{"date":"2026-09-04","title":"广度回落，结构持续性接受检验","sentence":"五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-13.32%、MA20上方比例变化-11.35%、成交额首尾变化-4.40%；结论只描述状态迁移。","settledCount":22,"researchErrorCount":6,"inconclusiveCount":4,"sessions":["2026-08-31","2026-09-01","2026-09-02","2026-09-03","2026-09-04"],"previousJudgmentVerification":{"settledCount":22,"confirmedCount":12,"notConfirmedCount":6,"inconclusiveCount":4,"unsettledDueCount":0,"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260828-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-08-31收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=71.2%、multiBoardCount=18、limitDownCount=13"},{"id":"HYP-20260828-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-31收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=57.4%、aboveMa20Share=61.5%、turnoverCny=21453.6亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260828-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-31收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.5%、advanceShare=80.7%、medianReturn1d=2.5%、amountShare=3.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260828-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"存储芯片相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-08-31收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.2%、advanceShare=80.0%、medianReturn1d=1.7%、amountShare=14.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260831-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=1.2个百分点、strongRelative=1.6%、weakRelative=0.4%、weakAdvanceShare=72.9%"},{"id":"HYP-20260831-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=86.0%、multiBoardCount=18、limitDownCount=0"},{"id":"HYP-20260831-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=61.1%、aboveMa20Share=63.9%、turnoverCny=20519.5亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260831-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.6%、advanceShare=82.2%、medianReturn1d=1.6%、amountShare=4.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260831-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"创新药相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.4%、advanceShare=72.9%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=3.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260901-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-02收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=0.4个百分点、strongRelative=-0.4%、weakRelative=-0.8%、weakAdvanceShare=14.0%"},{"id":"HYP-20260901-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-02收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=72.4%、multiBoardCount=15、limitDownCount=9"},{"id":"HYP-20260901-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=27.8%、aboveMa20Share=57.3%、turnoverCny=18203.0亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260901-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.4%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.2%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260901-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-02收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.8%、advanceShare=14.0%、medianReturn1d=-1.7%、amountShare=1.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260902-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.8%、multiBoardCount=9、limitDownCount=17"},{"id":"HYP-20260902-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=33.3%、aboveMa20Share=51.1%、turnoverCny=17802.4亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260902-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-03收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.2%、advanceShare=66.4%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=12.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260902-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"MLCC相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-03收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.7%、advanceShare=51.4%、medianReturn1d=0.6%、amountShare=1.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260903-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=45.7%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=9"},{"id":"HYP-20260903-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-04收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=44.1%、aboveMa20Share=50.1%、turnoverCny=20510.5亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260903-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.3%、advanceShare=17.5%、medianReturn1d=-2.3%、amountShare=12.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260903-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-04收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.0%、advanceShare=76.6%、medianReturn1d=1.5%、amountShare=4.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"}]},"threeStructuralChanges":[{"name":"市场广度","change":-0.13315086696446393,"judgment":"收窄","counter":"首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。"},{"name":"趋势存量","change":-0.11352638145136185,"judgment":"弱化","counter":"MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。"},{"name":"市场量能","change":-0.0439589349967312,"judgment":"收缩","counter":"量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。"}],"lifecycle":{"persistentDirections":[{"name":"文化传媒","top3Appearances":3},{"name":"液冷服务器","top3Appearances":3},{"name":"减速器","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"创新药","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"酿酒","top3Appearances":2}],"oscillatingDirections":[{"name":"创新药","signChanges":4,"latestRelative":-0.002055580930064888},{"name":"CPO","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.02449558093006489},{"name":"MLCC","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.028723580930064888},{"name":"PCB","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.022769580930064887},{"name":"先进封装","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.02278858093006489},{"name":"减速器","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.010282580930064887},{"name":"商业航天","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.004759580930064887},{"name":"存储芯片","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.027678580930064887}],"latestWeakDirections":["电子化学品","MLCC","存储芯片"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"windowDays":5},"researchErrors":{"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260901-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=27.8%、aboveMa20Share=57.3%、turnoverCny=18203.0亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260901-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.4%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.2%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260902-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.8%、multiBoardCount=9、limitDownCount=17"},{"id":"HYP-20260902-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=33.3%、aboveMa20Share=51.1%、turnoverCny=17802.4亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260903-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=45.7%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=9"},{"id":"HYP-20260903-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.3%、advanceShare=17.5%、medianReturn1d=-2.3%、amountShare=12.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"}],"unsettledDue":[]},"nextWeekQuestions":[{"question":"酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散","confirm":"相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄","invalidate":"相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱"},{"question":"广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持","confirm":"上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善","invalidate":"指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落"},{"question":"封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散","confirm":"封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调","invalidate":"高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现"}],"dataAndMethodHealth":{"sessions":["2026-08-31","2026-09-01","2026-09-02","2026-09-03","2026-09-04"],"missing":[],"directionCoverageDays":5,"boundary":"研究辅助，不构成投资建议。"},"markdown":"# 广度回落，结构持续性接受检验\n\n五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-13.32%、MA20上方比例变化-11.35%、成交额首尾变化-4.40%；结论只描述状态迁移。\n\n## 1. 上周判断验证\n\n已结算22条：确认12、未确认6、证据不足4；到期未结算0。\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-08-31收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=71.2%、multiBoardCount=18、limitDownCount=13\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-31收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=57.4%、aboveMa20Share=61.5%、turnoverCny=21453.6亿元\n- 文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-31收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.5%、advanceShare=80.7%、medianReturn1d=2.5%、amountShare=3.6%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 存储芯片相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-08-31收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.2%、advanceShare=80.0%、medianReturn1d=1.7%、amountShare=14.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=1.2个百分点、strongRelative=1.6%、weakRelative=0.4%、weakAdvanceShare=72.9%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=86.0%、multiBoardCount=18、limitDownCount=0\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=61.1%、aboveMa20Share=63.9%、turnoverCny=20519.5亿元\n- 文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=1.6%、advanceShare=82.2%、medianReturn1d=1.6%、amountShare=4.4%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 创新药相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-01收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.4%、advanceShare=72.9%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=3.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-09-02收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=0.4个百分点、strongRelative=-0.4%、weakRelative=-0.8%、weakAdvanceShare=14.0%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-02收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=72.4%、multiBoardCount=15、limitDownCount=9\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=27.8%、aboveMa20Share=57.3%、turnoverCny=18203.0亿元\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.4%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.2%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-02收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.8%、advanceShare=14.0%、medianReturn1d=-1.7%、amountShare=1.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.8%、multiBoardCount=9、limitDownCount=17\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=33.3%、aboveMa20Share=51.1%、turnoverCny=17802.4亿元\n- 液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-03收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.2%、advanceShare=66.4%、medianReturn1d=0.9%、amountShare=12.8%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- MLCC相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-03收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=0.7%、advanceShare=51.4%、medianReturn1d=0.6%、amountShare=1.7%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=45.7%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=9\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-04收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：advanceShare=44.1%、aboveMa20Share=50.1%、turnoverCny=20510.5亿元\n- 液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.3%、advanceShare=17.5%、medianReturn1d=-2.3%、amountShare=12.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-09-04收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=2.0%、advanceShare=76.6%、medianReturn1d=1.5%、amountShare=4.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n\n## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事\n\n- 市场广度：收窄（-13.32%）。反证：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。\n- 趋势存量：弱化（-11.35%）。反证：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。\n- 市场量能：收缩（-4.40%）。反证：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。\n\n## 3. 持续、反复与转弱\n\n方向数据覆盖5/5。\n- 持续居前：文化传媒，前3出现3次。\n- 持续居前：液冷服务器，前3出现3次。\n- 持续居前：减速器，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：创新药，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：酿酒，前3出现2次。\n- 反复方向：创新药，正负切换4次，最新相对收益-0.21%。\n- 反复方向：CPO，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-2.45%。\n- 反复方向：MLCC，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-2.87%。\n- 反复方向：PCB，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-2.28%。\n- 反复方向：先进封装，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-2.28%。\n- 反复方向：减速器，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-1.03%。\n- 反复方向：商业航天，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-0.48%。\n- 反复方向：存储芯片，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-2.77%。\n最新弱势方向：电子化学品、MLCC、存储芯片\n\n## 4. Research Error\n\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=27.8%、aboveMa20Share=57.3%、turnoverCny=18203.0亿元\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-02收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.4%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.2%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：未确认。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=56.8%、multiBoardCount=9、limitDownCount=17\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-03收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=33.3%、aboveMa20Share=51.1%、turnoverCny=17802.4亿元\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：未确认。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：sealRate=45.7%、multiBoardCount=7、limitDownCount=9\n- 液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-09-04收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-2.3%、advanceShare=17.5%、medianReturn1d=-2.3%、amountShare=12.2%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n\n## 5. 下周只验证三件事\n\n- 酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散。\n  确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄。\n  失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。\n- 广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持。\n  确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善。\n  失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。\n- 封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散。\n  确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调。\n  失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。\n\n## 6. 数据说明\n\n使用交易日：2026-08-31、2026-09-01、2026-09-02、2026-09-03、2026-09-04。\n缺项：无。\n研究辅助，不构成投资建议。\n"}