历史详情 · A 股观测台

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2026-09-02

结论与证据

全A收盘为1541家上涨、3901家下跌，上涨占比27.78%；成交1.8203万亿元，环比-11.29%。单日广度显著转弱，但57.3%样本仍站在MA20上方，同时有55家封板、9家跌停，更接近结构分歧，而不是所有趋势同步失效。

广度承压 · 量能收缩 · MA20上方57% · 55家封板 · 温度34.1

支持证据

16方向中液冷服务器当日+0.13%居前；76家触板、封板率72.4%，最高5板。

反证与边界

煤炭当日等权-3.54%，MLCC方向-1.62%；成交额环比-11.29%，资金流分类代理-553.5亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 1.8203 万亿
成交环比: -11.29%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 1541 / 3901 / 105
上涨覆盖: 27.78%
中位涨幅: -0.95%
MA20上方: 57.26%
20日新高 / 新低: 705 / 636
涨停 / 跌停: 55 / 9
触板 / 未封: 76 / 21
封板率: 72.37%
最高连板: 5 板

收盘温度 34.1

广度9.72
9.72
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势11.45
11.45
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态12.89
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 48.5

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数6.6
6.6
输入与公式
55.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.22
10.22
输入与公式
0.72 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.98
6.98
输入与公式
0.17 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价3.39
3.39
输入与公式
-0.01 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0.45
0.45
输入与公式
{"limitDown":9,"largeLoss":44} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度4.17
4.17
输入与公式
0.28 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比3.09
3.09
输入与公式
{"limitUp":55,"limitDown":9} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能2.93
2.93
输入与公式
0.85 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,941.39	-0.97%	8,353.7 亿
科创50	1,617.60	-1.82%	643.4 亿
深证成指	13,611.55	-1.88%	4,864.6 亿
创业板指	3,312.24	-2.39%	1,851.4 亿
中证1000	7,583.76	-1.40%	3,687.4 亿
国证2000	9,947.87	-1.04%	5,453.4 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	271	4.89%	+6.47%	+5.13%
趋势延续	652	11.75%	+1.45%	+1.27%
低位修复	298	5.37%	+1.62%	+0.81%
中间状态	4326	77.99%	-1.55%	-1.36%

三项风险

单日市场广度明显承压

下跌3901家，上涨占比仅27.78%；中位数涨幅-0.95%。

少数方向逆势承压

农林牧渔、煤炭分别为-2.41%、-3.54%。

缩量与炸板共同降温

成交额环比-11.29%，76家触板中21家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度与趋势存量是否继续背离

若上涨占比修复且MA20上方比例保持高位，分歧仍偏结构性；两者同步下滑则风险升级。

液冷服务器强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

MLCC弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日72.4%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,941.39 · MA5 3,963.26 · MA10 3,930.92 · MA20 3,935.92

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,935.92 · 近10日最低 3,850.86 · 近20日最低 3,850.86；压力：近10日最高 3,995.18 · 近20日最高 3,995.18

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%
2026-08-18	3,979.49	3,994.18	3,955.60	3,990.30	+0.19%
2026-08-19	3,952.12	3,961.14	3,879.58	3,894.42	-2.40%
2026-08-20	3,907.21	3,925.06	3,888.10	3,903.72	+0.24%
2026-08-21	3,891.18	3,912.13	3,883.79	3,905.20	+0.04%
2026-08-24	3,902.70	3,910.24	3,855.35	3,882.01	-0.59%
2026-08-25	3,863.37	3,896.21	3,850.86	3,889.44	+0.19%
2026-08-26	3,881.74	3,926.44	3,881.74	3,912.52	+0.59%
2026-08-27	3,911.89	3,958.03	3,909.31	3,956.57	+1.13%
2026-08-28	3,950.24	3,970.31	3,947.80	3,952.18	-0.11%
2026-08-31	3,926.53	3,986.30	3,926.50	3,986.30	+0.86%
2026-09-01	3,979.88	3,995.18	3,976.47	3,979.89	-0.16%
2026-09-02	3,963.07	3,965.81	3,932.25	3,941.39	-0.97%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

美容护理	修复延续	32	+1.47%	+2.38%	+0.66%	+0.16%	53.13%	62.50%	40.65 亿	0.22%	1	0	26.15	2.49
国防军工	趋势扩散	140	+1.33%	+5.52%	+2.66%	+0.60%	60.71%	65.71%	549.9 亿	3.02%	4	0	93.69	3.90
社会服务	方向待明	86	+0.30%	+3.90%	+5.57%	-0.14%	46.51%	76.74%	138.5 亿	0.76%	1	0	40.64	3.08
汽车	方向待明	322	+0.08%	+2.53%	+2.71%	-0.31%	42.86%	63.04%	555.4 亿	3.05%	5	0	30.12	2.49
建筑材料	方向待明	76	+0.04%	+1.58%	+4.20%	-0.48%	34.21%	65.79%	282.6 亿	1.55%	2	0	42.05	1.69
纺织服饰	高位分歧	107	-0.10%	+3.16%	+6.97%	-0.55%	27.10%	70.09%	134.0 亿	0.74%	3	0	32.78	2.01
家用电器	高位分歧	103	-0.14%	+2.67%	+4.77%	-0.55%	33.01%	64.08%	172.6 亿	0.95%	1	0	37.49	2.55
机械设备	高位分歧	612	-0.20%	+2.62%	+5.61%	-0.50%	35.62%	58.33%	1,448.8 亿	7.96%	4	0	52.31	3.24
银行	方向待明	42	-0.22%	+1.81%	+4.80%	-0.19%	33.33%	92.86%	297.0 亿	1.63%	0	0	6.20	0.56
轻工制造	高位分歧	168	-0.36%	+2.66%	+7.04%	-0.65%	33.93%	73.21%	194.0 亿	1.07%	1	0	34.74	2.34
通信	高位分歧	126	-0.47%	+2.67%	+7.01%	-0.74%	26.98%	63.49%	1,374.2 亿	7.55%	1	0	93.13	4.87
公用事业	方向待明	139	-0.48%	+0.39%	-1.07%	-0.75%	32.37%	51.08%	362.4 亿	1.99%	2	0	26.92	1.63
电力设备	方向待明	415	-0.51%	-0.48%	-1.59%	-0.96%	32.77%	38.31%	1,238.2 亿	6.80%	5	0	43.86	2.78
环保	方向待明	134	-0.54%	+1.18%	+4.37%	-0.71%	29.10%	64.93%	145.5 亿	0.80%	1	0	29.62	2.05
建筑装饰	方向待明	155	-0.56%	+1.38%	+4.57%	-0.88%	30.32%	63.87%	234.2 亿	1.29%	1	0	29.52	2.17
基础化工	高位分歧	449	-0.61%	+3.27%	+6.48%	-1.11%	29.18%	65.70%	1,181.0 亿	6.49%	6	3	36.48	2.29
商贸零售	高位分歧	100	-0.71%	+3.76%	+4.99%	-0.86%	18.00%	81.00%	202.3 亿	1.11%	2	0	33.49	1.96
房地产	方向待明	95	-0.77%	+0.77%	+3.98%	-0.89%	20.00%	65.26%	197.2 亿	1.08%	1	0	33.88	1.16
计算机	高位分歧	357	-0.78%	+4.34%	-0.39%	-1.16%	21.29%	57.98%	981.7 亿	5.39%	3	0	77.28	3.63
电子	方向待明	517	-0.83%	+2.46%	+6.21%	-1.35%	23.60%	44.10%	3,870.8 亿	21.26%	3	0	72.09	5.01
交通运输	方向待明	128	-1.07%	+0.64%	+2.19%	-0.89%	14.06%	69.53%	210.7 亿	1.16%	0	0	17.66	1.48
医药生物	方向待明	504	-1.07%	-1.33%	+3.67%	-1.29%	19.84%	30.75%	1,043.8 亿	5.73%	1	3	38.64	2.42
石油石化	高位分歧	48	-1.27%	+2.90%	+7.52%	-1.63%	16.67%	85.42%	232.2 亿	1.28%	0	0	30.80	2.16
综合	方向待明	20	-1.33%	+1.20%	+5.88%	-1.05%	15.00%	65.00%	27.53 亿	0.15%	0	0	48.18	3.09
有色金属	方向待明	145	-1.34%	-0.89%	+2.48%	-1.81%	17.24%	42.76%	1,142.0 亿	6.27%	1	0	31.95	3.32
食品饮料	方向待明	126	-1.47%	+1.07%	+2.45%	-1.43%	14.29%	53.17%	267.4 亿	1.47%	0	1	25.50	2.31
传媒	高位分歧	131	-1.70%	+5.74%	+0.03%	-2.06%	11.45%	65.65%	578.6 亿	3.18%	3	0	39.86	3.04
非银金融	方向待明	79	-1.86%	+1.41%	+0.92%	-1.96%	6.33%	70.89%	421.7 亿	2.32%	1	0	15.32	1.26
钢铁	方向待明	44	-1.86%	-0.28%	+0.66%	-1.43%	9.09%	68.18%	85.69 亿	0.47%	0	0	24.32	1.22
农林牧渔	高位分歧	114	-2.41%	+5.22%	+13.46%	-2.08%	17.54%	84.21%	394.4 亿	2.17%	2	2	46.21	2.64
煤炭	方向待明	33	-3.54%	+0.84%	+10.61%	-3.80%	0.00%	63.64%	197.9 亿	1.09%	0	0	26.72	1.30

涨停生态

首板 40 家 · 多板 15 家 · 昨日涨停 86 家 · 今日晋级 15 家 · 晋级率 17.44%

5 板 · 1 家 · 新赛股份

4 板 · 2 家 · 竞业达、国芳集团

3 板 · 4 家 · 龙版传媒、集泰股份、欢瑞世纪、大晟文化

2 板 · 8 家 · 恒宝股份、内蒙一机、九牧王、香溢融通、小方制药、茂业商业、*ST宝馨、英力特

1 板 · 40 家 · 杭电股份、远东股份、飞龙股份、长城军工、大位科技、博云新材、沃特股份、山东玻纤

行业聚类

基础化工 · 6 家 · 最高 3 板 · 集泰股份、英力特、沃特股份、华昌化工、天禾股份、道明光学

汽车 · 5 家 · 最高 1 板 · 飞龙股份、光洋股份、建设工业、德宏股份、一彬科技

电力设备 · 5 家 · 最高 1 板 · 杭电股份、远东股份、国晟科技、太阳电缆、神马电力

国防军工 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 内蒙一机、长城军工、博云新材、晟楠科技

机械设备 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · *ST宝馨、雪人集团、金帝股份、石化机械

传媒 · 3 家 · 最高 3 板 · 龙版传媒、欢瑞世纪、大晟文化

电子 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 盛景微、ST东尼、智新电子

纺织服饰 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 九牧王、哈森股份、康隆达

计算机 · 3 家 · 最高 4 板 · 竞业达、大位科技、力鼎光电

公用事业 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 贵州燃气、京能热力

农林牧渔 · 2 家 · 最高 5 板 · 新赛股份、播恩集团

商贸零售 · 2 家 · 最高 4 板 · 国芳集团、茂业商业

建筑材料 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 山东玻纤、九鼎新材

医药生物 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 小方制药

家用电器 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 联域股份

建筑装饰 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 高新发展

房地产 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 信达地产

有色金属 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 深圳新星

环保 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 顺控发展

社会服务 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 云南旅游

美容护理 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 维琪科技

轻工制造 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 梦天家居

通信 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 恒宝股份

非银金融 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 香溢融通

连续晋级与首板

新赛股份	600540.SH	农林牧渔	+9.97%	5	14.44 亿	主板	92501	—	6	4/5	—
竞业达	003005.SZ	计算机	+10.01%	4	8,784.26 万	主板	92500	92500	0	4/4	1.81 亿
国芳集团	601086.SH	商贸零售	+10.01%	4	6,440.22 万	主板	92500	92500	0	4/4	3.06 亿
龙版传媒	605577.SH	传媒	+10.02%	3	3.26 亿	主板	93805	93805	0	3/3	7,411.24 万
集泰股份	002909.SZ	基础化工	+9.97%	3	1.92 亿	主板	92500	92500	0	3/3	7,441.67 万
欢瑞世纪	000892.SZ	传媒	+9.94%	3	1.13 亿	主板	92500	92500	0	3/3	3.95 亿
大晟文化	600892.SH	传媒	+10.08%	3	6,000.45 万	主板	92503	92503	0	3/3	1.34 亿
恒宝股份	002104.SZ	通信	+10.02%	2	17.72 亿	主板	101942	105345	1	2/2	9,195.99 万
内蒙一机	600967.SH	国防军工	+10.01%	2	8.46 亿	主板	93445	93445	0	2/2	2.76 亿
九牧王	601566.SH	纺织服饰	+9.98%	2	4.92 亿	主板	93408	131217	2	2/2	4,631.95 万
香溢融通	600830.SH	非银金融	+9.97%	2	3.81 亿	主板	93133	93736	1	2/2	5,351.30 万
小方制药	603207.SH	医药生物	+10.00%	2	3.66 亿	主板	93044	95141	1	2/2	4,651.17 万
茂业商业	600828.SH	商贸零售	+10.07%	2	2.18 亿	主板	92501	94543	1	2/2	6,394.22 万
*ST宝馨	002514.SZ	机械设备	+10.19%	2	1.51 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
英力特	000635.SZ	基础化工	+9.97%	2	8,193.21 万	主板	92500	92500	0	2/2	9,329.50 万
杭电股份	603618.SH	电力设备	+9.99%	1	47.22 亿	主板	111945	111945	0	3/6	1.78 亿
远东股份	600869.SH	电力设备	+9.98%	1	34.32 亿	主板	93913	93943	1	1/1	4.30 亿
飞龙股份	002536.SZ	汽车	+10.00%	1	32.60 亿	主板	95624	102612	2	1/1	2.96 亿
长城军工	601606.SH	国防军工	+10.00%	1	21.40 亿	主板	93557	94636	1	1/1	2.40 亿
大位科技	600589.SH	计算机	+10.01%	1	13.65 亿	主板	135212	135212	0	1/1	1.50 亿

晋级未完成（最多16只）

海鸥住工	002084.SZ	轻工制造	+1.42%	15.40 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
万向德农	600371.SH	农林牧渔	+3.30%	14.53 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
捷荣技术	002855.SZ	电子	+7.34%	9.67 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
福建金森	002679.SZ	农林牧渔	-5.19%	5.79 亿	主板	92500	—	1	3/4	—
时代出版	600551.SH	传媒	-5.07%	8.99 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
我爱我家	000560.SZ	房地产	-0.31%	25.61 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
博纳影业	001330.SZ	传媒	-6.65%	12.69 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
掌阅科技	603533.SH	传媒	-2.82%	21.26 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
郑州煤电	600121.SH	煤炭	-1.85%	19.06 亿	主板	92500	—	2	2/3	—
芒果超媒	300413.SZ	传媒	+0.69%	53.02 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
中广天择	603721.SH	传媒	+2.28%	6.65 亿	主板	93330	—	2	2/3	—
神农种业	300189.SZ	农林牧渔	-11.39%	25.58 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	-10.01%	1.24 亿	主板	—	92503	0	—	3.83 亿
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	-10.01%	7.77 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	-9.98%	11.33 亿	主板	—	133209	7	—	2,749.45 万
国投丰乐	000713.SZ	农林牧渔	-9.94%	3.42 亿	主板	—	143118	23	—	601.53 万

跌停样本

神奇制药	600613.SH	医药生物	-10.04%	12.08 亿	主板	—	142918	0	—	1.01 亿
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	-9.98%	11.33 亿	主板	—	133209	7	—	2,749.45 万
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	-10.01%	7.77 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
红四方	603395.SH	基础化工	-10.00%	5.82 亿	主板	—	150000	6	—	515.49 万
冀衡医药	002742.SZ	医药生物	-10.02%	5.18 亿	主板	—	142527	1	—	5,438.64 万
金浦钛业	000545.SZ	基础化工	-10.13%	4.02 亿	主板	—	145315	2	—	163.29 万
国投丰乐	000713.SZ	农林牧渔	-9.94%	3.42 亿	主板	—	143118	23	—	601.53 万
新农股份	002942.SZ	基础化工	-10.00%	3.21 亿	主板	—	134345	9	—	1,323.31 万
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	-10.01%	1.24 亿	主板	—	92503	0	—	3.83 亿

大跌样本

马矿股份	601123.SH	钢铁	-23.00%	13.45 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
神农种业	300189.SZ	农林牧渔	-11.39%	25.58 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
华绿生物	300970.SZ	农林牧渔	-10.96%	6.20 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
贝特利	301697.SZ	电力设备	-10.64%	7.90 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金浦钛业	000545.SZ	基础化工	-10.13%	4.02 亿	主板	—	145315	2	—	163.29 万
神奇制药	600613.SH	医药生物	-10.04%	12.08 亿	主板	—	142918	0	—	1.01 亿
冀衡医药	002742.SZ	医药生物	-10.02%	5.18 亿	主板	—	142527	1	—	5,438.64 万
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	-10.01%	1.24 亿	主板	—	92503	0	—	3.83 亿
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	-10.01%	7.77 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
新农股份	002942.SZ	基础化工	-10.00%	3.21 亿	主板	—	134345	9	—	1,323.31 万
红四方	603395.SH	基础化工	-10.00%	5.82 亿	主板	—	150000	6	—	515.49 万
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	-9.98%	11.33 亿	主板	—	133209	7	—	2,749.45 万

涨幅居前

格林生物	301688.SZ	基础化工	+104.41%	0	12.05 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
维琪科技	920176.BJ	美容护理	+29.99%	1	2.24 亿	北交所	104118	104118	0	1/1	3,726.96 万
晟楠科技	920006.BJ	国防军工	+29.96%	1	2.59 亿	北交所	111309	111309	0	1/1	3,416.57 万
智新电子	920212.BJ	电子	+29.95%	1	1.33 亿	北交所	95851	95851	0	1/1	4,799.10 万
路桥信息	920748.BJ	计算机	+21.64%	0	2.20 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
益坤电气	920222.BJ	电力设备	+17.24%	0	1.68 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
科隆新材	920098.BJ	基础化工	+14.57%	0	1.39 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
北方长龙	301357.SZ	国防军工	+13.90%	0	11.10 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
路德科技	688156.SH	农林牧渔	+12.51%	0	2.37 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
长江能科	920158.BJ	机械设备	+12.12%	0	1.01 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
奥尼电子	301189.SZ	电子	+11.56%	0	6.63 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
同惠电子	920509.BJ	机械设备	+10.63%	0	2.04 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—

跌幅居前

马矿股份	601123.SH	钢铁	-23.00%	13.45 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
神农种业	300189.SZ	农林牧渔	-11.39%	25.58 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
华绿生物	300970.SZ	农林牧渔	-10.96%	6.20 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
贝特利	301697.SZ	电力设备	-10.64%	7.90 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金浦钛业	000545.SZ	基础化工	-10.13%	4.02 亿	主板	—	145315	2	—	163.29 万
神奇制药	600613.SH	医药生物	-10.04%	12.08 亿	主板	—	142918	0	—	1.01 亿
冀衡医药	002742.SZ	医药生物	-10.02%	5.18 亿	主板	—	142527	1	—	5,438.64 万
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	-10.01%	1.24 亿	主板	—	92503	0	—	3.83 亿
开开实业	600272.SH	医药生物	-10.01%	7.77 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
新农股份	002942.SZ	基础化工	-10.00%	3.21 亿	主板	—	134345	9	—	1,323.31 万
红四方	603395.SH	基础化工	-10.00%	5.82 亿	主板	—	150000	6	—	515.49 万
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	-9.98%	11.33 亿	主板	—	133209	7	—	2,749.45 万

上市板分层

主板	3192	-0.85%	23.53%	60.28%	+1.63%
创业板	1401	-0.72%	26.34%	54.68%	+2.56%
科创板	615	-1.10%	20.65%	32.68%	+1.75%
北交所	339	+2.58%	86.73%	84.07%	+5.39%

市值分层

小盘	2774	-0.16%	36.27%	34.34 亿
中盘	1664	-0.93%	21.27%	93.40 亿
大盘	832	-1.46%	14.78%	283.5 亿
超大盘	277	-1.23%	20.94%	1,341.2 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

液冷服务器	方向待明	229/229	+0.13%	+4.06%	+6.84%	+0.13%	+4.13%	+6.90%	-0.01%	40.17%	53.71%	2,021.4 亿	11.10%	15.00%	+0.77%	6	-23.20 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	+0.07%	+2.76%	+1.37%	+0.07%	+2.73%	+1.15%	+0.00%	38.85%	48.92%	336.5 亿	1.85%	15.00%	+0.70%	4	1.27 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	方向待明	34/34	-0.04%	+1.07%	+1.08%	-0.04%	+1.04%	+0.88%	-0.00%	32.35%	44.12%	65.88 亿	0.36%	15.00%	+0.60%	1	-4,481.75 万	100.00%
商业航天	方向待明	507/507	-0.22%	+2.89%	+2.12%	-0.21%	+2.78%	+2.15%	+0.00%	35.11%	48.52%	2,239.8 亿	12.30%	15.00%	+0.42%	7	-5.32 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/462	-0.56%	+2.08%	+1.32%	-0.57%	+2.02%	+1.22%	-0.01%	28.79%	42.42%	1,954.0 亿	10.73%	5.00%	+0.07%	7	-57.98 亿	100.00%
PCB	方向待明	236/236	-0.60%	+2.38%	+6.87%	-0.59%	+2.40%	+6.74%	+0.01%	25.42%	41.10%	1,822.8 亿	10.01%	5.00%	+0.03%	4	-34.81 亿	100.00%
CPO	方向待明	212/212	-1.00%	+1.80%	+8.44%	-1.01%	+1.74%	+8.42%	-0.01%	23.58%	43.40%	2,866.9 亿	15.75%	5.00%	-0.36%	0	-119.4 亿	100.00%
酿酒	方向待明	31/30	-1.01%	+0.09%	+1.18%	-0.99%	+0.58%	+0.71%	+0.01%	13.33%	46.67%	92.81 亿	0.51%	25.00%	-0.37%	0	-3.67 亿	100.00%
先进封装	方向待明	204/204	-1.10%	+0.66%	+4.40%	-1.07%	+0.84%	+4.56%	+0.03%	17.65%	30.39%	1,739.2 亿	9.55%	5.00%	-0.46%	1	-59.10 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	方向待明	57/57	-1.16%	+0.77%	+3.13%	-1.21%	+0.72%	+3.04%	-0.05%	14.04%	29.82%	486.5 亿	2.67%	5.00%	-0.52%	0	-17.84 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	方向待明	80/80	-1.20%	-0.14%	+2.61%	-1.21%	-0.19%	+2.15%	-0.01%	26.25%	27.50%	267.5 亿	1.47%	5.00%	-0.56%	0	-14.14 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	方向待明	206/205	-1.21%	+0.72%	+4.17%	-1.20%	+0.73%	+3.83%	+0.01%	19.51%	28.78%	2,089.9 亿	11.48%	5.00%	-0.57%	1	-83.18 亿	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	-1.21%	-1.94%	+3.01%	-1.24%	-2.03%	+2.51%	-0.03%	18.21%	22.14%	772.3 亿	4.24%	5.00%	-0.57%	1	1,229.52 万	100.00%
文化传媒	高位分歧	197/197	-1.37%	+4.83%	+2.36%	-1.37%	+4.84%	+2.12%	+0.00%	15.23%	70.56%	686.9 亿	3.77%	65.00%	-0.74%	3	-42.92 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	方向待明	43/43	-1.45%	-0.26%	+3.71%	-1.45%	-0.32%	+3.78%	-0.00%	13.95%	25.58%	276.0 亿	1.52%	5.00%	-0.81%	0	-12.86 亿	100.00%
MLCC	方向待明	35/35	-1.62%	-0.09%	-2.59%	-1.57%	-0.95%	-3.67%	+0.05%	20.00%	14.29%	306.0 亿	1.68%	10.00%	-0.98%	0	-27.21 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

液冷服务器 · 方向待明

领涨：科隆新材（920098.BJ）+14.57%、雪人集团（002639.SZ）+10.03%、道明光学（002632.SZ）+10.02%

领跌：中石科技（300684.SZ）-6.89%、利欧股份（002131.SZ）-6.08%、菲沃泰（688371.SH）-5.23%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：晟楠科技（920006.BJ）+29.96%、光洋股份（002708.SZ）+10.02%、内蒙一机（600967.SH）+10.01%

领跌：美利信（301307.SZ）-4.78%、迎丰股份（605055.SH）-4.58%、富临精工（300432.SZ）-4.37%

金属新材料 · 方向待明

领涨：深圳新星（603978.SH）+10.02%、族兴新材（920078.BJ）+8.36%、天力复合（920576.BJ）+6.17%

领跌：铂科新材（300811.SZ）-3.24%、博威合金（601137.SH）-2.65%、中科三环（000970.SZ）-2.49%

商业航天 · 方向待明

领涨：科隆新材（920098.BJ）+14.57%、雪人集团（002639.SZ）+10.03%、深圳新星（603978.SH）+10.02%

领跌：应流股份（603308.SH）-6.19%、麒麟信安（688152.SH）-5.60%、滨化股份（601678.SH）-5.54%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：同惠电子（920509.BJ）+10.63%、*ST宝馨（002514.SZ）+10.19%、云南旅游（002059.SZ）+10.06%

领跌：富春染织（605189.SH）-6.09%、江海股份（002484.SZ）-6.04%、麒麟信安（688152.SH）-5.60%

PCB · 方向待明

领涨：光洋股份（002708.SZ）+10.02%、山东玻纤（605006.SH）+9.99%、杭电股份（603618.SH）+9.99%

领跌：骏成科技（301106.SZ）-5.15%、福斯特（603806.SH）-4.73%、铜冠铜箔（301217.SZ）-4.67%

CPO · 方向待明

领涨：同惠电子（920509.BJ）+10.63%、金信诺（300252.SZ）+6.75%、华阳集团（002906.SZ）+5.13%

领跌：中石科技（300684.SZ）-6.89%、金字火腿（002515.SZ）-6.36%、青山纸业（600103.SH）-6.21%

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：天佑德酒（002646.SZ）+1.70%、会稽山（601579.SH）+0.97%、威龙股份（603779.SH）+0.96%

领跌：古井贡酒（000596.SZ）-3.12%、百润股份（002568.SZ）-2.94%、顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）-2.31%

先进封装 · 方向待明

领涨：沃特股份（002886.SZ）+9.99%、康美特（920189.BJ）+7.43%、华正新材（603186.SH）+5.99%

领跌：众合科技（000925.SZ）-4.59%、微导纳米（688147.SH）-4.42%、士兰微（600460.SH）-4.17%

玻璃基板 · 方向待明

领涨：莱宝高科（002106.SZ）+5.00%、金瑞矿业（600714.SH）+3.37%、天承科技（688603.SH）+2.78%

领跌：奥来德（688378.SH）-4.32%、博杰股份（002975.SZ）-4.10%、德邦科技（688035.SH）-3.16%

光刻胶 · 方向待明

领涨：锦华新材（920015.BJ）+2.91%、吉和昌（920193.BJ）+2.77%、佳先股份（920489.BJ）+2.66%

领跌：七彩化学（300758.SZ）-4.48%、奥来德（688378.SH）-4.32%、百合花（603823.SH）-4.29%

存储芯片 · 方向待明

领涨：盛景微（603375.SH）+10.00%、和顺石油（603353.SH）+5.58%、高凯技术（688835.SH）+5.15%

领跌：微导纳米（688147.SH）-4.42%、长川科技（300604.SZ）-4.11%、博杰股份（002975.SZ）-4.10%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：小方制药（603207.SH）+10.00%、百普赛斯（301080.SZ）+6.36%、昂利康（002940.SZ）+5.34%

领跌：汉森制药（002412.SZ）-8.06%、吉华集团（603980.SH）-7.70%、万邦医药（301520.SZ）-7.05%

文化传媒 · 高位分歧

领涨：大晟文化（600892.SH）+10.08%、龙版传媒（605577.SH）+10.02%、欢瑞世纪（000892.SZ）+9.94%

领跌：中文在线（300364.SZ）-7.17%、博纳影业（001330.SZ）-6.65%、利欧股份（002131.SZ）-6.08%

电子化学品 · 方向待明

领涨：康美特（920189.BJ）+7.43%、龙辰科技（920161.BJ）+3.03%、天承科技（688603.SH）+2.78%

领跌：中石科技（300684.SZ）-6.89%、菲沃泰（688371.SH）-5.23%、奥来德（688378.SH）-4.32%

MLCC · 方向待明

领涨：龙鑫智能（920117.BJ）+2.59%、洁美科技（002859.SZ）+1.22%、深圳华强（000062.SZ）+0.94%

领跌：博杰股份（002975.SZ）-4.10%、风华高科（000636.SZ）-4.03%、国风新材（000859.SZ）-4.01%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

医药健康	53	-0.67%	-0.88%	-2.46%	-0.70%	35.42 亿	100.00%	20/17	国泰上证科创板创新药ETF · +4.31%
红利防御	99	-0.98%	-0.89%	0.00%	-0.16%	51.66 亿	100.00%	13/50	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · -0.40%
大盘宽基	83	-1.25%	-1.32%	-0.82%	-1.91%	82.80 亿	100.00%	8/32	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · -0.19%
消费	47	-1.25%	-1.09%	-0.11%	-1.18%	15.44 亿	100.00%	14/9	华夏国证消费电子主题ETF · +1.20%
金融地产	50	-1.43%	-1.65%	-0.38%	-1.49%	67.45 亿	100.00%	11/25	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · +0.20%
中小盘宽基	140	-1.84%	-1.76%	-0.47%	-1.16%	264.0 亿	100.00%	32/38	易方达创业板ETF · +0.68%
AI与半导体	129	-1.87%	-1.87%	+1.63%	-5.63%	254.0 亿	100.00%	56/51	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · -1.33%
资源周期	62	-2.23%	-2.28%	-2.16%	-0.28%	71.43 亿	98.39%	15/31	国泰中证煤炭ETF · -7.14%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

高端制造	国防军工、汽车、机械设备、电力设备	1489	-0.08%	+2.01%	+2.70%	38.75%	54.47%	20.83%	18	0
基建链	建筑材料、建筑装饰	231	-0.36%	+1.45%	+4.45%	31.60%	64.50%	2.84%	3	0
公用防御	公用事业、环保、交通运输	401	-0.69%	+0.73%	+1.79%	25.44%	61.60%	3.95%	3	0
AI硬件与数字经济	通信、计算机、电子	1000	-0.76%	+3.15%	+3.95%	23.20%	51.50%	34.21%	7	0
医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	536	-0.92%	-1.11%	+3.49%	21.83%	32.65%	5.96%	2	3
大消费	社会服务、家用电器、商贸零售、食品饮料、农林牧渔	529	-0.98%	+3.24%	+6.26%	24.57%	71.08%	6.46%	6	3
资源周期	基础化工、石油石化、有色金属、钢铁、煤炭	719	-1.01%	+2.08%	+5.58%	23.37%	62.45%	15.60%	7	3
金融地产	银行、房地产、非银金融	216	-1.06%	+1.21%	+3.02%	17.59%	72.69%	5.03%	2	0

近五个交易日

2026-08-27	77.3	82.6	61.19%	2.1410 万亿	78	6
2026-08-28	51.9	81.1	54.32%	2.1177 万亿	83	7
2026-08-31	68.9	67.3	57.37%	2.1454 万亿	89	6
2026-09-01	53.4	81.3	61.07%	2.0519 万亿	86	7
2026-09-02	34.1	48.5	27.78%	1.8203 万亿	55	5

边际变化

成交额：收缩 · -11.29%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -33.29%

涨停家数：压缩 · -31

最高连板：压缩 · -2

五日成交中位：2.1177 万亿 · 温度区间：34.1–77.3 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：文化传媒 3次、液冷服务器 2次、酿酒 2次、CPO 1次、PCB 1次、减速器 1次

行业：农林牧渔 2次、煤炭 2次、电子 2次、传媒 1次、商贸零售 1次、国防军工 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日-11.3%，上涨覆盖27.8%，五日成交中位21177.3亿元。

方向承接 · 液冷服务器当日收益+0.13%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 基础化工涨停6家，最高3板。

负反馈 · 跌停9家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 21177.3亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 液冷服务器

确认：液冷服务器继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 17.4%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖27.8%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 46 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4
2026-08-19	27.1	35.8	8.10%	2.5300 万亿	38	3
2026-08-20	63.1	50.9	73.92%	2.0939 万亿	84	4
2026-08-21	53.7	45.7	45.19%	1.8923 万亿	58	3
2026-08-24	41.8	47.2	26.33%	2.0212 万亿	48	4
2026-08-25	62.5	63.9	76.34%	1.8443 万亿	70	5
2026-08-26	65.4	64.1	53.11%	1.8218 万亿	56	5
2026-08-27	77.3	82.6	61.19%	2.1410 万亿	78	6
2026-08-28	51.9	81.1	54.32%	2.1177 万亿	83	7
2026-08-31	68.9	67.3	57.37%	2.1454 万亿	89	6
2026-09-01	53.4	81.3	61.07%	2.0519 万亿	86	7
2026-09-02	34.1	48.5	27.78%	1.8203 万亿	55	5

情绪九维 48.5

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数6.6
6.6
输入与公式
55 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.22
10.22
输入与公式
0.7236842105263158 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.98
6.98
输入与公式
0.1744186046511628 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价3.39
3.39
输入与公式
-0.005875348837209298 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0.45
0.45
输入与公式
{"limitDown":9,"largeLoss":44} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度4.17
4.17
输入与公式
0.27780782404903553 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比3.09
3.09
输入与公式
{"limitUp":55,"limitDown":9} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能2.93
2.93
输入与公式
0.8462698466483073 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	271	4.89%	+6.47%	+5.13%
趋势延续	652	11.75%	+1.45%	+1.27%
低位修复	298	5.37%	+1.62%	+0.81%
中间状态	4326	77.99%	-1.55%	-1.36%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 86 家 · 今日晋级 15 家 · 晋级率 17.44%

晋级名单

新赛股份	600540.SH	农林牧渔	5	+9.97%
竞业达	003005.SZ	计算机	4	+10.01%
国芳集团	601086.SH	商贸零售	4	+10.01%
龙版传媒	605577.SH	传媒	3	+10.02%
集泰股份	002909.SZ	基础化工	3	+9.97%
欢瑞世纪	000892.SZ	传媒	3	+9.94%
大晟文化	600892.SH	传媒	3	+10.08%
恒宝股份	002104.SZ	通信	2	+10.02%
内蒙一机	600967.SH	国防军工	2	+10.01%
九牧王	601566.SH	纺织服饰	2	+9.98%
香溢融通	600830.SH	非银金融	2	+9.97%
小方制药	603207.SH	医药生物	2	+10.00%
茂业商业	600828.SH	商贸零售	2	+10.07%
*ST宝馨	002514.SZ	机械设备	2	+10.19%
英力特	000635.SZ	基础化工	2	+9.97%
杭电股份	603618.SH	电力设备	1	+9.99%
远东股份	600869.SH	电力设备	1	+9.98%
飞龙股份	002536.SZ	汽车	1	+10.00%
长城军工	601606.SH	国防军工	1	+10.00%
大位科技	600589.SH	计算机	1	+10.01%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	13	2	7	4	15.38%	53.85%	30.77%
弱势方向修复	13	6	0	7	46.15%	0.00%	53.85%
方向剪刀差	8	8	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	13	3	2	8	23.08%	15.38%	61.54%
市场持续性	13	2	5	6	15.38%	38.46%	46.15%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	13	2	7	4	15.38%	53.85%	30.77%
弱势方向修复	13	6	0	7	46.15%	0.00%	53.85%
方向剪刀差	8	8	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	13	3	2	8	23.08%	15.38%	61.54%
市场持续性	13	2	5	6	15.38%	38.46%	46.15%

共 75 条假设

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 待结算 · 今日生成

MLCC相对弱势能否收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: MLCC继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.62%、相对全A-0.98%、上涨覆盖20.0%。

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 待结算 · 今日生成

液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 液冷服务器继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 液冷服务器相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+0.13%、相对全A+0.77%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 待结算 · 今日生成

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖27.8%、MA20上方57.3%，高基数提高了延续难度。

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 待结算 · 今日生成

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于11家、跌停不超过11家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率72.4%、多板15家、跌停9家；强基数可能快速回落。

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.8%、上涨宽度 14.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.7%、成交占比 1.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.83%、相对全A-4.41%、上涨覆盖9.3%。

相对全 A -0.8%、上涨宽度 14.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.7%、成交占比 1.5%

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 未确认 · 今日结算

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.2%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于65.3%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.58%、相对全A+2.00%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.2%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 未确认 · 今日结算

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 27.8%、均线上方占比 57.3%、成交额 1.8203 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖61.1%、MA20上方63.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 27.8%、均线上方占比 57.3%、成交额 1.8203 万亿

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 72.4%、连板数量 15 家、跌停数量 9 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于78.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率86.0%、多板18家、跌停0家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 72.4%、连板数量 15 家、跌停数量 9 家

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 已确认 · 今日结算

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 0.4 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.4%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 14.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.4%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱电子化学品相对收益差为6.4%。

强弱差 0.4 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.4%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 14.0%

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 72.9%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.9%、成交占比 3.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.65%、相对全A-2.41%、上涨覆盖17.9%。

相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 72.9%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.9%、成交占比 3.8%

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +1.6%、上涨宽度 82.2%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.6%、成交占比 4.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于56.5%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 文化传媒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+3.27%、相对全A+2.51%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +1.6%、上涨宽度 82.2%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.6%、成交占比 4.4%

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：上涨宽度 61.1%、均线上方占比 63.9%、成交额 2.0519 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖57.4%、MA20上方61.5%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 61.1%、均线上方占比 63.9%、成交额 2.0519 万亿

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 86.0%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 0 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过15家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率71.2%、多板18家、跌停13家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 86.0%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 0 家

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 1.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.4%、弱势方向上涨宽度 72.9%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.9%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强文化传媒与最弱创新药相对收益差为4.9%。

强弱差 1.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.4%、弱势方向上涨宽度 72.9%

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 已确认

存储芯片相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +1.2%、上涨宽度 80.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.7%、成交占比 14.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 存储芯片相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 存储芯片继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.44%、相对全A-1.72%、上涨覆盖22.2%。

相对全 A +1.2%、上涨宽度 80.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.7%、成交占比 14.2%

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 已确认

文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +2.5%、上涨宽度 80.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.5%、成交占比 3.6%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 文化传媒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+0.66%、相对全A+0.39%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +2.5%、上涨宽度 80.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.5%、成交占比 3.6%

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 已确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为已确认；实际：上涨宽度 57.4%、均线上方占比 61.5%、成交额 2.1454 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖54.3%、MA20上方58.6%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 57.4%、均线上方占比 61.5%、成交额 2.1454 万亿

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 71.2%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 13 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过5家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率78.3%、多板18家、跌停3家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 71.2%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 13 家

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 证据不足

酿酒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.7%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.8%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 酿酒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.74%、相对全A-1.93%、上涨覆盖20.0%。

相对全 A -0.7%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.8%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 未确认

电子化学品居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 23.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.6%、成交占比 2.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 电子化学品相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+5.22%、相对全A+4.03%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 23.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.6%、成交占比 2.0%

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 54.3%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.1177 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖61.2%、MA20上方58.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 54.3%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.1177 万亿

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 已确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 78.3%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 3 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于11家、跌停不超过6家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率78.8%、多板16家、跌停4家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 78.3%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 3 家

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -1.0 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.7%、弱势方向上涨宽度 83.3%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.0%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强电子化学品与最弱酿酒相对收益差为6.0%。

强弱差 -1.0 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.7%、弱势方向上涨宽度 83.3%

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 已确认

MLCC相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +2.9%、上涨宽度 97.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +3.7%、成交占比 2.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: MLCC继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.77%、相对全A-1.04%、上涨覆盖28.6%。

相对全 A +2.9%、上涨宽度 97.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +3.7%、成交占比 2.2%

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 20.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.8%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+0.88%、相对全A+0.62%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 20.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.8%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 61.2%、均线上方占比 58.0%、成交额 2.1410 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖53.1%、MA20上方53.8%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 61.2%、均线上方占比 58.0%、成交额 2.1410 万亿

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 已确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 78.8%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 4 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过4家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率66.7%、多板13家、跌停2家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 78.8%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 4 家

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 37.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.3%、成交占比 1.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.45%、相对全A-1.98%、上涨覆盖37.2%。

相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 37.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.3%、成交占比 1.7%

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.1%、上涨宽度 55.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.2%、成交占比 5.6%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于57.5%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 创新药相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.36%、相对全A+0.82%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.1%、上涨宽度 55.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.2%、成交占比 5.6%

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 53.1%、均线上方占比 53.8%、成交额 1.8218 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖76.3%、MA20上方53.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 53.1%、均线上方占比 53.8%、成交额 1.8218 万亿

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 66.7%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 2 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过6家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率71.4%、多板8家、跌停4家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 66.7%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 已确认

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.8%、上涨宽度 82.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.1%、成交占比 5.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.06%、相对全A-1.90%、上涨覆盖11.1%。

相对全 A +0.8%、上涨宽度 82.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.1%、成交占比 5.7%

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 73.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.1%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.13%、相对全A+2.29%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 73.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.1%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 76.3%、均线上方占比 53.1%、成交额 1.8443 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖26.3%、MA20上方42.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 76.3%、均线上方占比 53.1%、成交额 1.8443 万亿

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 71.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 4 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于7家、跌停不超过16家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率69.6%、多板10家、跌停14家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 71.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 4 家

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -2.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 82.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.2%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱创新药相对收益差为4.2%。

强弱差 -2.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 82.1%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 证据不足

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 11.1%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.2%、成交占比 5.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.71%、相对全A-3.63%、上涨覆盖5.4%。

相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 11.1%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.2%、成交占比 5.8%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 未确认

MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 14.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.3%、成交占比 2.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于60.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: MLCC相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.81%、相对全A+1.88%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 14.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.3%、成交占比 2.1%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 26.3%、均线上方占比 42.1%、成交额 2.0212 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖45.2%、MA20上方53.5%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 26.3%、均线上方占比 42.1%、成交额 2.0212 万亿

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 69.6%、连板数量 10 家、跌停数量 14 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过17家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率74.4%、多板13家、跌停15家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 69.6%、连板数量 10 家、跌停数量 14 家

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 0.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.9%、弱势方向上涨宽度 11.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由5.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强MLCC与最弱创新药相对收益差为5.5%。

强弱差 0.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.9%、弱势方向上涨宽度 11.1%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 已确认

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 58.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.3%、成交占比 2.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.46%、相对全A-1.86%、上涨覆盖37.2%。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 58.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.3%、成交占比 2.2%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 未确认

创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -3.6%、上涨宽度 5.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -4.0%、成交占比 7.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于63.7%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 创新药相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+4.46%、相对全A+3.06%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -3.6%、上涨宽度 5.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -4.0%、成交占比 7.8%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 45.2%、均线上方占比 53.5%、成交额 1.8923 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.9%、MA20上方58.6%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 45.2%、均线上方占比 53.5%、成交额 1.8923 万亿

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.4%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 15 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于5家、跌停不超过15家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率60.9%、多板5家、跌停13家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.4%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 15 家

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -3.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -3.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 58.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.9%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强创新药与最弱电子化学品相对收益差为4.9%。

强弱差 -3.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -3.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 58.1%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

MLCC相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.5%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 2.3%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: MLCC继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-8.54%、相对全A-4.52%、上涨覆盖0.0%。

相对全 A -1.5%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 2.3%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.2%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.0%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益-2.47%、相对全A+1.55%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.2%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.0%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 73.9%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.0939 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖8.1%、MA20上方50.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 73.9%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.0939 万亿

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 60.9%、连板数量 5 家、跌停数量 13 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过132家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率70.4%、多板8家、跌停130家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 60.9%、连板数量 5 家、跌停数量 13 家

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 1.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.2%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 51.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.1%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱MLCC相对收益差为6.1%。

强弱差 1.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.2%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 51.4%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 证据不足

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.5%、上涨宽度 6.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.6%、成交占比 1.9%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.13%、相对全A-1.19%、上涨覆盖19.9%。

相对全 A +0.5%、上涨宽度 6.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.6%、成交占比 1.9%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -3.4%、上涨宽度 1.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -8.0%、成交占比 4.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 玻璃基板相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.14%、相对全A+1.09%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -3.4%、上涨宽度 1.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -8.0%、成交占比 4.2%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 8.1%、均线上方占比 50.0%、成交额 2.5300 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于71.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖38.3%、MA20上方81.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 8.1%、均线上方占比 50.0%、成交额 2.5300 万亿

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 70.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 130 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率73.0%、多板19家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 70.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 130 家

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 已确认

白酒逆势偏弱是否开始收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 白酒相对全A的落后幅度收窄，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势从前排扩散至方向中位数。
风险: 单日防御与进攻风格切换可能造成白酒相对收益波动，不能以一天判断中期方向。
反证: 8月17日白酒方向下跌1.25%，是16个重点方向中唯一明显走弱者。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足

高封板率与多板梯队能否保持稳定

涨停生态按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于80%、多板梯队不少于12家、跌停家数不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率跌破70%，或多板梯队少于8家且跌停家数同步增加。
风险: 涨跌幅制度因交易板与ST状态而异，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径，不能只看约10%涨跌幅。
反证: 8月17日封板率87.30%、多板15家、跌停1家处于较强状态，高位样本次日分化可能使指标快速回落。

封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足

电子化学品强势能否扩散而非单日脉冲

强势方向延续按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对收益，方向内上涨覆盖保持60%以上，且成交占比未明显收缩。
失效条件: 相对收益转负、上涨覆盖跌破45%，或前排上涨而方向中位数转负。
风险: 方向篮子是透明映射后的市场观察口径，不等同于官方指数，也不代表基本面兑现。
反证: 8月17日单日涨幅5.09%位居方向第一，短线拥挤与次日分化风险同时上升。

相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 未确认

广度与量能共振能否延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖保持50%以上、MA20上方比例保持80%以上，且成交额较8月17日收缩不超过10%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖跌破40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 8月17日属于单日强扩散，次日可能出现自然均值回归，不能把一天的普涨外推为趋势。
反证: 8月17日上涨覆盖78.26%、成交额环比增加11.40%，高基数本身提高了次日延续难度。

上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 未确认

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。

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确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。

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确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。

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确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

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确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

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确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

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确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

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确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

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确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

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确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

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确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

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确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

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确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

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确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:03:53.691916+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。