{"date":"2026-07-31","title":"广度回落，结构持续性接受检验","sentence":"五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-9.20%、MA20上方比例变化+27.71%、成交额首尾变化+22.56%；结论只描述状态迁移。","settledCount":0,"researchErrorCount":0,"inconclusiveCount":0,"sessions":["2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31"],"previousJudgmentVerification":{"settledCount":0,"confirmedCount":0,"notConfirmedCount":0,"inconclusiveCount":0,"unsettledDueCount":0,"items":[]},"threeStructuralChanges":[{"name":"市场广度","change":-0.09202298479218474,"judgment":"收窄","counter":"首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。"},{"name":"趋势存量","change":0.277064920986911,"judgment":"改善","counter":"MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。"},{"name":"市场量能","change":0.22559525772397793,"judgment":"扩张","counter":"量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。"}],"lifecycle":{"persistentDirections":[{"name":"减速器","top3Appearances":3},{"name":"文化传媒","top3Appearances":3},{"name":"酿酒","top3Appearances":3},{"name":"CPO","top3Appearances":2}],"oscillatingDirections":[{"name":"减速器","signChanges":4,"latestRelative":0.016643466534008677},{"name":"金属新材料","signChanges":3,"latestRelative":-0.0021295334659913213},{"name":"CPO","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.02178046653400868},{"name":"PCB","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.013863466534008679},{"name":"先进封装","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.010903466534008682},{"name":"光刻胶","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.00623946653400868},{"name":"商业航天","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.005887466534008682},{"name":"液冷服务器","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.013196466534008678}],"latestWeakDirections":["创新药","金属新材料","酿酒"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"windowDays":5},"researchErrors":{"items":[],"unsettledDue":[]},"nextWeekQuestions":[{"question":"CPO能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散","confirm":"相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄","invalidate":"相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱"},{"question":"广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持","confirm":"上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善","invalidate":"指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落"},{"question":"封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散","confirm":"封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调","invalidate":"高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现"}],"dataAndMethodHealth":{"sessions":["2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31"],"missing":["2026-07-27数据不完整","2026-07-28数据不完整","2026-07-29数据不完整","2026-07-30数据不完整","2026-07-31:directions","2026-07-31数据不完整"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"boundary":"研究辅助，不构成投资建议。"},"markdown":"# 广度回落，结构持续性接受检验\n\n五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-9.20%、MA20上方比例变化+27.71%、成交额首尾变化+22.56%；结论只描述状态迁移。\n\n## 1. 上周判断验证\n\n已结算0条：确认0、未确认0、证据不足0；到期未结算0。\n\n## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事\n\n- 市场广度：收窄（-9.20%）。反证：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。\n- 趋势存量：改善（+27.71%）。反证：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。\n- 市场量能：扩张（+22.56%）。反证：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。\n\n## 3. 持续、反复与转弱\n\n方向数据覆盖5/5。\n- 持续居前：减速器，前3出现3次。\n- 持续居前：文化传媒，前3出现3次。\n- 持续居前：酿酒，前3出现3次。\n- 持续居前：CPO，前3出现2次。\n- 反复方向：减速器，正负切换4次，最新相对收益+1.66%。\n- 反复方向：金属新材料，正负切换3次，最新相对收益-0.21%。\n- 反复方向：CPO，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+2.18%。\n- 反复方向：PCB，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+1.39%。\n- 反复方向：先进封装，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+1.09%。\n- 反复方向：光刻胶，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.62%。\n- 反复方向：商业航天，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+0.59%。\n- 反复方向：液冷服务器，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+1.32%。\n最新弱势方向：创新药、金属新材料、酿酒\n\n## 4. Research Error\n\n本期没有未确认假设；证据不足单独统计。\n\n## 5. 下周只验证三件事\n\n- CPO能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散。\n  确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄。\n  失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。\n- 广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持。\n  确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善。\n  失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。\n- 封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散。\n  确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调。\n  失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。\n\n## 6. 数据说明\n\n使用交易日：2026-07-27、2026-07-28、2026-07-29、2026-07-30、2026-07-31。\n缺项：2026-07-27数据不完整、2026-07-28数据不完整、2026-07-29数据不完整、2026-07-30数据不完整、2026-07-31:directions、2026-07-31数据不完整。\n研究辅助，不构成投资建议。\n"}