{"date":"2026-07-17","title":"广度回落，结构持续性接受检验","sentence":"五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-5.77%、MA20上方比例变化+5.71%、成交额首尾变化-5.75%；结论只描述状态迁移。","settledCount":0,"researchErrorCount":0,"inconclusiveCount":0,"sessions":["2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17"],"previousJudgmentVerification":{"settledCount":0,"confirmedCount":0,"notConfirmedCount":0,"inconclusiveCount":0,"unsettledDueCount":0,"items":[]},"threeStructuralChanges":[{"name":"市场广度","change":-0.05771640578755349,"judgment":"收窄","counter":"首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。"},{"name":"趋势存量","change":0.05710821384332984,"judgment":"改善","counter":"MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。"},{"name":"市场量能","change":-0.05752392084898317,"judgment":"收缩","counter":"量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。"}],"lifecycle":{"persistentDirections":[{"name":"文化传媒","top3Appearances":4},{"name":"酿酒","top3Appearances":4},{"name":"创新药","top3Appearances":3}],"oscillatingDirections":[{"name":"CPO","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":-0.04636877109742847},{"name":"PCB","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":-0.030304771097428462},{"name":"玻璃基板","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":-0.026615771097428464},{"name":"电子化学品","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":-0.033425771097428475},{"name":"酿酒","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":0.034329228902571535},{"name":"金属新材料","signChanges":2,"latestRelative":-0.014117771097428462}],"latestWeakDirections":["CPO","存储芯片","先进封装"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"windowDays":5},"researchErrors":{"items":[],"unsettledDue":[]},"nextWeekQuestions":[{"question":"酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散","confirm":"相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄","invalidate":"相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱"},{"question":"广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持","confirm":"上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善","invalidate":"指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落"},{"question":"封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散","confirm":"封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调","invalidate":"高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现"}],"dataAndMethodHealth":{"sessions":["2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17"],"missing":["2026-07-13数据不完整","2026-07-14数据不完整","2026-07-15数据不完整","2026-07-16数据不完整","2026-07-17:directions","2026-07-17数据不完整"],"directionCoverageDays":5,"boundary":"研究辅助，不构成投资建议。"},"markdown":"# 广度回落，结构持续性接受检验\n\n五个交易日内，上涨覆盖变化-5.77%、MA20上方比例变化+5.71%、成交额首尾变化-5.75%；结论只描述状态迁移。\n\n## 1. 上周判断验证\n\n已结算0条：确认0、未确认0、证据不足0；到期未结算0。\n\n## 2. 真正改变结构的三件事\n\n- 市场广度：收窄（-5.77%）。反证：首尾变化不能代替日内路径，需同时查看五日区间。\n- 趋势存量：改善（+5.71%）。反证：MA20状态具有滞后性，不等于次日方向。\n- 市场量能：收缩（-5.75%）。反证：量能需与上涨覆盖、封板质量共同判断。\n\n## 3. 持续、反复与转弱\n\n方向数据覆盖5/5。\n- 持续居前：文化传媒，前3出现4次。\n- 持续居前：酿酒，前3出现4次。\n- 持续居前：创新药，前3出现3次。\n- 反复方向：CPO，正负切换2次，最新相对收益-4.64%。\n- 反复方向：PCB，正负切换2次，最新相对收益-3.03%。\n- 反复方向：玻璃基板，正负切换2次，最新相对收益-2.66%。\n- 反复方向：电子化学品，正负切换2次，最新相对收益-3.34%。\n- 反复方向：酿酒，正负切换2次，最新相对收益+3.43%。\n- 反复方向：金属新材料，正负切换2次，最新相对收益-1.41%。\n最新弱势方向：CPO、存储芯片、先进封装\n\n## 4. Research Error\n\n本期没有未确认假设；证据不足单独统计。\n\n## 5. 下周只验证三件事\n\n- 酿酒能否连续保持相对收益与内部扩散。\n  确认：相对全A收益为正且上涨覆盖不收窄。\n  失效：相对收益转负且内部中位同步转弱。\n- 广度改善能否获得量能与MA20趋势存量共同支持。\n  确认：上涨覆盖、成交与MA20上方比例至少两项改善。\n  失效：指数维持但中位数和上涨覆盖同步回落。\n- 封板生态是否出现高位压缩与负反馈扩散。\n  确认：封板率、晋级梯队和跌停数量保持协调。\n  失效：高度压缩、晋级率下降与跌停增加同时出现。\n\n## 6. 数据说明\n\n使用交易日：2026-07-13、2026-07-14、2026-07-15、2026-07-16、2026-07-17。\n缺项：2026-07-13数据不完整、2026-07-14数据不完整、2026-07-15数据不完整、2026-07-16数据不完整、2026-07-17:directions、2026-07-17数据不完整。\n研究辅助，不构成投资建议。\n"}