历史详情 · A 股观测台

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2026-08-18

结论与证据

全A收盘为2121家上涨、3292家下跌，上涨占比38.29%；成交2.4198万亿元，环比+0.72%。涨跌覆盖处于分化区，81.0%样本位于MA20上方；81家封板、6家跌停，尚不能仅凭单日截面确认统一方向。

广度分化 · 量能扩张 · MA20上方81% · 81家封板 · 温度56.6

支持证据

16方向中玻璃基板当日+1.18%居前；111家触板、封板率73.0%，最高4板。

反证与边界

非银金融当日等权-1.39%，文化传媒方向-1.13%；成交额环比+0.72%，资金流分类代理-669.3亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.4198 万亿
成交环比: +0.72%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 2121 / 3292 / 127
上涨覆盖: 38.29%
中位涨幅: -0.47%
MA20上方: 80.96%
20日新高 / 新低: 1129 / 182
涨停 / 跌停: 81 / 6
触板 / 未封: 111 / 30
封板率: 72.97%
最高连板: 4 板

收盘温度 56.6

广度13.4
13.4
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势16.19
16.19
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态13.97
13.97
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8.04
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
指数5
5
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 62.7

连板高度8.57
8.57
输入与公式
4.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数9.72
9.72
输入与公式
81.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.3
10.3
输入与公式
0.73 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.55
6.55
输入与公式
0.16 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价7.74
7.74
输入与公式
0.01 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应1.8
1.8
输入与公式
{"limitDown":6,"largeLoss":40} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度5.74
5.74
输入与公式
0.38 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比5.62
5.62
输入与公式
{"limitUp":81,"limitDown":6} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能6.62
6.62
输入与公式
1.03 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,990.30	+0.19%	1.1352 万亿
科创50	1,790.87	+0.11%	1,225.3 亿
深证成指	14,622.50	-0.56%	6,984.4 亿
创业板指	3,705.56	-0.92%	2,690.2 亿
中证1000	7,945.96	-0.28%	5,392.2 亿
国证2000	10,333.53	-0.33%	7,183.2 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	367	6.62%	+7.20%	+6.22%
趋势延续	612	11.05%	+1.75%	+1.53%
低位修复	211	3.81%	+3.36%	+0.68%
中间状态	4350	78.52%	-0.95%	-0.90%

三项风险

分化状态尚未形成一致方向

上涨占比38.29%，中位数涨幅-0.47%。

少数方向逆势承压

传媒、非银金融分别为-1.32%、-1.39%。

放量后的次日承接仍需验证

成交额环比+0.72%，111家触板中30家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

市场广度能否脱离分化区

上涨占比与MA20上方比例同向改善或恶化，才能确认状态迁移。

玻璃基板强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

文化传媒弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日73.0%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,990.30 · MA5 3,954.75 · MA10 3,939.33 · MA20 3,886.01

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,886.01 · 近10日最低 3,815.12 · 近20日最低 3,767.50；压力：近10日最高 3,994.18 · 近20日最高 3,994.18

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-02-25	4,123.78	4,167.84	4,122.70	4,147.23	+0.72%
2026-02-26	4,151.07	4,152.19	4,127.15	4,146.63	-0.01%
2026-02-27	4,128.90	4,166.23	4,128.36	4,162.88	+0.39%
2026-03-02	4,151.80	4,188.77	4,131.37	4,182.59	+0.47%
2026-03-03	4,189.41	4,197.23	4,116.01	4,122.68	-1.43%
2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%
2026-08-18	3,979.49	3,994.18	3,955.60	3,990.30	+0.19%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

农林牧渔	趋势扩散	114	+4.84%	+6.42%	+17.33%	+3.05%	90.35%	93.86%	370.4 亿	1.53%	22	0	37.32	2.53
机械设备	方向待明	608	+1.35%	+3.46%	+14.79%	-0.09%	47.37%	90.95%	2,001.7 亿	8.27%	7	0	51.26	3.21
石油石化	修复延续	48	+1.32%	+0.60%	+9.94%	+1.02%	79.17%	89.58%	170.2 亿	0.70%	0	0	41.81	2.09
食品饮料	修复延续	126	+1.00%	+2.40%	+13.08%	+0.41%	62.70%	69.05%	363.8 亿	1.50%	4	0	26.99	2.29
煤炭	低位修复	33	+0.48%	-0.96%	+7.88%	+0.84%	57.58%	81.82%	114.4 亿	0.47%	0	0	23.55	1.26
基础化工	方向待明	449	+0.42%	+2.55%	+13.54%	0.00%	49.89%	88.20%	1,286.9 亿	5.32%	10	1	38.37	2.25
商贸零售	方向待明	100	+0.33%	+0.13%	+9.74%	0.00%	48.00%	79.00%	155.1 亿	0.64%	4	0	31.30	1.93
社会服务	方向待明	86	+0.27%	+0.66%	+14.24%	-0.07%	46.51%	81.40%	110.3 亿	0.46%	1	0	37.31	2.99
电子	方向待明	517	+0.25%	+6.56%	+12.29%	-0.31%	44.29%	94.39%	7,531.2 亿	31.12%	7	0	92.52	5.41
汽车	方向待明	319	+0.25%	+1.48%	+11.46%	-0.21%	42.32%	84.01%	586.7 亿	2.42%	5	1	30.41	2.50
银行	低位修复	42	+0.24%	-0.01%	+0.83%	+0.16%	54.76%	30.95%	253.7 亿	1.05%	0	0	6.11	0.54
家用电器	方向待明	103	+0.15%	+1.72%	+11.11%	-0.20%	43.69%	78.64%	216.1 亿	0.89%	2	0	41.78	2.56
交通运输	方向待明	128	+0.12%	+0.33%	+5.27%	-0.08%	42.97%	56.25%	183.4 亿	0.76%	0	0	18.02	1.38
钢铁	方向待明	43	+0.04%	+0.44%	+5.34%	0.00%	39.53%	34.88%	70.32 亿	0.29%	0	0	19.68	1.18
纺织服饰	方向待明	108	-0.01%	+0.55%	+13.79%	-0.16%	41.67%	82.41%	105.2 亿	0.43%	1	0	30.78	1.99
建筑材料	方向待明	76	-0.06%	+0.86%	+11.25%	-0.25%	40.79%	85.53%	311.8 亿	1.29%	0	0	45.92	1.68
建筑装饰	方向待明	155	-0.22%	+1.36%	+12.04%	-0.48%	28.39%	71.61%	336.1 亿	1.39%	1	0	33.56	2.08
美容护理	方向待明	32	-0.24%	-2.87%	+5.83%	-0.37%	37.50%	56.25%	31.67 亿	0.13%	0	0	27.00	2.42
轻工制造	方向待明	166	-0.24%	+1.27%	+13.48%	-0.45%	37.95%	87.35%	155.2 亿	0.64%	2	0	32.98	2.26
公用事业	方向待明	139	-0.43%	-2.13%	+3.01%	-0.56%	37.41%	33.81%	417.9 亿	1.73%	1	0	26.26	1.59
房地产	方向待明	95	-0.45%	-0.05%	+11.84%	-0.55%	23.16%	78.95%	144.6 亿	0.60%	1	0	36.20	1.12
电力设备	高位分歧	415	-0.50%	+2.04%	+13.17%	-0.94%	30.36%	80.96%	1,718.4 亿	7.10%	1	1	46.30	2.85
有色金属	方向待明	145	-0.50%	+1.86%	+15.82%	-0.99%	26.90%	93.79%	1,280.4 亿	5.29%	1	0	35.50	3.49
环保	方向待明	134	-0.53%	+0.95%	+12.16%	-0.62%	30.60%	79.85%	167.9 亿	0.69%	0	0	31.06	2.02
综合	高位分歧	20	-0.66%	+2.63%	+14.18%	-0.49%	40.00%	95.00%	49.90 亿	0.21%	0	0	49.49	2.96
计算机	方向待明	357	-0.71%	+0.13%	+11.35%	-1.14%	22.13%	78.71%	1,418.9 亿	5.86%	4	1	83.39	3.59
国防军工	方向待明	141	-0.86%	+1.71%	+11.38%	-1.11%	25.53%	87.23%	485.7 亿	2.01%	1	0	81.86	3.85
医药生物	方向待明	504	-0.86%	+1.31%	+11.52%	-0.98%	25.40%	82.94%	1,489.3 亿	6.15%	5	2	40.16	2.55
通信	高位分歧	127	-1.13%	+5.65%	+14.00%	-1.59%	21.26%	91.34%	1,943.7 亿	8.03%	0	0	105.77	4.68
传媒	方向待明	131	-1.32%	-2.18%	+8.39%	-1.43%	16.79%	66.41%	394.6 亿	1.63%	1	0	40.24	3.04
非银金融	方向待明	79	-1.39%	-1.15%	-1.95%	-1.45%	3.80%	16.46%	332.2 亿	1.37%	0	0	17.51	1.23

涨停生态

首板 62 家 · 多板 19 家 · 昨日涨停 110 家 · 今日晋级 18 家 · 晋级率 16.36%

4 板 · 1 家 · 神奇制药

3 板 · 4 家 · 中石科技、旭光电子、正裕工业、桂发祥

2 板 · 14 家 · 博敏电子、一鸣食品、百合花、爱丽家居、罗牛山、农发种业、京粮控股、艾艾精工

1 板 · 62 家 · 埃斯顿、彩虹股份、神农种业、红星发展、航天电器、中国软件、中粮糖业、金牛化工

行业聚类

农林牧渔 · 22 家 · 最高 2 板 · 罗牛山、农发种业、京粮控股、金健米业、天山生物、神农种业

基础化工 · 10 家 · 最高 2 板 · 百合花、艾艾精工、红四方、宁科生物、红星发展、金牛化工

机械设备 · 7 家 · 最高 1 板 · 埃斯顿、华之杰、鼎阳科技、瑞纳智能、东方中科、石化机械

电子 · 7 家 · 最高 3 板 · 中石科技、旭光电子、博敏电子、彩虹股份、华亚智能、骏成科技

医药生物 · 5 家 · 最高 4 板 · 神奇制药、开开实业、东北制药、永安药业、丰原药业

汽车 · 5 家 · 最高 3 板 · 正裕工业、亚太股份、襄阳轴承、南方精工、沪光股份

商贸零售 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 浙江东日、三江购物、家家悦、全新好

计算机 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 魅视科技、中国软件、诚迈科技、麒麟信安

食品饮料 · 4 家 · 最高 3 板 · 桂发祥、一鸣食品、金字火腿、黑芝麻

家用电器 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华翔股份、勤上股份

轻工制造 · 2 家 · 最高 2 板 · 爱丽家居、王力安防

传媒 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 龙版传媒

公用事业 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 物产环能

国防军工 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 航天电器

建筑装饰 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · ST富煌

房地产 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 盈新发展

有色金属 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华峰铝业

电力设备 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 日丰股份

社会服务 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 学大教育

纺织服饰 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 哈森股份

连续晋级与首板

神奇制药	600613.SH	医药生物	+10.07%	4	5.61 亿	主板	92502	104923	1	4/4	9,281.74 万
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	+20.00%	3	48.48 亿	创业板	93312	142703	7	3/3	8,913.39 万
旭光电子	600353.SH	电子	+9.99%	3	24.27 亿	主板	93305	133020	10	3/3	1.30 亿
正裕工业	603089.SH	汽车	+9.97%	3	5,673.69 万	主板	92500	92500	0	3/3	5,449.58 万
桂发祥	002820.SZ	食品饮料	+10.04%	3	5,051.28 万	主板	92500	92500	0	3/3	1.51 亿
博敏电子	603936.SH	电子	+10.01%	2	18.72 亿	主板	93104	142840	16	2/2	3,835.87 万
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	+10.00%	2	15.45 亿	主板	145659	150000	1	11/16	147.11 万
百合花	603823.SH	基础化工	+10.00%	2	11.21 亿	主板	93552	103152	17	6/12	7,516.08 万
爱丽家居	603221.SH	轻工制造	+10.01%	2	9.40 亿	主板	94449	142040	7	13/24	2,582.69 万
罗牛山	000735.SZ	农林牧渔	+9.96%	2	7.07 亿	主板	94521	94521	0	2/2	1.06 亿
农发种业	600313.SH	农林牧渔	+10.06%	2	6.28 亿	主板	93808	93905	1	2/2	1.00 亿
京粮控股	000505.SZ	农林牧渔	+10.05%	2	5.08 亿	主板	101933	105236	1	2/2	3,031.87 万
艾艾精工	603580.SH	基础化工	+10.00%	2	4.76 亿	主板	93535	94605	3	2/2	2,281.67 万
金健米业	600127.SH	农林牧渔	+10.06%	2	3.83 亿	主板	93057	93057	0	2/2	2.25 亿
魅视科技	001229.SZ	计算机	+9.99%	2	2.66 亿	主板	93109	111000	6	2/2	3,053.96 万
天山生物	300313.SZ	农林牧渔	+20.04%	2	1.88 亿	创业板	93130	93130	0	2/2	9,810.17 万
红四方	603395.SH	基础化工	+10.02%	2	1.28 亿	主板	93011	93011	0	2/2	1.06 亿
哈森股份	603958.SH	纺织服饰	+10.01%	2	2,030.05 万	主板	92501	92501	0	2/2	6,644.68 万
宁科生物	600165.SH	基础化工	+10.11%	2	388.02 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
埃斯顿	002747.SZ	机械设备	+10.00%	1	45.28 亿	主板	145654	—	1	0/0	—

晋级未完成（最多16只）

澳洋健康	002172.SZ	医药生物	-10.02%	8.58 亿	主板	—	103054	0	—	1,536.52 万
天洋新材	603330.SH	基础化工	-4.77%	18.94 亿	主板	92500	—	1	4/5	—
金螳螂	002081.SZ	建筑装饰	+7.73%	45.70 亿	主板	94330	—	5	4/5	—
共进股份	603118.SH	通信	-1.60%	43.93 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华森制药	002907.SZ	医药生物	-5.78%	9.08 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
越剑智能	603095.SH	机械设备	-5.54%	3.47 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
利君股份	002651.SZ	国防军工	-4.55%	5.71 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
圣达生物	603079.SH	基础化工	-0.14%	5.76 亿	主板	93004	—	3	2/3	—
华正新材	603186.SH	电子	-0.06%	58.59 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
中瓷电子	003031.SZ	通信	+0.36%	27.12 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
创元科技	000551.SZ	环保	-9.74%	8.70 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
鸿博股份	002229.SZ	计算机	-8.97%	17.93 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
TCL智家	002668.SZ	家用电器	-8.96%	8.65 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
冀衡医药	002742.SZ	医药生物	-8.30%	2.24 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
中广天择	603721.SH	传媒	-7.80%	1.76 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
卓郎智能	600545.SH	机械设备	-6.79%	8.51 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

贝达药业	300558.SZ	医药生物	-20.00%	17.81 亿	创业板	—	102218	10	—	2.21 亿
城地香江	603887.SH	计算机	-10.02%	9.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
澳洋健康	002172.SZ	医药生物	-10.02%	8.58 亿	主板	—	103054	0	—	1,536.52 万
金时科技	002951.SZ	电力设备	-10.02%	3.23 亿	主板	—	104536	0	—	1,625.89 万
江瀚新材	603281.SH	基础化工	-10.00%	2.70 亿	主板	—	150000	15	—	41.07 万
坤泰股份	001260.SZ	汽车	-10.00%	1.88 亿	主板	—	142812	0	—	949.54 万

大跌样本

贝达药业	300558.SZ	医药生物	-20.00%	17.81 亿	创业板	—	102218	10	—	2.21 亿
恒兴股份	920107.BJ	基础化工	-19.90%	2.92 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
万邦医药	301520.SZ	医药生物	-13.17%	10.59 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
义翘神州	301047.SZ	医药生物	-13.03%	19.04 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
近岸蛋白	688137.SH	医药生物	-12.33%	4.70 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
丰茂股份	301459.SZ	基础化工	-12.05%	1.81 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金时科技	002951.SZ	电力设备	-10.02%	3.23 亿	主板	—	104536	0	—	1,625.89 万
澳洋健康	002172.SZ	医药生物	-10.02%	8.58 亿	主板	—	103054	0	—	1,536.52 万
城地香江	603887.SH	计算机	-10.02%	9.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
坤泰股份	001260.SZ	汽车	-10.00%	1.88 亿	主板	—	142812	0	—	949.54 万
江瀚新材	603281.SH	基础化工	-10.00%	2.70 亿	主板	—	150000	15	—	41.07 万
海洋王	002724.SZ	家用电器	-9.89%	4.81 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

频准激光	688826.SH	机械设备	+516.44%	0	72.72 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
秋乐种业	920087.BJ	农林牧渔	+29.98%	1	4.69 亿	北交所	101947	135917	3	1/1	1,790.17 万
康农种业	920403.BJ	农林牧渔	+24.47%	0	2.81 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
神农种业	300189.SZ	农林牧渔	+20.04%	1	22.91 亿	创业板	102103	130503	1	1/1	1.00 亿
天山生物	300313.SZ	农林牧渔	+20.04%	2	1.88 亿	创业板	93130	93130	0	2/2	9,810.17 万
诚迈科技	300598.SZ	计算机	+20.01%	1	7.69 亿	创业板	135248	140503	2	1/1	6,341.14 万
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	+20.00%	3	48.48 亿	创业板	93312	142703	7	3/3	8,913.39 万
鼎阳科技	688112.SH	机械设备	+20.00%	1	3.32 亿	科创板	94214	94214	0	1/1	5,273.11 万
瑞纳智能	301129.SZ	机械设备	+20.00%	1	2.79 亿	创业板	94412	95257	1	1/1	1,199.06 万
华绿生物	300970.SZ	农林牧渔	+20.00%	1	2.31 亿	创业板	94842	95618	1	1/1	2,693.44 万
麒麟信安	688152.SH	计算机	+20.00%	1	2.26 亿	科创板	142650	142650	0	1/1	5,514.71 万
骏成科技	301106.SZ	电子	+20.00%	1	1.16 亿	创业板	93330	93330	0	1/1	9,433.24 万

跌幅居前

贝达药业	300558.SZ	医药生物	-20.00%	17.81 亿	创业板	—	102218	10	—	2.21 亿
恒兴股份	920107.BJ	基础化工	-19.90%	2.92 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
万邦医药	301520.SZ	医药生物	-13.17%	10.59 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
义翘神州	301047.SZ	医药生物	-13.03%	19.04 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
近岸蛋白	688137.SH	医药生物	-12.33%	4.70 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
丰茂股份	301459.SZ	基础化工	-12.05%	1.81 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金时科技	002951.SZ	电力设备	-10.02%	3.23 亿	主板	—	104536	0	—	1,625.89 万
澳洋健康	002172.SZ	医药生物	-10.02%	8.58 亿	主板	—	103054	0	—	1,536.52 万
城地香江	603887.SH	计算机	-10.02%	9.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
坤泰股份	001260.SZ	汽车	-10.00%	1.88 亿	主板	—	142812	0	—	949.54 万
江瀚新材	603281.SH	基础化工	-10.00%	2.70 亿	主板	—	150000	15	—	41.07 万
海洋王	002724.SZ	家用电器	-9.89%	4.81 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3190	-0.11%	37.81%	74.14%	+1.62%
创业板	1400	-0.43%	29.50%	89.50%	+2.88%
科创板	614	+0.76%	36.16%	92.02%	+2.26%
北交所	336	+2.27%	83.33%	89.88%	+2.57%

市值分层

小盘	2771	+0.08%	39.84%	33.76 亿
中盘	1662	-0.28%	33.63%	95.05 亿
大盘	831	+0.65%	39.83%	294.0 亿
超大盘	276	-0.08%	46.01%	1,418.4 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

玻璃基板	趋势扩散	57/57	+1.18%	+7.88%	+10.76%	+1.14%	+7.86%	+10.16%	-0.04%	56.14%	98.25%	1,160.5 亿	4.80%	95.00%	+1.13%	2	0	-3.75 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	+0.74%	+2.40%	+14.30%	+0.74%	+2.35%	+13.94%	+0.00%	52.52%	94.96%	579.8 亿	2.40%	100.00%	+0.68%	2	0	7.16 亿	100.00%
酿酒	方向待明	31/30	+0.51%	+2.17%	+10.19%	+0.31%	-0.16%	+6.04%	-0.19%	53.33%	50.00%	125.5 亿	0.52%	20.00%	+0.46%	0	0	-3.33 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/461	+0.49%	+3.57%	+12.90%	+0.49%	+3.58%	+12.64%	-0.00%	48.59%	88.29%	3,300.0 亿	13.64%	80.00%	+0.44%	4	0	-61.49 亿	100.00%
先进封装	方向待明	204/204	+0.46%	+7.74%	+11.87%	+0.46%	+7.77%	+11.41%	+0.00%	46.57%	96.57%	3,658.3 亿	15.12%	90.00%	+0.41%	2	0	-59.65 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	方向待明	43/43	+0.45%	+9.74%	+14.53%	+0.45%	+10.07%	+14.52%	-0.00%	44.19%	100.00%	681.9 亿	2.82%	90.00%	+0.40%	1	0	-11.32 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	方向待明	34/34	+0.26%	+3.73%	+13.73%	+0.26%	+3.77%	+13.45%	-0.00%	38.24%	94.12%	94.31 亿	0.39%	65.00%	+0.21%	0	0	-6,780.17 万	100.00%
存储芯片	方向待明	206/205	+0.22%	+7.69%	+10.51%	+2.70%	+7.58%	+10.01%	+2.47%	41.46%	95.12%	4,523.0 亿	18.69%	70.00%	+0.17%	3	0	-147.5 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	方向待明	80/80	+0.15%	+5.85%	+14.75%	+0.13%	+5.89%	+13.57%	-0.02%	42.50%	96.25%	576.8 亿	2.38%	80.00%	+0.10%	1	0	2.61 亿	100.00%
CPO	高位分歧	212/211	-0.08%	+9.34%	+15.61%	-0.05%	+9.59%	+15.32%	+0.03%	39.34%	97.16%	5,004.9 亿	20.68%	60.00%	-0.13%	4	0	-229.3 亿	100.00%
PCB	高位分歧	236/236	-0.23%	+6.17%	+14.99%	-0.23%	+6.24%	+14.45%	-0.00%	33.47%	96.61%	2,802.1 亿	11.58%	65.00%	-0.28%	2	0	-134.7 亿	100.00%
商业航天	高位分歧	507/507	-0.27%	+3.44%	+12.27%	-0.28%	+3.54%	+11.94%	-0.00%	32.74%	86.59%	3,436.5 亿	14.20%	80.00%	-0.32%	6	0	-98.26 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	高位分歧	229/229	-0.57%	+4.96%	+12.11%	-0.59%	+4.98%	+11.56%	-0.02%	34.06%	89.08%	2,849.9 亿	11.78%	65.00%	-0.62%	3	1	-158.0 亿	100.00%
MLCC	方向待明	35/35	-0.57%	+1.77%	—	-0.57%	+1.75%	+16.40%	+0.00%	31.43%	100.00%	658.9 亿	2.72%	55.00%	-0.62%	0	0	-25.80 亿	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	-1.07%	+1.19%	+9.27%	-1.07%	+1.16%	+9.18%	+0.00%	21.07%	80.36%	1,114.4 亿	4.61%	60.00%	-1.12%	1	1	-37.72 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/196	-1.13%	-1.28%	+9.73%	-1.13%	-1.33%	+9.26%	+0.00%	19.90%	71.43%	513.0 亿	2.12%	35.00%	-1.19%	1	0	-32.57 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

玻璃基板 · 趋势扩散

领涨：红星发展（600367.SH）+10.01%、彩虹股份（600707.SH）+9.98%、捷佳伟创（300724.SZ）+8.56%

领跌：德邦科技（688035.SH）-4.66%、三孚新科（688359.SH）-3.80%、大族激光（002008.SZ）-2.75%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：襄阳轴承（000678.SZ）+10.05%、南方精工（002553.SZ）+9.99%、丰光精密（920510.BJ）+9.88%

领跌：创元科技（000551.SZ）-9.74%、*ST春兴（002547.SZ）-6.62%、奥联电子（300585.SZ）-4.40%

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：ST椰岛（600238.SH）+3.52%、顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）+2.57%、威龙股份（603779.SH）+1.89%

领跌：酒鬼酒（000799.SZ）-1.42%、*ST莫高（600543.SH）-1.22%、ST通葡（600365.SH）-1.08%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：麒麟信安（688152.SH）+20.00%、大地熊（688077.SH）+15.83%、万达轴承（920002.BJ）+10.61%

领跌：丰茂股份（301459.SZ）-12.05%、秦安股份（603758.SH）-9.70%、*ST宝馨（002514.SZ）-6.45%

先进封装 · 方向待明

领涨：迈为股份（300751.SZ）+13.60%、博敏电子（603936.SH）+10.01%、旭光电子（600353.SH）+9.99%

领跌：芯原股份（688521.SH）-5.74%、展芯股份（301707.SZ）-5.45%、天准科技（688003.SH）-4.85%

电子化学品 · 方向待明

领涨：中石科技（300684.SZ）+20.00%、天通股份（600330.SH）+6.95%、光华科技（002741.SZ）+6.88%

领跌：中船特气（688146.SH）-6.39%、德邦科技（688035.SH）-4.66%、三孚新科（688359.SH）-3.80%

金属新材料 · 方向待明

领涨：大地熊（688077.SH）+15.83%、天力复合（920576.BJ）+6.20%、昆工科技（920152.BJ）+5.99%

领跌：博威合金（601137.SH）-2.97%、中科三环（000970.SZ）-2.77%、中洲特材（300963.SZ）-2.40%

存储芯片 · 方向待明

领涨：频准激光（688826.SH）+516.44%、迈为股份（300751.SZ）+13.60%、有研硅（688432.SH）+13.43%

领跌：阿莱德（301419.SZ）-5.68%、天华新能（300390.SZ）-5.59%、国科微（300672.SZ）-5.48%

光刻胶 · 方向待明

领涨：百合花（603823.SH）+10.00%、钢研纳克（300797.SZ）+9.26%、聚和材料（688503.SH）+6.73%

领跌：龙鑫智能（920117.BJ）-5.58%、理奇智能（301599.SZ）-4.91%、国风新材（000859.SZ）-3.91%

CPO · 高位分歧

领涨：中石科技（300684.SZ）+20.00%、优迅股份（688807.SH）+11.07%、金禄电子（301282.SZ）+11.06%

领跌：锐捷网络（301165.SZ）-7.44%、金戈新材（920083.BJ）-6.97%、鼎通科技（688668.SH）-6.45%

PCB · 高位分歧

领涨：骏成科技（301106.SZ）+20.00%、瑞丰高材（300243.SZ）+15.36%、金禄电子（301282.SZ）+11.06%

领跌：宝鼎科技（002552.SZ）-7.10%、立方控股（920130.BJ）-6.87%、铜冠铜箔（301217.SZ）-6.06%

商业航天 · 高位分歧

领涨：麒麟信安（688152.SH）+20.00%、金禄电子（301282.SZ）+11.06%、腾景科技（688195.SH）+10.66%

领跌：创元科技（000551.SZ）-9.74%、鼎通科技（688668.SH）-6.45%、长盈通（688143.SH）-5.32%

液冷服务器 · 高位分歧

领涨：中石科技（300684.SZ）+20.00%、博敏电子（603936.SH）+10.01%、航天电器（002025.SZ）+10.01%

领跌：城地香江（603887.SH）-10.02%、圣阳股份（002580.SZ）-8.78%、锐捷网络（301165.SZ）-7.44%

MLCC · 方向待明

领涨：昊志机电（300503.SZ）+6.80%、斯迪克（300806.SZ）+4.79%、利和兴（301013.SZ）+3.77%

领跌：龙鑫智能（920117.BJ）-5.58%、双星新材（002585.SZ）-5.37%、三环集团（300408.SZ）-4.73%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：粤万年青（301111.SZ）+16.11%、东北制药（000597.SZ）+9.98%、恩华药业（002262.SZ）+6.60%

领跌：贝达药业（300558.SZ）-20.00%、万邦医药（301520.SZ）-13.17%、亚泰集团（600881.SH）-8.14%

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：龙版传媒（605577.SH）+10.02%、中信出版（300788.SZ）+6.04%、ST路通（300555.SZ）+4.68%

领跌：北京文化（000802.SZ）-9.19%、中广天择（603721.SH）-7.80%、利欧股份（002131.SZ）-4.89%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

AI与半导体	129	+0.74%	-0.70%	+3.98%	-1.27%	480.7 亿	100.00%	49/61	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · +1.32%
红利防御	98	+0.35%	+0.10%	-0.70%	+1.28%	47.27 亿	100.00%	17/43	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · -0.45%
资源周期	59	-0.02%	-0.16%	+0.67%	+12.14%	50.37 亿	100.00%	3/48	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · -1.06%
消费	46	-0.03%	+0.49%	-0.07%	+0.91%	19.55 亿	100.00%	3/24	华夏国证消费电子主题ETF · -1.52%
大盘宽基	83	-0.34%	-0.17%	+0.86%	+0.22%	103.3 亿	100.00%	5/51	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · -1.52%
医药健康	52	-0.56%	-0.30%	0.00%	+4.55%	52.35 亿	100.00%	8/31	国泰上证科创板创新药ETF · -1.15%
中小盘宽基	140	-0.60%	-0.37%	+3.38%	+5.28%	258.3 亿	100.00%	17/63	易方达创业板ETF · -1.98%
金融地产	50	-0.88%	-1.14%	-0.93%	-2.62%	79.95 亿	100.00%	11/28	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · +0.31%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

大消费	农林牧渔、食品饮料、商贸零售、社会服务、家用电器	529	+1.41%	+2.42%	+13.17%	59.55%	80.15%	5.02%	33	0
高端制造	机械设备、汽车、电力设备、国防军工	1483	+0.39%	+2.47%	+13.30%	39.45%	86.31%	19.81%	14	2
资源周期	石油石化、煤炭、基础化工、钢铁、有色金属	718	+0.27%	+1.99%	+13.01%	46.94%	85.93%	12.08%	11	1
基建链	建筑材料、建筑装饰	231	-0.17%	+1.19%	+11.78%	32.47%	76.19%	2.68%	1	0
AI硬件与数字经济	电子、计算机、通信	1001	-0.27%	+4.15%	+12.17%	33.47%	88.41%	45.02%	11	1
公用防御	交通运输、公用事业、环保	401	-0.29%	-0.32%	+6.79%	36.91%	56.36%	3.18%	1	0
金融地产	银行、房地产、非银金融	216	-0.66%	-0.45%	+4.66%	22.22%	46.76%	3.02%	1	0
医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	536	-0.82%	+1.06%	+11.18%	26.12%	81.34%	6.29%	5	2

近五个交易日

2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4

边际变化

成交额：扩张 · +0.72%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -39.98%

涨停家数：压缩 · -29

最高连板：持平 · 0

五日成交中位：2.4025 万亿 · 温度区间：53.4–89 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：存储芯片 3次、CPO 2次、玻璃基板 2次、电子化学品 2次、酿酒 2次、先进封装 1次

行业：电子 3次、有色金属 2次、通信 2次、农林牧渔 1次、医药生物 1次、基础化工 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日+0.7%，上涨覆盖38.3%，五日成交中位24025.1亿元。

方向承接 · 玻璃基板当日收益+1.18%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 农林牧渔涨停22家，最高2板。

负反馈 · 跌停6家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 乐观条件已满足

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 24025.1亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 玻璃基板

确认：玻璃基板继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 16.4%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖38.3%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 35 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4

情绪九维 62.7

连板高度8.57
8.57
输入与公式
4 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数9.72
9.72
输入与公式
81 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.3
10.3
输入与公式
0.7297297297297297 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.55
6.55
输入与公式
0.16363636363636364 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价7.74
7.74
输入与公式
0.012259090909090907 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应1.8
1.8
输入与公式
{"limitDown":6,"largeLoss":40} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度5.74
5.74
输入与公式
0.3828519855595668 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比5.62
5.62
输入与公式
{"limitUp":81,"limitDown":6} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能6.62
6.62
输入与公式
1.0310058720269082 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	367	6.62%	+7.20%	+6.22%
趋势延续	612	11.05%	+1.75%	+1.53%
低位修复	211	3.81%	+3.36%	+0.68%
中间状态	4350	78.52%	-0.95%	-0.90%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 110 家 · 今日晋级 18 家 · 晋级率 16.36%

晋级名单

神奇制药	600613.SH	医药生物	4	+10.07%
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	3	+20.00%
旭光电子	600353.SH	电子	3	+9.99%
正裕工业	603089.SH	汽车	3	+9.97%
桂发祥	002820.SZ	食品饮料	3	+10.04%
博敏电子	603936.SH	电子	2	+10.01%
一鸣食品	605179.SH	食品饮料	2	+10.00%
百合花	603823.SH	基础化工	2	+10.00%
爱丽家居	603221.SH	轻工制造	2	+10.01%
罗牛山	000735.SZ	农林牧渔	2	+9.96%
农发种业	600313.SH	农林牧渔	2	+10.06%
京粮控股	000505.SZ	农林牧渔	2	+10.05%
艾艾精工	603580.SH	基础化工	2	+10.00%
金健米业	600127.SH	农林牧渔	2	+10.06%
魅视科技	001229.SZ	计算机	2	+9.99%
天山生物	300313.SZ	农林牧渔	2	+20.04%
红四方	603395.SH	基础化工	2	+10.02%
哈森股份	603958.SH	纺织服饰	2	+10.01%
宁科生物	600165.SH	基础化工	2	+10.11%
埃斯顿	002747.SZ	机械设备	1	+10.00%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	2	0	1	1	0.00%	50.00%	50.00%
弱势方向修复	2	1	0	1	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	2	0	0	2	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	2	0	2	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	2	0	1	1	0.00%	50.00%	50.00%
弱势方向修复	2	1	0	1	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	2	0	0	2	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	2	0	2	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

共 24 条假设

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 待结算

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.13%、相对全A-1.19%、上涨覆盖19.9%。

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 待结算

玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 玻璃基板相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.14%、相对全A+1.09%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 待结算

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于71.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖38.3%、MA20上方81.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 待结算

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率73.0%、多板19家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 已确认 · 今日结算

白酒逆势偏弱是否开始收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 白酒相对全A的落后幅度收窄，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势从前排扩散至方向中位数。
风险: 单日防御与进攻风格切换可能造成白酒相对收益波动，不能以一天判断中期方向。
反证: 8月17日白酒方向下跌1.25%，是16个重点方向中唯一明显走弱者。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

高封板率与多板梯队能否保持稳定

涨停生态按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于80%、多板梯队不少于12家、跌停家数不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率跌破70%，或多板梯队少于8家且跌停家数同步增加。
风险: 涨跌幅制度因交易板与ST状态而异，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径，不能只看约10%涨跌幅。
反证: 8月17日封板率87.30%、多板15家、跌停1家处于较强状态，高位样本次日分化可能使指标快速回落。

封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

电子化学品强势能否扩散而非单日脉冲

强势方向延续按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对收益，方向内上涨覆盖保持60%以上，且成交占比未明显收缩。
失效条件: 相对收益转负、上涨覆盖跌破45%，或前排上涨而方向中位数转负。
风险: 方向篮子是透明映射后的市场观察口径，不等同于官方指数，也不代表基本面兑现。
反证: 8月17日单日涨幅5.09%位居方向第一，短线拥挤与次日分化风险同时上升。

相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 未确认 · 今日结算

广度与量能共振能否延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖保持50%以上、MA20上方比例保持80%以上，且成交额较8月17日收缩不超过10%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖跌破40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 8月17日属于单日强扩散，次日可能出现自然均值回归，不能把一天的普涨外推为趋势。
反证: 8月17日上涨覆盖78.26%、成交额环比增加11.40%，高基数本身提高了次日延续难度。

上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 未确认

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:03:01.757725+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。