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2026-07-07

结论与证据

全A收盘为693家上涨、4797家下跌，上涨占比12.56%；成交2.5985万亿元，环比-16.51%。单日广度显著转弱，但23.7%样本仍站在MA20上方，同时有34家封板、50家跌停，更接近结构分歧，而不是所有趋势同步失效。

广度承压 · 量能收缩 · MA20上方24% · 34家封板 · 温度17.7

支持证据

15方向中先进封装当日-0.86%居前；62家触板、封板率54.8%，最高6板。

反证与边界

医药生物当日等权-3.83%，创新药方向-3.85%；成交额环比-16.51%，资金流分类代理-834.0亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 2.5985 万亿
成交环比: -16.51%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 693 / 4797 / 27
上涨覆盖: 12.56%
中位涨幅: -2.91%
MA20上方: 23.74%
20日新高 / 新低: 130 / 1516
涨停 / 跌停: 34 / 50
触板 / 未封: 62 / 28
封板率: 54.84%
最高连板: 6 板

收盘温度 17.7

广度4.4
4.4
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势4.75
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6.07
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 33.7

连板高度12.86
12.86
输入与公式
6.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数4.08
4.08
输入与公式
34.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率7.74
7.74
输入与公式
0.55 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率3.29
3.29
输入与公式
0.08 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价0
0
输入与公式
-0.02 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":50,"largeLoss":253} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度1.88
1.88
输入与公式
0.13 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比1.91
1.91
输入与公式
{"limitUp":34,"limitDown":50} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能1.92
1.92
输入与公式
0.80 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,990.24	-1.26%	1.1964 万亿
科创50	2,001.59	+0.27%	1,595.6 亿
深证成指	15,225.11	-1.24%	8,279.4 亿
创业板指	3,911.91	-0.94%	2,887.6 亿
中证1000	8,301.80	-2.02%	5,444.6 亿
国证2000	10,719.78	-2.46%	7,162.6 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	113	2.05%	+7.07%	+6.02%
趋势延续	127	2.30%	+1.75%	+1.52%
低位修复	289	5.24%	+1.89%	+1.16%
中间状态	4988	90.41%	-3.23%	-3.10%

三项风险

单日市场广度明显承压

下跌4797家，上涨占比仅12.56%；中位数涨幅-2.91%。

少数方向逆势承压

石油石化、医药生物分别为-3.70%、-3.83%。

缩量与炸板共同降温

成交额环比-16.51%，62家触板中28家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度与趋势存量是否继续背离

若上涨占比修复且MA20上方比例保持高位，分歧仍偏结构性；两者同步下滑则风险升级。

先进封装强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

创新药弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日54.8%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,990.24 · MA5 4,043.29 · MA10 4,064.31 · MA20 4,066.06

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 4,066.06 · 近10日最低 3,971.71 · 近20日最低 3,955.91；压力：近10日最高 4,143.31 · 近20日最高 4,175.35

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-01-06	4,026.02	4,083.67	4,025.09	4,083.67	+1.50%
2026-01-07	4,083.84	4,098.78	4,069.44	4,085.77	+0.05%
2026-01-08	4,077.72	4,093.87	4,067.12	4,082.98	-0.07%
2026-01-09	4,086.76	4,121.72	4,083.62	4,120.43	+0.92%
2026-01-12	4,134.89	4,168.36	4,119.88	4,165.29	+1.09%
2026-01-13	4,169.70	4,179.70	4,126.23	4,138.76	-0.64%
2026-01-14	4,138.65	4,190.87	4,103.62	4,126.09	-0.31%
2026-01-15	4,106.22	4,133.07	4,096.85	4,112.60	-0.33%
2026-01-16	4,127.06	4,140.23	4,091.81	4,101.91	-0.26%
2026-01-19	4,090.72	4,126.52	4,090.06	4,114.00	+0.29%
2026-01-20	4,116.37	4,128.93	4,080.29	4,113.65	-0.01%
2026-01-21	4,103.53	4,135.96	4,103.53	4,116.94	+0.08%
2026-01-22	4,126.07	4,140.84	4,109.92	4,122.58	+0.14%
2026-01-23	4,130.11	4,143.75	4,120.20	4,136.16	+0.33%
2026-01-26	4,144.78	4,160.99	4,124.70	4,132.61	-0.09%
2026-01-27	4,125.22	4,158.80	4,101.83	4,139.90	+0.18%
2026-01-28	4,150.22	4,170.15	4,138.02	4,151.24	+0.27%
2026-01-29	4,155.92	4,170.21	4,138.30	4,157.98	+0.16%
2026-01-30	4,131.99	4,152.85	4,064.78	4,117.95	-0.96%
2026-02-02	4,079.71	4,103.41	4,013.66	4,015.75	-2.48%
2026-02-03	4,043.91	4,069.42	4,002.78	4,067.74	+1.29%
2026-02-04	4,064.68	4,104.62	4,062.68	4,102.20	+0.85%
2026-02-05	4,075.03	4,088.90	4,048.94	4,075.92	-0.64%
2026-02-06	4,040.30	4,095.03	4,029.97	4,065.58	-0.25%
2026-02-09	4,103.54	4,123.16	4,093.06	4,123.09	+1.41%
2026-02-10	4,127.77	4,134.34	4,117.56	4,128.37	+0.13%
2026-02-11	4,124.43	4,142.56	4,122.43	4,131.99	+0.09%
2026-02-12	4,136.99	4,140.59	4,124.13	4,134.02	+0.05%
2026-02-13	4,115.92	4,123.84	4,079.77	4,082.07	-1.26%
2026-02-24	4,129.13	4,131.55	4,105.94	4,117.41	+0.87%
2026-02-25	4,123.78	4,167.84	4,122.70	4,147.23	+0.72%
2026-02-26	4,151.07	4,152.19	4,127.15	4,146.63	-0.01%
2026-02-27	4,128.90	4,166.23	4,128.36	4,162.88	+0.39%
2026-03-02	4,151.80	4,188.77	4,131.37	4,182.59	+0.47%
2026-03-03	4,189.41	4,197.23	4,116.01	4,122.68	-1.43%
2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

银行	方向待明	42	-0.40%	+3.90%	-4.82%	-0.44%	28.57%	19.05%	247.8 亿	0.95%	0	0	5.86	0.53
电子	退潮观察	511	-1.41%	-9.28%	+11.64%	-2.23%	31.70%	35.42%	8,327.0 亿	32.05%	7	4	105.91	6.09
传媒	方向待明	131	-1.56%	-0.47%	-9.77%	-2.18%	17.56%	19.08%	511.1 亿	1.97%	0	0	38.17	2.80
环保	方向待明	134	-1.69%	+0.57%	-5.32%	-2.34%	18.66%	22.39%	195.1 亿	0.75%	1	1	28.93	1.97
钢铁	方向待明	43	-1.94%	+0.56%	-7.16%	-2.13%	6.98%	9.30%	72.09 亿	0.28%	1	0	18.02	1.09
轻工制造	方向待明	167	-1.98%	+1.39%	-7.26%	-2.44%	16.77%	23.35%	164.5 亿	0.63%	1	2	30.48	2.18
美容护理	方向待明	30	-2.03%	+2.61%	-2.43%	-2.59%	10.00%	30.00%	31.65 亿	0.12%	1	0	25.96	2.27
非银金融	方向待明	79	-2.26%	+1.19%	+5.33%	-2.55%	7.59%	53.16%	558.3 亿	2.15%	1	0	18.22	1.27
农林牧渔	方向待明	114	-2.30%	+4.56%	-4.65%	-2.41%	5.26%	41.23%	172.2 亿	0.66%	0	0	36.06	2.21
交通运输	方向待明	128	-2.33%	+3.04%	-4.28%	-2.37%	8.59%	28.13%	217.2 亿	0.84%	0	1	17.95	1.32
电力设备	退潮观察	413	-2.43%	-4.50%	-7.66%	-2.89%	13.32%	13.80%	2,011.1 亿	7.74%	4	4	47.35	2.94
建筑材料	退潮观察	76	-2.50%	-3.42%	-5.96%	-2.74%	11.84%	17.11%	390.3 亿	1.50%	0	0	44.86	1.73
汽车	方向待明	318	-2.65%	+1.88%	-7.89%	-2.86%	8.49%	23.27%	777.2 亿	2.99%	3	3	31.32	2.52
机械设备	方向待明	604	-2.68%	-1.59%	-4.38%	-2.99%	13.58%	26.16%	2,381.8 亿	9.17%	1	7	52.63	3.34
食品饮料	方向待明	126	-2.70%	+2.20%	-7.53%	-2.89%	5.56%	14.29%	229.6 亿	0.88%	0	1	24.57	2.08
有色金属	退潮观察	145	-2.82%	-3.91%	-0.54%	-3.00%	15.17%	12.41%	1,381.9 亿	5.32%	0	1	41.22	3.53
基础化工	方向待明	444	-2.86%	-1.93%	-1.77%	-3.23%	13.29%	16.44%	1,443.7 亿	5.56%	6	5	38.66	2.28
综合	方向待明	20	-2.86%	-1.07%	-6.98%	-2.85%	10.00%	10.00%	48.46 亿	0.19%	0	0	52.98	2.64
社会服务	方向待明	85	-2.86%	-0.16%	-7.97%	-2.90%	7.06%	8.24%	105.2 亿	0.40%	0	0	36.68	2.71
纺织服饰	方向待明	108	-2.87%	+2.49%	-4.18%	-3.03%	5.56%	28.70%	109.4 亿	0.42%	0	3	29.07	1.74
计算机	退潮观察	359	-2.88%	-3.53%	-10.00%	-2.97%	8.64%	12.53%	1,119.2 亿	4.31%	4	1	81.32	3.38
建筑装饰	方向待明	155	-2.96%	-0.90%	-8.03%	-2.84%	9.68%	18.71%	304.0 亿	1.17%	1	6	29.14	1.92
通信	退潮观察	127	-2.98%	-8.15%	-9.27%	-3.10%	19.69%	11.02%	1,805.5 亿	6.95%	0	1	106.25	4.48
公用事业	方向待明	138	-2.99%	-1.76%	-14.18%	-3.15%	5.80%	6.52%	478.1 亿	1.84%	0	0	24.45	1.55
商贸零售	方向待明	99	-3.03%	-0.24%	-8.74%	-3.07%	7.07%	11.11%	118.3 亿	0.46%	0	1	31.09	1.69
家用电器	方向待明	102	-3.11%	-0.36%	-5.33%	-3.10%	7.84%	23.53%	266.5 亿	1.03%	0	1	42.46	2.54
国防军工	方向待明	140	-3.21%	-2.90%	-0.98%	-3.40%	7.14%	25.71%	728.5 亿	2.80%	0	2	75.73	3.91
房地产	方向待明	95	-3.30%	+0.15%	-11.23%	-3.16%	6.32%	14.74%	171.7 亿	0.66%	2	3	33.84	1.13
煤炭	方向待明	33	-3.36%	+4.68%	-19.19%	-3.51%	0.00%	18.18%	107.4 亿	0.41%	0	0	20.69	1.20
石油石化	方向待明	48	-3.70%	+0.93%	-9.45%	-3.45%	6.25%	16.67%	162.7 亿	0.63%	0	1	37.17	2.02
医药生物	方向待明	503	-3.83%	+3.31%	+1.72%	-3.75%	5.17%	48.11%	1,347.2 亿	5.18%	1	2	36.43	2.30

涨停生态

首板 28 家 · 多板 6 家 · 昨日涨停 73 家 · 今日晋级 6 家 · 晋级率 8.22%

6 板 · 1 家 · 恒尚节能

5 板 · 2 家 · ST海王、宜宾纸业

2 板 · 3 家 · 万通发展、大恒科技、白云电器

1 板 · 28 家 · 华天科技、有研新材、TCL中环、有研硅、华微电子、百合花、佛塑科技、宿迁联盛

行业聚类

电子 · 7 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华天科技、有研新材、有研硅、华微电子、实益达、视源股份

基础化工 · 6 家 · 最高 1 板 · 百合花、佛塑科技、宿迁联盛、双星新材、雅化集团、晨光新材

电力设备 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 白云电器、TCL中环、中远通、金时科技

计算机 · 4 家 · 最高 2 板 · 大恒科技、声迅股份、力鼎光电、魅视科技

汽车 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 天海电子、圣龙股份、多利科技

房地产 · 2 家 · 最高 2 板 · 万通发展、大名城

医药生物 · 1 家 · 最高 5 板 · ST海王

建筑装饰 · 1 家 · 最高 6 板 · 恒尚节能

机械设备 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华菱精工

环保 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 劲旅环境

美容护理 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 依依股份

轻工制造 · 1 家 · 最高 5 板 · 宜宾纸业

钢铁 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 宝地矿业

非银金融 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 浙江东方

连续晋级与首板

恒尚节能	603137.SH	建筑装饰	+9.98%	6	1,518.40 万	主板	92503	92503	0	6/6	3.85 亿
ST海王	000078.SZ	医药生物	+9.76%	5	3.78 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
宜宾纸业	600793.SH	轻工制造	+9.99%	5	3.21 亿	主板	94637	94637	0	6/11	2,620.76 万
万通发展	600246.SH	房地产	+9.99%	2	46.42 亿	主板	94816	150000	39	2/2	543.86 万
大恒科技	600288.SH	计算机	+9.97%	2	18.70 亿	主板	93406	145148	11	2/2	1,530.67 万
白云电器	603861.SH	电力设备	+9.99%	2	6.68 亿	主板	95121	100133	5	2/2	3,699.22 万
华天科技	002185.SZ	电子	+9.98%	1	120.0 亿	主板	103015	131618	5	1/1	4.19 亿
有研新材	600206.SH	电子	+10.00%	1	45.59 亿	主板	94536	112633	1	1/1	2.78 亿
TCL中环	002129.SZ	电力设备	+9.98%	1	37.97 亿	主板	100524	132657	1	1/1	1.39 亿
有研硅	688432.SH	电子	+20.00%	1	33.89 亿	科创板	95640	141840	6	1/1	8,477.26 万
华微电子	600360.SH	电子	+9.98%	1	28.16 亿	主板	134508	142132	4	1/1	8,671.47 万
百合花	603823.SH	基础化工	+10.01%	1	21.18 亿	主板	103506	145506	1	1/1	3,154.65 万
佛塑科技	000973.SZ	基础化工	+10.04%	1	14.43 亿	主板	93103	134503	3	1/1	4,966.48 万
宿迁联盛	603065.SH	基础化工	+9.99%	1	13.51 亿	主板	93732	144050	2	1/1	1,160.12 万
实益达	002137.SZ	电子	+10.01%	1	11.20 亿	主板	95357	131354	5	1/1	6,022.24 万
双星新材	002585.SZ	基础化工	+9.96%	1	4.81 亿	主板	94315	94315	0	1/1	1.47 亿
雅化集团	002497.SZ	基础化工	+10.00%	1	4.37 亿	主板	92500	92500	0	1/1	3.71 亿
中远通	301516.SZ	电力设备	+20.00%	1	4.18 亿	创业板	100933	131609	1	1/1	3,277.32 万
天海电子	001365.SZ	汽车	+10.00%	1	3.38 亿	主板	93818	93818	0	1/1	1.67 亿
声迅股份	003004.SZ	计算机	+10.00%	1	2.60 亿	主板	110854	110854	0	1/1	1.20 亿

晋级未完成（最多16只）

*ST东智	002175.SZ	机械设备	-5.92%	3.39 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
ST星农	603789.SH	机械设备	-8.58%	1.59 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
ST洲际	600759.SH	石油石化	-6.01%	5.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
金科股份	000656.SZ	房地产	-5.59%	11.81 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
ST龙大	002726.SZ	食品饮料	-0.68%	2.45 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
先锋电子	002767.SZ	机械设备	-6.75%	3.31 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
晋拓股份	603211.SH	汽车	-6.30%	12.94 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
阿科力	603722.SH	基础化工	+1.58%	8.81 亿	主板	92503	—	3	2/3	—
星网锐捷	002396.SZ	通信	+2.76%	47.91 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
贤丰控股	002141.SZ	电子	+3.54%	14.71 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST清越	688496.SH	电子	-13.59%	1,718.43 万	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
爱仕达	002403.SZ	家用电器	-10.02%	2.04 亿	主板	—	110006	17	—	599.97 万
爱普股份	603020.SH	基础化工	-10.01%	2.77 亿	主板	—	150000	35	—	103.12 万
中天精装	002989.SZ	建筑装饰	-9.99%	3.32 亿	主板	—	111051	19	—	108.31 万
东方盛虹	000301.SZ	石油石化	-9.99%	11.34 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华通线缆	605196.SH	电力设备	-9.98%	5.91 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

利通电子	603629.SH	电子	-10.00%	32.38 亿	主板	—	144644	3	—	483.60 万
火炬电子	603678.SH	国防军工	-10.00%	26.95 亿	主板	—	140459	0	—	1.25 亿
杭电股份	603618.SH	电力设备	-10.00%	23.19 亿	主板	—	103604	1	—	2.67 亿
江钨装备	600397.SH	机械设备	-10.00%	20.65 亿	主板	—	150000	4	—	6,737.92 万
旭光电子	600353.SH	电子	-10.00%	19.21 亿	主板	—	144329	4	—	2,996.39 万
锋龙股份	002931.SZ	机械设备	-10.00%	13.03 亿	主板	—	103024	0	—	1.64 亿
东方盛虹	000301.SZ	石油石化	-9.99%	11.34 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
德新科技	603032.SH	电力设备	-9.98%	9.52 亿	主板	—	105614	4	—	1.02 亿
华锡有色	600301.SH	有色金属	-10.01%	8.54 亿	主板	—	140706	7	—	4,150.15 万
华通线缆	605196.SH	电力设备	-9.98%	5.91 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
首开股份	600376.SH	房地产	-10.08%	5.78 亿	主板	—	135118	0	—	837.08 万
中天火箭	003009.SZ	国防军工	-10.00%	5.33 亿	主板	—	104448	1	—	5,044.94 万

大跌样本

*ST卓然	688121.SH	机械设备	-20.06%	226.55 万	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST泉为	300716.SZ	电力设备	-20.01%	3.71 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
显盈科技	301067.SZ	电子	-19.73%	4.07 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
元道退	301139.SZ	通信	-16.34%	6,735.15 万	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
科莱瑞迪	920072.BJ	医药生物	-15.37%	1.17 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
矩阵股份	301365.SZ	建筑装饰	-14.35%	4.21 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
富吉瑞	688272.SH	国防军工	-14.29%	1.79 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
协昌科技	301418.SZ	机械设备	-14.04%	2.60 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金戈新材	920083.BJ	基础化工	-13.85%	2.34 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
彩客科技	920206.BJ	基础化工	-13.74%	1.21 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
*ST清越	688496.SH	电子	-13.59%	1,718.43 万	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
信测标准	300938.SZ	社会服务	-12.57%	12.69 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

夜光明	920527.BJ	纺织服饰	+25.06%	0	1.27 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
有研硅	688432.SH	电子	+20.00%	1	33.89 亿	科创板	95640	141840	6	1/1	8,477.26 万
中远通	301516.SZ	电力设备	+20.00%	1	4.18 亿	创业板	100933	131609	1	1/1	3,277.32 万
威尔高	301251.SZ	电子	+20.00%	1	2.15 亿	创业板	92500	92500	0	1/1	1.51 亿
东微半导	688261.SH	电子	+16.33%	0	19.03 亿	科创板	94612	—	2	0/0	—
上海合晶	688584.SH	电子	+15.31%	0	11.40 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
先锋精科	688605.SH	电子	+15.22%	0	13.64 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
和顺科技	301237.SZ	基础化工	+14.63%	0	7.43 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
致远新能	300985.SZ	机械设备	+14.43%	0	6.28 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
星辉娱乐	300043.SZ	传媒	+14.13%	0	9.01 亿	创业板	95203	—	1	0/0	—
沐曦股份	688802.SH	电子	+14.09%	0	35.76 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
欣锐科技	300745.SZ	汽车	+12.72%	0	11.16 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

跌幅居前

*ST卓然	688121.SH	机械设备	-20.06%	226.55 万	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST泉为	300716.SZ	电力设备	-20.01%	3.71 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
显盈科技	301067.SZ	电子	-19.73%	4.07 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
元道退	301139.SZ	通信	-16.34%	6,735.15 万	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
科莱瑞迪	920072.BJ	医药生物	-15.37%	1.17 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
矩阵股份	301365.SZ	建筑装饰	-14.35%	4.21 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
富吉瑞	688272.SH	国防军工	-14.29%	1.79 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
协昌科技	301418.SZ	机械设备	-14.04%	2.60 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金戈新材	920083.BJ	基础化工	-13.85%	2.34 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
彩客科技	920206.BJ	基础化工	-13.74%	1.21 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
*ST清越	688496.SH	电子	-13.59%	1,718.43 万	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
信测标准	300938.SZ	社会服务	-12.57%	12.69 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3189	-2.65%	10.98%	22.55%	+1.69%
创业板	1396	-2.92%	11.68%	22.71%	+3.06%
科创板	609	-2.32%	20.69%	36.62%	+2.63%
北交所	323	-1.80%	16.72%	15.79%	+1.80%

市值分层

小盘	2759	-2.99%	8.41%	32.40 亿
中盘	1655	-2.63%	12.87%	95.17 亿
大盘	828	-1.94%	20.17%	304.7 亿
超大盘	275	-1.23%	29.45%	1,368.0 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

先进封装	趋势转弱	204/200	-0.86%	-10.61%	+17.05%	-0.92%	-10.36%	+15.90%	-0.05%	38.50%	43.00%	4,133.9 亿	15.91%	20.00%	+1.77%	4	1	23.61 亿	99.02%
存储芯片	趋势转弱	206/201	-1.13%	-9.58%	+24.13%	-1.16%	-9.64%	+22.81%	-0.03%	35.32%	51.24%	5,081.1 亿	19.55%	30.00%	+1.51%	4	0	-135.5 亿	98.54%
电子化学品	趋势转弱	43/42	-1.28%	-10.97%	+24.33%	-1.28%	-11.19%	+22.21%	-0.00%	35.71%	40.48%	625.6 亿	2.41%	5.00%	+1.35%	0	0	-11.86 亿	97.67%
金属新材料	趋势转弱	34/34	-1.49%	-5.09%	-1.66%	-1.49%	-4.94%	-2.21%	-0.00%	26.47%	20.59%	151.1 亿	0.58%	5.00%	+1.14%	0	0	-9,724.50 万	100.00%
光刻胶	趋势转弱	80/79	-1.67%	-9.22%	+19.06%	-1.67%	-9.11%	+17.28%	-0.00%	30.38%	40.51%	679.7 亿	2.62%	10.00%	+0.97%	1	0	-13.72 亿	98.75%
玻璃基板	方向待明	57/57	-1.80%	—	—	-1.80%	-15.32%	+3.41%	+0.00%	22.81%	24.56%	1,306.9 亿	5.03%	10.00%	+0.83%	0	0	-31.37 亿	100.00%
酿酒	方向待明	31/30	-2.08%	-0.46%	-7.33%	-3.68%	+0.07%	-10.46%	-1.61%	3.33%	3.33%	106.1 亿	0.41%	5.00%	+0.56%	0	0	-9.92 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	方向待明	197/197	-2.14%	-0.07%	-9.67%	-2.14%	-0.12%	-10.19%	+0.00%	11.68%	16.75%	510.3 亿	1.96%	40.00%	+0.49%	1	1	-6.14 亿	100.00%
CPO	趋势转弱	212/212	-2.16%	-11.24%	+3.62%	-2.26%	-11.06%	+1.70%	-0.09%	22.17%	20.28%	5,118.1 亿	19.70%	5.00%	+0.47%	2	0	-116.1 亿	100.00%
PCB	趋势转弱	236/235	-2.30%	-10.17%	+6.30%	-2.36%	-10.21%	+3.52%	-0.05%	19.15%	17.87%	2,924.4 亿	11.25%	5.00%	+0.33%	2	1	-157.5 亿	99.58%
液冷服务器	趋势转弱	229/228	-2.42%	-5.26%	+2.72%	-2.41%	-5.24%	+1.64%	+0.02%	17.11%	28.07%	3,033.6 亿	11.67%	5.00%	+0.21%	0	1	-85.85 亿	100.00%
物理AI	方向待明	463/461	-2.68%	-1.21%	-1.39%	-2.67%	-1.38%	-2.66%	+0.01%	14.97%	31.02%	4,016.4 亿	15.46%	10.00%	-0.04%	1	4	-185.4 亿	99.57%
商业航天	趋势转弱	507/505	-2.71%	-5.54%	-2.76%	-2.69%	-5.51%	-3.46%	+0.03%	12.28%	19.21%	3,718.4 亿	14.31%	5.00%	-0.08%	4	2	-160.7 亿	99.80%
减速器	方向待明	139/139	-2.98%	+2.42%	-4.92%	-2.98%	+2.30%	-5.97%	-0.00%	11.51%	30.22%	776.4 亿	2.99%	35.00%	-0.34%	2	4	-39.83 亿	100.00%
创新药	高位分歧	281/280	-3.85%	+4.12%	+6.02%	-3.85%	+4.02%	+4.97%	+0.01%	5.00%	62.14%	1,051.7 亿	4.05%	75.00%	-1.22%	1	2	-66.79 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

先进封装 · 趋势转弱

领涨：沐曦股份（688802.SH）+14.09%、实益达（002137.SZ）+10.01%、有研新材（600206.SH）+10.00%

领跌：旭光电子（600353.SH）-10.00%、惠科股份（001399.SZ）-8.76%、鸿仕达（920125.BJ）-8.26%

存储芯片 · 趋势转弱

领涨：有研硅（688432.SH）+20.00%、正帆科技（688596.SH）+10.56%、有研新材（600206.SH）+10.00%

领跌：凯瑞德（002072.SZ）-9.34%、德明利（001309.SZ）-8.98%、君正股份（300223.SZ）-8.62%

电子化学品 · 趋势转弱

领涨：广钢气体（688548.SH）+6.52%、西陇科学（002584.SZ）+5.98%、中船特气（688146.SH）+4.36%

领跌：莱尔科技（688683.SH）-9.41%、江化微（603078.SH）-8.20%、方邦股份（688020.SH）-7.19%

金属新材料 · 趋势转弱

领涨：中科三环（000970.SZ）+6.29%、有研复材（688811.SH）+4.27%、宁波韵升（600366.SH）+2.48%

领跌：博威合金（601137.SH）-6.17%、有研粉材（688456.SH）-5.53%、悦安新材（688786.SH）-5.17%

光刻胶 · 趋势转弱

领涨：百合花（603823.SH）+10.01%、世名科技（300522.SZ）+7.64%、国恩股份（002768.SZ）+6.23%

领跌：吉和昌（920193.BJ）-11.81%、江化微（603078.SH）-8.20%、新亚强（603155.SH）-8.01%

玻璃基板 · 方向待明

领涨：戈碧迦（920438.BJ）+7.97%、长电科技（600584.SH）+6.20%、通富微电（002156.SZ）+3.07%

领跌：兴森科技（002436.SZ）-6.76%、亚玛顿（002623.SZ）-5.55%、凯格精机（301338.SZ）-5.49%

酿酒 · 方向待明

领涨：会稽山（601579.SH）+0.95%

领跌：*ST尼雅（600084.SH）-9.83%、*ST莫高（600543.SH）-7.35%、金种子酒（600199.SH）-5.90%

文化传媒 · 方向待明

领涨：星辉娱乐（300043.SZ）+14.13%、实益达（002137.SZ）+10.01%、浙富控股（002266.SZ）+8.70%

领跌：中国瑞林（603257.SH）-10.00%、线上线下（300959.SZ）-9.99%、*ST中岩（002542.SZ）-8.33%

CPO · 趋势转弱

领涨：威尔高（301251.SZ）+20.00%、华天科技（002185.SZ）+9.98%、泰金新能（688813.SH）+6.66%

领跌：金戈新材（920083.BJ）-13.85%、电连技术（300679.SZ）-9.21%、德明利（001309.SZ）-8.98%

PCB · 趋势转弱

领涨：威尔高（301251.SZ）+20.00%、天海电子（001365.SZ）+10.00%、世名科技（300522.SZ）+7.64%

领跌：吉和昌（920193.BJ）-11.81%、昊志机电（300503.SZ）-10.31%、杭电股份（603618.SH）-10.00%

液冷服务器 · 趋势转弱

领涨：东微半导（688261.SH）+16.33%、骄成超声（688392.SH）+7.81%、冠龙节能（301151.SZ）+7.55%

领跌：利通电子（603629.SH）-10.00%、佳力图（603912.SH）-8.74%、同星科技（301252.SZ）-8.63%

物理AI · 方向待明

领涨：东微半导（688261.SH）+16.33%、力王股份（920627.BJ）+12.61%、天海电子（001365.SZ）+10.00%

领跌：昊志机电（300503.SZ）-10.31%、慧辰股份（688500.SH）-10.04%、爱仕达（002403.SZ）-10.02%

商业航天 · 趋势转弱

领涨：先锋精科（688605.SH）+15.22%、和顺科技（301237.SZ）+14.63%、大名城（600094.SH）+10.03%

领跌：昊志机电（300503.SZ）-10.31%、震有科技（688418.SH）-10.28%、中天火箭（003009.SZ）-10.00%

减速器 · 方向待明

领涨：圣龙股份（603178.SH）+10.03%、多利科技（001311.SZ）+10.01%、巨轮智能（002031.SZ）+7.47%

领跌：昊志机电（300503.SZ）-10.31%、*ST春兴（002547.SZ）-10.16%、爱仕达（002403.SZ）-10.02%

创新药 · 高位分歧

领涨：ST海王（000078.SZ）+9.76%、亚虹医药（688176.SH）+7.11%、金城医药（300233.SZ）+3.28%

领跌：普蕊斯（301257.SZ）-10.93%、泽璟制药（688266.SH）-10.05%、上海谊众（688091.SH）-10.04%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

AI与半导体	123	+0.48%	-0.79%	-10.49%	+7.73%	534.1 亿	100.00%	68/28	嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF · +0.16%
大盘宽基	82	-1.31%	-0.98%	-2.87%	+1.84%	102.9 亿	100.00%	25/16	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · +1.62%
红利防御	92	-1.32%	-1.39%	+0.55%	-5.22%	60.90 亿	100.00%	46/12	华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF · -0.44%
中小盘宽基	138	-1.47%	-1.59%	-6.43%	+2.74%	275.6 亿	100.00%	47/15	易方达创业板ETF · +0.91%
消费	44	-1.58%	-1.66%	+0.43%	-2.45%	22.81 亿	100.00%	11/10	鹏华中证酒ETF · +1.28%
金融地产	47	-2.49%	-2.63%	+0.23%	+7.53%	97.07 亿	100.00%	26/11	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · +1.40%
资源周期	53	-2.84%	-2.84%	-2.54%	-0.45%	59.53 亿	100.00%	29/16	国泰中证煤炭ETF · +1.98%
医药健康	51	-4.58%	-3.85%	+1.88%	+10.55%	78.11 亿	100.00%	19/23	银华中证创新药产业ETF · -0.88%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

AI硬件与数字经济	电子、计算机、通信	997	-2.14%	-7.06%	+1.18%	21.87%	24.07%	43.30%	11	6
公用防御	环保、交通运输、公用事业	400	-2.34%	+0.56%	-8.04%	11.00%	18.75%	3.43%	1	2
金融地产	银行、非银金融、房地产	216	-2.36%	+1.26%	-3.93%	11.11%	29.63%	3.76%	3	3
高端制造	电力设备、汽车、机械设备、国防军工	1475	-2.65%	-1.78%	-5.73%	11.80%	22.03%	22.70%	8	16
大消费	农林牧渔、食品饮料、社会服务、商贸零售、家用电器	526	-2.78%	+1.37%	-6.78%	6.46%	20.34%	3.43%	0	3
基建链	建筑材料、建筑装饰	231	-2.81%	-1.73%	-7.34%	10.39%	18.18%	2.67%	1	6
资源周期	钢铁、有色金属、基础化工、煤炭、石油石化	713	-2.87%	-1.69%	-3.17%	12.20%	15.29%	12.19%	7	7
医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	533	-3.73%	+3.27%	+1.48%	5.44%	47.09%	5.31%	2	2

近五个交易日

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6

边际变化

成交额：收缩 · -16.51%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -21.44%

涨停家数：压缩 · -39

最高连板：持平 · 0

五日成交中位：3.2053 万亿 · 温度区间：17.7–70.6 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：创新药 4次、减速器 3次、文化传媒 2次、先进封装 1次、存储芯片 1次、液冷服务器 1次

行业：银行 2次、交通运输 1次、传媒 1次、农林牧渔 1次、医药生物 1次、国防军工 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日-16.5%，上涨覆盖12.6%，五日成交中位32052.6亿元。

方向承接 · 先进封装当日收益-0.86%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 电子涨停7家，最高1板。

负反馈 · 跌停50家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 32052.6亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 先进封装

确认：先进封装继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 8.2%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖12.6%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 5 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6

情绪九维 33.7

连板高度12.86
12.86
输入与公式
6 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数4.08
4.08
输入与公式
34 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率7.74
7.74
输入与公式
0.5483870967741935 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率3.29
3.29
输入与公式
0.0821917808219178 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价0
0
输入与公式
-0.023629136986301372 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":50,"largeLoss":253} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度1.88
1.88
输入与公式
0.12561174551386622 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比1.91
1.91
输入与公式
{"limitUp":34,"limitDown":50} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能1.92
1.92
输入与公式
0.7958631358482967 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	113	2.05%	+7.07%	+6.02%
趋势延续	127	2.30%	+1.75%	+1.52%
低位修复	289	5.24%	+1.89%	+1.16%
中间状态	4988	90.41%	-3.23%	-3.10%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 73 家 · 今日晋级 6 家 · 晋级率 8.22%

晋级名单

恒尚节能	603137.SH	建筑装饰	6	+9.98%
ST海王	000078.SZ	医药生物	5	+9.76%
宜宾纸业	600793.SH	轻工制造	5	+9.99%
万通发展	600246.SH	房地产	2	+9.99%
大恒科技	600288.SH	计算机	2	+9.97%
白云电器	603861.SH	电力设备	2	+9.99%
华天科技	002185.SZ	电子	1	+9.98%
有研新材	600206.SH	电子	1	+10.00%
TCL中环	002129.SZ	电力设备	1	+9.98%
有研硅	688432.SH	电子	1	+20.00%
华微电子	600360.SH	电子	1	+9.98%
百合花	603823.SH	基础化工	1	+10.01%
佛塑科技	000973.SZ	基础化工	1	+10.04%
宿迁联盛	603065.SH	基础化工	1	+9.99%
实益达	002137.SZ	电子	1	+10.01%
双星新材	002585.SZ	基础化工	1	+9.96%
雅化集团	002497.SZ	基础化工	1	+10.00%
中远通	301516.SZ	电力设备	1	+20.00%
天海电子	001365.SZ	汽车	1	+10.00%
声迅股份	003004.SZ	计算机	1	+10.00%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

近20个交易日

共 0 条假设

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:00:39.051635+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。