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2026-09-15

结论与证据

全A收盘为1120家上涨、4376家下跌，上涨占比20.19%；成交1.6253万亿元，环比-1.08%。单日广度显著转弱，但20.6%样本仍站在MA20上方，同时有32家封板、34家跌停，更接近结构分歧，而不是所有趋势同步失效。

广度承压 · 量能收缩 · MA20上方21% · 32家封板 · 温度27.6

支持证据

16方向中电子化学品当日+2.51%居前；57家触板、封板率56.1%，最高5板。

反证与边界

综合当日等权-3.59%，文化传媒方向-2.14%；成交额环比-1.08%，资金流分类代理-257.9亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 1.6253 万亿
成交环比: -1.08%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 1120 / 4376 / 52
上涨覆盖: 20.19%
中位涨幅: -1.50%
MA20上方: 20.57%
20日新高 / 新低: 173 / 1826
涨停 / 跌停: 32 / 34
触板 / 未封: 57 / 25
封板率: 56.14%
最高连板: 5 板

收盘温度 27.6

广度7.07
7.07
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势4.11
4.11
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 40.4

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数3.84
3.84
输入与公式
32.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率7.93
7.93
输入与公式
0.56 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率4.91
4.91
输入与公式
0.12 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价5.66
5.66
输入与公式
0.00 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":34,"largeLoss":80} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度3.03
3.03
输入与公式
0.20 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比1.8
1.8
输入与公式
{"limitUp":32,"limitDown":34} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能2.49
2.49
输入与公式
0.82 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,864.28	-0.54%	7,639.8 亿
科创50	1,551.96	+1.55%	725.0 亿
深证成指	13,287.97	-0.72%	4,087.6 亿
创业板指	3,247.92	-1.15%	1,598.8 亿
中证1000	7,437.70	-0.41%	3,486.3 亿
国证2000	9,725.85	-0.63%	5,143.5 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	102	1.84%	+7.31%	+6.47%
趋势延续	143	2.58%	+2.24%	+1.75%
低位修复	613	11.05%	+1.26%	+0.90%
中间状态	4690	84.53%	-2.01%	-1.85%

三项风险

单日市场广度明显承压

下跌4376家，上涨占比仅20.19%；中位数涨幅-1.50%。

少数方向逆势承压

商贸零售、综合分别为-3.55%、-3.59%。

缩量与炸板共同降温

成交额环比-1.08%，57家触板中25家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度与趋势存量是否继续背离

若上涨占比修复且MA20上方比例保持高位，分歧仍偏结构性；两者同步下滑则风险升级。

电子化学品强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

文化传媒弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日56.1%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,864.28 · MA5 3,904.73 · MA10 3,921.05 · MA20 3,923.64

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,923.64 · 近10日最低 3,852.03 · 近20日最低 3,850.86；压力：近10日最高 3,980.20 · 近20日最高 3,995.18

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%
2026-08-18	3,979.49	3,994.18	3,955.60	3,990.30	+0.19%
2026-08-19	3,952.12	3,961.14	3,879.58	3,894.42	-2.40%
2026-08-20	3,907.21	3,925.06	3,888.10	3,903.72	+0.24%
2026-08-21	3,891.18	3,912.13	3,883.79	3,905.20	+0.04%
2026-08-24	3,902.70	3,910.24	3,855.35	3,882.01	-0.59%
2026-08-25	3,863.37	3,896.21	3,850.86	3,889.44	+0.19%
2026-08-26	3,881.74	3,926.44	3,881.74	3,912.52	+0.59%
2026-08-27	3,911.89	3,958.03	3,909.31	3,956.57	+1.13%
2026-08-28	3,950.24	3,970.31	3,947.80	3,952.18	-0.11%
2026-08-31	3,926.53	3,986.30	3,926.50	3,986.30	+0.86%
2026-09-01	3,979.88	3,995.18	3,976.47	3,979.89	-0.16%
2026-09-02	3,963.07	3,965.81	3,932.25	3,941.39	-0.97%
2026-09-03	3,952.79	3,968.11	3,930.45	3,942.09	+0.02%
2026-09-04	3,955.55	3,980.20	3,915.22	3,930.12	-0.30%
2026-09-07	3,942.51	3,948.42	3,916.49	3,932.70	+0.07%
2026-09-08	3,935.55	3,951.32	3,925.72	3,940.55	+0.20%
2026-09-09	3,943.92	3,958.12	3,933.47	3,951.51	+0.28%
2026-09-10	3,939.09	3,949.25	3,927.35	3,934.40	-0.43%
2026-09-11	3,910.92	3,912.32	3,852.03	3,888.11	-1.18%
2026-09-14	3,867.02	3,895.51	3,867.02	3,885.33	-0.07%
2026-09-15	3,879.73	3,891.62	3,858.15	3,864.28	-0.54%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

电子	低位修复	518	+0.31%	-0.51%	-5.73%	-0.21%	46.91%	31.85%	4,459.8 亿	27.44%	5	1	74.96	4.97
煤炭	方向待明	33	-0.08%	-2.40%	+3.14%	-0.47%	42.42%	12.12%	106.8 亿	0.66%	0	0	26.47	1.26
电力设备	退潮观察	418	-0.59%	-3.25%	-7.43%	-1.08%	30.38%	19.86%	1,325.3 亿	8.15%	6	2	41.50	2.66
有色金属	退潮观察	145	-0.60%	-4.29%	-6.57%	-0.87%	28.28%	11.72%	783.1 亿	4.82%	0	0	30.61	3.16
非银金融	退潮观察	76	-0.92%	-4.83%	-1.08%	-0.89%	9.21%	6.58%	218.2 亿	1.34%	0	0	14.68	1.17
通信	方向待明	126	-1.09%	-2.56%	-2.40%	-1.23%	25.40%	30.16%	1,257.8 亿	7.74%	1	0	93.02	4.58
钢铁	退潮观察	44	-1.15%	-4.08%	-1.44%	-1.26%	15.91%	13.64%	54.85 亿	0.34%	0	0	23.53	1.18
家用电器	退潮观察	102	-1.22%	-4.36%	-2.55%	-1.52%	24.51%	23.53%	151.7 亿	0.93%	0	0	34.53	2.40
基础化工	退潮观察	450	-1.23%	-5.28%	-3.83%	-1.57%	23.33%	20.44%	933.1 亿	5.74%	2	2	34.30	2.17
银行	方向待明	42	-1.26%	-0.01%	+5.23%	-1.28%	2.38%	64.29%	247.3 亿	1.52%	0	0	6.25	0.56
公用事业	方向待明	139	-1.28%	-0.30%	+1.05%	-1.23%	20.86%	51.08%	438.8 亿	2.70%	3	0	26.90	1.67
交通运输	方向待明	128	-1.29%	-2.93%	+1.02%	-1.05%	19.53%	32.81%	215.4 亿	1.33%	0	1	17.62	1.41
计算机	退潮观察	357	-1.33%	-4.89%	-5.77%	-1.42%	19.05%	17.65%	785.1 亿	4.83%	4	1	72.87	3.45
机械设备	退潮观察	612	-1.35%	-4.93%	-5.82%	-1.44%	19.44%	17.32%	1,195.9 亿	7.36%	3	0	49.16	3.08
石油石化	退潮观察	48	-1.41%	-6.81%	-0.28%	-1.50%	20.83%	14.58%	131.9 亿	0.81%	1	0	28.63	2.05
医药生物	退潮观察	505	-1.61%	-5.19%	-7.62%	-1.67%	12.28%	12.08%	733.7 亿	4.51%	1	0	36.55	2.35
国防军工	方向待明	140	-1.63%	-2.91%	-3.16%	-1.67%	13.57%	37.86%	453.5 亿	2.79%	0	1	84.53	3.77
食品饮料	退潮观察	126	-1.79%	-8.05%	-6.45%	-1.84%	8.73%	5.56%	184.0 亿	1.13%	1	0	24.90	2.21
轻工制造	退潮观察	168	-1.83%	-5.35%	-2.00%	-2.20%	16.07%	27.38%	153.8 亿	0.95%	3	1	32.65	2.19
美容护理	退潮观察	32	-1.84%	-7.25%	-3.97%	-1.30%	9.38%	6.25%	35.66 亿	0.22%	0	1	24.92	2.37
传媒	退潮观察	130	-1.89%	-7.25%	-0.16%	-2.17%	15.38%	26.92%	363.1 亿	2.23%	0	1	40.22	2.84
汽车	退潮观察	324	-1.92%	-5.39%	-5.47%	-1.99%	11.11%	15.12%	512.9 亿	3.16%	1	2	28.64	2.37
建筑材料	方向待明	76	-2.00%	-2.71%	-1.67%	-1.92%	10.53%	23.68%	398.5 亿	2.45%	0	1	41.60	1.70
环保	退潮观察	134	-2.05%	-5.09%	-3.50%	-2.08%	9.70%	17.91%	119.3 亿	0.73%	1	0	28.97	1.95
房地产	退潮观察	95	-2.08%	-6.98%	-2.40%	-2.15%	8.42%	9.47%	103.2 亿	0.63%	0	0	31.92	1.14
纺织服饰	退潮观察	107	-2.15%	-6.63%	-4.72%	-2.38%	14.95%	14.02%	72.21 亿	0.44%	0	0	30.86	1.90
建筑装饰	退潮观察	153	-2.17%	-5.52%	-2.15%	-2.07%	11.11%	16.34%	203.3 亿	1.25%	0	3	28.85	2.04
社会服务	退潮观察	86	-2.91%	-7.68%	-1.53%	-2.30%	9.30%	13.95%	118.0 亿	0.73%	0	6	35.70	2.89
农林牧渔	退潮观察	114	-3.07%	-10.76%	-0.70%	-2.73%	10.53%	19.30%	305.3 亿	1.88%	0	4	43.25	2.51
商贸零售	退潮观察	100	-3.55%	-7.96%	-1.19%	-3.40%	5.00%	10.00%	158.2 亿	0.97%	0	6	31.49	1.86
综合	退潮观察	20	-3.59%	-7.58%	-2.20%	-3.19%	10.00%	15.00%	32.76 亿	0.20%	0	1	47.61	2.87

涨停生态

首板 25 家 · 多板 7 家 · 昨日涨停 57 家 · 今日晋级 7 家 · 晋级率 12.28%

5 板 · 1 家 · 闽东电力

4 板 · 1 家 · 中新赛克

3 板 · 2 家 · 双星新材、澳弘电子

2 板 · 3 家 · 宏盛股份、博汇科技、启明信息

1 板 · 25 家 · 通鼎互联、大金重工、华正新材、诺德股份、天顺风能、中闽能源、北自科技、新中港

行业聚类

电力设备 · 6 家 · 最高 1 板 · 大金重工、诺德股份、天顺风能、吉鑫科技、锡华科技、金龙羽

电子 · 5 家 · 最高 3 板 · 澳弘电子、华正新材、中晶科技、西陇科学、大为股份

计算机 · 4 家 · 最高 4 板 · 中新赛克、博汇科技、启明信息、汉王科技

公用事业 · 3 家 · 最高 5 板 · 闽东电力、中闽能源、新中港

机械设备 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 宏盛股份、北自科技、欧克科技

轻工制造 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 德尔未来、英联股份、华瓷股份

基础化工 · 2 家 · 最高 3 板 · 双星新材、浙江众成

医药生物 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 国邦医药

汽车 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 天龙股份

环保 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 上海洗霸

石油石化 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 和顺石油

通信 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 通鼎互联

食品饮料 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 会稽山

连续晋级与首板

闽东电力	000993.SZ	公用事业	+10.02%	5	22.11 亿	主板	93054	144651	28	5/5	1,364.27 万
中新赛克	002912.SZ	计算机	+10.02%	4	10.64 亿	主板	92500	140933	5	4/4	6,310.43 万
双星新材	002585.SZ	基础化工	+10.04%	3	23.32 亿	主板	93621	94609	1	3/3	1.54 亿
澳弘电子	605058.SH	电子	+9.99%	3	7.45 亿	主板	93705	144147	38	3/3	575.89 万
宏盛股份	603090.SH	机械设备	+10.01%	2	3.57 亿	主板	95328	95328	0	2/2	3,140.00 万
博汇科技	688004.SH	计算机	+19.98%	2	3.42 亿	科创板	93100	93842	2	2/2	3,619.33 万
启明信息	002232.SZ	计算机	+10.01%	2	1.60 亿	主板	93000	93000	0	2/2	9,290.38 万
通鼎互联	002491.SZ	通信	+10.00%	1	58.40 亿	主板	95709	144215	19	1/1	9,243.68 万
大金重工	002487.SZ	电力设备	+10.01%	1	30.53 亿	主板	101718	103148	2	1/1	1.49 亿
华正新材	603186.SH	电子	+10.00%	1	24.84 亿	主板	93107	94139	1	1/1	2.92 亿
诺德股份	600110.SH	电力设备	+9.97%	1	23.12 亿	主板	94714	140420	1	1/1	5,259.45 万
天顺风能	002531.SZ	电力设备	+10.00%	1	12.77 亿	主板	104639	104639	0	2/4	1.02 亿
中闽能源	600163.SH	公用事业	+9.97%	1	11.79 亿	主板	111234	143225	11	1/1	1,078.51 万
北自科技	603082.SH	机械设备	+10.00%	1	6.86 亿	主板	110007	112555	5	1/1	2,926.68 万
新中港	605162.SH	公用事业	+10.00%	1	6.84 亿	主板	104924	142030	5	1/1	778.36 万
浙江众成	002522.SZ	基础化工	+10.04%	1	6.52 亿	主板	143654	143654	0	1/1	3,540.98 万
中晶科技	003026.SZ	电子	+10.00%	1	6.25 亿	主板	102506	131924	1	1/1	2,422.58 万
西陇科学	002584.SZ	电子	+10.01%	1	5.45 亿	主板	131812	132127	1	1/1	6,663.12 万
会稽山	601579.SH	食品饮料	+10.00%	1	5.07 亿	主板	94404	95504	9	1/1	5,695.90 万
大为股份	002213.SZ	电子	+10.00%	1	5.03 亿	主板	101915	101915	0	1/1	7,737.48 万

晋级未完成（最多16只）

凯盛新能	600876.SH	建筑材料	-6.06%	3.82 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
超声电子	000823.SZ	电子	+5.61%	57.94 亿	主板	93618	—	1	4/7	—
众泰汽车	000980.SZ	汽车	-3.00%	20.98 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
正和生态	605069.SH	环保	-2.29%	3.46 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
中视传媒	600088.SH	传媒	-2.04%	9.14 亿	主板	93003	—	1	2/3	—
通达股份	002560.SZ	电力设备	+1.98%	17.38 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
三力制药	603439.SH	医药生物	+2.54%	9.66 亿	主板	92500	—	1	2/3	—
*ST瑞茂	600180.SH	交通运输	-10.05%	8,963.67 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
桂林旅游	000978.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	7.17 亿	主板	—	93821	2	—	2.67 亿
国芳集团	601086.SH	商贸零售	-10.01%	8.76 亿	主板	—	94640	3	—	3.31 亿
欧亚集团	600697.SH	商贸零售	-9.21%	5.06 亿	主板	92501	—	1	1/2	—
瑞玛精密	002976.SZ	汽车	-7.04%	3.93 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
陕西金叶	000812.SZ	轻工制造	-6.52%	2.53 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST益通	300430.SZ	医药生物	-6.45%	1.89 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
国安股份	000839.SZ	通信	-6.43%	9.30 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
柘中股份	002346.SZ	电力设备	-5.65%	4.20 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

远东股份	600869.SH	电力设备	-10.02%	63.44 亿	主板	—	141310	0	—	3.48 亿
金健米业	600127.SH	农林牧渔	-10.02%	20.78 亿	主板	—	102341	0	—	4.47 亿
国芳集团	601086.SH	商贸零售	-10.01%	8.76 亿	主板	—	94640	3	—	3.31 亿
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	-10.03%	8.44 亿	主板	—	101746	8	—	1.38 亿
红棉股份	000523.SZ	综合	-9.97%	8.15 亿	主板	—	133551	1	—	3,684.47 万
龙版传媒	605577.SH	传媒	-10.00%	7.41 亿	主板	—	110126	0	—	6,993.47 万
桂林旅游	000978.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	7.17 亿	主板	—	93821	2	—	2.67 亿
中百集团	000759.SZ	商贸零售	-10.00%	5.88 亿	主板	—	94636	4	—	2.30 亿
云南旅游	002059.SZ	社会服务	-9.98%	5.85 亿	主板	—	140245	19	—	1,897.87 万
湖南天雁	600698.SH	汽车	-10.00%	4.53 亿	主板	—	144448	2	—	522.77 万
百大集团	600865.SH	商贸零售	-10.02%	4.08 亿	主板	—	95920	6	—	9,435.22 万
华天酒店	000428.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	3.84 亿	主板	—	133727	2	—	822.97 万

大跌样本

花溪科技	920895.BJ	机械设备	-21.01%	2.29 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
ST荣科	300290.SZ	计算机	-15.38%	5.71 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
光韵达	300227.SZ	机械设备	-15.22%	8.76 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金橙子	688291.SH	计算机	-12.95%	2.68 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
秋乐种业	920087.BJ	农林牧渔	-12.42%	2.70 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
大地海洋	301068.SZ	环保	-12.38%	1.34 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
ST信源	300352.SZ	计算机	-10.09%	2.51 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST瑞茂	600180.SH	交通运输	-10.05%	8,963.67 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华天酒店	000428.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	3.84 亿	主板	—	133727	2	—	822.97 万
张家界	000430.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	2.46 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
桂林旅游	000978.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	7.17 亿	主板	—	93821	2	—	2.67 亿
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	-10.03%	8.44 亿	主板	—	101746	8	—	1.38 亿

涨幅居前

博汇科技	688004.SH	计算机	+19.98%	2	3.42 亿	科创板	93100	93842	2	2/2	3,619.33 万
气派科技	688216.SH	电子	+15.93%	0	7.26 亿	科创板	101731	—	1	0/0	—
宝丽迪	300905.SZ	基础化工	+15.53%	0	9.82 亿	创业板	101930	—	2	0/0	—
宏工科技	301662.SZ	电力设备	+15.03%	0	6.12 亿	创业板	103400	—	1	0/0	—
振宏股份	920200.BJ	电力设备	+13.07%	0	2.01 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
海力风电	301155.SZ	电力设备	+12.84%	0	6.25 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
匠心家居	301061.SZ	轻工制造	+12.54%	0	3.66 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
臻宝科技	688797.SH	电子	+12.34%	0	19.65 亿	科创板	102453	—	1	0/0	—
凌玮科技	301373.SZ	基础化工	+11.52%	0	15.87 亿	创业板	95736	—	1	0/0	—
浙江众成	002522.SZ	基础化工	+10.04%	1	6.52 亿	主板	143654	143654	0	1/1	3,540.98 万
双星新材	002585.SZ	基础化工	+10.04%	3	23.32 亿	主板	93621	94609	1	3/3	1.54 亿
德尔未来	002631.SZ	轻工制造	+10.02%	1	3.17 亿	主板	102851	110924	2	1/1	7,934.70 万

跌幅居前

花溪科技	920895.BJ	机械设备	-21.01%	2.29 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
ST荣科	300290.SZ	计算机	-15.38%	5.71 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
光韵达	300227.SZ	机械设备	-15.22%	8.76 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
金橙子	688291.SH	计算机	-12.95%	2.68 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
秋乐种业	920087.BJ	农林牧渔	-12.42%	2.70 亿	北交所	—	—	—	—	—
大地海洋	301068.SZ	环保	-12.38%	1.34 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
ST信源	300352.SZ	计算机	-10.09%	2.51 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST瑞茂	600180.SH	交通运输	-10.05%	8,963.67 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华天酒店	000428.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	3.84 亿	主板	—	133727	2	—	822.97 万
张家界	000430.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	2.46 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
桂林旅游	000978.SZ	社会服务	-10.04%	7.17 亿	主板	—	93821	2	—	2.67 亿
敦煌种业	600354.SH	农林牧渔	-10.03%	8.44 亿	主板	—	101746	8	—	1.38 亿

上市板分层

主板	3185	-1.57%	17.11%	21.95%	+1.37%
创业板	1404	-1.36%	20.66%	19.94%	+2.13%
科创板	616	-0.33%	35.55%	21.10%	+1.40%
北交所	343	-1.38%	19.24%	9.33%	+1.38%

市值分层

小盘	2775	-2.12%	12.07%	32.48 亿
中盘	1664	-0.84%	24.76%	91.04 亿
大盘	832	-0.29%	33.41%	277.8 亿
超大盘	277	-0.25%	34.30%	1,274.0 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

电子化学品	方向待明	43/43	+2.51%	+2.53%	-9.65%	+2.51%	+2.52%	-9.81%	-0.00%	88.37%	46.51%	418.9 亿	2.58%	75.00%	+3.88%	1	0	12.63 亿	100.00%
酿酒	低位修复	31/30	+1.56%	-1.53%	+3.13%	-0.64%	-5.96%	-3.22%	-2.21%	10.00%	13.33%	58.27 亿	0.36%	5.00%	+2.93%	1	0	1,482.30 万	100.00%
光刻胶	低位修复	80/80	+1.15%	-0.76%	-9.57%	+1.15%	-0.68%	-9.77%	-0.00%	58.75%	26.25%	352.1 亿	2.17%	60.00%	+2.52%	1	0	19.80 亿	100.00%
MLCC	方向待明	35/35	+1.03%	+5.89%	-6.13%	+0.51%	+5.73%	-7.16%	-0.52%	42.86%	62.86%	497.1 亿	3.06%	80.00%	+2.40%	1	0	-3.09 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	低位修复	206/204	+1.02%	-0.23%	-8.26%	+0.98%	-0.23%	-7.98%	-0.04%	62.75%	30.88%	2,427.9 亿	14.94%	35.00%	+2.38%	2	0	45.46 亿	100.00%
先进封装	方向待明	204/204	+0.81%	+0.07%	-7.68%	+0.81%	+0.12%	-7.50%	+0.00%	53.92%	31.86%	2,114.8 亿	13.01%	45.00%	+2.17%	1	0	29.36 亿	100.00%
PCB	方向待明	236/235	+0.58%	+2.55%	-0.66%	+0.54%	+2.82%	-0.55%	-0.04%	49.79%	55.32%	2,629.5 亿	16.18%	95.00%	+1.95%	6	0	42.24 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	低位修复	57/57	+0.10%	-1.03%	-8.06%	+0.16%	-1.04%	-8.07%	+0.06%	42.11%	26.32%	488.5 亿	3.01%	15.00%	+1.47%	0	0	9.02 亿	100.00%
CPO	方向待明	212/212	-0.18%	+0.40%	-2.17%	-0.20%	+0.53%	-2.08%	-0.02%	40.57%	43.40%	3,191.5 亿	19.64%	25.00%	+1.19%	1	0	-85.47 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	趋势转弱	34/34	-0.19%	-3.15%	-7.50%	-0.19%	-3.14%	-7.60%	+0.00%	41.18%	20.59%	58.91 亿	0.36%	10.00%	+1.18%	0	0	-221.20 万	100.00%
液冷服务器	趋势转弱	229/229	-0.71%	-3.81%	-3.79%	-0.69%	-3.74%	-4.03%	+0.02%	28.38%	28.82%	1,669.5 亿	10.27%	5.00%	+0.66%	2	1	-50.43 亿	100.00%
商业航天	方向待明	507/506	-0.88%	-2.42%	-4.84%	-0.88%	-2.38%	-4.90%	+0.00%	26.48%	29.64%	2,564.7 亿	15.78%	50.00%	+0.49%	1	1	-50.98 亿	100.00%
物理AI	趋势转弱	463/462	-0.96%	-4.12%	-7.86%	-0.97%	-4.04%	-7.69%	-0.01%	24.03%	19.70%	1,798.8 亿	11.07%	5.00%	+0.41%	1	3	-45.87 亿	100.00%
减速器	趋势转弱	139/139	-1.22%	-6.03%	-8.18%	-1.22%	-6.04%	-8.35%	-0.00%	18.71%	17.27%	304.3 亿	1.87%	10.00%	+0.15%	0	0	-4.52 亿	100.00%
创新药	趋势转弱	281/280	-1.54%	-5.05%	-8.52%	-1.55%	-5.05%	-8.91%	-0.01%	11.79%	11.43%	517.3 亿	3.18%	5.00%	-0.18%	0	0	-17.91 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	趋势转弱	197/196	-2.14%	-6.87%	-0.62%	-2.14%	-6.71%	-0.88%	+0.00%	10.20%	21.94%	445.6 亿	2.74%	40.00%	-0.77%	1	2	-15.63 亿	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

电子化学品 · 方向待明

领涨：西陇科学（002584.SZ）+10.01%、方邦股份（688020.SH）+8.46%、同宇新材（301630.SZ）+7.60%

领跌：天通股份（600330.SH）-3.97%、莱尔科技（688683.SH）-1.45%、德邦科技（688035.SH）-0.69%

酿酒 · 低位修复

领涨：会稽山（601579.SH）+10.00%、古越龙山（600059.SH）+3.98%、古井贡酒（000596.SZ）+1.55%

领跌：威龙股份（603779.SH）-3.47%、皇台酒业（000995.SZ）-2.47%、*ST莫高（600543.SH）-2.42%

光刻胶 · 低位修复

领涨：宝丽迪（300905.SZ）+15.53%、西陇科学（002584.SZ）+10.01%、斯迪克（300806.SZ）+9.35%

领跌：迦南科技（300412.SZ）-4.31%、达威股份（300535.SZ）-4.09%、华软科技（002453.SZ）-3.36%

MLCC · 方向待明

领涨：双星新材（002585.SZ）+10.04%、斯迪克（300806.SZ）+9.35%、国风新材（000859.SZ）+6.39%

领跌：利和兴（301013.SZ）-2.48%、风华高科（000636.SZ）-2.36%、昀冢科技（688260.SH）-2.01%

存储芯片 · 低位修复

领涨：气派科技（688216.SH）+15.93%、臻宝科技（688797.SH）+12.34%、和顺石油（603353.SH）+10.01%

领跌：高凯技术（688835.SH）-5.10%、汇通能源（600605.SH）-4.72%、盈方微（000670.SZ）-4.49%

先进封装 · 方向待明

领涨：气派科技（688216.SH）+15.93%、臻宝科技（688797.SH）+12.34%、华正新材（603186.SH）+10.00%

领跌：ST福能（300173.SZ）-4.06%、天通股份（600330.SH）-3.97%、炬光科技（688167.SH）-3.76%

PCB · 方向待明

领涨：西陇科学（002584.SZ）+10.01%、华正新材（603186.SH）+10.00%、大为股份（002213.SZ）+10.00%

领跌：光韵达（300227.SZ）-15.22%、信通电子（001388.SZ）-7.74%、强达电路（301628.SZ）-7.08%

玻璃基板 · 低位修复

领涨：戈碧迦（920438.BJ）+9.74%、利元亨（688499.SH）+6.10%、三孚新科（688359.SH）+5.32%

领跌：沃尔德（688028.SH）-4.62%、三峡新材（600293.SH）-4.40%、利亚德（300296.SZ）-2.63%

CPO · 方向待明

领涨：澳弘电子（605058.SH）+9.99%、骏亚科技（603386.SH）+8.12%、光电股份（600184.SH）+7.53%

领跌：青山纸业（600103.SH）-7.20%、强达电路（301628.SZ）-7.08%、华盛昌（002980.SZ）-4.52%

金属新材料 · 趋势转弱

领涨：春光集团（301531.SZ）+5.62%、新莱福（301323.SZ）+3.84%、深圳新星（603978.SH）+3.78%

领跌：鑫科材料（600255.SH）-3.91%、屹通新材（300930.SZ）-3.71%、合金投资（000633.SZ）-3.26%

液冷服务器 · 趋势转弱

领涨：宏盛股份（603090.SH）+10.01%、上海洗霸（603200.SH）+10.00%、澄天伟业（300689.SZ）+7.31%

领跌：远东股份（600869.SH）-10.02%、行云科技（300209.SZ）-7.09%、集泰股份（002909.SZ）-6.08%

商业航天 · 方向待明

领涨：澳弘电子（605058.SH）+9.99%、戈碧迦（920438.BJ）+9.74%、移远通信（603236.SH）+6.64%

领跌：ST信源（300352.SZ）-10.09%、远东股份（600869.SH）-10.02%、佳华科技（688051.SH）-7.04%

物理AI · 趋势转弱

领涨：启明信息（002232.SZ）+10.01%、众诚科技（920207.BJ）+9.75%、骏亚科技（603386.SH）+8.12%

领跌：远东股份（600869.SH）-10.02%、香山股份（002870.SZ）-10.00%、云南旅游（002059.SZ）-9.98%

减速器 · 趋势转弱

领涨：威力传动（300904.SZ）+9.92%、金雷股份（300443.SZ）+6.38%、山子高科（000981.SZ）+5.96%

领跌：内蒙一机（600967.SH）-6.22%、步科股份（688160.SH）-5.18%、*ST春兴（002547.SZ）-4.51%

创新药 · 趋势转弱

领涨：万邦医药（301520.SZ）+6.64%、八亿时空（688181.SH）+6.06%、津药药业（600488.SH）+3.57%

领跌：亚泰集团（600881.SH）-8.51%、华北制药（600812.SH）-6.71%、瑞康医药（002589.SZ）-6.07%

文化传媒 · 趋势转弱

领涨：博汇科技（688004.SH）+19.98%、中国出版（601949.SH）+4.19%、人民网（603000.SH）+3.98%

领跌：桂林旅游（000978.SZ）-10.04%、龙版传媒（605577.SH）-10.00%、天府文旅（000558.SZ）-6.82%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

AI与半导体	131	+1.93%	+0.42%	-3.60%	-13.00%	291.5 亿	100.00%	35/50	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · -2.30%
消费	48	-0.32%	-0.49%	-3.57%	-3.96%	11.09 亿	100.00%	5/12	华夏国证消费电子主题ETF · -0.68%
红利防御	101	-0.66%	-0.57%	-1.20%	+0.43%	38.06 亿	100.00%	27/32	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · -0.24%
中小盘宽基	141	-0.68%	-0.53%	-2.99%	-7.75%	212.5 亿	100.00%	37/18	易方达创业板ETF · +0.49%
大盘宽基	85	-0.69%	-0.72%	-2.23%	-5.47%	79.43 亿	100.00%	21/20	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · +0.60%
资源周期	63	-0.81%	-0.49%	-4.98%	-6.25%	36.59 亿	100.00%	17/17	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · -0.82%
金融地产	51	-0.86%	-0.72%	-3.21%	-2.65%	48.47 亿	100.00%	14/23	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · -0.10%
医药健康	53	-0.94%	-0.78%	-3.41%	-7.96%	20.31 亿	100.00%	5/30	银华中证创新药产业ETF · -1.37%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

AI硬件与数字经济	电子、通信、计算机	1001	-0.45%	-2.33%	-5.32%	34.27%	26.57%	40.01%	10	2
资源周期	煤炭、有色金属、钢铁、基础化工、石油石化	720	-1.06%	-4.98%	-3.68%	24.58%	17.50%	12.37%	3	2
高端制造	电力设备、机械设备、国防军工、汽车	1494	-1.29%	-4.37%	-5.95%	20.15%	19.48%	21.46%	10	5
金融地产	非银金融、银行、房地产	213	-1.50%	-4.84%	-0.43%	7.51%	19.25%	3.50%	0	0
公用防御	公用事业、交通运输、环保	401	-1.54%	-2.74%	-0.48%	16.71%	34.16%	4.76%	4	1
医药健康	医药生物、美容护理	537	-1.62%	-5.31%	-7.40%	12.10%	11.73%	4.73%	1	1
基建链	建筑材料、建筑装饰	229	-2.11%	-4.58%	-1.99%	10.92%	18.78%	3.70%	0	4
大消费	家用电器、食品饮料、社会服务、农林牧渔、商贸零售	528	-2.47%	-7.84%	-2.66%	11.55%	14.20%	5.64%	1	16

近五个交易日

2026-09-09	43.6	53.3	32.32%	1.8731 万亿	49	5
2026-09-10	25.9	41	17.21%	1.6623 万亿	40	4
2026-09-11	34.2	46.1	11.59%	1.9870 万亿	40	4
2026-09-14	41.7	61	56.32%	1.6430 万亿	57	4
2026-09-15	27.6	40.4	20.19%	1.6253 万亿	32	5

边际变化

成交额：收缩 · -1.08%

上涨覆盖：收窄 · -36.14%

涨停家数：压缩 · -25

最高连板：抬升 · 1

五日成交中位：1.6623 万亿 · 温度区间：25.9–43.6 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：PCB 4次、MLCC 3次、酿酒 2次、CPO 1次、光刻胶 1次、创新药 1次

行业：国防军工 2次、煤炭 2次、电子 2次、银行 2次、传媒 1次、公用事业 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日-1.1%，上涨覆盖20.2%，五日成交中位16623.4亿元。

方向承接 · 电子化学品当日收益+2.51%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 电力设备涨停6家，最高1板。

负反馈 · 跌停34家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 16623.4亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 电子化学品

确认：电子化学品继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 12.3%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖20.2%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 55 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4
2026-08-19	27.1	35.8	8.10%	2.5300 万亿	38	3
2026-08-20	63.1	50.9	73.92%	2.0939 万亿	84	4
2026-08-21	53.7	45.7	45.19%	1.8923 万亿	58	3
2026-08-24	41.8	47.2	26.33%	2.0212 万亿	48	4
2026-08-25	62.5	63.9	76.34%	1.8443 万亿	70	5
2026-08-26	65.4	64.1	53.11%	1.8218 万亿	56	5
2026-08-27	77.3	82.6	61.19%	2.1410 万亿	78	6
2026-08-28	51.9	81.1	54.32%	2.1177 万亿	83	7
2026-08-31	68.9	67.3	57.37%	2.1454 万亿	89	6
2026-09-01	53.4	81.3	61.07%	2.0519 万亿	86	7
2026-09-02	34.1	48.5	27.78%	1.8203 万亿	55	5
2026-09-03	51.2	45.9	33.27%	1.7802 万亿	46	5
2026-09-04	52.8	46.3	44.05%	2.0510 万亿	42	5
2026-09-07	64.9	86.4	57.07%	1.9642 万亿	95	6
2026-09-08	63.9	75	61.58%	1.9782 万亿	75	4
2026-09-09	43.6	53.3	32.32%	1.8731 万亿	49	5
2026-09-10	25.9	41	17.21%	1.6623 万亿	40	4
2026-09-11	34.2	46.1	11.59%	1.9870 万亿	40	4
2026-09-14	41.7	61	56.32%	1.6430 万亿	57	4
2026-09-15	27.6	40.4	20.19%	1.6253 万亿	32	5

情绪九维 40.4

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数3.84
3.84
输入与公式
32 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率7.93
7.93
输入与公式
0.5614035087719298 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率4.91
4.91
输入与公式
0.12280701754385964 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价5.66
5.66
输入与公式
0.0036016607142857157 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应0
0
输入与公式
{"limitDown":34,"largeLoss":80} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度3.03
3.03
输入与公式
0.20187454938716654 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比1.8
1.8
输入与公式
{"limitUp":32,"limitDown":34} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能2.49
2.49
输入与公式
0.8244870314188483 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	102	1.84%	+7.31%	+6.47%
趋势延续	143	2.58%	+2.24%	+1.75%
低位修复	613	11.05%	+1.26%	+0.90%
中间状态	4690	84.53%	-2.01%	-1.85%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 57 家 · 今日晋级 7 家 · 晋级率 12.28%

晋级名单

闽东电力	000993.SZ	公用事业	5	+10.02%
中新赛克	002912.SZ	计算机	4	+10.02%
双星新材	002585.SZ	基础化工	3	+10.04%
澳弘电子	605058.SH	电子	3	+9.99%
宏盛股份	603090.SH	机械设备	2	+10.01%
博汇科技	688004.SH	计算机	2	+19.98%
启明信息	002232.SZ	计算机	2	+10.01%
通鼎互联	002491.SZ	通信	1	+10.00%
大金重工	002487.SZ	电力设备	1	+10.01%
华正新材	603186.SH	电子	1	+10.00%
诺德股份	600110.SH	电力设备	1	+9.97%
天顺风能	002531.SZ	电力设备	1	+10.00%
中闽能源	600163.SH	公用事业	1	+9.97%
北自科技	603082.SH	机械设备	1	+10.00%
新中港	605162.SH	公用事业	1	+10.00%
浙江众成	002522.SZ	基础化工	1	+10.04%
中晶科技	003026.SZ	电子	1	+10.00%
西陇科学	002584.SZ	电子	1	+10.01%
会稽山	601579.SH	食品饮料	1	+10.00%
大为股份	002213.SZ	电子	1	+10.00%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	22	4	11	7	18.18%	50.00%	31.82%
弱势方向修复	22	9	0	13	40.91%	0.00%	59.09%
方向剪刀差	13	11	0	2	84.62%	0.00%	15.38%
涨停生态	22	4	9	9	18.18%	40.91%	40.91%
市场持续性	22	2	10	10	9.09%	45.45%	45.45%

近20个交易日

强势方向延续	20	4	10	6	20.00%	50.00%	30.00%
弱势方向修复	20	8	0	12	40.00%	0.00%	60.00%
方向剪刀差	12	10	0	2	83.33%	0.00%	16.67%
涨停生态	20	4	9	7	20.00%	45.00%	35.00%
市场持续性	20	2	8	10	10.00%	40.00%	50.00%

共 117 条假设

2026-09-15 → 2026-09-16 · 待结算 · 今日生成

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-2.14%、相对全A-0.77%、上涨覆盖10.2%。

2026-09-15 → 2026-09-16 · 待结算 · 今日生成

电子化学品居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于61.9%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 电子化学品相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.51%、相对全A+3.88%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

2026-09-15 → 2026-09-16 · 待结算 · 今日生成

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖20.2%、MA20上方20.6%，高基数提高了延续难度。

2026-09-15 → 2026-09-16 · 待结算 · 今日生成

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于5家、跌停不超过36家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率56.1%、多板7家、跌停34家；强基数可能快速回落。

2026-09-15 → 2026-09-16 · 待结算 · 今日生成

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.6%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强电子化学品与最弱文化传媒相对收益差为4.6%。

2026-09-14 → 2026-09-15 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-15 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.8%、上涨宽度 10.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.2%、成交占比 2.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.17%、相对全A-0.70%、上涨覆盖35.2%。

相对全 A -0.8%、上涨宽度 10.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.2%、成交占比 2.7%

2026-09-14 → 2026-09-15 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-15 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +2.4%、上涨宽度 42.9%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.4%、成交占比 3.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于66.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: MLCC相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+3.14%、相对全A+2.61%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +2.4%、上涨宽度 42.9%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.4%、成交占比 3.1%

2026-09-14 → 2026-09-15 · 未确认 · 今日结算

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-15 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 20.2%、均线上方占比 20.6%、成交额 1.6253 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖56.3%、MA20上方28.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 20.2%、均线上方占比 20.6%、成交额 1.6253 万亿

2026-09-14 → 2026-09-15 · 未确认 · 今日结算

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-15 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 56.1%、连板数量 7 家、跌停数量 34 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于8家、跌停不超过20家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率59.4%、多板11家、跌停18家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 56.1%、连板数量 7 家、跌停数量 34 家

2026-09-14 → 2026-09-15 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-15 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：强弱差 3.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +2.4%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 10.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.3%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强MLCC与最弱文化传媒相对收益差为3.3%。

强弱差 3.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +2.4%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 10.2%

2026-09-11 → 2026-09-14 · 证据不足

酿酒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-14 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.5%、上涨宽度 40.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.1%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 酿酒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-2.67%、相对全A-0.71%、上涨覆盖3.3%。

相对全 A -0.5%、上涨宽度 40.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.1%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-09-11 → 2026-09-14 · 已确认

MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-14 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +2.6%、上涨宽度 94.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.4%、成交占比 3.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: MLCC相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.77%、相对全A+3.74%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +2.6%、上涨宽度 94.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.4%、成交占比 3.4%

2026-09-11 → 2026-09-14 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-14 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 56.3%、均线上方占比 28.1%、成交额 1.6430 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖11.6%、MA20上方26.7%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 56.3%、均线上方占比 28.1%、成交额 1.6430 万亿

2026-09-11 → 2026-09-14 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-14 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 59.4%、连板数量 11 家、跌停数量 18 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于5家、跌停不超过23家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率61.5%、多板7家、跌停21家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 59.4%、连板数量 11 家、跌停数量 18 家

2026-09-11 → 2026-09-14 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-14 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 3.1 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +2.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 40.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.4%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强MLCC与最弱酿酒相对收益差为4.4%。

强弱差 3.1 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +2.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 40.0%

2026-09-10 → 2026-09-11 · 证据不足

酿酒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.7%、上涨宽度 3.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.6%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 酿酒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-2.74%、相对全A-1.43%、上涨覆盖0.0%。

相对全 A -0.7%、上涨宽度 3.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.6%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-09-10 → 2026-09-11 · 证据不足

存储芯片居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 12.7%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.0%、成交占比 12.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 存储芯片继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 存储芯片相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益-0.27%、相对全A+1.04%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 12.7%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.0%、成交占比 12.7%

2026-09-10 → 2026-09-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 11.6%、均线上方占比 26.7%、成交额 1.9870 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖17.2%、MA20上方44.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 11.6%、均线上方占比 26.7%、成交额 1.9870 万亿

2026-09-10 → 2026-09-11 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 61.5%、连板数量 7 家、跌停数量 21 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过16家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率60.6%、多板9家、跌停14家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 61.5%、连板数量 7 家、跌停数量 21 家

2026-09-09 → 2026-09-10 · 证据不足

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-10 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.1%、上涨宽度 12.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.3%、成交占比 2.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-2.23%、相对全A-1.79%、上涨覆盖15.9%。

相对全 A +0.1%、上涨宽度 12.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.3%、成交占比 2.8%

2026-09-09 → 2026-09-10 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-10 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 0.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.6%、成交占比 0.6%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.38%、相对全A+2.82%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 0.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.6%、成交占比 0.6%

2026-09-09 → 2026-09-10 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-10 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 17.2%、均线上方占比 44.1%、成交额 1.6623 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖32.3%、MA20上方55.3%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 17.2%、均线上方占比 44.1%、成交额 1.6623 万亿

2026-09-09 → 2026-09-10 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-10 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 60.6%、连板数量 9 家、跌停数量 14 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于11家、跌停不超过11家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率63.6%、多板15家、跌停9家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 60.6%、连板数量 9 家、跌停数量 14 家

2026-09-09 → 2026-09-10 · 证据不足

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-10 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：强弱差 -1.5 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.1%、弱势方向上涨宽度 12.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.6%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱文化传媒相对收益差为4.6%。

强弱差 -1.5 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.1%、弱势方向上涨宽度 12.8%

2026-09-08 → 2026-09-09 · 证据不足

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-09 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.1%、成交占比 1.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.46%、相对全A-2.12%、上涨覆盖23.3%。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.1%、成交占比 1.7%

2026-09-08 → 2026-09-09 · 未确认

文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-09 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.8%、上涨宽度 15.9%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.4%、成交占比 3.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 文化传媒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.41%、相对全A+0.74%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.8%、上涨宽度 15.9%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.4%、成交占比 3.5%

2026-09-08 → 2026-09-09 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-09 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 32.3%、均线上方占比 55.3%、成交额 1.8731 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖61.6%、MA20上方59.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 32.3%、均线上方占比 55.3%、成交额 1.8731 万亿

2026-09-08 → 2026-09-09 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-09 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 63.6%、连板数量 15 家、跌停数量 9 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率65.8%、多板19家、跌停1家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 63.6%、连板数量 15 家、跌停数量 9 家

2026-09-07 → 2026-09-08 · 证据不足

酿酒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-08 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.6%、上涨宽度 63.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.4%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 酿酒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.78%、相对全A-1.72%、上涨覆盖53.3%。

相对全 A -0.6%、上涨宽度 63.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.4%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-09-07 → 2026-09-08 · 未确认

CPO居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-08 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.3%、上涨宽度 31.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.1%、成交占比 19.3%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: CPO继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于65.4%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: CPO相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+5.59%、相对全A+4.65%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.3%、上涨宽度 31.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.1%、成交占比 19.3%

2026-09-07 → 2026-09-08 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-08 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 61.6%、均线上方占比 59.9%、成交额 1.9782 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖57.1%、MA20上方54.4%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 61.6%、均线上方占比 59.9%、成交额 1.9782 万亿

2026-09-07 → 2026-09-08 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-08 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 65.8%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 1 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过4家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率79.2%、多板13家、跌停2家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 65.8%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 1 家

2026-09-07 → 2026-09-08 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-08 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.7 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.3%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.6%、弱势方向上涨宽度 63.3%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.4%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强CPO与最弱酿酒相对收益差为6.4%。

强弱差 -0.7 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.3%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.6%、弱势方向上涨宽度 63.3%

2026-09-04 → 2026-09-07 · 已确认

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-07 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +3.2%、上涨宽度 97.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +3.1%、成交占比 1.9%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.39%、相对全A-3.11%、上涨覆盖7.0%。

相对全 A +3.2%、上涨宽度 97.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +3.1%、成交占比 1.9%

2026-09-04 → 2026-09-07 · 证据不足

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-07 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.7%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.2%、成交占比 0.6%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+5.32%、相对全A+5.60%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.7%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.2%、成交占比 0.6%

2026-09-04 → 2026-09-07 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-07 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 57.1%、均线上方占比 54.4%、成交额 1.9642 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖44.1%、MA20上方50.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 57.1%、均线上方占比 54.4%、成交额 1.9642 万亿

2026-09-04 → 2026-09-07 · 已确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-07 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 79.2%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 2 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于5家、跌停不超过11家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率45.7%、多板7家、跌停9家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 79.2%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-09-04 → 2026-09-07 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-07 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -4.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.7%、弱势方向相对全 A +3.2%、弱势方向上涨宽度 97.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由8.7%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱电子化学品相对收益差为8.7%。

强弱差 -4.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.7%、弱势方向相对全 A +3.2%、弱势方向上涨宽度 97.7%

2026-09-03 → 2026-09-04 · 已确认

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-04 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +2.0%、上涨宽度 76.6%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.5%、成交占比 4.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.96%、相对全A-0.57%、上涨覆盖20.8%。

相对全 A +2.0%、上涨宽度 76.6%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.5%、成交占比 4.5%

2026-09-03 → 2026-09-04 · 未确认

液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-04 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -2.3%、上涨宽度 17.5%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.3%、成交占比 12.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 液冷服务器继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 液冷服务器相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.84%、相对全A+2.24%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -2.3%、上涨宽度 17.5%、成员涨跌中位数 -2.3%、成交占比 12.2%

2026-09-03 → 2026-09-04 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-04 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 44.1%、均线上方占比 50.1%、成交额 2.0510 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖33.3%、MA20上方51.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 44.1%、均线上方占比 50.1%、成交额 2.0510 万亿

2026-09-03 → 2026-09-04 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-04 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 45.7%、连板数量 7 家、跌停数量 9 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过19家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率56.8%、多板9家、跌停17家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 45.7%、连板数量 7 家、跌停数量 9 家

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 已确认

MLCC相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-03 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.7%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.6%、成交占比 1.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: MLCC继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.62%、相对全A-0.98%、上涨覆盖20.0%。

相对全 A +0.7%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.6%、成交占比 1.7%

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 已确认

液冷服务器居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-03 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +2.2%、上涨宽度 66.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.9%、成交占比 12.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 液冷服务器继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 液冷服务器相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+0.13%、相对全A+0.77%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +2.2%、上涨宽度 66.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.9%、成交占比 12.8%

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-03 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 33.3%、均线上方占比 51.1%、成交额 1.7802 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖27.8%、MA20上方57.3%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 33.3%、均线上方占比 51.1%、成交额 1.7802 万亿

2026-09-02 → 2026-09-03 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-03 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 56.8%、连板数量 9 家、跌停数量 17 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于11家、跌停不超过11家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率72.4%、多板15家、跌停9家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 56.8%、连板数量 9 家、跌停数量 17 家

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 证据不足

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.8%、上涨宽度 14.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.7%、成交占比 1.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.83%、相对全A-4.41%、上涨覆盖9.3%。

相对全 A -0.8%、上涨宽度 14.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.7%、成交占比 1.5%

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.2%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于65.3%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.58%、相对全A+2.00%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.2%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 27.8%、均线上方占比 57.3%、成交额 1.8203 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖61.1%、MA20上方63.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 27.8%、均线上方占比 57.3%、成交额 1.8203 万亿

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 72.4%、连板数量 15 家、跌停数量 9 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于78.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率86.0%、多板18家、跌停0家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 72.4%、连板数量 15 家、跌停数量 9 家

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-02 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-02 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 0.4 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.4%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 14.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.4%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱电子化学品相对收益差为6.4%。

强弱差 0.4 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.4%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 14.0%

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 72.9%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.9%、成交占比 3.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.65%、相对全A-2.41%、上涨覆盖17.9%。

相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 72.9%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.9%、成交占比 3.8%

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +1.6%、上涨宽度 82.2%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.6%、成交占比 4.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于56.5%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 文化传媒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+3.27%、相对全A+2.51%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +1.6%、上涨宽度 82.2%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.6%、成交占比 4.4%

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：上涨宽度 61.1%、均线上方占比 63.9%、成交额 2.0519 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖57.4%、MA20上方61.5%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 61.1%、均线上方占比 63.9%、成交额 2.0519 万亿

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 86.0%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 0 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过15家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率71.2%、多板18家、跌停13家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 86.0%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 0 家

2026-08-31 → 2026-09-01 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-09-01 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 1.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.4%、弱势方向上涨宽度 72.9%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.9%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强文化传媒与最弱创新药相对收益差为4.9%。

强弱差 1.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A +1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.4%、弱势方向上涨宽度 72.9%

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 已确认

存储芯片相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +1.2%、上涨宽度 80.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.7%、成交占比 14.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 存储芯片相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 存储芯片继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.44%、相对全A-1.72%、上涨覆盖22.2%。

相对全 A +1.2%、上涨宽度 80.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.7%、成交占比 14.2%

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 已确认

文化传媒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +2.5%、上涨宽度 80.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.5%、成交占比 3.6%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 文化传媒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+0.66%、相对全A+0.39%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A +2.5%、上涨宽度 80.7%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.5%、成交占比 3.6%

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 已确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为已确认；实际：上涨宽度 57.4%、均线上方占比 61.5%、成交额 2.1454 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖54.3%、MA20上方58.6%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 57.4%、均线上方占比 61.5%、成交额 2.1454 万亿

2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-31 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 71.2%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 13 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过5家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率78.3%、多板18家、跌停3家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 71.2%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 13 家

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 证据不足

酿酒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.7%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.8%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 酿酒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.74%、相对全A-1.93%、上涨覆盖20.0%。

相对全 A -0.7%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.8%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 未确认

电子化学品居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 23.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.6%、成交占比 2.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 电子化学品相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+5.22%、相对全A+4.03%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 23.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.6%、成交占比 2.0%

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 54.3%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.1177 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖61.2%、MA20上方58.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 54.3%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.1177 万亿

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 已确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 78.3%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 3 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于11家、跌停不超过6家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率78.8%、多板16家、跌停4家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 78.3%、连板数量 18 家、跌停数量 3 家

2026-08-27 → 2026-08-28 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-28 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -1.0 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.7%、弱势方向上涨宽度 83.3%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.0%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强电子化学品与最弱酿酒相对收益差为6.0%。

强弱差 -1.0 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.7%、弱势方向上涨宽度 83.3%

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 已确认

MLCC相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +2.9%、上涨宽度 97.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +3.7%、成交占比 2.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: MLCC继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.77%、相对全A-1.04%、上涨覆盖28.6%。

相对全 A +2.9%、上涨宽度 97.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +3.7%、成交占比 2.2%

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 20.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.8%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+0.88%、相对全A+0.62%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 20.0%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.8%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 61.2%、均线上方占比 58.0%、成交额 2.1410 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖53.1%、MA20上方53.8%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 61.2%、均线上方占比 58.0%、成交额 2.1410 万亿

2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 · 已确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-27 收盘结算为已确认；实际：封板率 78.8%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 4 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过4家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率66.7%、多板13家、跌停2家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 78.8%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 4 家

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 37.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.3%、成交占比 1.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.45%、相对全A-1.98%、上涨覆盖37.2%。

相对全 A -0.4%、上涨宽度 37.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.3%、成交占比 1.7%

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.1%、上涨宽度 55.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.2%、成交占比 5.6%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于57.5%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 创新药相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.36%、相对全A+0.82%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.1%、上涨宽度 55.0%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.2%、成交占比 5.6%

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 53.1%、均线上方占比 53.8%、成交额 1.8218 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖76.3%、MA20上方53.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 53.1%、均线上方占比 53.8%、成交额 1.8218 万亿

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-26 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 66.7%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 2 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过6家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率71.4%、多板8家、跌停4家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 66.7%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 已确认

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.8%、上涨宽度 82.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.1%、成交占比 5.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.06%、相对全A-1.90%、上涨覆盖11.1%。

相对全 A +0.8%、上涨宽度 82.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.1%、成交占比 5.7%

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 73.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.1%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.13%、相对全A+2.29%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 73.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.1%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 76.3%、均线上方占比 53.1%、成交额 1.8443 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖26.3%、MA20上方42.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 76.3%、均线上方占比 53.1%、成交额 1.8443 万亿

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 71.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 4 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于7家、跌停不超过16家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率69.6%、多板10家、跌停14家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 71.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 4 家

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -2.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 82.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.2%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱创新药相对收益差为4.2%。

强弱差 -2.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 82.1%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 证据不足

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 11.1%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.2%、成交占比 5.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.71%、相对全A-3.63%、上涨覆盖5.4%。

相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 11.1%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.2%、成交占比 5.8%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 未确认

MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 14.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.3%、成交占比 2.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于60.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: MLCC相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.81%、相对全A+1.88%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 14.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.3%、成交占比 2.1%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 26.3%、均线上方占比 42.1%、成交额 2.0212 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖45.2%、MA20上方53.5%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 26.3%、均线上方占比 42.1%、成交额 2.0212 万亿

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 69.6%、连板数量 10 家、跌停数量 14 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过17家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率74.4%、多板13家、跌停15家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 69.6%、连板数量 10 家、跌停数量 14 家

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 0.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.9%、弱势方向上涨宽度 11.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由5.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强MLCC与最弱创新药相对收益差为5.5%。

强弱差 0.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.9%、弱势方向上涨宽度 11.1%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 已确认

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 58.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.3%、成交占比 2.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.46%、相对全A-1.86%、上涨覆盖37.2%。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 58.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.3%、成交占比 2.2%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 未确认

创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -3.6%、上涨宽度 5.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -4.0%、成交占比 7.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于63.7%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 创新药相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+4.46%、相对全A+3.06%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -3.6%、上涨宽度 5.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -4.0%、成交占比 7.8%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 45.2%、均线上方占比 53.5%、成交额 1.8923 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.9%、MA20上方58.6%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 45.2%、均线上方占比 53.5%、成交额 1.8923 万亿

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.4%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 15 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于5家、跌停不超过15家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率60.9%、多板5家、跌停13家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.4%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 15 家

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -3.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -3.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 58.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.9%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强创新药与最弱电子化学品相对收益差为4.9%。

强弱差 -3.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -3.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 58.1%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

MLCC相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.5%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 2.3%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: MLCC继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-8.54%、相对全A-4.52%、上涨覆盖0.0%。

相对全 A -1.5%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 2.3%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.2%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.0%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益-2.47%、相对全A+1.55%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.2%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.0%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 73.9%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.0939 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖8.1%、MA20上方50.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 73.9%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.0939 万亿

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 60.9%、连板数量 5 家、跌停数量 13 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过132家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率70.4%、多板8家、跌停130家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 60.9%、连板数量 5 家、跌停数量 13 家

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 1.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.2%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 51.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.1%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱MLCC相对收益差为6.1%。

强弱差 1.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.2%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 51.4%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 证据不足

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.5%、上涨宽度 6.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.6%、成交占比 1.9%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.13%、相对全A-1.19%、上涨覆盖19.9%。

相对全 A +0.5%、上涨宽度 6.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.6%、成交占比 1.9%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -3.4%、上涨宽度 1.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -8.0%、成交占比 4.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 玻璃基板相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.14%、相对全A+1.09%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -3.4%、上涨宽度 1.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -8.0%、成交占比 4.2%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 8.1%、均线上方占比 50.0%、成交额 2.5300 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于71.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖38.3%、MA20上方81.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 8.1%、均线上方占比 50.0%、成交额 2.5300 万亿

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 70.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 130 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率73.0%、多板19家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 70.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 130 家

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 已确认

白酒逆势偏弱是否开始收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 白酒相对全A的落后幅度收窄，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势从前排扩散至方向中位数。
风险: 单日防御与进攻风格切换可能造成白酒相对收益波动，不能以一天判断中期方向。
反证: 8月17日白酒方向下跌1.25%，是16个重点方向中唯一明显走弱者。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足

高封板率与多板梯队能否保持稳定

涨停生态按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于80%、多板梯队不少于12家、跌停家数不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率跌破70%，或多板梯队少于8家且跌停家数同步增加。
风险: 涨跌幅制度因交易板与ST状态而异，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径，不能只看约10%涨跌幅。
反证: 8月17日封板率87.30%、多板15家、跌停1家处于较强状态，高位样本次日分化可能使指标快速回落。

封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足

电子化学品强势能否扩散而非单日脉冲

强势方向延续按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对收益，方向内上涨覆盖保持60%以上，且成交占比未明显收缩。
失效条件: 相对收益转负、上涨覆盖跌破45%，或前排上涨而方向中位数转负。
风险: 方向篮子是透明映射后的市场观察口径，不等同于官方指数，也不代表基本面兑现。
反证: 8月17日单日涨幅5.09%位居方向第一，短线拥挤与次日分化风险同时上升。

相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 未确认

广度与量能共振能否延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖保持50%以上、MA20上方比例保持80%以上，且成交额较8月17日收缩不超过10%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖跌破40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 8月17日属于单日强扩散，次日可能出现自然均值回归，不能把一天的普涨外推为趋势。
反证: 8月17日上涨覆盖78.26%、成交额环比增加11.40%，高基数本身提高了次日延续难度。

上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 未确认

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。

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确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

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确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

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确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

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确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

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确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

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确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

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确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:04:38.227467+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。