{"date":"2026-08-14","title":"广度回落，结构持续性接受检验","sentence":"五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-30.13%、MA20上方比例变化-9.20%、成交额首尾变化-15.05%；结论只描述状态迁移。","settledCount":16,"researchErrorCount":6,"inconclusiveCount":5,"sessions":["2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14"],"previousJudgmentVerification":{"settledCount":16,"confirmedCount":5,"notConfirmedCount":6,"inconclusiveCount":5,"unsettledDueCount":0,"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260807-AI-HARDWARE-FUNDAMENTAL","title":"AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。"},{"id":"HYP-20260807-AI-HARDWARE-RANK","title":"AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。"},{"id":"HYP-20260807-MARKET-CAPITAL","title":"指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"出现明确背离，原假设未确认。"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-DIRECTION-SPREAD","title":"方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-08-11收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-0.6个百分点、strongRelative=-0.9%、weakRelative=-0.3%、weakAdvanceShare=29.8%"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-08-11收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=74.1%、multiBoardCount=16、limitDownCount=2"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-LIQUIDITY","title":"午后流动性收缩是否延续","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=29.2%、aboveMa20Share=88.1%、turnoverCny=23355.9亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-MEDICINE-PERSISTENCE","title":"医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-PRESSURE","title":"上证第一压力带的有效突破条件","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-TECH-TRANSFER","title":"科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.9%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.0%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-WEAK-DIRECTION","title":"玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛","result":"INCONCLUSIVE","resultNote":"规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-08-11收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.3%、advanceShare=29.8%、medianReturn1d=-0.6%、amountShare=3.0%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260811-BREADTH-TREND-GAP","title":"单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。"},{"id":"HYP-20260811-HIGH-LEVEL-DIVERGENCE","title":"资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。"},{"id":"HYP-20260811-LIMIT-ECOLOGY","title":"封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定","result":"CONFIRMED","resultNote":"8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。"},{"id":"HYP-20260811-MEDICINE-SPREAD","title":"医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","resultNote":"8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。"}]},"threeStructuralChanges":[{"name":"市场广度","change":-0.3013482170445612,"judgment":"收窄","counter":"首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。"},{"name":"趋势存量","change":-0.09202119129662722,"judgment":"弱化","counter":"MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。"},{"name":"市场量能","change":-0.15052348281180405,"judgment":"收缩","counter":"量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。"}],"lifecycle":{"persistentDirections":[{"name":"CPO","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"MLCC","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"创新药","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"存储芯片","top3Appearances":2},{"name":"酿酒","top3Appearances":2}],"oscillatingDirections":[{"name":"创新药","signChanges":4,"latestRelative":-0.003940158483754513},{"name":"PCB","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.019582841516245484},{"name":"先进封装","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.019983841516245486},{"name":"光刻胶","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.019524841516245485},{"name":"商业航天","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.006786841516245487},{"name":"存储芯片","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.021436841516245485},{"name":"物理AI","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.004770841516245487},{"name":"玻璃基板","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":0.014670841516245484}],"latestWeakDirections":["酿酒","文化传媒","创新药"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"windowDays":5},"researchErrors":{"items":[{"id":"HYP-20260807-AI-HARDWARE-FUNDAMENTAL","title":"AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。"},{"id":"HYP-20260807-MARKET-CAPITAL","title":"指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"出现明确背离，原假设未确认。"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-MARKET-PERSISTENCE","title":"广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=29.2%、aboveMa20Share=88.1%、turnoverCny=23355.9亿元"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-PRESSURE","title":"上证第一压力带的有效突破条件","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。"},{"id":"HYP-20260810-TOP-DIRECTION","title":"酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.9%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.0%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05"},{"id":"HYP-20260811-MEDICINE-SPREAD","title":"医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖","result":"NOT_CONFIRMED","reason":"8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。"}],"unsettledDue":[]},"nextWeekQuestions":[{"question":"电子化学品能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散","confirm":"相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄","invalidate":"相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱"},{"question":"广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持","confirm":"上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善","invalidate":"指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落"},{"question":"封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散","confirm":"封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调","invalidate":"高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现"}],"dataAndMethodHealth":{"sessions":["2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14"],"missing":[],"directionCoverageDays":5,"boundary":"研究辅助，不构成投资建议。"},"markdown":"# 广度回落，结构持续性接受检验\n\n五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-30.13%、MA20上方比例变化-9.20%、成交额首尾变化-15.05%；结论只描述状态迁移。\n\n## 1. 上周判断验证\n\n已结算16条：确认5、未确认6、证据不足5；到期未结算0。\n- AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据：NOT_CONFIRMED。复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。\n- AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二：CONFIRMED。来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。\n- 指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善：NOT_CONFIRMED。出现明确背离，原假设未确认。\n- 方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大：CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_SPREAD按2026-08-11收盘结算为CONFIRMED；实际：spread=-0.6个百分点、strongRelative=-0.9%、weakRelative=-0.3%、weakAdvanceShare=29.8%\n- 封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调：INCONCLUSIVE。规则LIMIT_ECOLOGY按2026-08-11收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：sealRate=74.1%、multiBoardCount=16、limitDownCount=2\n- 午后流动性收缩是否延续：INCONCLUSIVE。全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=29.2%、aboveMa20Share=88.1%、turnoverCny=23355.9亿元\n- 医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散：INCONCLUSIVE。医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。\n- 上证第一压力带的有效突破条件：NOT_CONFIRMED。上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。\n- 科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件：INCONCLUSIVE。已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：NOT_CONFIRMED。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.9%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.0%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛：INCONCLUSIVE。规则DIRECTION_REPAIR按2026-08-11收盘结算为INCONCLUSIVE；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.3%、advanceShare=29.8%、medianReturn1d=-0.6%、amountShare=3.0%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛：CONFIRMED。8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。\n- 资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛：CONFIRMED。8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。\n- 封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定：CONFIRMED。8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。\n- 医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖：NOT_CONFIRMED。8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。\n\n## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事\n\n- 市场广度：收窄（-30.13%）。反证：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。\n- 趋势存量：弱化（-9.20%）。反证：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。\n- 市场量能：收缩（-15.05%）。反证：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。\n\n## 3. 持续、反复与转弱\n\n方向数据覆盖5/5。\n- 持续居前：CPO，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：MLCC，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：创新药，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：存储芯片，前3出现2次。\n- 持续居前：酿酒，前3出现2次。\n- 反复方向：创新药，正负切换4次，最新相对收益-0.39%。\n- 反复方向：PCB，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+1.96%。\n- 反复方向：先进封装，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+2.00%。\n- 反复方向：光刻胶，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+1.95%。\n- 反复方向：商业航天，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+0.68%。\n- 反复方向：存储芯片，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+2.14%。\n- 反复方向：物理AI，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+0.48%。\n- 反复方向：玻璃基板，正负切换3次，最新相对收益+1.47%。\n最新弱势方向：酿酒、文化传媒、创新药\n\n## 4. Research Error\n\n- AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据：未确认。复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。\n- 指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善：未确认。出现明确背离，原假设未确认。\n- 广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续：未确认。规则MARKET_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：advanceShare=29.2%、aboveMa20Share=88.1%、turnoverCny=23355.9亿元\n- 上证第一压力带的有效突破条件：未确认。上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。\n- 酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续：未确认。规则DIRECTION_PERSISTENCE按2026-08-11收盘结算为NOT_CONFIRMED；实际：relativeVsAllA=-0.9%、advanceShare=13.3%、medianReturn1d=-1.0%、amountShare=0.5%、membershipAsOf=2026-10-05\n- 医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖：未确认。8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。\n\n## 5. 下周只验证三件事\n\n- 电子化学品能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散。\n  确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄。\n  失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。\n- 广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持。\n  确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善。\n  失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。\n- 封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散。\n  确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调。\n  失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。\n\n## 6. 数据说明\n\n使用交易日：2026-08-10、2026-08-11、2026-08-12、2026-08-13、2026-08-14。\n缺项：无。\n研究辅助，不构成投资建议。\n"}