{"date":"2026-09-18","title":"广度与趋势存量同步改善","sentence":"五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化+19.92%、MA20上方比例变化+9.48%、成交额首尾变化+27.38%；结论只描述状态迁移。","settledCount":24,"researchErrorCount":3,"inconclusiveCount":11,"sessions":["2026-09-14","2026-09-15","2026-09-16","2026-09-17","2026-09-18"],"previousJudgmentVerification":{"settledCount":24,"confirmedCount":10,"notConfirmedCount":3,"inconclusiveCount":11,"unsettledDueCount":0,"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260911-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-14收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=3.1个百分点、strongRelative=2.6%、weakRelative=-0.5%、weakAdvanceShare=40.0%"},{"id":"HYP-20260911-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-14收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=59.4%、multiBoardCount=11、limitDownCount=18"},{"id":"HYP-20260911-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-14收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=56.3%、aboveMa20Share=28.1%、turnoverCny=16429.8亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260911-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-14收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.6%、advanceShare=94.3%、medianReturn1d=2.4%、amountShare=3.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260911-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-14收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.5%、advanceShare=40.0%、medianReturn1d=-0.1%、amountShare=0.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260914-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-15收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：spread=3.2个百分点、strongRelative=2.4%、weakRelative=-0.8%、weakAdvanceShare=10.2%"},{"id":"HYP-20260914-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.1%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=34"},{"id":"HYP-20260914-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=20.6%、turnoverCny=16252.5亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260914-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-15收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.4%、advanceShare=42.9%、medianReturn1d=-0.4%、amountShare=3.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260914-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-15收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.8%、advanceShare=10.2%、medianReturn1d=-2.2%、amountShare=2.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260915-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=2.6个百分点、strongRelative=2.3%、weakRelative=-0.4%、weakAdvanceShare=75.0%"},{"id":"HYP-20260915-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=86.7%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=4"},{"id":"HYP-20260915-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-16收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=75.1%、aboveMa20Share=26.8%、turnoverCny=18525.0亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260915-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"电子化学品居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.3%、advanceShare=95.3%、medianReturn1d=3.5%、amountShare=2.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260915-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.4%、advanceShare=75.0%、medianReturn1d=0.7%、amountShare=2.3%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260916-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-17收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=0.3个百分点、strongRelative=1.0%、weakRelative=0.7%、weakAdvanceShare=73.6%"},{"id":"HYP-20260916-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-17收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=68.5%、multiBoardCount=9、limitDownCount=2"},{"id":"HYP-20260916-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-17收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=46.4%、aboveMa20Share=27.1%、turnoverCny=18365.1亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260916-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-17收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.0%、advanceShare=43.3%、medianReturn1d=-0.3%、amountShare=0.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260916-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"创新药相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-17收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.7%、advanceShare=73.6%、medianReturn1d=0.7%、amountShare=3.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260917-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-18收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=74.8%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=1"},{"id":"HYP-20260917-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-18收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=76.2%、aboveMa20Share=37.6%、turnoverCny=20929.1亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260917-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-18收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.8%、advanceShare=80.0%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=0.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260917-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"MLCC相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-18收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.8%、advanceShare=82.9%、medianReturn1d=2.3%、amountShare=2.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"}]},"threeStructuralChanges":[{"name":"市场广度","change":0.19922749329556455,"judgment":"扩张","counter":"首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。"},{"name":"趋势存量","change":0.09475189938723161,"judgment":"改善","counter":"MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。"},{"name":"市场量能","change":0.27384752150056624,"judgment":"扩张","counter":"量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。"}],"lifecycle":{"persistentDirections":[{"name":"酿酒","top3Appearances":4},{"name":"存储芯片","top3Appearances":2}],"oscillatingDirections":[{"name":"减速器","signChanges":4,"latestRelative":-0.00164563010985053},{"name":"创新药","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.00291863010985053},{"name":"商业航天","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.005363369890149471},{"name":"CPO","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.00941436989014947},{"name":"MLCC","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.00822736989014947},{"name":"PCB","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.0027513698901494715},{"name":"先进封装","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.013859369890149471},{"name":"光刻胶","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.00614236989014947}],"latestWeakDirections":["文化传媒","创新药","减速器"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"windowDays":5},"researchErrors":{"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260911-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-14收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=59.4%、multiBoardCount=11、limitDownCount=18"},{"id":"HYP-20260914-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.1%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=34"},{"id":"HYP-20260914-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=20.6%、turnoverCny=16252.5亿元"}],"unsettledDue":[]},"nextWeekQuestions":[{"question":"酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散","confirm":"相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄","invalidate":"相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱"},{"question":"广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持","confirm":"上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善","invalidate":"指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落"},{"question":"封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散","confirm":"封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调","invalidate":"高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现"}],"dataAndMethodHealth":{"sessions":["2026-09-14","2026-09-15","2026-09-16","2026-09-17","2026-09-18"],"missing":[],"directionCoverageDays":5,"boundary":"研究辅助，不构成投资建议。"},"markdown":"# 广度与趋势存量同步改善\n\n五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化+19.92%、MA20上方比例变化+9.48%、成交额首尾变化+27.38%；结论只描述状态迁移。\n\n## 1. 上周判断验证\n\n已结算24条：确认10、未确认3、证据不足11；到期未结算0。\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-14收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=3.1个百分点、strongRelative=2.6%、weakRelative=-0.5%、weakAdvanceShare=40.0%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-14收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=59.4%、multiBoardCount=11、limitDownCount=18\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-14收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=56.3%、aboveMa20Share=28.1%、turnoverCny=16429.8亿元\n- MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-14收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.6%、advanceShare=94.3%、medianReturn1d=2.4%、amountShare=3.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 酿酒相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-14收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.5%、advanceShare=40.0%、medianReturn1d=-0.1%、amountShare=0.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-15收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：spread=3.2个百分点、strongRelative=2.4%、weakRelative=-0.8%、weakAdvanceShare=10.2%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.1%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=34\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=20.6%、turnoverCny=16252.5亿元\n- MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-15收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.4%、advanceShare=42.9%、medianReturn1d=-0.4%、amountShare=3.1%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-15收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.8%、advanceShare=10.2%、medianReturn1d=-2.2%、amountShare=2.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=2.6个百分点、strongRelative=2.3%、weakRelative=-0.4%、weakAdvanceShare=75.0%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=86.7%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=4\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-16收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=75.1%、aboveMa20Share=26.8%、turnoverCny=18525.0亿元\n- 电子化学品居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.3%、advanceShare=95.3%、medianReturn1d=3.5%、amountShare=2.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-16收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.4%、advanceShare=75.0%、medianReturn1d=0.7%、amountShare=2.3%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-17收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=0.3个百分点、strongRelative=1.0%、weakRelative=0.7%、weakAdvanceShare=73.6%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-17收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=68.5%、multiBoardCount=9、limitDownCount=2\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-17收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=46.4%、aboveMa20Share=27.1%、turnoverCny=18365.1亿元\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-17收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.0%、advanceShare=43.3%、medianReturn1d=-0.3%、amountShare=0.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 创新药相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-17收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.7%、advanceShare=73.6%、medianReturn1d=0.7%、amountShare=3.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-18收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=74.8%、multiBoardCount=12、limitDownCount=1\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-18收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=76.2%、aboveMa20Share=37.6%、turnoverCny=20929.1亿元\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-18收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.8%、advanceShare=80.0%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=0.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- MLCC相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-18收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.8%、advanceShare=82.9%、medianReturn1d=2.3%、amountShare=2.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n\n## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事\n\n- 市场广度：扩张（+19.92%）。反证：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。\n- 趋势存量：改善（+9.48%）。反证：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。\n- 市场量能：扩张（+27.38%）。反证：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。\n\n## 3. 持续、反复与转弱\n\n方向数据覆盖5/5。\n- 持续居前：酿酒，前3出现4次。\n- 持续居前：存储芯片，前3出现2次。\n- 反复方向：减速器，正负切换4次，最新相对收益-0.16%。\n- 反复方向：创新药，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-0.29%。\n- 反复方向：商业航天，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+0.54%。\n- 反复方向：CPO，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.94%。\n- 反复方向：MLCC，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.82%。\n- 反复方向：PCB，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.28%。\n- 反复方向：先进封装，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+1.39%。\n- 反复方向：光刻胶，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.61%。\n最新弱势方向：文化传媒、创新药、减速器\n\n## 4. Research Error\n\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：未确认。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-14收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=59.4%、multiBoardCount=11、limitDownCount=18\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：未确认。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.1%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=34\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-15收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=20.2%、aboveMa20Share=20.6%、turnoverCny=16252.5亿元\n\n## 5. 下周只验证三件事\n\n- 酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散。\n  确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄。\n  失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。\n- 广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持。\n  确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善。\n  失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。\n- 封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散。\n  确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调。\n  失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。\n\n## 6. 数据说明\n\n使用交易日：2026-09-14、2026-09-15、2026-09-16、2026-09-17、2026-09-18。\n缺项：无。\n研究辅助，不构成投资建议。\n"}