# 全景市场观测台周报｜2026-08-28

> 五个冻结交易日内，上涨覆盖变化+27.99%、MA20上方比例变化+16.53%、成交额首尾变化+4.78%；结论只描述状态迁移。

## 1. 上周判断验证

已结算 23 条；确认 7 条；未确认 4 条；证据不足 12 条；Research Error 16 条；到期未结算 0 条。

- **方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大** — CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：spread=0.002631999999999999、strongRelative=-0.016376298467087467、weakRelative=-0.019008298467087466、weakAdvanceShare=0.11071428571428571
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.6956521739130435、multiBoardCount=10、limitDownCount=14
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续** — NOT_CONFIRMED：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.26330027051397653、aboveMa20Share=0.4205590622182146、turnoverCny=2021215318551
- **MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续** — NOT_CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.016376298467087467、advanceShare=0.14285714285714285、medianReturn1d=-0.032633、amountShare=0.021404822010215586、membershipAsOf=2026-08-24
- **创新药相对弱势能否收敛** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.019008298467087466、advanceShare=0.11071428571428571、medianReturn1d=-0.032076、amountShare=0.05757863033372705、membershipAsOf=2026-08-24
- **方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大** — CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：spread=-0.022342、strongRelative=-0.014095315182113235、weakRelative=0.008246684817886766、weakAdvanceShare=0.8214285714285714
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.7142857142857143、multiBoardCount=8、limitDownCount=4
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.7634331049404977、aboveMa20Share=0.5308330328164443、turnoverCny=1844278181252
- **酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.014095315182113235、advanceShare=0.7333333333333333、medianReturn1d=0.010829、amountShare=0.004427055360422296、membershipAsOf=2026-08-25
- **创新药相对弱势能否收敛** — CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.008246684817886766、advanceShare=0.8214285714285714、medianReturn1d=0.020788、amountShare=0.05658793127055362、membershipAsOf=2026-08-25
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.6666666666666666、multiBoardCount=13、limitDownCount=2
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.5310978907517577、aboveMa20Share=0.5379484405985218、turnoverCny=1821814999754
- **创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.0008584333874166216、advanceShare=0.55、medianReturn1d=0.0021869999999999997、amountShare=0.05585188319835688、membershipAsOf=2026-08-26
- **电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.003985433387416621、advanceShare=0.37209302325581395、medianReturn1d=-0.0028510000000000002、amountShare=0.016997860028916185、membershipAsOf=2026-08-26
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调** — CONFIRMED：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.7878787878787878、multiBoardCount=16、limitDownCount=4
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.6118622678925545、aboveMa20Share=0.5801334054443843、turnoverCny=2140959919627
- **酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续** — NOT_CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.019277746890210924、advanceShare=0.2、medianReturn1d=-0.007555、amountShare=0.004579271276909324、membershipAsOf=2026-08-27
- **MLCC相对弱势能否收敛** — CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.029086253109789073、advanceShare=0.9714285714285714、medianReturn1d=0.037315999999999995、amountShare=0.02169417905920512、membershipAsOf=2026-08-27
- **方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大** — CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：spread=-0.009717999999999997、strongRelative=-0.016345239228411752、weakRelative=-0.006627239228411755、weakAdvanceShare=0.8333333333333334
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调** — CONFIRMED：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.7830188679245284、multiBoardCount=18、limitDownCount=3
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.5431764917973679、aboveMa20Share=0.5859022895258699、turnoverCny=2117732336241
- **电子化学品居前能否转化为内部扩散延续** — NOT_CONFIRMED：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.016345239228411752、advanceShare=0.23255813953488372、medianReturn1d=-0.015854999999999998、amountShare=0.020365565134998473、membershipAsOf=2026-08-28
- **酿酒相对弱势能否收敛** — INCONCLUSIVE：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.006627239228411755、advanceShare=0.8333333333333334、medianReturn1d=0.007891、amountShare=0.0038991926880791706、membershipAsOf=2026-08-28

## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事

- **市场广度｜扩张**：+27.99%。反证边界：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。
- **趋势存量｜改善**：+16.53%。反证边界：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。
- **市场量能｜扩张**：+4.78%。反证边界：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。

## 3. 持续、反复与转弱

- 持续居前方向：文化传媒（4/5）、酿酒（3/5）、创新药（2/5）
- 反复方向：减速器、液冷服务器、文化传媒、酿酒、金属新材料、CPO、MLCC、PCB
- 最新弱势方向：先进封装、电子化学品、存储芯片

## 4. Research Error

- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续**：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.26330027051397653、aboveMa20Share=0.4205590622182146、turnoverCny=2021215318551
- **MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续**：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.016376298467087467、advanceShare=0.14285714285714285、medianReturn1d=-0.032633、amountShare=0.021404822010215586、membershipAsOf=2026-08-24
- **酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续**：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.019277746890210924、advanceShare=0.2、medianReturn1d=-0.007555、amountShare=0.004579271276909324、membershipAsOf=2026-08-27
- **电子化学品居前能否转化为内部扩散延续**：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.016345239228411752、advanceShare=0.23255813953488372、medianReturn1d=-0.015854999999999998、amountShare=0.020365565134998473、membershipAsOf=2026-08-28
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调**：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.6956521739130435、multiBoardCount=10、limitDownCount=14
- **创新药相对弱势能否收敛**：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.019008298467087466、advanceShare=0.11071428571428571、medianReturn1d=-0.032076、amountShare=0.05757863033372705、membershipAsOf=2026-08-24
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调**：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.7142857142857143、multiBoardCount=8、limitDownCount=4
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续**：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.7634331049404977、aboveMa20Share=0.5308330328164443、turnoverCny=1844278181252
- **酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续**：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.014095315182113235、advanceShare=0.7333333333333333、medianReturn1d=0.010829、amountShare=0.004427055360422296、membershipAsOf=2026-08-25
- **封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调**：规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.6666666666666666、multiBoardCount=13、limitDownCount=2
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续**：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.5310978907517577、aboveMa20Share=0.5379484405985218、turnoverCny=1821814999754
- **创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续**：规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.0008584333874166216、advanceShare=0.55、medianReturn1d=0.0021869999999999997、amountShare=0.05585188319835688、membershipAsOf=2026-08-26
- **电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛**：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.003985433387416621、advanceShare=0.37209302325581395、medianReturn1d=-0.0028510000000000002、amountShare=0.016997860028916185、membershipAsOf=2026-08-26
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续**：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.6118622678925545、aboveMa20Share=0.5801334054443843、turnoverCny=2140959919627
- **广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续**：规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.5431764917973679、aboveMa20Share=0.5859022895258699、turnoverCny=2117732336241
- **酿酒相对弱势能否收敛**：规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.006627239228411755、advanceShare=0.8333333333333334、medianReturn1d=0.007891、amountShare=0.0038991926880791706、membershipAsOf=2026-08-28

## 5. 下周只验证三件事

1. **文化传媒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散**  
   确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄；失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。
2. **广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持**  
   确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善；失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。
3. **封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散**  
   确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调；失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。

## 6. 数据与方法健康

周报只使用五个不可变收盘快照和假设账本；不产生仓位、买卖或确定性预测。

快照哈希：`283c013e4e363fa7f83ca25f57ca217ef20225cdbd6ca58e17990a81b9757c84`

研究辅助，不构成投资建议。