{"date":"2026-09-30","title":"广度改善但趋势存量未同步","sentence":"五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化+12.13%、MA20上方比例变化-16.08%、成交额首尾变化-18.68%；结论只描述状态迁移。","settledCount":24,"researchErrorCount":9,"inconclusiveCount":6,"sessions":["2026-09-23","2026-09-24","2026-09-28","2026-09-29","2026-09-30"],"previousJudgmentVerification":{"settledCount":24,"confirmedCount":9,"notConfirmedCount":9,"inconclusiveCount":6,"unsettledDueCount":0,"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260922-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=62.2%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=15"},{"id":"HYP-20260922-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=34.0%、aboveMa20Share=48.4%、turnoverCny=17831.3亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260922-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-1.9%、advanceShare=13.2%、medianReturn1d=-2.0%、amountShare=3.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260922-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"MLCC相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-23收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.7%、advanceShare=71.4%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=2.3%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260923-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-24收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-2.4个百分点、strongRelative=-2.0%、weakRelative=0.4%、weakAdvanceShare=21.8%"},{"id":"HYP-20260923-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-24收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=79.1%、multiBoardCount=13、limitDownCount=16"},{"id":"HYP-20260923-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=39.3%、turnoverCny=16691.1亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260923-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.0%、advanceShare=7.0%、medianReturn1d=-3.4%、amountShare=3.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260923-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-24收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.4%、advanceShare=21.8%、medianReturn1d=-1.0%、amountShare=2.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260924-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：spread=7.4个百分点、strongRelative=6.0%、weakRelative=-1.3%、weakAdvanceShare=7.0%"},{"id":"HYP-20260924-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-28收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=70.0%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=60"},{"id":"HYP-20260924-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=16.2%、aboveMa20Share=26.2%、turnoverCny=17167.1亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260924-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-28收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=6.0%、advanceShare=23.3%、medianReturn1d=-0.9%、amountShare=0.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260924-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-28收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-1.3%、advanceShare=7.0%、medianReturn1d=-3.7%、amountShare=4.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260928-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-29收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-6.0个百分点、strongRelative=-5.3%、weakRelative=0.8%、weakAdvanceShare=67.0%"},{"id":"HYP-20260928-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-29收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=82.6%、multiBoardCount=10、limitDownCount=12"},{"id":"HYP-20260928-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-29收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=62.4%、aboveMa20Share=32.0%、turnoverCny=14216.0亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260928-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-29收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-5.3%、advanceShare=30.0%、medianReturn1d=-0.3%、amountShare=0.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260928-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"CPO相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-29收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.8%、advanceShare=67.0%、medianReturn1d=0.7%、amountShare=17.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260929-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-30收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-3.7个百分点、strongRelative=-0.5%、weakRelative=3.2%、weakAdvanceShare=86.7%"},{"id":"HYP-20260929-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-30收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=80.0%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=13"},{"id":"HYP-20260929-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-30收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=46.2%、aboveMa20Share=32.3%、turnoverCny=14500.8亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260929-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-30收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.5%、advanceShare=29.4%、medianReturn1d=-0.8%、amountShare=2.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260929-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-30收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=3.2%、advanceShare=86.7%、medianReturn1d=1.8%、amountShare=1.0%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"}]},"threeStructuralChanges":[{"name":"市场广度","change":0.12125485274970488,"judgment":"扩张","counter":"首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。"},{"name":"趋势存量","change":-0.1608379619506361,"judgment":"弱化","counter":"MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。"},{"name":"市场量能","change":-0.18677896354621126,"judgment":"收缩","counter":"量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。"}],"lifecycle":{"persistentDirections":[{"name":"减速器","top3Appearances":3},{"name":"酿酒","top3Appearances":3},{"name":"创新药","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"文化传媒","top3Appearances":2}],"oscillatingDirections":[{"name":"创新药","signChanges":4,"latestRelative":0.02545152886171552},{"name":"文化传媒","signChanges":4,"latestRelative":-0.0051194711382844815},{"name":"CPO","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.01970747113828448},{"name":"PCB","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.022604471138284482},{"name":"酿酒","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.03223752886171552}],"latestWeakDirections":["存储芯片","电子化学品","MLCC"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"windowDays":5},"researchErrors":{"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260922-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=62.2%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=15"},{"id":"HYP-20260922-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=34.0%、aboveMa20Share=48.4%、turnoverCny=17831.3亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260922-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-1.9%、advanceShare=13.2%、medianReturn1d=-2.0%、amountShare=3.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260923-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=39.3%、turnoverCny=16691.1亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260923-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.0%、advanceShare=7.0%、medianReturn1d=-3.4%、amountShare=3.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260924-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：spread=7.4个百分点、strongRelative=6.0%、weakRelative=-1.3%、weakAdvanceShare=7.0%"},{"id":"HYP-20260924-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=16.2%、aboveMa20Share=26.2%、turnoverCny=17167.1亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260928-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-29收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-5.3%、advanceShare=30.0%、medianReturn1d=-0.3%、amountShare=0.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260929-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-30收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.5%、advanceShare=29.4%、medianReturn1d=-0.8%、amountShare=2.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"}],"unsettledDue":[]},"nextWeekQuestions":[{"question":"酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散","confirm":"相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄","invalidate":"相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱"},{"question":"广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持","confirm":"上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善","invalidate":"指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落"},{"question":"封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散","confirm":"封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调","invalidate":"高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现"}],"dataAndMethodHealth":{"sessions":["2026-09-23","2026-09-24","2026-09-28","2026-09-29","2026-09-30"],"missing":[],"directionCoverageDays":5,"boundary":"研究辅助，不构成投资建议。"},"markdown":"# 广度改善但趋势存量未同步\n\n五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化+12.13%、MA20上方比例变化-16.08%、成交额首尾变化-18.68%；结论只描述状态迁移。\n\n## 1. 上周判断验证\n\n已结算24条：确认9、未确认9、证据不足6；到期未结算0。\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=62.2%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=15\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=34.0%、aboveMa20Share=48.4%、turnoverCny=17831.3亿元\n- 文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-1.9%、advanceShare=13.2%、medianReturn1d=-2.0%、amountShare=3.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- MLCC相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-23收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.7%、advanceShare=71.4%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=2.3%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-24收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-2.4个百分点、strongRelative=-2.0%、weakRelative=0.4%、weakAdvanceShare=21.8%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-24收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=79.1%、multiBoardCount=13、limitDownCount=16\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=39.3%、turnoverCny=16691.1亿元\n- 玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.0%、advanceShare=7.0%、medianReturn1d=-3.4%、amountShare=3.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-24收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.4%、advanceShare=21.8%、medianReturn1d=-1.0%、amountShare=2.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：spread=7.4个百分点、strongRelative=6.0%、weakRelative=-1.3%、weakAdvanceShare=7.0%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-28收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=70.0%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=60\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=16.2%、aboveMa20Share=26.2%、turnoverCny=17167.1亿元\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-28收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=6.0%、advanceShare=23.3%、medianReturn1d=-0.9%、amountShare=0.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-28收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-1.3%、advanceShare=7.0%、medianReturn1d=-3.7%、amountShare=4.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-29收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-6.0个百分点、strongRelative=-5.3%、weakRelative=0.8%、weakAdvanceShare=67.0%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-29收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=82.6%、multiBoardCount=10、limitDownCount=12\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-29收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=62.4%、aboveMa20Share=32.0%、turnoverCny=14216.0亿元\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-29收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-5.3%、advanceShare=30.0%、medianReturn1d=-0.3%、amountShare=0.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- CPO相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-29收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.8%、advanceShare=67.0%、medianReturn1d=0.7%、amountShare=17.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-30收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-3.7个百分点、strongRelative=-0.5%、weakRelative=3.2%、weakAdvanceShare=86.7%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-30收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=80.0%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=13\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-30收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=46.2%、aboveMa20Share=32.3%、turnoverCny=14500.8亿元\n- 文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-30收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.5%、advanceShare=29.4%、medianReturn1d=-0.8%、amountShare=2.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 酿酒相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-30收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=3.2%、advanceShare=86.7%、medianReturn1d=1.8%、amountShare=1.0%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n\n## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事\n\n- 市场广度：扩张（+12.13%）。反证：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。\n- 趋势存量：弱化（-16.08%）。反证：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。\n- 市场量能：收缩（-18.68%）。反证：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。\n\n## 3. 持续、反复与转弱\n\n方向数据覆盖5/5。\n- 持续居前：减速器，前3出现3次。\n- 持续居前：酿酒，前3出现3次。\n- 持续居前：创新药，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：文化传媒，前3出现2次。\n- 反复方向：创新药，正负切换4次，最新相对收益+2.55%。\n- 反复方向：文化传媒，正负切换4次，最新相对收益-0.51%。\n- 反复方向：CPO，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-1.97%。\n- 反复方向：PCB，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-2.26%。\n- 反复方向：酿酒，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+3.22%。\n最新弱势方向：存储芯片、电子化学品、MLCC\n\n## 4. Research Error\n\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：未确认。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=62.2%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=15\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=34.0%、aboveMa20Share=48.4%、turnoverCny=17831.3亿元\n- 文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-23收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-1.9%、advanceShare=13.2%、medianReturn1d=-2.0%、amountShare=3.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=39.3%、turnoverCny=16691.1亿元\n- 玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-24收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.0%、advanceShare=7.0%、medianReturn1d=-3.4%、amountShare=3.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：未确认。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：spread=7.4个百分点、strongRelative=6.0%、weakRelative=-1.3%、weakAdvanceShare=7.0%\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-28收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=16.2%、aboveMa20Share=26.2%、turnoverCny=17167.1亿元\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-29收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-5.3%、advanceShare=30.0%、medianReturn1d=-0.3%、amountShare=0.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-30收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.5%、advanceShare=29.4%、medianReturn1d=-0.8%、amountShare=2.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n\n## 5. 下周只验证三件事\n\n- 酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散。\n  确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄。\n  失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。\n- 广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持。\n  确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善。\n  失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。\n- 封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散。\n  确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调。\n  失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。\n\n## 6. 数据说明\n\n使用交易日：2026-09-23、2026-09-24、2026-09-28、2026-09-29、2026-09-30。\n缺项：无。\n研究辅助，不构成投资建议。\n"}