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收盘观测 / MARKET INSTRUMENT

涨跌分化，市场仍在寻找一致方向

2026-09-30 收盘

成交额 TURNOVER
1.4501 万亿环比 +2.00%
涨停 / 跌停 LIMIT UP / DOWN
56 / 13
封板率 SEALED
80%
最高板 STREAK
7连板
市场温度 46.3，16 个方向酿酒+3.14%创新药+2.46%减速器-0.09%文化传媒-0.59%物理AI-0.60%商业航天-0.89%液冷服务器-1.14%光刻胶-1.30%玻璃基板-1.38%金属新材料-1.47%CPO-2.05%PCB-2.34%先进封装-2.38%MLCC-2.42%电子化学品-2.48%存储芯片-2.73%0255075100市场温度46.3COOL — WARM / 100酿酒相对全 A+3.22pp上涨宽度86.7%成交占比1.0%

标签：当日涨跌 · 指针：相对全 A · 内弧：上涨宽度 · 外弧：成交占比

2026-09-30

结论与证据

全A收盘为2567家上涨、2824家下跌，上涨占比46.16%；成交1.4501万亿元，环比+2.00%。涨跌覆盖处于分化区，32.3%样本位于MA20上方；56家封板、13家跌停，尚不能仅凭单日截面确认统一方向。

广度分化 · 量能扩张 · MA20上方32% · 56家封板 · 温度46.3

支持证据

16方向中酿酒当日+3.14%居前；70家触板、封板率80.0%，最高7板。

反证与边界

电子当日等权-2.27%，存储芯片方向-2.73%；成交额环比+2.00%，资金流分类代理-136.3亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额
1.4501 万亿
成交环比
+2.00%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘
2567 / 2824 / 170
上涨覆盖
46.16%
中位涨幅
-0.09%
MA20上方
32.31%
20日新高 / 新低
297 / 789
涨停 / 跌停
56 / 13
触板 / 未封
70 / 14
封板率
80.00%
最高连板
7 板

收盘温度 46.3

  • 广度16.16
    16.16
    输入与公式

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  • 趋势6.46
    6.46
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    上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
  • 涨跌停生态12.17
    12.17
    输入与公式

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  • 量能9
    9
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    上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
  • 指数2.5
    2.5
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    上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 61.3

  • 连板高度15
    15
    输入与公式

    7.00 板

    min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
  • 涨停家数6.72
    6.72
    输入与公式

    56.00 家

    min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
  • 封板成功率11.29
    11.29
    输入与公式

    0.80 比例

    min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
  • 前日晋级率8.42
    8.42
    输入与公式

    0.21 比例

    min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
  • 前日涨停溢价7.97
    7.97
    输入与公式

    0.01 收益率

    clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
  • 亏钱效应0
    0
    输入与公式

    {"limitDown":13,"largeLoss":44} 家

    (1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
  • 上涨广度6.92
    6.92
    输入与公式

    0.46 比例

    min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
  • 涨跌停对比3.15
    3.15
    输入与公式

    {"limitUp":56,"limitDown":13} 家

    min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
  • 市场量能1.86
    1.86
    输入与公式

    0.79 倍

    clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数
上证指数3,842.19+0.31%6,794.0 亿
科创501,530.01-2.51%718.8 亿
深证成指12,887.62-0.11%3,572.8 亿
创业板指3,135.28-0.23%1,378.5 亿
中证10007,298.82-0.36%2,745.0 亿
国证20009,648.50-0.45%4,348.7 亿
市场风格分布
高位加速1322.37%+7.96%+7.59%
趋势延续1793.22%+2.28%+1.90%
低位修复156528.14%+1.34%+0.95%
中间状态368566.27%-1.09%-0.94%

三项风险

分化状态尚未形成一致方向

上涨占比46.16%，中位数涨幅-0.09%。

少数方向逆势承压

通信、电子分别为-1.80%、-2.27%。

放量后的次日承接仍需验证

成交额环比+2.00%，70家触板中14家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

市场广度能否脱离分化区

上涨占比与MA20上方比例同向改善或恶化，才能确认状态迁移。

酿酒强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

存储芯片弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日80.0%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,842.19 · MA5 3,864.23 · MA10 3,890.23 · MA20 3,905.64

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,905.64 · 近10日最低 3,806.67 · 近20日最低 3,806.67；压力：近10日最高 3,967.68 · 近20日最高 3,980.20

结构的两端

行业前五
医药生物+2.06%
食品饮料+1.53%
美容护理+1.53%
银行+1.46%
钢铁+1.21%
行业后五
电子-2.27%
通信-1.80%
计算机-1.08%
机械设备-0.82%
传媒-0.79%
方向前三
酿酒+3.14%
创新药+2.46%
减速器-0.09%
方向后三
存储芯片-2.73%
电子化学品-2.48%
MLCC-2.42%

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。
查看原始日线表
指数日线
2026-04-093,967.633,979.133,955.253,966.17-0.72%
2026-04-103,985.464,011.023,979.813,986.22+0.51%
2026-04-133,971.203,991.263,966.203,988.56+0.06%
2026-04-144,006.734,026.633,992.414,026.63+0.95%
2026-04-154,039.474,050.624,020.904,027.21+0.01%
2026-04-164,030.144,057.834,028.914,055.55+0.70%
2026-04-174,043.384,058.604,038.434,051.43-0.10%
2026-04-204,053.374,083.194,051.694,082.13+0.76%
2026-04-214,075.854,086.644,062.134,085.08+0.07%
2026-04-224,074.814,106.844,074.684,106.26+0.52%
2026-04-234,110.794,114.844,070.464,093.25-0.32%
2026-04-244,081.034,092.614,061.154,079.90-0.33%
2026-04-274,074.814,092.834,071.084,086.34+0.16%
2026-04-284,076.144,090.204,062.874,078.64-0.19%
2026-04-294,061.824,112.154,061.824,107.51+0.71%
2026-04-304,107.304,118.764,100.974,112.16+0.11%
2026-05-064,135.454,166.154,129.914,160.17+1.17%
2026-05-074,168.454,180.214,163.144,180.09+0.48%
2026-05-084,163.854,183.064,154.254,179.95-0.00%
2026-05-114,201.354,229.584,186.084,225.02+1.08%
2026-05-124,229.284,230.184,199.344,214.49-0.25%
2026-05-134,192.314,245.074,192.314,242.57+0.67%
2026-05-144,256.164,258.864,177.924,177.92-1.52%
2026-05-154,174.184,191.814,114.094,135.39-1.02%
2026-05-184,120.144,145.664,108.604,131.53-0.09%
2026-05-194,122.964,170.294,107.994,169.54+0.92%
2026-05-204,152.704,169.854,139.974,162.18-0.18%
2026-05-214,174.384,199.534,074.224,077.28-2.04%
2026-05-224,096.174,120.094,067.754,112.90+0.87%
2026-05-254,126.344,153.884,119.804,152.57+0.96%
2026-05-264,137.324,150.294,104.464,145.37-0.17%
2026-05-274,138.814,153.564,077.624,093.73-1.25%
2026-05-284,080.304,110.784,055.834,098.64+0.12%
2026-05-294,110.524,112.964,055.894,068.57-0.73%
2026-06-014,067.164,093.044,045.694,057.74-0.27%
2026-06-024,061.464,089.574,032.584,075.10+0.43%
2026-06-034,068.344,107.054,059.914,083.97+0.22%
2026-06-044,053.674,080.724,043.434,057.78-0.64%
2026-06-054,044.834,078.934,015.064,027.74-0.74%
2026-06-083,938.714,007.493,927.853,959.34-1.70%
2026-06-093,977.544,010.873,955.914,010.03+1.28%
2026-06-103,985.124,006.313,963.443,993.23-0.42%
2026-06-113,979.713,997.483,958.443,987.01-0.16%
2026-06-124,017.864,060.274,008.184,031.51+1.12%
2026-06-154,053.584,097.174,051.074,096.47+1.61%
2026-06-164,094.214,103.934,077.874,091.89-0.11%
2026-06-174,074.294,109.964,073.734,108.08+0.40%
2026-06-184,094.234,117.454,080.294,090.48-0.43%
2026-06-224,093.954,164.424,070.174,163.10+1.78%
2026-06-234,153.594,175.354,085.594,106.25-1.37%
2026-06-244,090.104,117.284,075.494,110.81+0.11%
2026-06-254,103.484,133.104,093.014,120.28+0.23%
2026-06-264,098.694,099.784,007.864,027.26-2.26%
2026-06-294,026.694,075.333,992.554,073.90+1.16%
2026-06-304,058.174,097.424,052.174,094.40+0.50%
2026-07-014,090.764,143.314,087.544,112.45+0.44%
2026-07-024,054.094,093.684,019.214,028.90-2.03%
2026-07-034,031.344,073.884,027.264,043.64+0.37%
2026-07-064,059.194,060.074,005.414,041.24-0.06%
2026-07-074,019.494,028.513,971.713,990.24-1.26%
2026-07-083,996.814,016.033,967.913,970.88-0.49%
2026-07-093,977.554,040.543,938.884,036.59+1.65%
2026-07-104,031.544,074.833,995.813,996.16-1.00%
2026-07-133,966.023,983.053,900.673,913.79-2.06%
2026-07-143,909.273,967.133,869.303,967.13+1.36%
2026-07-153,963.733,981.673,943.703,955.58-0.29%
2026-07-163,912.383,940.453,867.603,882.41-1.85%
2026-07-173,865.323,869.213,745.173,764.15-3.05%
2026-07-203,791.663,831.663,741.113,796.28+0.85%
2026-07-213,812.163,864.603,743.363,864.37+1.79%
2026-07-223,839.673,884.443,839.673,867.03+0.07%
2026-07-233,868.093,878.833,851.713,876.78+0.25%
2026-07-243,853.633,861.043,808.643,814.20-1.61%
2026-07-273,808.903,858.313,793.453,858.25+1.15%
2026-07-283,823.133,844.013,797.373,813.31-1.16%
2026-07-293,823.293,845.773,782.483,828.47+0.40%
2026-07-303,812.113,839.343,767.503,804.69-0.62%
2026-07-313,833.543,847.093,822.373,832.26+0.72%
2026-08-033,812.613,827.643,797.643,809.66-0.59%
2026-08-043,816.373,831.943,799.523,822.28+0.33%
2026-08-053,815.123,884.403,815.123,878.43+1.47%
2026-08-063,864.273,902.053,864.273,900.35+0.57%
2026-08-073,896.493,940.933,885.623,940.04+1.02%
2026-08-103,943.823,967.593,938.633,966.59+0.67%
2026-08-113,950.713,966.393,930.643,934.09-0.82%
2026-08-123,933.553,950.623,927.553,946.68+0.32%
2026-08-133,957.163,968.483,924.643,926.96-0.50%
2026-08-143,930.023,932.643,903.703,927.18+0.01%
2026-08-173,930.103,983.513,924.473,982.65+1.41%
2026-08-183,979.493,994.183,955.603,990.30+0.19%
2026-08-193,952.123,961.143,879.583,894.42-2.40%
2026-08-203,907.213,925.063,888.103,903.72+0.24%
2026-08-213,891.183,912.133,883.793,905.20+0.04%
2026-08-243,902.703,910.243,855.353,882.01-0.59%
2026-08-253,863.373,896.213,850.863,889.44+0.19%
2026-08-263,881.743,926.443,881.743,912.52+0.59%
2026-08-273,911.893,958.033,909.313,956.57+1.13%
2026-08-283,950.243,970.313,947.803,952.18-0.11%
2026-08-313,926.533,986.303,926.503,986.30+0.86%
2026-09-013,979.883,995.183,976.473,979.89-0.16%
2026-09-023,963.073,965.813,932.253,941.39-0.97%
2026-09-033,952.793,968.113,930.453,942.09+0.02%
2026-09-043,955.553,980.203,915.223,930.12-0.30%
2026-09-073,942.513,948.423,916.493,932.70+0.07%
2026-09-083,935.553,951.323,925.723,940.55+0.20%
2026-09-093,943.923,958.123,933.473,951.51+0.28%
2026-09-103,939.093,949.253,927.353,934.40-0.43%
2026-09-113,910.923,912.323,852.033,888.11-1.18%
2026-09-143,867.023,895.513,867.023,885.33-0.07%
2026-09-153,879.733,891.623,858.153,864.28-0.54%
2026-09-163,861.753,894.663,842.723,891.60+0.71%
2026-09-173,877.003,898.843,866.893,875.60-0.41%
2026-09-183,891.963,919.673,888.503,911.87+0.94%
2026-09-213,920.273,950.943,918.133,949.91+0.97%
2026-09-223,963.813,967.683,945.423,952.13+0.06%
2026-09-233,951.373,951.523,934.463,936.52-0.39%
2026-09-243,925.323,930.503,888.373,888.37-1.22%
2026-09-283,878.413,878.413,806.673,823.62-1.67%
2026-09-293,816.153,843.843,810.813,830.45+0.18%
2026-09-303,839.253,851.223,833.093,842.19+0.31%

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计
手写（无规则）1144336.36%36.36%27.27%
强势方向延续32716921.88%50.00%28.13%
弱势方向修复321601650.00%0.00%50.00%
方向剪刀差21161476.19%4.76%19.05%
涨停生态329101328.13%31.25%40.63%
市场持续性32213176.25%40.63%53.13%
近20个交易日
强势方向延续20510525.00%50.00%25.00%
弱势方向修复201001050.00%0.00%50.00%
方向剪刀差1491464.29%7.14%28.57%
涨停生态2068630.00%40.00%30.00%
市场持续性2009110.00%45.00%55.00%

共 10 条假设

2026-09-30 → 2026-10-08 · 待结算 · 今日生成

存储芯片相对弱势能否收敛

等待 2026-10-08 收盘结算。

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
存储芯片相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件
存储芯片继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险
低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证
生成日收益-2.73%、相对全A-2.65%、上涨覆盖8.8%。

2026-09-30 → 2026-10-08 · 待结算 · 今日生成

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

等待 2026-10-08 收盘结算。

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于60.7%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件
酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险
同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证
生成日单日收益+3.14%、相对全A+3.22%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

2026-09-30 → 2026-10-08 · 待结算 · 今日生成

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

等待 2026-10-08 收盘结算。

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件
上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险
强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证
生成日上涨覆盖46.2%、MA20上方32.3%，高基数提高了延续难度。

2026-09-30 → 2026-10-08 · 待结算 · 今日生成

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

等待 2026-10-08 收盘结算。

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于8家、跌停不超过15家。
失效条件
封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险
不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证
生成日封板率80.0%、多板12家、跌停13家；强基数可能快速回落。

2026-09-30 → 2026-10-08 · 待结算 · 今日生成

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

等待 2026-10-08 收盘结算。

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由5.9%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件
剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险
剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证
生成日最强酿酒与最弱存储芯片相对收益差为5.9%。

2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 · 已确认 · 今日结算

酿酒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-30 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +3.2%、上涨宽度 86.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.8%、成交占比 1.0%

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
酿酒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件
酿酒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险
低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证
生成日收益-4.41%、相对全A-5.25%、上涨覆盖30.0%。

相对全 A +3.2%、上涨宽度 86.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.8%、成交占比 1.0%

2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 · 未确认 · 今日结算

文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-30 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.5%、上涨宽度 29.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.8%、成交占比 2.8%

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
文化传媒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于61.1%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件
文化传媒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险
同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证
生成日单日收益+2.19%、相对全A+1.35%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.5%、上涨宽度 29.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.8%、成交占比 2.8%

2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-30 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 46.2%、均线上方占比 32.3%、成交额 1.4501 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件
上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险
强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证
生成日上涨覆盖62.4%、MA20上方32.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 46.2%、均线上方占比 32.3%、成交额 1.4501 万亿

2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 · 已确认 · 今日结算

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-30 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 80.0%、连板数量 12 家、跌停数量 13 家

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于7家、跌停不超过14家。
失效条件
封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险
不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证
生成日封板率82.6%、多板10家、跌停12家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 80.0%、连板数量 12 家、跌停数量 13 家

2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 · 已确认 · 今日结算

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-30 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -3.7 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.5%、弱势方向相对全 A +3.2%、弱势方向上涨宽度 86.7%

查看确认、失效与反证
确认条件
最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.6%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件
剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险
剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证
生成日最强文化传媒与最弱酿酒相对收益差为6.6%。

强弱差 -3.7 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.5%、弱势方向相对全 A +3.2%、弱势方向上涨宽度 86.7%

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:05:28.665928+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。