{"date":"2026-08-21","title":"广度回落，结构持续性接受检验","sentence":"五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-33.07%、MA20上方比例变化-30.44%、成交额首尾变化-21.24%；结论只描述状态迁移。","settledCount":18,"researchErrorCount":6,"inconclusiveCount":8,"sessions":["2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21"],"previousJudgmentVerification":{"settledCount":18,"confirmedCount":4,"notConfirmedCount":6,"inconclusiveCount":8,"unsettledDueCount":0,"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260817-BREADTH-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度与量能共振能否延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.3828519855595668、aboveMa20Share=0.8095667870036101、turnoverCny=2419778578490"},{"id":"HYP-20260817-ELECTRONIC-CHEMICAL-SPREAD","title":"电子化学品强势能否扩散而非单日脉冲","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.004034162475862647、advanceShare=0.4418604651162791、medianReturn1d=-0.005076000000000001、amountShare=0.028181752914044594、membershipAsOf=2026-08-18"},{"id":"HYP-20260817-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"高封板率与多板梯队能否保持稳定","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.7297297297297297、multiBoardCount=19、limitDownCount=6"},{"id":"HYP-20260817-LIQUOR-WEAKNESS","title":"白酒逆势偏弱是否开始收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.0026340314681107097、advanceShare=0.5333333333333333、medianReturn1d=0.0005475、amountShare=0.005188337583324185、membershipAsOf=2026-08-18"},{"id":"HYP-20260818-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.7037037037037037、multiBoardCount=8、limitDownCount=130"},{"id":"HYP-20260818-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.08103230463815196、aboveMa20Share=0.5002707092582567、turnoverCny=2530010568957"},{"id":"HYP-20260818-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.033968076881429346、advanceShare=0.017543859649122806、medianReturn1d=-0.079758、amountShare=0.0422544039096562、membershipAsOf=2026-08-19"},{"id":"HYP-20260818-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.004548923118570657、advanceShare=0.0663265306122449、medianReturn1d=-0.036012、amountShare=0.018808627281911117、membershipAsOf=2026-08-19"},{"id":"HYP-20260819-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：spread=0.013231、strongRelative=-0.0019147276664861958、weakRelative=-0.015145727666486196、weakAdvanceShare=0.5142857142857142"},{"id":"HYP-20260819-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.6086956521739131、multiBoardCount=5、limitDownCount=13"},{"id":"HYP-20260819-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.7392167478794441、aboveMa20Share=0.5859953077061902、turnoverCny=2093909021307"},{"id":"HYP-20260819-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.0019147276664861958、advanceShare=0.8333333333333334、medianReturn1d=0.010297、amountShare=0.004183140121199275、membershipAsOf=2026-08-20"},{"id":"HYP-20260819-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"MLCC相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.015145727666486196、advanceShare=0.5142857142857142、medianReturn1d=0.001109、amountShare=0.0228902090778542、membershipAsOf=2026-08-20"},{"id":"HYP-20260820-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：spread=-0.039386000000000004、strongRelative=-0.03634509597690781、weakRelative=0.0030409040230921884、weakAdvanceShare=0.5813953488372093"},{"id":"HYP-20260820-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.7435897435897436、multiBoardCount=13、limitDownCount=15"},{"id":"HYP-20260820-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.4519213422334476、aboveMa20Share=0.535089301822118、turnoverCny=1892255839011"},{"id":"HYP-20260820-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.03634509597690781、advanceShare=0.05357142857142857、medianReturn1d=-0.0397915、amountShare=0.07771714219021175、membershipAsOf=2026-08-21"},{"id":"HYP-20260820-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.0030409040230921884、advanceShare=0.5813953488372093、medianReturn1d=0.0034289999999999998、amountShare=0.022348808461078746、membershipAsOf=2026-08-21"}]},"threeStructuralChanges":[{"name":"市场广度","change":-0.3307109018539328,"judgment":"收窄","counter":"首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。"},{"name":"趋势存量","change":-0.3044124132889129,"judgment":"弱化","counter":"MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。"},{"name":"市场量能","change":-0.21238433267246604,"judgment":"收缩","counter":"量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。"}],"lifecycle":{"persistentDirections":[{"name":"CPO","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"创新药","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"文化传媒","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"玻璃基板","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"酿酒","top3Appearances":2}],"oscillatingDirections":[{"name":"CPO","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.014920904023092188},{"name":"MLCC","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.01879390402309219},{"name":"PCB","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.012861904023092187},{"name":"先进封装","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.007383904023092189},{"name":"减速器","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.007810904023092188},{"name":"创新药","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":-0.03634509597690781},{"name":"商业航天","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.006756904023092188},{"name":"存储芯片","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.006298904023092189}],"latestWeakDirections":["创新药","酿酒","文化传媒"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"windowDays":5},"researchErrors":{"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260817-BREADTH-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度与量能共振能否延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.3828519855595668、aboveMa20Share=0.8095667870036101、turnoverCny=2419778578490"},{"id":"HYP-20260818-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.7037037037037037、multiBoardCount=8、limitDownCount=130"},{"id":"HYP-20260818-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.08103230463815196、aboveMa20Share=0.5002707092582567、turnoverCny=2530010568957"},{"id":"HYP-20260818-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.033968076881429346、advanceShare=0.017543859649122806、medianReturn1d=-0.079758、amountShare=0.0422544039096562、membershipAsOf=2026-08-19"},{"id":"HYP-20260819-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.6086956521739131、multiBoardCount=5、limitDownCount=13"},{"id":"HYP-20260820-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.03634509597690781、advanceShare=0.05357142857142857、medianReturn1d=-0.0397915、amountShare=0.07771714219021175、membershipAsOf=2026-08-21"}],"unsettledDue":[]},"nextWeekQuestions":[{"question":"MLCC能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散","confirm":"相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄","invalidate":"相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱"},{"question":"广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持","confirm":"上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善","invalidate":"指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落"},{"question":"封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散","confirm":"封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调","invalidate":"高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现"}],"dataAndMethodHealth":{"sessions":["2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21"],"missing":[],"directionCoverageDays":5,"boundary":"研究辅助，不构成投资建议。"},"markdown":"# 广度回落，结构持续性接受检验\n\n五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-33.07%、MA20上方比例变化-30.44%、成交额首尾变化-21.24%；结论只描述状态迁移。\n\n## 1. 上周判断验证\n\n已结算18条：确认4、未确认6、证据不足8；到期未结算0。\n- 广度与量能共振能否延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.3828519855595668、aboveMa20Share=0.8095667870036101、turnoverCny=2419778578490\n- 电子化学品强势能否扩散而非单日脉冲：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.004034162475862647、advanceShare=0.4418604651162791、medianReturn1d=-0.005076000000000001、amountShare=0.028181752914044594、membershipAsOf=2026-08-18\n- 高封板率与多板梯队能否保持稳定：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.7297297297297297、multiBoardCount=19、limitDownCount=6\n- 白酒逆势偏弱是否开始收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.0026340314681107097、advanceShare=0.5333333333333333、medianReturn1d=0.0005475、amountShare=0.005188337583324185、membershipAsOf=2026-08-18\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.7037037037037037、multiBoardCount=8、limitDownCount=130\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.08103230463815196、aboveMa20Share=0.5002707092582567、turnoverCny=2530010568957\n- 玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.033968076881429346、advanceShare=0.017543859649122806、medianReturn1d=-0.079758、amountShare=0.0422544039096562、membershipAsOf=2026-08-19\n- 文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.004548923118570657、advanceShare=0.0663265306122449、medianReturn1d=-0.036012、amountShare=0.018808627281911117、membershipAsOf=2026-08-19\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：spread=0.013231、strongRelative=-0.0019147276664861958、weakRelative=-0.015145727666486196、weakAdvanceShare=0.5142857142857142\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.6086956521739131、multiBoardCount=5、limitDownCount=13\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.7392167478794441、aboveMa20Share=0.5859953077061902、turnoverCny=2093909021307\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.0019147276664861958、advanceShare=0.8333333333333334、medianReturn1d=0.010297、amountShare=0.004183140121199275、membershipAsOf=2026-08-20\n- MLCC相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.015145727666486196、advanceShare=0.5142857142857142、medianReturn1d=0.001109、amountShare=0.0228902090778542、membershipAsOf=2026-08-20\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：spread=-0.039386000000000004、strongRelative=-0.03634509597690781、weakRelative=0.0030409040230921884、weakAdvanceShare=0.5813953488372093\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：sealRate=0.7435897435897436、multiBoardCount=13、limitDownCount=15\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：INCONCLUSIVE。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际输入：advanceShare=0.4519213422334476、aboveMa20Share=0.535089301822118、turnoverCny=1892255839011\n- 创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.03634509597690781、advanceShare=0.05357142857142857、medianReturn1d=-0.0397915、amountShare=0.07771714219021175、membershipAsOf=2026-08-21\n- 电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按到期快照结算为CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=0.0030409040230921884、advanceShare=0.5813953488372093、medianReturn1d=0.0034289999999999998、amountShare=0.022348808461078746、membershipAsOf=2026-08-21\n\n## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事\n\n- 市场广度：收窄（-33.07%）。反证：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。\n- 趋势存量：弱化（-30.44%）。反证：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。\n- 市场量能：收缩（-21.24%）。反证：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。\n\n## 3. 持续、反复与转弱\n\n方向数据覆盖5/5。\n- 持续居前：CPO，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：创新药，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：文化传媒，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：玻璃基板，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：酿酒，前3出现2次。\n- 反复方向：CPO，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+1.49%。\n- 反复方向：MLCC，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+1.88%。\n- 反复方向：PCB，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+1.29%。\n- 反复方向：先进封装，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.74%。\n- 反复方向：减速器，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.78%。\n- 反复方向：创新药，正负切换2次，最新相对收益-3.63%。\n- 反复方向：商业航天，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.68%。\n- 反复方向：存储芯片，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.63%。\n最新弱势方向：创新药、酿酒、文化传媒\n\n## 4. Research Error\n\n- 广度与量能共振能否延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.3828519855595668、aboveMa20Share=0.8095667870036101、turnoverCny=2419778578490\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：未确认。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.7037037037037037、multiBoardCount=8、limitDownCount=130\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：advanceShare=0.08103230463815196、aboveMa20Share=0.5002707092582567、turnoverCny=2530010568957\n- 玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.033968076881429346、advanceShare=0.017543859649122806、medianReturn1d=-0.079758、amountShare=0.0422544039096562、membershipAsOf=2026-08-19\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：未确认。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：sealRate=0.6086956521739131、multiBoardCount=5、limitDownCount=13\n- 创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按到期快照结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际输入：relativeVsAllA=-0.03634509597690781、advanceShare=0.05357142857142857、medianReturn1d=-0.0397915、amountShare=0.07771714219021175、membershipAsOf=2026-08-21\n\n## 5. 下周只验证三件事\n\n- MLCC能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散。\n  确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄。\n  失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。\n- 广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持。\n  确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善。\n  失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。\n- 封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散。\n  确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调。\n  失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。\n\n## 6. 数据说明\n\n使用交易日：2026-08-17、2026-08-18、2026-08-19、2026-08-20、2026-08-21。\n缺项：无。\n研究辅助，不构成投资建议。\n"}