历史详情 · A 股观测台

2026-08-17

结论与证据

全A收盘为4335家上涨、1064家下跌，上涨占比78.26%；成交2.4025万亿元，环比+11.40%。单日广度明显扩张，84.0%样本位于MA20上方；110家封板、1家跌停，广度与涨停生态相互印证。这确认了当日扩张，但持续性仍需下一交易日验证。

广度扩张 · 量能扩张 · MA20上方84% · 110家封板 · 温度89.0

支持证据

16方向中电子化学品当日+5.09%居前；126家触板、封板率87.3%，最高4板。

反证与边界

煤炭当日等权-0.25%，酿酒方向-0.31%；成交额环比+11.40%，资金流分类代理+494.7亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.4025 万亿
成交环比: +11.40%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 4335 / 1064 / 140
上涨覆盖: 78.26%
中位涨幅: +1.35%
MA20上方: 83.95%
20日新高 / 新低: 1672 / 106
涨停 / 跌停: 110 / 1
触板 / 未封: 126 / 16
封板率: 87.30%
最高连板: 4 板

收盘温度 89

广度27.39
27.39
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势16.79
16.79
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态14.86
14.86
输入与公式
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量能15
15
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
指数15
15
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 84.8

连板高度8.57
8.57
输入与公式
4.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数12
12
输入与公式
110.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率12
12
输入与公式
0.87 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率9.38
9.38
输入与公式
0.23 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价12
12
输入与公式
0.04 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应6.9
6.9
输入与公式
{"limitDown":1,"largeLoss":11} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.78 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比8.44
8.44
输入与公式
{"limitUp":110,"limitDown":1} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能6.47
6.47
输入与公式
1.02 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,982.65	+1.41%	1.1128 万亿
科创50	1,788.85	+4.14%	1,272.0 亿
深证成指	14,704.27	+2.44%	7,230.8 亿
创业板指	3,740.16	+3.14%	2,947.2 亿
中证1000	7,968.38	+2.56%	5,238.6 亿
国证2000	10,367.56	+2.49%	7,094.7 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	635	11.46%	+6.84%	+6.00%
趋势延续	665	12.01%	+2.66%	+2.35%
低位修复	526	9.50%	+1.20%	+0.76%
中间状态	3713	67.03%	+0.86%	+0.96%

三项风险

普涨后的广度持续性尚未确认

上涨占比78.26%、中位数涨幅+1.35%；单日扩张不等同连续扩张。

少数方向逆势承压

传媒、煤炭分别为-0.08%、-0.25%。

放量后的次日承接仍需验证

成交额环比+11.40%，126家触板中16家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度扩张能否延续

上涨占比继续高于50%，且MA20上方比例不显著低于今日84.0%。

电子化学品强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

酿酒弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日87.3%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,982.65 · MA5 3,943.51 · MA10 3,922.53 · MA20 3,879.71

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：已满足

支撑：MA20 3,879.71 · 近10日最低 3,799.52 · 近20日最低 3,743.36；压力：近10日最高 3,983.51 · 近20日最高 3,983.51

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-02-24	4,129.13	4,131.55	4,105.94	4,117.41	+0.87%
2026-02-25	4,123.78	4,167.84	4,122.70	4,147.23	+0.72%
2026-02-26	4,151.07	4,152.19	4,127.15	4,146.63	-0.01%
2026-02-27	4,128.90	4,166.23	4,128.36	4,162.88	+0.39%
2026-03-02	4,151.80	4,188.77	4,131.37	4,182.59	+0.47%
2026-03-03	4,189.41	4,197.23	4,116.01	4,122.68	-1.43%
2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

电子	趋势扩散	517	+3.94%	+5.81%	+20.06%	+3.27%	92.26%	95.36%	7,336.5 亿	30.54%	17	0	92.54	5.41
有色金属	低位修复	145	+2.76%	-0.73%	+21.14%	+2.30%	93.79%	93.79%	1,371.8 亿	5.71%	4	0	37.43	3.47
基础化工	修复延续	449	+2.64%	+1.18%	+14.40%	+2.03%	90.42%	87.75%	1,150.7 亿	4.79%	17	0	38.31	2.28
通信	趋势扩散	127	+2.36%	+6.70%	+19.99%	+1.57%	81.10%	94.49%	2,392.9 亿	9.96%	3	0	113.12	4.75
农林牧渔	修复延续	114	+2.32%	+0.15%	+10.18%	+1.50%	85.96%	87.72%	194.9 亿	0.81%	6	0	35.15	2.44
机械设备	修复延续	607	+2.31%	+2.83%	+17.18%	+1.82%	87.64%	91.93%	1,725.4 亿	7.18%	10	0	50.81	3.20
电力设备	修复延续	415	+2.25%	+1.95%	+16.62%	+1.75%	88.19%	90.84%	1,701.0 亿	7.08%	6	0	46.88	2.88
国防军工	修复延续	141	+2.15%	+0.30%	+14.59%	+1.95%	91.49%	93.62%	482.7 亿	2.01%	1	0	87.94	3.87
纺织服饰	修复延续	108	+1.72%	+0.68%	+12.59%	+1.36%	82.41%	82.41%	115.2 亿	0.48%	3	0	31.01	2.00
建筑装饰	修复延续	155	+1.66%	+1.44%	+12.61%	+1.16%	80.65%	80.00%	324.9 亿	1.35%	6	0	32.46	2.06
家用电器	修复延续	103	+1.64%	+1.29%	+11.75%	+1.35%	73.79%	84.47%	196.6 亿	0.82%	2	0	41.89	2.55
轻工制造	修复延续	165	+1.64%	+0.70%	+12.38%	+1.51%	84.24%	87.88%	151.6 亿	0.63%	3	0	31.41	2.26
石油石化	低位修复	48	+1.63%	-0.35%	+5.48%	+1.46%	91.67%	77.08%	126.8 亿	0.53%	1	0	41.48	2.07
汽车	修复延续	320	+1.60%	+1.28%	+12.23%	+1.37%	85.63%	84.38%	546.7 亿	2.28%	4	0	30.44	2.49
环保	修复延续	134	+1.54%	+1.19%	+13.41%	+1.10%	79.10%	84.33%	192.7 亿	0.80%	2	0	31.12	2.05
商贸零售	低位修复	100	+1.41%	-0.44%	+8.85%	+1.31%	83.00%	77.00%	140.8 亿	0.59%	3	0	31.73	1.92
综合	趋势扩散	20	+1.41%	+3.52%	+13.31%	+1.46%	80.00%	95.00%	49.71 亿	0.21%	0	0	49.28	2.93
建筑材料	修复延续	76	+1.40%	+0.06%	+12.08%	+1.14%	88.16%	85.53%	344.8 亿	1.44%	0	0	45.58	1.67
钢铁	低位修复	43	+1.35%	-1.18%	+5.40%	+0.65%	72.09%	46.51%	68.14 亿	0.28%	1	0	19.87	1.21
交通运输	低位修复	128	+1.16%	-0.56%	+4.60%	+0.82%	73.44%	57.81%	186.7 亿	0.78%	2	0	17.77	1.39
社会服务	低位修复	86	+1.09%	-0.58%	+14.59%	+0.44%	66.28%	83.72%	110.1 亿	0.46%	0	0	37.61	2.94
计算机	修复延续	357	+0.99%	+0.71%	+14.55%	+0.70%	69.47%	85.71%	1,371.6 亿	5.71%	2	0	86.42	3.62
食品饮料	修复延续	126	+0.95%	+0.72%	+10.06%	+0.55%	65.87%	68.25%	446.2 亿	1.86%	4	0	26.20	2.28
非银金融	低位修复	79	+0.87%	-0.41%	-0.11%	+0.70%	89.87%	35.44%	302.7 亿	1.26%	0	0	18.62	1.25
房地产	修复延续	95	+0.64%	+0.85%	+11.14%	+0.57%	63.16%	85.26%	151.4 亿	0.63%	1	0	36.27	1.13
美容护理	低位修复	32	+0.48%	-3.17%	+5.84%	+0.70%	62.50%	50.00%	36.05 亿	0.15%	0	0	26.61	2.40
公用事业	低位修复	139	+0.48%	-1.96%	+1.96%	+0.40%	61.15%	38.85%	412.7 亿	1.72%	1	0	26.45	1.61
医药生物	方向待明	504	+0.37%	+2.62%	+11.37%	-0.14%	45.04%	87.50%	1,613.1 亿	6.71%	10	0	41.03	2.62
银行	低位修复	42	+0.09%	-0.49%	-1.31%	0.00%	42.86%	16.67%	210.0 亿	0.87%	0	0	6.02	0.54
传媒	方向待明	131	-0.08%	-1.13%	+10.63%	0.00%	49.62%	76.34%	486.5 亿	2.03%	1	1	40.46	3.06
煤炭	方向待明	33	-0.25%	-1.49%	+5.16%	-0.30%	30.30%	87.88%	84.38 亿	0.35%	0	0	23.42	1.27

涨停生态

首板 95 家 · 多板 15 家 · 昨日涨停 64 家 · 今日晋级 15 家 · 晋级率 23.44%

4 板 · 3 家 · 金螳螂、澳洋健康、天洋新材

3 板 · 2 家 · 共进股份、神奇制药

2 板 · 10 家 · 中瓷电子、旭光电子、华正新材、华森制药、中石科技、利君股份、越剑智能、圣达生物

1 板 · 95 家 · 通富微电、兴森科技、太辰光、有研新材、杰瑞股份、天通股份、誉衡药业、聚和材料

行业聚类

基础化工 · 17 家 · 最高 4 板 · 天洋新材、圣达生物、振华股份、百合花、利尔化学、红宝丽

电子 · 17 家 · 最高 2 板 · 旭光电子、华正新材、中石科技、通富微电、兴森科技、有研新材

医药生物 · 10 家 · 最高 4 板 · 澳洋健康、神奇制药、华森制药、誉衡药业、海泰新光、太龙药业

机械设备 · 10 家 · 最高 2 板 · 越剑智能、杰瑞股份、合锻智能、冰轮环境、天准科技、黄河旋风

农林牧渔 · 6 家 · 最高 1 板 · 罗牛山、农发种业、天山生物、金健米业、京粮控股、*ST福成

建筑装饰 · 6 家 · 最高 4 板 · 金螳螂、甘咨询、亚翔集成、ST龙元、勘设股份、三维化学

电力设备 · 6 家 · 最高 1 板 · 聚和材料、思源电气、风范股份、华民股份、神马电力、中远通

有色金属 · 4 家 · 最高 1 板 · 北方铜业、贵研铂业、闽发铝业、华阳新材

汽车 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 正裕工业、中原内配、今飞凯达、日盈电子

食品饮料 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 桂发祥、一鸣食品、百合股份、阳光乳业

商贸零售 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 供销大集、益民集团、利群股份

纺织服饰 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 飞亚达、华生科技、哈森股份

轻工制造 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华源控股、亚振家居、富岭股份

通信 · 3 家 · 最高 3 板 · 共进股份、中瓷电子、太辰光

交通运输 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 龙洲股份、凤凰航运

家用电器 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · TCL智家、春光科技

环保 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 武汉天源、创元科技

计算机 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 鸿博股份、魅视科技

传媒 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 中广天择

公用事业 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 新中港

国防军工 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 利君股份

房地产 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 深深房A

石油石化 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 新叶股份

钢铁 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 常宝股份

连续晋级与首板

金螳螂	002081.SZ	建筑装饰	+10.02%	4	27.83 亿	主板	93054	104212	9	4/4	1.16 亿
澳洋健康	002172.SZ	医药生物	+9.91%	4	9.80 亿	主板	94915	94915	0	4/4	5,441.38 万
天洋新材	603330.SH	基础化工	+10.02%	4	1.39 亿	主板	92503	92503	0	4/4	1.96 亿
共进股份	603118.SH	通信	+10.02%	3	20.22 亿	主板	93022	95901	11	3/3	1.53 亿
神奇制药	600613.SH	医药生物	+9.98%	3	2.74 亿	主板	93028	93028	0	3/3	1.99 亿
中瓷电子	003031.SZ	通信	+10.00%	2	23.87 亿	主板	132127	133239	1	2/2	1.19 亿
旭光电子	600353.SH	电子	+9.99%	2	11.08 亿	主板	93056	94108	2	2/2	1.70 亿
华正新材	603186.SH	电子	+10.00%	2	8.62 亿	主板	92501	93104	1	5/10	4.14 亿
华森制药	002907.SZ	医药生物	+10.03%	2	3.13 亿	主板	93215	93215	0	2/2	8,501.34 万
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	+20.00%	2	2.94 亿	创业板	92500	92500	0	2/2	8.60 亿
利君股份	002651.SZ	国防军工	+10.01%	2	2.82 亿	主板	93330	93330	0	2/2	5,927.07 万
越剑智能	603095.SH	机械设备	+9.97%	2	1.61 亿	主板	93448	93448	0	3/4	3,227.93 万
圣达生物	603079.SH	基础化工	+9.99%	2	7,568.66 万	主板	93000	93000	0	2/2	7,201.25 万
正裕工业	603089.SH	汽车	+10.05%	2	6,833.39 万	主板	93036	93036	0	2/2	2,855.77 万
桂发祥	002820.SZ	食品饮料	+9.96%	2	5,411.53 万	主板	92500	92500	0	2/2	1.29 亿
通富微电	002156.SZ	电子	+10.01%	1	99.41 亿	主板	110009	131139	1	1/1	4.97 亿
兴森科技	002436.SZ	电子	+9.99%	1	57.19 亿	主板	133336	135121	1	1/1	2.10 亿
太辰光	300570.SZ	通信	+20.00%	1	45.08 亿	创业板	103554	103554	0	1/1	3.43 亿
有研新材	600206.SH	电子	+10.00%	1	37.36 亿	主板	94547	94547	0	1/1	6.53 亿
杰瑞股份	002353.SZ	机械设备	+10.00%	1	33.91 亿	主板	105627	105821	1	1/1	5,698.80 万

晋级未完成（最多16只）

蓝盾光电	300862.SZ	机械设备	+15.82%	22.53 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
坤泰股份	001260.SZ	汽车	-5.32%	3.19 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华西股份	000936.SZ	基础化工	-4.88%	10.23 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
理工能科	002322.SZ	计算机	-0.46%	6.84 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
博济医药	300404.SZ	医药生物	+1.50%	20.62 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
海洋王	002724.SZ	家用电器	+5.90%	6.81 亿	主板	94303	—	1	2/3	—
成都路桥	002628.SZ	建筑装饰	-6.83%	4.01 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
雪迪龙	002658.SZ	环保	-4.50%	2.22 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
重药控股	000950.SZ	医药生物	-4.29%	7.70 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
中源协和	600645.SH	医药生物	-4.25%	8.27 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
索菱股份	002766.SZ	汽车	-3.33%	2.97 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
艾华集团	603989.SH	电子	-2.64%	20.48 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
快意电梯	002774.SZ	机械设备	-2.56%	5.49 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
人民同泰	600829.SH	医药生物	-2.45%	7.21 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
豪美新材	002988.SZ	有色金属	-2.27%	2.73 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
西点药业	301130.SZ	医药生物	-2.01%	3.95 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	-9.97%	0	1.08 亿	主板	—	92500	0	—	5.07 亿

大跌样本

朗新科技	300682.SZ	计算机	-10.99%	4.91 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	-9.97%	1.08 亿	主板	—	92500	0	—	5.07 亿
英诺特	688253.SH	医药生物	-9.74%	3.00 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
菲林格尔	603226.SH	轻工制造	-8.56%	3.76 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
安妮股份	002235.SZ	轻工制造	-8.44%	8.24 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
儒意电影	002739.SZ	传媒	-8.34%	21.08 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
迅游科技	300467.SZ	传媒	-8.06%	4.72 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
矩阵股份	301365.SZ	建筑装饰	-7.83%	4.01 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
威胜信息	688100.SH	通信	-7.77%	3.12 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
开创电气	301448.SZ	机械设备	-7.32%	1.53 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
海容冷链	603187.SH	机械设备	-7.19%	3.63 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
成都路桥	002628.SZ	建筑装饰	-6.83%	4.01 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

恒兴股份	920107.BJ	基础化工	+87.58%	0	5.68 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
戴维医疗	300314.SZ	医药生物	+20.03%	1	3.76 亿	创业板	94436	94436	0	1/1	3,548.24 万
天山生物	300313.SZ	农林牧渔	+20.02%	1	2.53 亿	创业板	94800	94800	0	1/1	3,941.20 万
聚和材料	688503.SH	电力设备	+20.01%	1	25.40 亿	科创板	112639	143357	3	1/1	6,308.25 万
电连技术	300679.SZ	电子	+20.00%	1	17.75 亿	创业板	140818	141136	1	1/1	8,210.70 万
太辰光	300570.SZ	通信	+20.00%	1	45.08 亿	创业板	103554	103554	0	1/1	3.43 亿
海泰新光	688677.SH	医药生物	+20.00%	1	13.06 亿	科创板	130627	140654	2	1/1	253.91 万
苏州天脉	301626.SZ	电子	+20.00%	1	12.35 亿	创业板	104233	105848	1	1/1	5,510.86 万
天准科技	688003.SH	机械设备	+20.00%	1	11.00 亿	科创板	130019	144849	4	1/1	2,987.30 万
中远通	301516.SZ	电力设备	+20.00%	1	3.48 亿	创业板	130157	130157	0	1/1	984.39 万
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	+20.00%	2	2.94 亿	创业板	92500	92500	0	2/2	8.60 亿
金禄电子	301282.SZ	电子	+19.99%	1	11.25 亿	创业板	133854	133854	0	1/1	1.06 亿

跌幅居前

朗新科技	300682.SZ	计算机	-10.99%	4.91 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
北京文化	000802.SZ	传媒	-9.97%	1.08 亿	主板	—	92500	0	—	5.07 亿
英诺特	688253.SH	医药生物	-9.74%	3.00 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
菲林格尔	603226.SH	轻工制造	-8.56%	3.76 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
安妮股份	002235.SZ	轻工制造	-8.44%	8.24 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
儒意电影	002739.SZ	传媒	-8.34%	21.08 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
迅游科技	300467.SZ	传媒	-8.06%	4.72 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
矩阵股份	301365.SZ	建筑装饰	-7.83%	4.01 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
威胜信息	688100.SH	通信	-7.77%	3.12 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
开创电气	301448.SZ	机械设备	-7.32%	1.53 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
海容冷链	603187.SH	机械设备	-7.19%	3.63 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
成都路桥	002628.SZ	建筑装饰	-6.83%	4.01 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3190	+1.47%	76.24%	78.18%	+1.59%
创业板	1400	+2.05%	80.79%	93.07%	+2.92%
科创板	613	+3.01%	82.22%	94.78%	+2.36%
北交所	336	+1.52%	79.76%	80.95%	+1.73%

市值分层

小盘	2770	+1.62%	80.11%	33.62 亿
中盘	1662	+1.85%	76.53%	95.64 亿
大盘	831	+2.18%	76.77%	294.3 亿
超大盘	276	+2.02%	74.64%	1,389.7 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

电子化学品	趋势扩散	43/43	+5.09%	+7.30%	+24.19%	+5.09%	+7.41%	+23.87%	+0.00%	93.02%	97.67%	591.5 亿	2.46%	80.00%	+3.30%	4	0	29.60 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	趋势扩散	57/57	+4.77%	+6.05%	+18.92%	+4.79%	+6.03%	+18.11%	+0.02%	100.00%	98.25%	984.7 亿	4.10%	80.00%	+2.98%	4	0	93.08 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	趋势扩散	206/204	+4.67%	+6.47%	+20.16%	+4.62%	+6.40%	+19.48%	-0.05%	95.10%	97.06%	4,490.9 亿	18.69%	65.00%	+2.88%	8	0	230.5 亿	100.00%
先进封装	趋势扩散	204/204	+4.54%	+6.46%	+20.76%	+4.54%	+6.48%	+20.05%	-0.00%	97.06%	98.53%	3,385.3 亿	14.09%	80.00%	+2.75%	11	0	190.5 亿	100.00%
CPO	趋势扩散	212/212	+4.22%	+9.12%	+24.57%	+4.26%	+9.19%	+24.10%	+0.03%	95.75%	98.58%	5,210.4 亿	21.69%	80.00%	+2.43%	14	0	190.4 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	方向待明	80/80	+4.19%	+4.98%	+21.64%	+4.19%	+4.95%	+20.33%	+0.01%	93.75%	96.25%	551.7 亿	2.30%	60.00%	+2.39%	4	0	34.08 亿	100.00%
PCB	趋势扩散	236/236	+3.97%	+5.69%	+22.88%	+3.97%	+5.72%	+22.19%	+0.00%	94.92%	97.88%	2,831.6 亿	11.79%	65.00%	+2.18%	14	0	86.55 亿	100.00%
MLCC	方向待明	35/35	+2.92%	+4.18%	—	+2.92%	+4.07%	+28.11%	-0.00%	91.43%	100.00%	618.2 亿	2.57%	50.00%	+1.13%	1	0	7.45 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	趋势扩散	229/229	+2.85%	+5.12%	+17.91%	+2.83%	+5.11%	+17.30%	-0.02%	85.15%	90.83%	3,110.3 亿	12.95%	80.00%	+1.06%	8	0	59.06 亿	100.00%
商业航天	方向待明	507/507	+2.66%	+2.57%	+16.35%	+2.67%	+2.67%	+15.99%	+0.01%	91.32%	91.32%	3,336.5 亿	13.89%	65.00%	+0.87%	14	0	112.1 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/462	+2.65%	+3.27%	+16.49%	+2.66%	+3.28%	+16.03%	+0.01%	90.04%	91.99%	3,053.7 亿	12.71%	65.00%	+0.86%	7	0	73.03 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	方向待明	34/34	+2.30%	+1.36%	+18.15%	+2.30%	+1.39%	+17.99%	-0.00%	91.18%	91.18%	94.43 亿	0.39%	65.00%	+0.51%	0	0	3.13 亿	100.00%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	+2.16%	+2.45%	+16.14%	+2.16%	+2.41%	+15.74%	-0.00%	88.49%	95.68%	452.4 亿	1.88%	70.00%	+0.36%	2	0	10.84 亿	100.00%
创新药	方向待明	281/280	+0.39%	+2.92%	+9.41%	+0.39%	+2.96%	+9.57%	+0.00%	44.64%	85.00%	1,217.4 亿	5.07%	70.00%	-1.40%	5	0	10.55 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	低位修复	197/196	+0.34%	-0.33%	+11.81%	+0.34%	-0.40%	+11.45%	-0.00%	59.18%	79.08%	569.1 亿	2.37%	40.00%	-1.45%	1	1	-15.34 亿	100.00%
酿酒	方向待明	31/30	-0.31%	+0.52%	+7.85%	-1.25%	-1.46%	+3.89%	-0.94%	16.67%	50.00%	208.0 亿	0.87%	80.00%	-2.10%	0	0	-18.60 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

电子化学品 · 趋势扩散

领涨：中石科技（300684.SZ）+20.00%、奥来德（688378.SH）+19.99%、德邦科技（688035.SH）+14.40%

领跌：海星股份（603115.SH）-0.22%、思泉新材（301489.SZ）-0.17%、龙辰科技（920161.BJ）-0.11%

玻璃基板 · 趋势扩散

领涨：奥来德（688378.SH）+19.99%、德邦科技（688035.SH）+14.40%、通富微电（002156.SZ）+10.01%

领跌：

存储芯片 · 趋势扩散

领涨：聚和材料（688503.SH）+20.01%、天准科技（688003.SH）+20.00%、中微半导（688380.SH）+16.81%

领跌：中青宝（300052.SZ）-2.70%、英唐智控（300131.SZ）-1.56%、托伦斯（301583.SZ）-0.95%

先进封装 · 趋势扩散

领涨：天准科技（688003.SH）+20.00%、创达新材（920012.BJ）+16.68%、德邦科技（688035.SH）+14.40%

领跌：托伦斯（301583.SZ）-0.95%、八亿时空（688181.SH）-0.63%、绿通科技（301322.SZ）-0.47%

CPO · 趋势扩散

领涨：电连技术（300679.SZ）+20.00%、太辰光（300570.SZ）+20.00%、天准科技（688003.SH）+20.00%

领跌：华阳集团（002906.SZ）-2.43%、英唐智控（300131.SZ）-1.56%、景旺电子（603228.SH）-1.10%

光刻胶 · 方向待明

领涨：聚和材料（688503.SH）+20.01%、奥来德（688378.SH）+19.99%、钢研纳克（300797.SZ）+12.62%

领跌：阿拉丁（688179.SH）-1.53%、新华医疗（600587.SH）-1.26%、龙鑫智能（920117.BJ）-0.75%

PCB · 趋势扩散

领涨：电连技术（300679.SZ）+20.00%、天准科技（688003.SH）+20.00%、金禄电子（301282.SZ）+19.99%

领跌：ST合力泰（002217.SZ）-1.32%、光韵达（300227.SZ）-1.31%、晨丰科技（603685.SH）-1.26%

MLCC · 方向待明

领涨：贵研铂业（600459.SH）+10.01%、中电港（001287.SZ）+6.37%、博杰股份（002975.SZ）+6.02%

领跌：龙鑫智能（920117.BJ）-0.75%、昀冢科技（688260.SH）-0.63%、裕兴股份（300305.SZ）-0.15%

液冷服务器 · 趋势扩散

领涨：聚和材料（688503.SH）+20.01%、苏州天脉（301626.SZ）+20.00%、中石科技（300684.SZ）+20.00%

领跌：春秋电子（603890.SH）-4.53%、中鼎股份（000887.SZ）-3.99%、城地香江（603887.SH）-3.69%

商业航天 · 方向待明

领涨：聚和材料（688503.SH）+20.01%、金禄电子（301282.SZ）+19.99%、奥来德（688378.SH）+19.99%

领跌：雪迪龙（002658.SZ）-4.50%、ST亚光（300123.SZ）-3.79%、振江股份（603507.SH）-3.01%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：电连技术（300679.SZ）+20.00%、天准科技（688003.SH）+20.00%、中微半导（688380.SH）+16.81%

领跌：华是科技（301218.SZ）-6.14%、春秋电子（603890.SH）-4.53%、中鼎股份（000887.SZ）-3.99%

金属新材料 · 方向待明

领涨：有研粉材（688456.SH）+7.82%、图南股份（300855.SZ）+5.29%、悦安新材（688786.SH）+5.05%

领跌：昆工科技（920152.BJ）-1.36%、中科磁业（301141.SZ）-0.81%、宁波韵升（600366.SH）-0.24%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：创元科技（000551.SZ）+10.00%、飞亚达（000026.SZ）+9.99%、天润工业（002283.SZ）+8.92%

领跌：中鼎股份（000887.SZ）-3.99%、*ST纳川（300198.SZ）-3.91%、宁波东力（002164.SZ）-2.28%

创新药 · 方向待明

领涨：华森制药（002907.SZ）+10.03%、*ST未名（002581.SZ）+10.02%、贵研铂业（600459.SH）+10.01%

领跌：重药控股（000950.SZ）-4.29%、中源协和（600645.SH）-4.25%、凯普生物（300639.SZ）-4.06%

文化传媒 · 低位修复

领涨：中广天择（603721.SH）+10.02%、易点天下（301171.SZ）+7.77%、金利华电（300069.SZ）+4.89%

领跌：北京文化（000802.SZ）-9.97%、安妮股份（002235.SZ）-8.44%、儒意电影（002739.SZ）-8.34%

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：*ST莫高（600543.SH）+2.51%、ST椰岛（600238.SH）+1.56%、威龙股份（603779.SH）+1.40%

领跌：迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）-4.53%、古井贡酒（000596.SZ）-4.35%、山西汾酒（600809.SH）-3.71%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

AI与半导体	129	+4.65%	+3.82%	+4.33%	+8.47%	475.0 亿	100.00%	28/78	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · -1.32%
中小盘宽基	140	+2.90%	+2.60%	+3.46%	+11.03%	250.0 亿	100.00%	16/47	易方达创业板ETF · -1.13%
资源周期	59	+2.49%	+2.82%	-2.89%	+17.70%	56.49 亿	100.00%	13/30	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · +0.88%
大盘宽基	83	+1.39%	+1.35%	+0.28%	+3.22%	101.3 亿	100.00%	11/30	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · -1.95%
医药健康	52	+0.60%	+0.50%	+0.18%	+5.40%	58.76 亿	100.00%	9/33	国泰上证科创板创新药ETF · +3.85%
金融地产	50	+0.34%	+0.42%	-0.62%	-1.60%	58.18 亿	100.00%	17/19	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · +0.04%
红利防御	98	+0.07%	+0.10%	-1.12%	+0.08%	39.72 亿	100.00%	17/37	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · +0.10%
消费	46	+0.03%	+0.56%	-0.57%	+3.31%	24.58 亿	100.00%	3/18	鹏华中证酒ETF · -0.81%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

AI硬件与数字经济	电子、通信、计算机	1001	+2.69%	+4.10%	+18.09%	82.72%	91.81%	46.21%	22
资源周期	有色金属、基础化工、石油石化、钢铁、煤炭	718	+2.38%	+0.43%	+14.20%	87.33%	85.79%	11.66%	23
高端制造	机械设备、电力设备、国防军工、汽车	1483	+2.12%	+2.01%	+15.71%	87.73%	90.16%	18.55%	21
基建链	建筑装饰、建筑材料	231	+1.58%	+0.99%	+12.44%	83.12%	81.82%	2.79%	6
大消费	农林牧渔、家用电器、商贸零售、社会服务、食品饮料	529	+1.49%	+0.28%	+10.92%	75.05%	79.77%	4.53%	15
公用防御	环保、交通运输、公用事业	401	+1.05%	-0.46%	+6.63%	71.07%	60.10%	3.30%	5
金融地产	非银金融、房地产、银行	216	+0.62%	+0.13%	+4.61%	68.98%	53.70%	2.76%	1
医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	536	+0.37%	+2.28%	+11.04%	46.08%	85.26%	6.86%	10

近五个交易日

2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4

边际变化

成交额：扩张 · +11.40%

上涨覆盖：扩大 · +34.94%

涨停家数：扩张 · 46

最高连板：压缩 · -1

五日成交中位：2.3356 万亿 · 温度区间：46.3–89 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：存储芯片 3次、CPO 2次、创新药 2次、电子化学品 2次、MLCC 1次、先进封装 1次

行业：电子 4次、有色金属 2次、通信 2次、医药生物 1次、基础化工 1次、房地产 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日+11.4%，上涨覆盖78.3%，五日成交中位23355.9亿元。

方向承接 · 电子化学品当日收益+5.09%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 基础化工涨停17家，最高4板。

负反馈 · 跌停1家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 乐观条件已满足

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 23355.9亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 电子化学品

确认：电子化学品继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 23.4%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖78.3%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 34 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4

情绪九维 84.8

连板高度8.57
8.57
输入与公式
4 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数12
12
输入与公式
110 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率12
12
输入与公式
0.873015873015873 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率9.38
9.38
输入与公式
0.234375 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价12
12
输入与公式
0.035155796875000006 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应6.9
6.9
输入与公式
{"limitDown":1,"largeLoss":11} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.7826322440873804 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比8.44
8.44
输入与公式
{"limitUp":110,"limitDown":1} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能6.47
6.47
输入与公式
1.0236488868359859 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	635	11.46%	+6.84%	+6.00%
趋势延续	665	12.01%	+2.66%	+2.35%
低位修复	526	9.50%	+1.20%	+0.76%
中间状态	3713	67.03%	+0.86%	+0.96%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 64 家 · 今日晋级 15 家 · 晋级率 23.44%

晋级名单

金螳螂	002081.SZ	建筑装饰	4	+10.02%
澳洋健康	002172.SZ	医药生物	4	+9.91%
天洋新材	603330.SH	基础化工	4	+10.02%
共进股份	603118.SH	通信	3	+10.02%
神奇制药	600613.SH	医药生物	3	+9.98%
中瓷电子	003031.SZ	通信	2	+10.00%
旭光电子	600353.SH	电子	2	+9.99%
华正新材	603186.SH	电子	2	+10.00%
华森制药	002907.SZ	医药生物	2	+10.03%
中石科技	300684.SZ	电子	2	+20.00%
利君股份	002651.SZ	国防军工	2	+10.01%
越剑智能	603095.SH	机械设备	2	+9.97%
圣达生物	603079.SH	基础化工	2	+9.99%
正裕工业	603089.SH	汽车	2	+10.05%
桂发祥	002820.SZ	食品饮料	2	+9.96%
通富微电	002156.SZ	电子	1	+10.01%
兴森科技	002436.SZ	电子	1	+9.99%
太辰光	300570.SZ	通信	1	+20.00%
有研新材	600206.SH	电子	1	+10.00%
杰瑞股份	002353.SZ	机械设备	1	+10.00%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
弱势方向修复	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
方向剪刀差	1	1	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	1	0	0	1	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
市场持续性	1	0	1	0	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%

共 20 条假设

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 待结算

白酒逆势偏弱是否开始收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 白酒相对全A的落后幅度收窄，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势从前排扩散至方向中位数。
风险: 单日防御与进攻风格切换可能造成白酒相对收益波动，不能以一天判断中期方向。
反证: 8月17日白酒方向下跌1.25%，是16个重点方向中唯一明显走弱者。

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 待结算

高封板率与多板梯队能否保持稳定

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于80%、多板梯队不少于12家、跌停家数不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率跌破70%，或多板梯队少于8家且跌停家数同步增加。
风险: 涨跌幅制度因交易板与ST状态而异，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径，不能只看约10%涨跌幅。
反证: 8月17日封板率87.30%、多板15家、跌停1家处于较强状态，高位样本次日分化可能使指标快速回落。

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 待结算

电子化学品强势能否扩散而非单日脉冲

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对收益，方向内上涨覆盖保持60%以上，且成交占比未明显收缩。
失效条件: 相对收益转负、上涨覆盖跌破45%，或前排上涨而方向中位数转负。
风险: 方向篮子是透明映射后的市场观察口径，不等同于官方指数，也不代表基本面兑现。
反证: 8月17日单日涨幅5.09%位居方向第一，短线拥挤与次日分化风险同时上升。

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 待结算

广度与量能共振能否延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖保持50%以上、MA20上方比例保持80%以上，且成交额较8月17日收缩不超过10%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖跌破40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 8月17日属于单日强扩散，次日可能出现自然均值回归，不能把一天的普涨外推为趋势。
反证: 8月17日上涨覆盖78.26%、成交额环比增加11.40%，高基数本身提高了次日延续难度。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 未确认

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。

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确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。

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确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:02:57.457826+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。