：德龙激光（688170.SH）+17.50%、锐科激光（300747.SZ）+2.79%、金瑞矿业（600714.SH）+2.43%

领跌：红星发展（600367.SH）-8.77%、汇成真空（301392.SZ）-8.39%、博杰股份（002975.SZ）-7.09%

PCB · 趋势转弱

领涨：德龙激光（688170.SH）+17.50%、景旺电子（603228.SH）+8.96%、万朗磁塑（603150.SH）+7.02%

领跌：宏和科技（603256.SH）-10.00%、沃特股份（002886.SZ）-9.55%、奕东电子（301123.SZ）-8.12%

先进封装 · 趋势转弱

领涨：德龙激光（688170.SH）+17.50%、灿瑞科技（688061.SH）+11.02%、领先股份（603991.SH）+8.32%

领跌：沃特股份（002886.SZ）-9.55%、八亿时空（688181.SH）-8.33%、旭光电子（600353.SH）-7.90%

液冷服务器 · 方向待明

领涨：统一股份（600506.SH）+10.01%、锐新科技（300828.SZ）+8.32%、皖仪科技（688600.SH）+6.26%

领跌：捷邦科技（301326.SZ）-11.49%、同飞股份（300990.SZ）-10.08%、浪潮信息（000977.SZ）-9.99%

CPO · 趋势转弱

领涨：德龙激光（688170.SH）+17.50%、景旺电子（603228.SH）+8.96%、德科立（688205.SH）+6.36%

领跌：奕东电子（301123.SZ）-8.12%、迅捷兴（688655.SH）-8.04%、强瑞技术（301128.SZ）-7.94%

存储芯片 · 趋势转弱

领涨：德龙激光（688170.SH）+17.50%、领先股份（603991.SH）+8.32%、炬光科技（688167.SH）+5.39%

领跌：强一股份（688809.SH）-10.23%、国科微（300672.SZ）-9.97%、和顺石油（603353.SH）-9.95%

MLCC · 趋势转弱

领涨：国风新材（000859.SZ）+0.45%、赛伍技术（603212.SH）+0.18%、裕兴股份（300305.SZ）+0.15%

领跌：博杰股份（002975.SZ）-7.09%、龙鑫智能（920117.BJ）-5.43%、宏达电子（300726.SZ）-5.41%

电子化学品 · 趋势转弱

领涨：方邦股份（688020.SH）+4.05%、硅烷科技（920402.BJ）+0.80%、康美特（920189.BJ）+0.14%

领跌：宏和科技（603256.SH）-10.00%、思泉新材（301489.SZ）-6.70%、同宇新材（301630.SZ）-5.78%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

消费	47	+1.68%	+1.07%	+0.68%	+0.55%	26.01 亿	100.00%	9/18	鹏华中证酒ETF · -0.47%
金融地产	51	+0.72%	+0.69%	+0.21%	+1.08%	84.47 亿	100.00%	6/33	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · -1.24%
红利防御	99	+0.29%	+0.21%	+0.17%	+0.61%	44.66 亿	100.00%	11/46	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · -0.81%
大盘宽基	83	+0.08%	+0.12%	-1.13%	-2.44%	103.6 亿	100.00%	25/10	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · +1.11%
医药健康	53	-0.55%	-0.24%	-1.54%	-4.12%	34.74 亿	100.00%	20/14	银华中证创新药产业ETF · +0.32%
资源周期	62	-0.93%	-1.12%	-4.07%	-2.82%	58.42 亿	100.00%	14/19	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · +2.25%
中小盘宽基	141	-1.03%	-0.95%	-2.90%	-3.92%	297.7 亿	99.29%	52/15	易方达创业板ETF · +1.79%
AI与半导体	131	-2.30%	-1.63%	-1.94%	-8.31%	338.4 亿	98.47%	80/22	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · +1.39%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

大消费	农林牧渔、食品饮料、商贸零售、社会服务、家用电器	528	+1.50%	+1.73%	+6.83%	71.02%	69.32%	6.96%	20	1
金融地产	房地产、非银金融、银行	216	+0.90%	+0.89%	+4.59%	82.41%	79.63%	5.10%	1	0
基建链	建筑装饰、建筑材料	231	+0.37%	+0.43%	+3.48%	58.87%	61.90%	2.58%	3	1
公用防御	交通运输、公用事业、环保	401	+0.16%	+0.25%	+2.26%	49.63%	57.36%	3.78%	2	0
医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	536	-0.25%	-1.75%	-1.27%	44.78%	25.93%	5.06%	1	0
高端制造	国防军工、电力设备、汽车、机械设备	1491	-0.72%	+0.07%	+0.52%	33.33%	45.27%	21.86%	4	1
资源周期	石油石化、钢铁、煤炭、基础化工、有色金属	719	-0.83%	-2.26%	+1.97%	31.85%	50.07%	12.35%	3	2
AI硬件与数字经济	计算机、通信、电子	1000	-1.24%	-0.84%	-0.62%	32.10%	41.20%	36.28%	2	2

近五个交易日

2026-08-31	68.9	67.3	57.37%	2.1454 万亿	89	6
2026-09-01	53.4	81.3	61.07%	2.0519 万亿	86	7
2026-09-02	34.1	48.5	27.78%	1.8203 万亿	55	5
2026-09-03	51.2	45.9	33.27%	1.7802 万亿	46	5
2026-09-04	52.8	46.3	44.05%	2.0510 万亿	42	5

边际变化

成交额：扩张 · +15.21%

上涨覆盖：扩大 · +10.78%

涨停家数：压缩 · -4

最高连板：持平 · 0

五日成交中位：2.0510 万亿 · 温度区间：34.1–68.9 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：文化传媒 3次、液冷服务器 3次、减速器 2次、创新药 2次、酿酒 2次、CPO 1次

行业：传媒 2次、农林牧渔 2次、交通运输 1次、商贸零售 1次、国防军工 1次、有色金属 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日+15.2%，上涨覆盖44.1%，五日成交中位20510.5亿元。

方向承接 · 酿酒当日收益+5.32%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 农林牧渔涨停12家，最高2板。

负反馈 · 跌停9家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 乐观条件已满足

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 20510.5亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 酿酒

确认：酿酒继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 15.2%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖44.1%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 48 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4
2026-08-19	27.1	35.8	8.10%	2.5300 万亿	38	3
2026-08-20	63.1	50.9	73.92%	2.0939 万亿	84	4
2026-08-21	53.7	45.7	45.19%	1.8923 万亿	58	3
2026-08-24	41.8	47.2	26.33%	2.0212 万亿	48	4
2026-08-25	62.5	63.9	76.34%	1.8443 万亿	70	5
2026-08-26	65.4	64.1	53.11%	1.8218 万亿	56	5
2026-08-27	77.3	82.6	61.19%	2.1410 万亿	78	6
2026-08-28	51.9	81.1	54.32%	2.1177 万亿	83	7
2026-08-31	68.9	67.3	57.37%	2.1454 万亿	89	6
2026-09-01	53.4	81.3	61.07%	2.0519 万亿	86	7
2026-09-02	34.1	48.5	27.78%	1.8203 万亿	55	5
2026-09-03	51.2	45.9	33.27%	1.7802 万亿	46	5
2026-09-04	52.8	46.3	44.05%	2.0510 万亿	42	5

情绪九维 46.3

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数5.04
5.04
输入与公式
42 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率6.45
6.45
输入与公式
0.45652173913043476 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.09
6.09
输入与公式
0.15217391304347827 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价3.29
3.29
输入与公式
-0.006273869565217389 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0.45
0.45
输入与公式
{"limitDown":9,"largeLoss":71} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度6.61
6.61
输入与公式
0.4405191059841384 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比2.36
2.36
输入与公式
{"limitUp":42,"limitDown":9} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能5.26
5.26
输入与公式
0.9632288043444034 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	222	4.00%	+6.48%	+5.55%
趋势延续	513	9.25%	+1.67%	+1.44%
低位修复	791	14.26%	+1.19%	+0.75%
中间状态	4022	72.49%	-1.19%	-0.85%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 46 家 · 今日晋级 7 家 · 晋级率 15.22%

晋级名单

龙版传媒	605577.SH	传媒	5	+9.97%
海通发展	603162.SH	交通运输	2	+9.99%
亚盛集团	600108.SH	农林牧渔	2	+10.10%
百大集团	600865.SH	商贸零售	2	+9.98%
爱仕达	002403.SZ	家用电器	2	+10.05%
新炬网络	605398.SH	计算机	2	+9.98%
恒盛能源	605580.SH	公用事业	2	+9.99%
平潭发展	000592.SZ	农林牧渔	1	+9.99%
我爱我家	000560.SZ	房地产	1	+10.14%
欢瑞世纪	000892.SZ	传媒	1	+10.04%
新希望	000876.SZ	农林牧渔	1	+10.00%
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	1	+10.04%
楚天龙	003040.SZ	通信	1	+10.00%
天邦食品	002124.SZ	农林牧渔	1	+10.00%
古越龙山	600059.SH	食品饮料	1	+10.06%
高争民爆	002827.SZ	基础化工	1	+9.99%
湖南天雁	600698.SH	汽车	1	+10.01%
统一股份	600506.SH	石油石化	1	+10.01%
安记食品	603696.SH	食品饮料	1	+10.04%
罗牛山	000735.SZ	农林牧渔	1	+10.05%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

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2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	15	3	8	4	20.00%	53.33%	26.67%
弱势方向修复	15	8	0	7	53.33%	0.00%	46.67%
方向剪刀差	8	8	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	15	3	4	8	20.00%	26.67%	53.33%
市场持续性	15	2	6	7	13.33%	40.00%	46.67%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	15	3	8	4	20.00%	53.33%	26.67%
弱势方向修复	15	8	0	7	53.33%	0.00%	46.67%
方向剪刀差	8	8	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	15	3	4	8	20.00%	26.67%	53.33%
市场持续性	15	2	6	7	13.33%	40.00%	46.67%

共 84 条假设