历史详情 · A 股观测台

2026-08-25

结论与证据

全A收盘为4234家上涨、1246家下跌，上涨占比76.34%；成交1.8443万亿元，环比-8.75%。单日广度明显扩张，53.1%样本位于MA20上方；70家封板、4家跌停，广度与涨停生态相互印证。这确认了当日扩张，但持续性仍需下一交易日验证。

广度扩张 · 量能收缩 · MA20上方53% · 70家封板 · 温度62.5

支持证据

16方向中创新药当日+2.36%居前；98家触板、封板率71.4%，最高5板。

反证与边界

有色金属当日等权-1.14%，电子化学品方向-0.45%；成交额环比-8.75%，资金流分类代理+79.9亿元。

把市场拆成可核对的数字

成交额: 1.8443 万亿
成交环比: -8.75%
上涨 / 下跌 / 平盘: 4234 / 1246 / 66
上涨覆盖: 76.34%
中位涨幅: +1.47%
MA20上方: 53.08%
20日新高 / 新低: 593 / 142
涨停 / 跌停: 70 / 4
触板 / 未封: 98 / 28
封板率: 71.43%
最高连板: 5 板

收盘温度 62.5

广度26.72
26.72
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
趋势10.62
10.62
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
涨跌停生态14.19
14.19
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15
指数10
10
输入与公式
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上涨覆盖×35 + MA20上方比例×20 + 涨停/(涨停+跌停)×15 + clip((成交额环比+0.10)/0.20,0,1)×15 + 上涨指数数/6×15

情绪九维 63.9

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5.00 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数8.4
8.4
输入与公式
70.00 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.08
10.08
输入与公式
0.71 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.67
6.67
输入与公式
0.17 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价6.68
6.68
输入与公式
0.01 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应4.5
4.5
输入与公式
{"limitDown":4,"largeLoss":18} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.76 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比6.19
6.19
输入与公式
{"limitUp":70,"limitDown":4} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能1.72
1.72
输入与公式
0.79 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

透明的收盘状态合成，不是概率、仓位或交易信号。

六个指数

上证指数	3,889.44	+0.19%	8,588.7 亿
科创50	1,604.59	+0.14%	752.9 亿
深证成指	13,745.87	-0.35%	5,056.4 亿
创业板指	3,397.52	-1.00%	1,896.9 亿
中证1000	7,527.50	+0.48%	4,017.9 亿
国证2000	9,834.22	+0.99%	5,651.2 亿

市场风格分布

高位加速	143	2.58%	+7.76%	+7.02%
趋势延续	277	4.99%	+3.12%	+2.61%
低位修复	1911	34.46%	+1.94%	+1.55%
中间状态	3215	57.97%	+0.88%	+1.02%

三项风险

普涨后的广度持续性尚未确认

上涨占比76.34%、中位数涨幅+1.47%；单日扩张不等同连续扩张。

少数方向逆势承压

银行、有色金属分别为-0.75%、-1.14%。

缩量与炸板共同降温

成交额环比-8.75%，98家触板中28家未封住。

下一交易日，验证什么

广度扩张能否延续

上涨占比继续高于50%，且MA20上方比例不显著低于今日53.1%。

创新药强势能否扩散

相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项继续改善。

电子化学品弱势能否收敛

相对收益不再恶化，且上涨覆盖回升。

封板生态能否稳定

封板率不低于今日71.4%，多板梯队未明显塌缩。

上证技术位

收盘 3,889.44 · MA5 3,894.96 · MA10 3,924.86 · MA20 3,898.27

收盘高于前20日区间高点，且全A上涨覆盖不低于50%，且全市场成交额不低于近20日中位数。

当前条件：尚未满足

支撑：MA20 3,898.27 · 近10日最低 3,850.86 · 近20日最低 3,767.50；压力：近10日最高 3,994.18 · 近20日最高 3,994.18

上证 K 线

TuShare指数日线；红涨绿跌。均线需要足够历史，不足则不显示。

查看原始日线表

指数日线

2026-03-04	4,087.63	4,106.04	4,055.41	4,082.47	-0.98%
2026-03-05	4,109.78	4,125.62	4,090.62	4,108.57	+0.64%
2026-03-06	4,085.90	4,129.46	4,085.90	4,124.19	+0.38%
2026-03-09	4,098.70	4,106.53	4,052.55	4,096.60	-0.67%
2026-03-10	4,098.59	4,123.96	4,098.59	4,123.14	+0.65%
2026-03-11	4,123.67	4,135.84	4,112.80	4,133.43	+0.25%
2026-03-12	4,133.20	4,141.65	4,103.16	4,129.10	-0.10%
2026-03-13	4,117.57	4,134.08	4,086.85	4,095.45	-0.82%
2026-03-16	4,092.25	4,096.13	4,048.09	4,084.79	-0.26%
2026-03-17	4,086.30	4,108.40	4,049.58	4,049.91	-0.85%
2026-03-18	4,053.31	4,065.37	4,023.03	4,062.98	+0.32%
2026-03-19	4,028.54	4,042.02	3,994.17	4,006.55	-1.39%
2026-03-20	4,004.57	4,022.70	3,955.71	3,957.05	-1.24%
2026-03-23	3,904.95	3,906.62	3,794.68	3,813.28	-3.63%
2026-03-24	3,849.63	3,881.42	3,807.99	3,881.28	+1.78%
2026-03-25	3,892.27	3,933.06	3,891.82	3,931.84	+1.30%
2026-03-26	3,924.96	3,937.10	3,880.57	3,889.08	-1.09%
2026-03-27	3,852.09	3,924.11	3,852.09	3,913.72	+0.63%
2026-03-30	3,884.28	3,924.29	3,872.78	3,923.29	+0.24%
2026-03-31	3,924.07	3,948.81	3,891.86	3,891.86	-0.80%
2026-04-01	3,939.57	3,955.94	3,929.92	3,948.55	+1.46%
2026-04-02	3,940.80	3,952.58	3,900.12	3,919.29	-0.74%
2026-04-03	3,927.59	3,929.53	3,871.30	3,880.10	-1.00%
2026-04-07	3,884.15	3,902.61	3,875.68	3,890.16	+0.26%
2026-04-08	3,930.25	3,995.00	3,926.25	3,995.00	+2.69%
2026-04-09	3,967.63	3,979.13	3,955.25	3,966.17	-0.72%
2026-04-10	3,985.46	4,011.02	3,979.81	3,986.22	+0.51%
2026-04-13	3,971.20	3,991.26	3,966.20	3,988.56	+0.06%
2026-04-14	4,006.73	4,026.63	3,992.41	4,026.63	+0.95%
2026-04-15	4,039.47	4,050.62	4,020.90	4,027.21	+0.01%
2026-04-16	4,030.14	4,057.83	4,028.91	4,055.55	+0.70%
2026-04-17	4,043.38	4,058.60	4,038.43	4,051.43	-0.10%
2026-04-20	4,053.37	4,083.19	4,051.69	4,082.13	+0.76%
2026-04-21	4,075.85	4,086.64	4,062.13	4,085.08	+0.07%
2026-04-22	4,074.81	4,106.84	4,074.68	4,106.26	+0.52%
2026-04-23	4,110.79	4,114.84	4,070.46	4,093.25	-0.32%
2026-04-24	4,081.03	4,092.61	4,061.15	4,079.90	-0.33%
2026-04-27	4,074.81	4,092.83	4,071.08	4,086.34	+0.16%
2026-04-28	4,076.14	4,090.20	4,062.87	4,078.64	-0.19%
2026-04-29	4,061.82	4,112.15	4,061.82	4,107.51	+0.71%
2026-04-30	4,107.30	4,118.76	4,100.97	4,112.16	+0.11%
2026-05-06	4,135.45	4,166.15	4,129.91	4,160.17	+1.17%
2026-05-07	4,168.45	4,180.21	4,163.14	4,180.09	+0.48%
2026-05-08	4,163.85	4,183.06	4,154.25	4,179.95	-0.00%
2026-05-11	4,201.35	4,229.58	4,186.08	4,225.02	+1.08%
2026-05-12	4,229.28	4,230.18	4,199.34	4,214.49	-0.25%
2026-05-13	4,192.31	4,245.07	4,192.31	4,242.57	+0.67%
2026-05-14	4,256.16	4,258.86	4,177.92	4,177.92	-1.52%
2026-05-15	4,174.18	4,191.81	4,114.09	4,135.39	-1.02%
2026-05-18	4,120.14	4,145.66	4,108.60	4,131.53	-0.09%
2026-05-19	4,122.96	4,170.29	4,107.99	4,169.54	+0.92%
2026-05-20	4,152.70	4,169.85	4,139.97	4,162.18	-0.18%
2026-05-21	4,174.38	4,199.53	4,074.22	4,077.28	-2.04%
2026-05-22	4,096.17	4,120.09	4,067.75	4,112.90	+0.87%
2026-05-25	4,126.34	4,153.88	4,119.80	4,152.57	+0.96%
2026-05-26	4,137.32	4,150.29	4,104.46	4,145.37	-0.17%
2026-05-27	4,138.81	4,153.56	4,077.62	4,093.73	-1.25%
2026-05-28	4,080.30	4,110.78	4,055.83	4,098.64	+0.12%
2026-05-29	4,110.52	4,112.96	4,055.89	4,068.57	-0.73%
2026-06-01	4,067.16	4,093.04	4,045.69	4,057.74	-0.27%
2026-06-02	4,061.46	4,089.57	4,032.58	4,075.10	+0.43%
2026-06-03	4,068.34	4,107.05	4,059.91	4,083.97	+0.22%
2026-06-04	4,053.67	4,080.72	4,043.43	4,057.78	-0.64%
2026-06-05	4,044.83	4,078.93	4,015.06	4,027.74	-0.74%
2026-06-08	3,938.71	4,007.49	3,927.85	3,959.34	-1.70%
2026-06-09	3,977.54	4,010.87	3,955.91	4,010.03	+1.28%
2026-06-10	3,985.12	4,006.31	3,963.44	3,993.23	-0.42%
2026-06-11	3,979.71	3,997.48	3,958.44	3,987.01	-0.16%
2026-06-12	4,017.86	4,060.27	4,008.18	4,031.51	+1.12%
2026-06-15	4,053.58	4,097.17	4,051.07	4,096.47	+1.61%
2026-06-16	4,094.21	4,103.93	4,077.87	4,091.89	-0.11%
2026-06-17	4,074.29	4,109.96	4,073.73	4,108.08	+0.40%
2026-06-18	4,094.23	4,117.45	4,080.29	4,090.48	-0.43%
2026-06-22	4,093.95	4,164.42	4,070.17	4,163.10	+1.78%
2026-06-23	4,153.59	4,175.35	4,085.59	4,106.25	-1.37%
2026-06-24	4,090.10	4,117.28	4,075.49	4,110.81	+0.11%
2026-06-25	4,103.48	4,133.10	4,093.01	4,120.28	+0.23%
2026-06-26	4,098.69	4,099.78	4,007.86	4,027.26	-2.26%
2026-06-29	4,026.69	4,075.33	3,992.55	4,073.90	+1.16%
2026-06-30	4,058.17	4,097.42	4,052.17	4,094.40	+0.50%
2026-07-01	4,090.76	4,143.31	4,087.54	4,112.45	+0.44%
2026-07-02	4,054.09	4,093.68	4,019.21	4,028.90	-2.03%
2026-07-03	4,031.34	4,073.88	4,027.26	4,043.64	+0.37%
2026-07-06	4,059.19	4,060.07	4,005.41	4,041.24	-0.06%
2026-07-07	4,019.49	4,028.51	3,971.71	3,990.24	-1.26%
2026-07-08	3,996.81	4,016.03	3,967.91	3,970.88	-0.49%
2026-07-09	3,977.55	4,040.54	3,938.88	4,036.59	+1.65%
2026-07-10	4,031.54	4,074.83	3,995.81	3,996.16	-1.00%
2026-07-13	3,966.02	3,983.05	3,900.67	3,913.79	-2.06%
2026-07-14	3,909.27	3,967.13	3,869.30	3,967.13	+1.36%
2026-07-15	3,963.73	3,981.67	3,943.70	3,955.58	-0.29%
2026-07-16	3,912.38	3,940.45	3,867.60	3,882.41	-1.85%
2026-07-17	3,865.32	3,869.21	3,745.17	3,764.15	-3.05%
2026-07-20	3,791.66	3,831.66	3,741.11	3,796.28	+0.85%
2026-07-21	3,812.16	3,864.60	3,743.36	3,864.37	+1.79%
2026-07-22	3,839.67	3,884.44	3,839.67	3,867.03	+0.07%
2026-07-23	3,868.09	3,878.83	3,851.71	3,876.78	+0.25%
2026-07-24	3,853.63	3,861.04	3,808.64	3,814.20	-1.61%
2026-07-27	3,808.90	3,858.31	3,793.45	3,858.25	+1.15%
2026-07-28	3,823.13	3,844.01	3,797.37	3,813.31	-1.16%
2026-07-29	3,823.29	3,845.77	3,782.48	3,828.47	+0.40%
2026-07-30	3,812.11	3,839.34	3,767.50	3,804.69	-0.62%
2026-07-31	3,833.54	3,847.09	3,822.37	3,832.26	+0.72%
2026-08-03	3,812.61	3,827.64	3,797.64	3,809.66	-0.59%
2026-08-04	3,816.37	3,831.94	3,799.52	3,822.28	+0.33%
2026-08-05	3,815.12	3,884.40	3,815.12	3,878.43	+1.47%
2026-08-06	3,864.27	3,902.05	3,864.27	3,900.35	+0.57%
2026-08-07	3,896.49	3,940.93	3,885.62	3,940.04	+1.02%
2026-08-10	3,943.82	3,967.59	3,938.63	3,966.59	+0.67%
2026-08-11	3,950.71	3,966.39	3,930.64	3,934.09	-0.82%
2026-08-12	3,933.55	3,950.62	3,927.55	3,946.68	+0.32%
2026-08-13	3,957.16	3,968.48	3,924.64	3,926.96	-0.50%
2026-08-14	3,930.02	3,932.64	3,903.70	3,927.18	+0.01%
2026-08-17	3,930.10	3,983.51	3,924.47	3,982.65	+1.41%
2026-08-18	3,979.49	3,994.18	3,955.60	3,990.30	+0.19%
2026-08-19	3,952.12	3,961.14	3,879.58	3,894.42	-2.40%
2026-08-20	3,907.21	3,925.06	3,888.10	3,903.72	+0.24%
2026-08-21	3,891.18	3,912.13	3,883.79	3,905.20	+0.04%
2026-08-24	3,902.70	3,910.24	3,855.35	3,882.01	-0.59%
2026-08-25	3,863.37	3,896.21	3,850.86	3,889.44	+0.19%

申万一级行业 · 点时成员等权聚合，不是行业指数收益

美容护理	低位修复	32	+3.37%	-0.90%	+0.96%	+2.62%	96.88%	50.00%	48.27 亿	0.26%	1	0	25.80	2.42
商贸零售	低位修复	100	+2.57%	-0.44%	+7.19%	+2.59%	88.00%	61.00%	159.4 亿	0.86%	3	0	29.68	1.86
农林牧渔	低位修复	114	+2.49%	-1.96%	+13.05%	+2.46%	90.35%	75.44%	307.5 亿	1.67%	3	0	42.95	2.47
医药生物	低位修复	504	+2.39%	-2.21%	+9.62%	+2.20%	84.33%	50.60%	1,437.7 亿	7.80%	8	0	38.58	2.52
房地产	修复延续	95	+2.36%	+0.11%	+8.54%	+2.49%	87.37%	66.32%	144.8 亿	0.79%	1	0	35.39	1.14
机械设备	低位修复	613	+2.35%	-3.24%	+10.98%	+1.81%	79.61%	58.40%	1,540.3 亿	8.35%	9	0	50.03	3.16
社会服务	低位修复	86	+2.27%	-0.41%	+9.56%	+2.00%	88.37%	61.63%	117.2 亿	0.64%	2	0	36.08	3.00
轻工制造	低位修复	167	+2.21%	-0.22%	+10.71%	+2.09%	89.22%	71.86%	136.9 亿	0.74%	5	1	33.19	2.26
传媒	低位修复	131	+2.20%	-2.50%	+6.16%	+2.17%	90.84%	28.24%	277.8 亿	1.51%	1	0	40.05	3.00
综合	低位修复	20	+2.02%	-0.21%	+10.52%	+2.43%	80.00%	80.00%	32.77 亿	0.18%	0	0	48.25	3.00
家用电器	低位修复	102	+2.01%	-1.21%	+8.53%	+1.81%	80.39%	61.76%	196.6 亿	1.07%	2	0	43.06	2.54
建筑装饰	低位修复	155	+2.00%	-0.31%	+9.71%	+1.64%	85.81%	57.42%	227.9 亿	1.24%	8	0	32.13	2.09
计算机	低位修复	357	+1.94%	-4.08%	+7.04%	+2.07%	85.15%	33.33%	803.7 亿	4.36%	0	1	79.05	3.47
汽车	低位修复	323	+1.92%	-2.69%	+7.19%	+1.97%	84.83%	52.94%	516.9 亿	2.80%	3	0	29.59	2.41
食品饮料	低位修复	126	+1.66%	-2.73%	+7.97%	+1.65%	83.33%	47.62%	249.4 亿	1.35%	0	1	25.64	2.24
通信	低位修复	127	+1.59%	-3.22%	+13.23%	+1.56%	75.59%	65.35%	1,621.7 亿	8.79%	2	0	93.62	4.71
建筑材料	低位修复	76	+1.47%	-1.50%	+7.77%	+1.49%	81.58%	53.95%	207.0 亿	1.12%	1	0	41.76	1.62
国防军工	低位修复	140	+1.41%	-5.40%	+4.21%	+1.39%	77.86%	30.00%	350.3 亿	1.90%	1	0	78.12	3.66
环保	低位修复	134	+1.31%	-0.72%	+9.73%	+1.40%	77.61%	62.69%	138.1 亿	0.75%	0	0	30.38	2.00
纺织服饰	低位修复	108	+1.26%	-1.09%	+8.66%	+1.35%	74.07%	63.89%	116.3 亿	0.63%	1	1	30.18	1.95
钢铁	修复延续	43	+1.06%	+0.30%	+3.83%	+0.85%	72.09%	51.16%	74.40 亿	0.40%	1	0	23.06	1.19
基础化工	低位修复	448	+1.05%	-2.49%	+9.31%	+1.08%	72.54%	58.93%	1,001.1 亿	5.43%	7	0	37.42	2.20
交通运输	修复延续	128	+1.02%	+0.83%	+4.31%	+0.90%	76.56%	60.16%	220.0 亿	1.19%	0	0	18.24	1.38
公用事业	低位修复	139	+0.95%	-1.34%	+1.00%	+0.75%	74.10%	33.09%	327.7 亿	1.78%	2	0	24.59	1.60
非银金融	修复延续	79	+0.88%	+0.17%	+0.64%	+0.63%	74.68%	27.85%	318.1 亿	1.72%	1	0	16.36	1.23
电子	低位修复	518	+0.65%	-6.96%	+10.02%	+0.63%	60.81%	55.60%	4,556.9 亿	24.71%	3	0	79.88	4.96
电力设备	低位修复	414	+0.50%	-4.12%	+6.48%	+0.78%	65.22%	39.37%	1,320.8 亿	7.16%	3	0	44.87	2.72
石油石化	修复延续	48	+0.50%	+0.60%	+9.12%	+0.75%	62.50%	85.42%	169.4 亿	0.92%	0	0	34.91	2.09
煤炭	方向待明	33	+0.30%	+4.26%	+11.79%	0.00%	48.48%	93.94%	160.1 亿	0.87%	1	0	29.56	1.38
银行	高位分歧	42	-0.75%	+2.47%	+0.88%	-0.60%	14.29%	64.29%	286.8 亿	1.56%	0	0	6.17	0.55
有色金属	方向待明	144	-1.14%	-2.18%	+12.82%	-1.17%	37.50%	53.47%	1,376.9 亿	7.47%	1	0	33.74	3.26

涨停生态

首板 61 家 · 多板 9 家 · 昨日涨停 48 家 · 今日晋级 8 家 · 晋级率 16.67%

5 板 · 1 家 · 汉森制药

4 板 · 1 家 · 深中华A

3 板 · 2 家 · 新华百货、楚天龙

2 板 · 5 家 · 登海种业、上海能源、建设机械、中南文化、海鸥住工

1 板 · 61 家 · 英维克、凯莱英、金健米业、石头科技、黄河旋风、*ST闻泰、浙江世宝、金螳螂

行业聚类

机械设备 · 9 家 · 最高 2 板 · 建设机械、中南文化、英维克、黄河旋风、智云股份、佳力图

医药生物 · 8 家 · 最高 5 板 · 汉森制药、凯莱英、海南海药、人民同泰、华森制药、冀衡医药

建筑装饰 · 8 家 · 最高 1 板 · 金螳螂、甘咨询、华阳国际、豪尔赛、镇海股份、东易日盛

基础化工 · 7 家 · 最高 1 板 · 金瑞矿业、红四方、圣达生物、六国化工、金能科技、元利科技

轻工制造 · 5 家 · 最高 2 板 · 海鸥住工、金富科技、青山纸业、大胜达、珠海中富

农林牧渔 · 3 家 · 最高 2 板 · 登海种业、金健米业、万向德农

商贸零售 · 3 家 · 最高 3 板 · 新华百货、汇通能源、上海九百

汽车 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 浙江世宝、秦安股份、湖南天雁

电力设备 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · 兆威机电、滨海能源、摩恩电气

电子 · 3 家 · 最高 1 板 · *ST闻泰、恒铭达、捷荣技术

公用事业 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 水发燃气、升达林业

家用电器 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 石头科技、康盛股份

社会服务 · 2 家 · 最高 1 板 · 凯撒旅业、华天酒店

通信 · 2 家 · 最高 3 板 · 楚天龙、特发信息

传媒 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 北投科技

国防军工 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 天秦装备

建筑材料 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · *ST顾地

房地产 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 我爱我家

有色金属 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 华阳新材

煤炭 · 1 家 · 最高 2 板 · 上海能源

纺织服饰 · 1 家 · 最高 4 板 · 深中华A

美容护理 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 青岛金王

钢铁 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · 常宝股份

非银金融 · 1 家 · 最高 1 板 · *ST九鼎

连续晋级与首板

汉森制药	002412.SZ	医药生物	+9.99%	5	12.36 亿	主板	94536	94536	0	5/5	1.17 亿
深中华A	000017.SZ	纺织服饰	+9.97%	4	4.97 亿	主板	92500	95812	1	4/4	1.23 亿
新华百货	600785.SH	商贸零售	+9.99%	3	7.84 亿	主板	95650	140008	1	3/3	3,204.65 万
楚天龙	003040.SZ	通信	+10.02%	3	6.78 亿	主板	93548	93548	0	3/3	1.61 亿
登海种业	002041.SZ	农林牧渔	+10.01%	2	9.31 亿	主板	93415	144427	3	3/6	814.35 万
上海能源	600508.SH	煤炭	+10.02%	2	4.23 亿	主板	93029	102544	1	2/2	3,375.20 万
建设机械	600984.SH	机械设备	+10.02%	2	6,832.42 万	主板	92502	92502	0	2/2	1.63 亿
中南文化	002445.SZ	机械设备	+10.09%	2	2,093.86 万	主板	92500	92500	0	2/2	2.33 亿
海鸥住工	002084.SZ	轻工制造	+10.13%	2	1,111.50 万	主板	92500	92500	0	2/2	1.96 亿
英维克	002837.SZ	机械设备	+10.01%	1	56.47 亿	主板	100548	111236	1	1/1	3.26 亿
凯莱英	002821.SZ	医药生物	+10.00%	1	28.07 亿	主板	130142	130142	0	1/1	1.58 亿
金健米业	600127.SH	农林牧渔	+10.05%	1	27.15 亿	主板	93154	145503	7	5/7	2,891.99 万
石头科技	688169.SH	家用电器	+20.00%	1	25.57 亿	科创板	95450	100320	3	1/1	9,814.99 万
黄河旋风	600172.SH	机械设备	+9.98%	1	24.50 亿	主板	135018	135530	1	1/1	1.86 亿
*ST闻泰	600745.SH	电子	+10.00%	1	15.43 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
浙江世宝	002703.SZ	汽车	+9.98%	1	11.60 亿	主板	95806	102206	5	1/1	6,281.56 万
金螳螂	002081.SZ	建筑装饰	+10.00%	1	11.46 亿	主板	95945	95945	0	5/10	1.68 亿
金富科技	003018.SZ	轻工制造	+10.00%	1	8.83 亿	主板	131336	131336	0	2/3	1.15 亿
特发信息	000070.SZ	通信	+9.99%	1	8.33 亿	主板	101548	101548	0	1/1	1.21 亿
水发燃气	603318.SH	公用事业	+9.99%	1	7.39 亿	主板	95639	100548	2	2/3	8,816.36 万

晋级未完成（最多16只）

中关村	000931.SZ	医药生物	-6.79%	6.92 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
哈森股份	603958.SH	纺织服饰	-1.55%	10.55 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
湖南白银	002716.SZ	有色金属	-6.02%	52.52 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
白银有色	601212.SH	有色金属	-1.79%	46.46 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
天洋新材	603330.SH	基础化工	-0.27%	12.95 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
东信和平	002017.SZ	通信	+6.07%	15.77 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST萃华	002731.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.16%	7,395.74 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
中谷物流	603565.SH	交通运输	-7.32%	10.26 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
众合科技	000925.SZ	机械设备	-6.69%	7.25 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
金龙羽	002882.SZ	电力设备	-6.65%	5.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
益佰制药	600594.SH	医药生物	-6.11%	3.44 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
市北高新	600604.SH	房地产	-6.07%	2.77 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
德新科技	603032.SH	电力设备	-4.25%	3.82 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
利君股份	002651.SZ	国防军工	-3.25%	3.03 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
同洲电子	002052.SZ	电力设备	-3.08%	2.27 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
华阳集团	002906.SZ	汽车	-2.90%	10.06 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—

跌停样本

养元饮品	603156.SH	食品饮料	-9.99%	9.47 亿	主板	—	134758	33	—	4,216.47 万
菲林格尔	603226.SH	轻工制造	-10.01%	1.55 亿	主板	—	150000	2	—	4,066.25 万
*ST萃华	002731.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.16%	7,395.74 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
ST佳缘	301117.SZ	计算机	-19.98%	2,818.84 万	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

大跌样本

ST佳缘	301117.SZ	计算机	-19.98%	2,818.84 万	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
艾罗能源	688717.SH	电力设备	-16.04%	7.72 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
世华科技	688093.SH	电子	-13.55%	1.93 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
中胤时尚	300901.SZ	纺织服饰	-12.83%	1.74 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST萃华	002731.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.16%	7,395.74 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
菲林格尔	603226.SH	轻工制造	-10.01%	1.55 亿	主板	—	150000	2	—	4,066.25 万
养元饮品	603156.SH	食品饮料	-9.99%	9.47 亿	主板	—	134758	33	—	4,216.47 万
康希通信	688653.SH	电子	-9.27%	4.37 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
盛达资源	000603.SZ	有色金属	-9.01%	35.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
国城矿业	000688.SZ	有色金属	-8.64%	9.92 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
严牌股份	301081.SZ	环保	-8.50%	1.78 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
博汇股份	300839.SZ	石油石化	-8.14%	4.20 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

涨幅居前

高凯技术	688835.SH	机械设备	+282.99%	0	34.82 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
智云股份	300097.SZ	机械设备	+20.05%	1	4.54 亿	创业板	130948	130948	0	1/1	3,068.72 万
石头科技	688169.SH	家用电器	+20.00%	1	25.57 亿	科创板	95450	100320	3	1/1	9,814.99 万
透景生命	300642.SZ	医药生物	+20.00%	1	1.79 亿	创业板	93324	93324	0	1/1	5,380.02 万
天秦装备	300922.SZ	国防军工	+19.99%	1	3.31 亿	创业板	130721	130721	0	1/1	4,724.65 万
西点药业	301130.SZ	医药生物	+17.01%	0	8.04 亿	创业板	101151	—	3	0/0	—
新晨科技	300542.SZ	计算机	+16.74%	0	6.54 亿	创业板	103436	—	4	0/0	—
申菱环境	301018.SZ	机械设备	+16.17%	0	33.81 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
福瑞医科	300049.SZ	医药生物	+15.78%	0	8.13 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
国安达	300902.SZ	机械设备	+14.91%	0	1.70 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
双一科技	300690.SZ	电力设备	+14.57%	0	3.98 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
万讯自控	300112.SZ	机械设备	+14.09%	0	5.91 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

跌幅居前

ST佳缘	301117.SZ	计算机	-19.98%	2,818.84 万	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
艾罗能源	688717.SH	电力设备	-16.04%	7.72 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
世华科技	688093.SH	电子	-13.55%	1.93 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
中胤时尚	300901.SZ	纺织服饰	-12.83%	1.74 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
*ST萃华	002731.SZ	纺织服饰	-10.16%	7,395.74 万	主板	—	—	—	—	—
菲林格尔	603226.SH	轻工制造	-10.01%	1.55 亿	主板	—	150000	2	—	4,066.25 万
养元饮品	603156.SH	食品饮料	-9.99%	9.47 亿	主板	—	134758	33	—	4,216.47 万
康希通信	688653.SH	电子	-9.27%	4.37 亿	科创板	—	—	—	—	—
盛达资源	000603.SZ	有色金属	-9.01%	35.13 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
国城矿业	000688.SZ	有色金属	-8.64%	9.92 亿	主板	—	—	—	—	—
严牌股份	301081.SZ	环保	-8.50%	1.78 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—
博汇股份	300839.SZ	石油石化	-8.14%	4.20 亿	创业板	—	—	—	—	—

上市板分层

主板	3190	+1.48%	77.77%	54.48%	+1.57%
创业板	1402	+1.85%	78.82%	57.06%	+2.74%
科创板	616	+1.31%	61.85%	49.68%	+1.80%
北交所	338	+1.08%	78.99%	29.59%	+1.36%

市值分层

小盘	2774	+2.14%	86.19%	33.26 亿
中盘	1663	+1.29%	74.68%	92.14 亿
大盘	832	+0.55%	56.73%	281.4 亿
超大盘	277	-0.13%	46.57%	1,321.1 亿

成分快照日期：2026-10-05。官方收益与成员等权交叉核对分开显示；资金流为供应商订单分类代理，不等于真实主体资金。

方向矩阵

创新药	低位修复	281/280	+2.36%	-2.85%	+8.20%	+2.39%	-2.85%	+8.11%	+0.03%	82.14%	45.36%	1,043.6 亿	5.66%	40.00%	+0.82%	5	0	28.96 亿	100.00%
文化传媒	低位修复	197/197	+2.21%	-1.64%	+7.18%	+2.21%	-1.70%	+6.82%	+0.00%	89.85%	41.62%	380.7 亿	2.06%	10.00%	+0.68%	3	0	11.56 亿	100.00%
液冷服务器	低位修复	229/229	+1.92%	-3.87%	+10.57%	+1.91%	-3.85%	+10.16%	-0.01%	75.11%	55.02%	2,169.5 亿	11.76%	20.00%	+0.39%	8	0	65.97 亿	100.00%
减速器	低位修复	139/139	+1.60%	-5.56%	+8.68%	+1.60%	-5.58%	+8.26%	-0.00%	80.58%	40.29%	350.2 亿	1.90%	10.00%	+0.07%	1	0	2.86 亿	100.00%
物理AI	低位修复	463/463	+1.42%	-5.73%	+8.73%	+1.41%	-5.68%	+8.45%	-0.01%	74.73%	42.76%	2,264.6 亿	12.28%	10.00%	-0.11%	4	0	51.19 亿	100.00%
商业航天	低位修复	507/507	+1.27%	-5.71%	+7.36%	+1.26%	-5.62%	+7.17%	-0.01%	76.53%	36.69%	2,208.9 亿	11.98%	5.00%	-0.26%	0	1	8,436.62 万	100.00%
CPO	低位修复	212/212	+0.94%	-6.63%	+15.20%	+0.99%	-6.66%	+14.76%	+0.06%	66.51%	60.85%	3,266.0 亿	17.71%	5.00%	-0.60%	2	0	36.52 亿	100.00%
金属新材料	低位修复	34/34	+0.88%	-4.99%	+9.67%	+0.88%	-4.90%	+9.37%	+0.00%	70.59%	41.18%	71.34 亿	0.39%	10.00%	-0.65%	0	0	2,173.80 万	100.00%
PCB	低位修复	236/234	+0.67%	-6.76%	+12.34%	+0.67%	-6.85%	+12.13%	+0.00%	62.39%	59.40%	1,874.0 亿	10.16%	10.00%	-0.87%	0	0	30.50 亿	100.00%
酿酒	低位修复	31/30	+0.12%	-1.29%	+7.48%	+0.76%	-1.31%	+3.90%	+0.63%	73.33%	36.67%	81.65 亿	0.44%	5.00%	-1.41%	0	0	-1.98 亿	100.00%
MLCC	低位修复	35/35	+0.10%	-9.51%	—	+0.10%	-9.53%	+10.85%	+0.00%	60.00%	31.43%	356.5 亿	1.93%	5.00%	-1.43%	0	0	-4.88 亿	100.00%
玻璃基板	低位修复	57/57	+0.08%	-8.01%	+7.55%	+0.13%	-7.81%	+7.67%	+0.05%	52.63%	52.63%	598.5 亿	3.25%	5.00%	-1.45%	1	0	-9.18 亿	100.00%
先进封装	低位修复	204/204	+0.01%	-8.19%	+8.76%	+0.01%	-8.24%	+8.58%	+0.00%	47.06%	50.00%	2,224.9 亿	12.06%	5.00%	-1.53%	1	0	-1.38 亿	100.00%
存储芯片	趋势转弱	206/205	-0.13%	-8.70%	+7.70%	+1.25%	-8.74%	+7.52%	+1.38%	45.37%	47.32%	2,576.1 亿	13.97%	5.00%	-1.67%	3	0	6.50 亿	100.00%
光刻胶	趋势转弱	80/80	-0.42%	-7.70%	+8.81%	-0.46%	-7.76%	+8.22%	-0.05%	47.50%	46.25%	365.0 亿	1.98%	10.00%	-1.95%	0	0	-5.24 亿	100.00%
电子化学品	趋势转弱	43/43	-0.45%	-10.97%	+8.17%	-0.45%	-11.02%	+8.00%	+0.00%	37.21%	34.88%	346.2 亿	1.88%	5.00%	-1.98%	0	0	4,185.37 万	100.00%

领涨与领跌，回到具体成员

创新药 · 低位修复

领涨：透景生命（300642.SZ）+20.00%、西点药业（301130.SZ）+17.01%、盟科药业（688373.SH）+12.40%

领跌：中关村（000931.SZ）-6.79%、益佰制药（600594.SH）-6.11%、华兰股份（301093.SZ）-3.93%

文化传媒 · 低位修复

领涨：中南文化（002445.SZ）+10.09%、华阳国际（002949.SZ）+9.99%、北投科技（600936.SH）+9.94%

领跌：盛达资源（000603.SZ）-9.01%、星网锐捷（002396.SZ）-3.87%、*ST中岩（002542.SZ）-3.70%

液冷服务器 · 低位修复

领涨：申菱环境（301018.SZ）+16.17%、同飞股份（300990.SZ）+13.56%、佳力图（603912.SH）+10.06%

领跌：博汇股份（300839.SZ）-8.14%、永兴材料（002756.SZ）-6.51%、阿莱德（301419.SZ）-5.11%

减速器 · 低位修复

领涨：兆威机电（003021.SZ）+10.01%、瑜欣电子（301107.SZ）+7.40%、巨一科技（688162.SH）+6.38%

领跌：联合动力（301656.SZ）-6.76%、宇环数控（002903.SZ）-5.02%、万凯新材（301216.SZ）-4.86%

物理AI · 低位修复

领涨：双一科技（300690.SZ）+14.57%、拓斯达（300607.SZ）+10.23%、金钟股份（301133.SZ）+10.22%

领跌：阿莱德（301419.SZ）-5.11%、万凯新材（301216.SZ）-4.86%、扬杰科技（300373.SZ）-4.65%

商业航天 · 低位修复

领涨：新晨科技（300542.SZ）+16.74%、长盈通（688143.SH）+12.37%、春晖智控（300943.SZ）+10.02%

领跌：ST佳缘（301117.SZ）-19.98%、众合科技（000925.SZ）-6.69%、华曙高科（688433.SH）-6.51%

CPO · 低位修复

领涨：长盈通（688143.SH）+12.37%、拓斯达（300607.SZ）+10.23%、青山纸业（600103.SH）+10.14%

领跌：阿莱德（301419.SZ）-5.11%、嘉元科技（688388.SH）-4.94%、中瓷电子（003031.SZ）-4.90%

金属新材料 · 低位修复

领涨：中科磁业（301141.SZ）+6.60%、英洛华（000795.SZ）+5.37%、华达新材（605158.SH）+4.50%

领跌：龙磁科技（300835.SZ）-2.72%、悦安新材（688786.SH）-2.32%、金力永磁（300748.SZ）-2.31%

PCB · 低位修复

领涨：迅捷兴（688655.SH）+9.43%、惠柏新材（301555.SZ）+6.66%、强瑞技术（301128.SZ）+6.50%

领跌：世华科技（688093.SH）-13.55%、帝尔激光（300776.SZ）-5.65%、嘉元科技（688388.SH）-4.94%

酿酒 · 低位修复

领涨：*ST尼雅（600084.SH）+3.19%、金枫酒业（600616.SH）+2.82%、顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）+2.55%

领跌：ST椰岛（600238.SH）-3.19%、会稽山（601579.SH）-2.52%、泸州老窖（000568.SZ）-0.91%

MLCC · 低位修复

领涨：雅创电子（301099.SZ）+6.22%、裕兴股份（300305.SZ）+2.68%、凯盛科技（600552.SH）+1.83%

领跌：昀冢科技（688260.SH）-2.88%、厦门钨业（600549.SH）-2.86%、火炬电子（603678.SH）-2.53%

玻璃基板 · 低位修复

领涨：金瑞矿业（600714.SH）+10.01%、鸿利智汇（300219.SZ）+2.95%、瑞丰光电（300241.SZ）+2.68%

领跌：帝尔激光（300776.SZ）-5.65%、晶方科技（603005.SH）-4.17%、精测电子（300567.SZ）-3.47%

先进封装 · 低位修复

领涨：*ST闻泰（600745.SH）+10.00%、光智科技（300489.SZ）+7.51%、灿瑞科技（688061.SH）+6.15%

领跌：众合科技（000925.SZ）-6.69%、兴福电子（688545.SH）-5.94%、帝尔激光（300776.SZ）-5.65%

存储芯片 · 趋势转弱

领涨：高凯技术（688835.SH）+282.99%、汇通能源（600605.SH）+10.02%、园林股份（605303.SH）+10.01%

领跌：天华新能（300390.SZ）-7.62%、有研硅（688432.SH）-6.36%、江丰电子（300666.SZ）-5.95%

光刻胶 · 趋势转弱

领涨：百川股份（002455.SZ）+6.79%、聚光科技（300203.SZ）+5.10%、航天智造（300446.SZ）+2.90%

领跌：世华科技（688093.SH）-13.55%、兴福电子（688545.SH）-5.94%、理奇智能（301599.SZ）-4.69%

电子化学品 · 趋势转弱

领涨：天通股份（600330.SH）+5.14%、思泉新材（301489.SZ）+3.51%、方邦股份（688020.SH）+3.12%

领跌：兴福电子（688545.SH）-5.94%、安集科技（688019.SH）-3.60%、龙辰科技（920161.BJ）-3.38%

ETF轮动

份额是变动记录；缺记录不代表份额不变，分组可以重叠。

ETF八组

医药健康	52	+2.00%	+1.83%	-3.40%	+4.14%	51.76 亿	100.00%	22/18	银华中证创新药产业ETF · +1.86%
消费	47	+0.60%	+1.03%	-1.76%	-0.05%	14.86 亿	100.00%	8/19	华夏国证消费电子主题ETF · -1.84%
大盘宽基	83	-0.08%	-0.24%	-3.01%	-0.21%	89.71 亿	100.00%	27/14	华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF · +1.02%
红利防御	98	-0.20%	+0.23%	+0.17%	+0.37%	44.72 亿	100.00%	21/36	华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动ETF · +0.07%
金融地产	50	-0.23%	-0.27%	-1.10%	-1.05%	47.99 亿	100.00%	6/24	国泰中证全指证券公司ETF · -0.05%
中小盘宽基	140	-0.35%	-0.15%	-5.53%	+3.87%	287.4 亿	100.00%	57/14	易方达创业板ETF · +3.22%
AI与半导体	129	-1.06%	+0.56%	-10.95%	-1.59%	350.4 亿	100.00%	73/24	华夏上证科创板半导体材料设备主题ETF · +2.87%
资源周期	60	-2.24%	-2.17%	-1.83%	+7.05%	63.36 亿	100.00%	15/25	南方中证申万有色金属ETF · -0.58%

主题八篮子 · 申万行业样本数加权

医药健康	美容护理、医药生物	536	+2.45%	-2.13%	+9.10%	85.07%	50.56%	8.06%	9	0
大消费	商贸零售、农林牧渔、社会服务、家用电器、食品饮料	528	+2.18%	-1.46%	+9.29%	85.98%	61.17%	5.59%	10	1
基建链	建筑装饰、建筑材料	231	+1.83%	-0.70%	+9.07%	84.42%	56.28%	2.36%	9	0
高端制造	机械设备、汽车、国防军工、电力设备	1490	+1.66%	-3.57%	+8.27%	76.58%	49.26%	20.22%	16	0
AI硬件与数字经济	计算机、通信、电子	1002	+1.23%	-5.46%	+9.37%	71.36%	48.90%	37.86%	5	1
金融地产	房地产、非银金融、银行	216	+1.21%	+0.60%	+4.16%	68.52%	51.85%	4.06%	2	0
公用防御	环保、交通运输、公用事业	401	+1.10%	-0.44%	+4.97%	76.06%	51.62%	3.72%	2	0
资源周期	钢铁、基础化工、石油石化、煤炭、有色金属	716	+0.54%	-1.74%	+9.79%	63.69%	60.75%	15.08%	10	0

近五个交易日

2026-08-19	27.1	35.8	8.10%	2.5300 万亿	38	3
2026-08-20	63.1	50.9	73.92%	2.0939 万亿	84	4
2026-08-21	53.7	45.7	45.19%	1.8923 万亿	58	3
2026-08-24	41.8	47.2	26.33%	2.0212 万亿	48	4
2026-08-25	62.5	63.9	76.34%	1.8443 万亿	70	5

边际变化

成交额：收缩 · -8.75%

上涨覆盖：扩大 · +50.01%

涨停家数：扩张 · 22

最高连板：抬升 · 1

五日成交中位：2.0212 万亿 · 温度区间：27.1–63.1 · 方向覆盖 5/5。

持续出现

方向：文化传媒 4次、创新药 3次、CPO 2次、液冷服务器 2次、酿酒 2次、MLCC 1次

行业：煤炭 2次、美容护理 2次、通信 2次、银行 2次、交通运输 1次、农林牧渔 1次

传导链

量能与广度 · 成交额较前日-8.8%，上涨覆盖76.3%，五日成交中位20212.2亿元。

方向承接 · 创新药当日收益+2.36%；方向数据覆盖5/5。

涨停聚类 · 机械设备涨停9家，最高2板。

负反馈 · 跌停4家，晋级未完成展示16家（展示名单，非全市场总数）。

下一交易日：乐观与悲观并列

量能承接 · 仍待确认

确认：成交维持或高于近五日中位 20212.2亿元

失效：放量冲高后快速回落，且低于五日中位

方向延续 · 创新药

确认：创新药继续居前且内部上涨覆盖不收窄

失效：龙头断板、居前方向跌出前三且负反馈扩散

前排晋级 · 16.7%

确认：晋级率回升、最高板不压缩，炸板率下降

失效：晋级率继续下滑，最高板压缩且掉队增多

市场广度 · 上涨覆盖76.3%

确认：上涨覆盖维持且中位数同步改善

失效：指数上涨但中位数、上涨覆盖明显回落

六十日观察窗口

当前有 40 个交易日摘要；缺失日期不填造。分别显示状态与覆盖、成交额及涨跌停生态，避免不同量纲混在同一坐标轴。

TuShare日频；状态分值不代表概率或交易建议。

成交额单位：亿元。

家数与连板高度使用独立坐标轴。

趋势原始值

2026-07-01	70.6	80.8	78.55%	3.6828 万亿	226	7
2026-07-02	35.5	69.9	40.22%	3.4739 万亿	159	5
2026-07-03	53.9	71.7	68.96%	3.2053 万亿	162	5
2026-07-06	35.5	50.7	34.00%	3.1124 万亿	73	6
2026-07-07	17.7	33.7	12.56%	2.5985 万亿	34	6
2026-07-08	31.9	62.2	28.87%	2.5826 万亿	58	7
2026-07-09	62.4	60.7	45.04%	2.9323 万亿	75	8
2026-07-10	58	58.7	68.32%	3.4107 万亿	95	3
2026-07-13	10.8	33.3	14.50%	2.8347 万亿	33	4
2026-07-14	62.4	70.4	76.23%	2.7195 万亿	89	5
2026-07-15	41.5	57.5	60.65%	2.5874 万亿	74	4
2026-07-16	33.7	51.9	45.24%	2.4189 万亿	48	5
2026-07-17	24.8	41.5	8.73%	2.6716 万亿	35	5
2026-07-20	34.8	44.8	31.50%	2.7181 万亿	55	3
2026-07-21	66.2	62.5	56.24%	2.9742 万亿	121	4
2026-07-22	29.2	47.3	27.69%	2.6686 万亿	48	5
2026-07-23	60.4	82.5	77.09%	2.2095 万亿	129	6
2026-07-24	16.4	37.6	10.04%	1.9445 万亿	43	4
2026-07-27	80.7	74.1	94.06%	2.0887 万亿	121	5
2026-07-28	36.8	57	47.12%	2.0391 万亿	68	6
2026-07-29	76.5	67.2	76.99%	2.3117 万亿	86	7
2026-07-30	34.8	52.9	31.98%	2.3584 万亿	56	8
2026-07-31	84.7	84	84.86%	2.5599 万亿	103	9
2026-08-03	56.7	63.7	72.44%	2.0111 万亿	83	6
2026-08-04	82.3	89.5	65.87%	2.2284 万亿	141	7
2026-08-05	84.1	90	67.34%	2.6799 万亿	105	8
2026-08-06	62.4	84	50.41%	2.5475 万亿	83	10
2026-08-07	76	67	51.60%	2.6834 万亿	75	4
2026-08-10	71.3	74.4	73.46%	2.5387 万亿	103	5
2026-08-11	46.3	62.7	29.16%	2.3356 万亿	60	6
2026-08-12	76.2	92.4	74.53%	2.1672 万亿	97	7
2026-08-13	53.4	61.8	20.63%	2.5680 万亿	62	5
2026-08-14	56.3	55	43.32%	2.1566 万亿	64	5
2026-08-17	89	84.8	78.26%	2.4025 万亿	110	4
2026-08-18	56.6	62.7	38.29%	2.4198 万亿	81	4
2026-08-19	27.1	35.8	8.10%	2.5300 万亿	38	3
2026-08-20	63.1	50.9	73.92%	2.0939 万亿	84	4
2026-08-21	53.7	45.7	45.19%	1.8923 万亿	58	3
2026-08-24	41.8	47.2	26.33%	2.0212 万亿	48	4
2026-08-25	62.5	63.9	76.34%	1.8443 万亿	70	5

情绪九维 63.9

连板高度10.71
10.71
输入与公式
5 板
min(最高连板 / 7, 1) × 15
涨停家数8.4
8.4
输入与公式
70 家
min(涨停家数 / 100, 1) × 12
封板成功率10.08
10.08
输入与公式
0.7142857142857143 比例
min(封板率 / 0.85, 1) × 12
前日晋级率6.67
6.67
输入与公式
0.16666666666666666 比例
min(晋级率 / 0.30, 1) × 12
前日涨停溢价6.68
6.68
输入与公式
0.007826500000000002 收益率
clip((溢价 + 0.02) / 0.05, 0, 1) × 12
亏钱效应4.5
4.5
输入与公式
{"limitDown":4,"largeLoss":18} 家
(1 − min(跌停 / 10, 1)) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌逾7% / 30, 1)) × 4.5
上涨广度9
9
输入与公式
0.7634331049404977 比例
min(advanceShare / 0.60, 1) × 9
涨跌停对比6.19
6.19
输入与公式
{"limitUp":70,"limitDown":4} 家
min(涨停 / 80, 1) × 4.5 + (1 − min(跌停 / 8, 1)) × 4.5
市场量能1.72
1.72
输入与公式
0.7857998460786793 倍
clip((倍数 − 0.70) / 0.50, 0, 1) × 10

市场风格分布

高位加速	143	2.58%	+7.76%	+7.02%
趋势延续	277	4.99%	+3.12%	+2.61%
低位修复	1911	34.46%	+1.94%	+1.55%
中间状态	3215	57.97%	+0.88%	+1.02%

涨停晋级

昨日涨停 48 家 · 今日晋级 8 家 · 晋级率 16.67%

晋级名单

汉森制药	002412.SZ	医药生物	5	+9.99%
深中华A	000017.SZ	纺织服饰	4	+9.97%
新华百货	600785.SH	商贸零售	3	+9.99%
楚天龙	003040.SZ	通信	3	+10.02%
登海种业	002041.SZ	农林牧渔	2	+10.01%
上海能源	600508.SH	煤炭	2	+10.02%
建设机械	600984.SH	机械设备	2	+10.02%
中南文化	002445.SZ	机械设备	2	+10.09%
海鸥住工	002084.SZ	轻工制造	2	+10.13%
英维克	002837.SZ	机械设备	1	+10.01%
凯莱英	002821.SZ	医药生物	1	+10.00%
金健米业	600127.SH	农林牧渔	1	+10.05%
石头科技	688169.SH	家用电器	1	+20.00%
黄河旋风	600172.SH	机械设备	1	+9.98%
*ST闻泰	600745.SH	电子	1	+10.00%
浙江世宝	002703.SZ	汽车	1	+9.98%
金螳螂	002081.SZ	建筑装饰	1	+10.00%
金富科技	003018.SZ	轻工制造	1	+10.00%
特发信息	000070.SZ	通信	1	+9.99%
水发燃气	603318.SH	公用事业	1	+9.99%

事件日历

事件是可核对的观察条件，不从政策名称推导市场结论。

2026-06-01–2026-11-30 · 工信部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划实施期 · 已确认

工业和信息化部人工智能科技伦理审查与服务先导计划通知 →

确认条件

工信部官方通知明确先导计划实施周期为2026年6月1日至11月30日；本轮在未来窗口内观察官方试点、标准、风险案例和工具进展，不从政策名称直接推导产业或市场结论。

失效条件

官方通知被修订、取消或调整实施期；截至实施期结束仍无官方试点、标准、案例或服务结果；或相关应用信息无法由官方文件、企业披露和场景数据交叉验证。

数据、算法、模型和垂直应用的伦理审查流程是否形成可复用制度
制造、金融、医疗等场景的试点参与、风险案例和服务工具进展
人工智能标准、合规服务与企业应用落地之间的时间差

A股观察：AI治理与合规实施观察、工业AI、具身智能应用验证观察、数据、算法、模型服务生态观察

2026-09-01–2026-09-30 · 工信部人工智能终端重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年9月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年9月和广东省，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件，并核对产品、客户和应用证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动只有方向性表述而没有可验证的对接、产品或场景信息。

人工智能终端应用场景
终端、模型与芯片协同
企业对接和产品验证信息

A股观察：AI终端观察、端侧芯片与模组观察、软件与应用落地观察

2026-09-01–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局2025年科技经费投入统计公报与中国创新指数（预计9—10月） · 待核实

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

国家统计局日程注记仅给出2026年9—10月预计发布时间，当前没有具体日期；待官方发布页出现日期和数据后核对研发投入、创新产出及产业分项。

失效条件

官方日程取消或改期；或截至10月31日没有正式发布，或数据口径不能与产业和研发指标复核。

研发投入与创新产出
高技术产业和区域创新结构
正式发布日期与数据口径

A股观察：科技政策与创新投入观察、AI、半导体和先进制造观察、成长风格与产业数据验证观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 欧洲央行9月非货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历明确9月30日为非货币政策会议；不把它当作利率决议，只有出现官方公告及跨资产可复核变化时才记录研究线索。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或没有公开信息，且欧元、利率、流动性和风险偏好数据不能形成独立验证。

官方会议公告与操作信息
欧元区流动性和金融条件线索
与货币政策会议的增量信息区分

A股观察：全球流动性观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 金融产品网络营销管理办法施行 · 已确认

八部门金融产品网络营销管理办法公告 →

确认条件

八部门官方公告明确《金融产品网络营销管理办法》自2026年9月30日起施行。规则可能通过平台责任、营销流程、信息披露和系统合规改造影响金融信息服务观察；只核对正式实施口径、监管问答/案例、企业公告与业务数据，不从施行日直接推导个股或行情结论。

失效条件

办法被延期、修订、废止或适用范围发生实质改变；实施后没有可核验的执行口径、监管案例或企业系统/业务变化；或这些证据与原观察传导链相互冲突。

金融产品网络营销主体、平台责任、信息披露和风控要求的执行口径
金融机构、互联网平台和技术服务商的系统改造、合规投入与业务调整
实施后的监管问答、执法案例、企业公告和业务数据是否形成连续证据

A股观察：金融信息服务与网络营销合规观察、金融机构数字化、数据治理和风控系统观察、互联网平台金融业务边界与技术服务观察

2026-09-30–2026-09-30 · 国家统计局9月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明9月30日；同时检查PMI分项、商品价格、行业宽度和成交结构。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或PMI信号只体现在总指数，关键分项和市场结构不支持同一观察问题。

制造业生产与新订单
出口订单与供应商配送
价格与库存变化

A股观察：工业制造观察、出口链与供应链观察、原材料价格观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-01 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合主要意见 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合主要意见于10月1日公布；核对文本与9月会合声明及汇率/利率变化。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或主要意见与会合声明、市场数据之间没有可复核关系。

政策委员会主要意见
通胀预期与政策正常化线索
日元与亚洲资产反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-07 · 沪深北交易所2026年国庆节休市安排 · 已确认

沪深北交易所2026年休市安排 →

确认条件

北交所官方公告明确10月1—7日休市、10月8日起开市，沪深安排交叉一致；按真实交易日复核假期前后指标。

失效条件

交易所官方通知被修订，或沪深北交易所的休市/清算安排出现差异。

国庆休市区间
节前节后成交和行业宽度
假期期间海外市场信息累积

A股观察：交易节奏观察、流动性与跳空风险观察、跨市场信息传导观察

2026-10-01–2026-10-31 · 工信部XR智能眼镜重点行业专场对接活动（官方计划于2026年10月） · 待核实

工业和信息化部重点行业专场对接活动表 →

确认条件

工信部官方计划给出2026年10月及杭州、北京地点，但没有具体日期；待官方通知、议程或结果文件并检查企业层证据。

失效条件

工信部通知取消、改期、改为其他月份，或活动没有可核验的产品、客户、出货或应用信息。

XR眼镜产品与交互形态
光学、显示、传感与算力配套
终端企业对接和出货验证

A股观察：智能眼镜观察、显示与光学器件观察、端侧算力与传感器观察

2026-10-07–2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve公布9月FOMC会议纪要 · 已确认

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方货币政策页明确10月7日发布9月15—16日FOMC会议纪要；核对纪要对通胀、就业、资产负债表和政策路径的措辞，并与美元、美债和风险偏好数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方页面改期或未发布；或纪要信息未改变政策预期，且美元、美债、黄金与A股相关观察之间没有可复核的同步变化。

会议内部政策分歧
通胀与就业判断
利率预期与美元利率反应

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-12–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West Standards Meetings 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历列明会议为10月12—15日；只核对公开议程、技术文件和企业验证，不从会议名称推导行情。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或没有公开技术文件、议程或企业可验证信息。

半导体标准与接口议题
制造、设备和材料协同
标准讨论是否形成公开技术或供应链信号

A股观察：半导体设备材料观察、先进制造标准观察、供应链兼容性观察

2026-10-13–2026-10-15 · SEMICON West 2026 · 已确认

SEMI全球半导体活动日历 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确SEMICON West 2026为10月13—15日；核对展商、产品、资本开支、客户和订单证据。

失效条件

官方日历改期或取消；或只有展会规模和叙事，没有产品、客户、资本开支或订单证据。

设备、材料与制造技术
AI算力相关资本开支
客户、产品和供应链公开信号

A股观察：半导体设备观察、先进封装与测试观察、硅光与AI算力链观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · Federal Reserve公布2026年10月Beige Book · 已确认

Federal Reserve Board 2026年10月官方日历 →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方2026年10月日历明确10月14日14:00发布Beige Book；发布后核对区域调查与工业、就业、通胀和信贷数据的一致性，不把定性反馈直接转成A股结论。

失效条件

Federal Reserve官方日历改期或撤回；或报告与可用宏观数据无法交叉验证，未形成可重复的区域活动、价格或信贷信号。

各地区企业活动、价格、就业与信贷变化
制造业和投资活动的区域差异
Beige Book定性反馈与10月FOMC前后的数据验证

A股观察：全球需求与制造业景气观察、海外金融条件观察、A股外部宏观传导观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-14 · 国家统计局9月CPI与PPI月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月14日；核对CPI、核心CPI、PPI分项与前月变化，并检查行业传导证据。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或价格变化仅为单月噪声，无法由分项、工业数据或后续观察验证。

核心通胀与服务价格
工业品价格与成本
价格信号的持续性

A股观察：消费价格观察、资源与制造成本观察、名义增长观察

2026-10-14–2026-10-15 · SEMI Test Vision Symposium 2026 · 已确认

SEMI Events Calendar →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动日历明确Test Vision Symposium 2026于2026年10月14—15日在旧金山举行；只观察测试、计量、机器视觉和可靠性议程，以及可由厂商资料、客户验证、产品发布或后续公司披露交叉核对的证据。

失效条件

SEMI官方日历改期或取消；或活动只有泛化主题，没有可复核的技术议程、产品演示、客户验证、订单或后续公司披露。

晶圆、封装测试与机器视觉检测技术
AI在半导体检测、计量和可靠性中的应用
设备厂商议程与客户、验证和产品证据

A股观察：半导体测试设备观察、机器视觉与检测观察、先进封装与可靠性验证观察

2026-10-19–2026-10-19 · 国家统计局三季度国民经济运行与工业、投资、消费数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月19日；按季度总量和分项核对，并观察行业宽度、成交与价格是否出现可复核的结构变化。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或季度总量、分项与行业结构之间缺少一致证据。

季度经济增长与结构
工业、投资、地产、零售分项
居民收入与消费倾向

A股观察：顺周期观察、地产与投资链观察、内需与消费观察

2026-10-20–2026-10-20 · 国家统计局三季度主要行业增加值初步核算报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月20日；核对行业增加值与前一日国民经济数据的口径衔接，并检查行业宽度是否提供独立支持。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或数据口径、行业分组变化使跨期比较不可复核。

主要行业增加值
产业结构变化
季度数据与月度数据衔接

A股观察：行业景气结构观察、制造业与服务业分化观察、周期位置观察

2026-10-21–2026-10-21 · NVIDIA在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲 · 已确认

NVIDIA 2027财年第二季度业绩会官方文字记录 →

确认条件

NVIDIA官方业绩会文字记录明确其将于2026年10月21日在GTC Berlin发表主题演讲。产品或生态信息可能通过开发者采用、客户部署、订单交付和供应链数据传导至A股观察结构；只核对官方议程/演讲、客户公告和后续经营数据，不从会议名称直接推导行情。

失效条件

官方活动被取消、改期或没有可归因的公开信息；只有产品叙事而缺少客户部署、订单、收入或交付证据；或后续数据无法支持原观察传导链。

AI基础设施、机器人/物理AI和企业部署的产品与开发者信息
欧洲客户、云服务商、工业软件和机器人生态的合作或应用证据
主题演讲后的产品发布、客户公告、订单/收入和供应链数据是否一致

A股观察：AI算力与软件生态观察、机器人、工业AI和物理AI应用观察、半导体、服务器网络和先进封装供应链观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 欧洲央行公布2026年9月欧元区货币发展数据 · 已确认

ECB欧元区货币发展数据发布日历 →

确认条件

ECB官方统计日历明确2026年10月27日10:00 CET发布参考期为2026年9月的欧元区货币发展数据（BSI）；需以正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元和A股可观测数据进行交叉验证。

失效条件

ECB官方日历改期、取消或更换数据集；或正式分项、欧洲利率、欧元与A股观察之间没有可复核的金融条件传导证据。

欧元区货币与信贷增速及信贷投向
银行融资条件与利率传导
数据与10月ECB政策会议和全球风险偏好的交叉变化

A股观察：全球流动性与汇率观察、外部利率敏感资产观察、跨市场金融条件观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-28 · 2026年10月FOMC会议 · 已确认

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar →

确认条件

Federal Reserve官方会议日历列明10月27—28日；核对声明、记者会和跨资产反应，不从会议名称直接推导行业结论。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策信息没有改变利率预期且跨资产反应不一致。

政策利率与再投资安排
通胀、就业和增长判断
美元、美债与全球风险偏好

A股观察：科技估值观察、黄金与有色观察、人民币资产风险偏好观察

2026-10-27–2026-10-27 · 国家统计局1—9月规模以上工业企业利润数据发布 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月27日；检查利润、营收、成本及行业分项，并与价格和产量数据交叉验证。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或利润变化无法在成本、价格、产量和行业分项中得到支持。

工业利润与营收
成本和利润率
行业盈利扩散

A股观察：工业盈利观察、中游制造观察、资源品与设备链观察

2026-10-28–2026-10-29 · 欧洲央行10月管理委员会货币政策会议 · 已确认

European Central Bank Governing Council calendar →

确认条件

ECB官方日历列明10月28—29日货币政策会议及发布会；核对政策声明与跨资产价格反应。

失效条件

官方日历改期；或政策结果和跨资产反应明显背离，无法形成可验证的全球金融条件线索。

利率与再投资政策
通胀与增长评估
欧元区金融条件

A股观察：全球利率与估值观察、外需与汇率观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-29–2026-10-30 · 日本银行10月金融政策决定会合 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方2026年会合表列明10月29—30日；核对政策声明、展望报告和市场反应。

失效条件

官方会合表改期；或政策结果、汇率、利率和风险偏好数据无法互相验证。

利率与收益率曲线政策
经济与物价展望
日元、日债与亚洲流动性

A股观察：全球利率观察、汇率与外需观察、风险偏好观察

2026-10-31–2026-10-31 · 国家统计局10月采购经理指数月度报告 · 已确认

国家统计局2026年主要统计信息发布日程 →

确认条件

官方日程列明10月31日；核对PMI关键分项与行业宽度、成交和价格的同步性。

失效条件

官方日程更正或延期；或总指数变化没有分项和行业数据支持。

制造业景气与订单
生产、库存与价格
企业规模分化

A股观察：制造业景气观察、工业品价格观察、周期行业扩散观察

2026-11-01–2026-11-04 · SEMI International Trade Partners Conference（ITPC）2026 · 已确认

SEMI ITPC 2026官方活动页 →

确认条件

SEMI官方活动页明确ITPC 2026于2026年11月1日至4日在夏威夷举行，并列出Markets & Applications、Technology、Trade & Politics等议题；研究只核对正式议程、公司披露、订单/产能/交付和产业数据，不把高管发言直接转成市场结论。

失效条件

SEMI官方活动页改期、取消或议程实质变更；活动只有主题叙事而没有可复核的公司披露、产业数据或后续落地；或跨来源信息彼此冲突且无法解释。

全球半导体供应链高管对AI需求、产能投资和关键基础设施的判断
贸易、地缘政治、供应链韧性与跨区域合作议题
会议观点能否与晶圆厂、设备材料商的资本开支、订单和交付披露相互验证

A股观察：AI算力与半导体设备材料观察、先进封装、测试与关键零部件观察、全球供应链与国产替代验证观察

2026-11-05–2026-11-05 · 日本银行公布9月金融政策决定会合议事要旨 · 已确认

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings →

确认条件

日本银行官方表列明9月会合议事要旨于11月5日公布；核对其相对主要意见和政策声明的新增信息。

失效条件

官方发布时间改期或未发布；或文本无法提供可复核的政策条件变化。

委员会讨论细节
风险平衡与政策条件
日元和亚洲利率反应

A股观察：亚洲利率观察、汇率与外需观察、全球风险偏好观察

假设按归档日投影，隐藏之后结算的结果；事件日历为当前维护资料。

判断也要接受检验

未确认判断单独统计，证据不足单列；分母为已结算条数，近20交易日按结算日。

累计

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	7	0	4	3	0.00%	57.14%	42.86%
弱势方向修复	7	3	0	4	42.86%	0.00%	57.14%
方向剪刀差	5	5	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	7	0	2	5	0.00%	28.57%	71.43%
市场持续性	7	0	4	3	0.00%	57.14%	42.86%

近20个交易日

手写（无规则）	11	4	4	3	36.36%	36.36%	27.27%
强势方向延续	7	0	4	3	0.00%	57.14%	42.86%
弱势方向修复	7	3	0	4	42.86%	0.00%	57.14%
方向剪刀差	5	5	0	0	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%
涨停生态	7	0	2	5	0.00%	28.57%	71.43%
市场持续性	7	0	4	3	0.00%	57.14%	42.86%

共 48 条假设

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 待结算

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.45%、相对全A-1.98%、上涨覆盖37.2%。

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 待结算

创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于57.5%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 创新药相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.36%、相对全A+0.82%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 待结算

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖76.3%、MA20上方53.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

2026-08-25 → 2026-08-26 · 待结算

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

截至该归档日尚未结算；后续结果请到验证中心查看。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过6家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率71.4%、多板8家、跌停4家；强基数可能快速回落。

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 已确认 · 今日结算

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.8%、上涨宽度 82.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.1%、成交占比 5.7%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.06%、相对全A-1.90%、上涨覆盖11.1%。

相对全 A +0.8%、上涨宽度 82.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +2.1%、成交占比 5.7%

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 73.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.1%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.13%、相对全A+2.29%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.4%、上涨宽度 73.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.1%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 76.3%、均线上方占比 53.1%、成交额 1.8443 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖26.3%、MA20上方42.1%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 76.3%、均线上方占比 53.1%、成交额 1.8443 万亿

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 证据不足 · 今日结算

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 71.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 4 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于7家、跌停不超过16家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率69.6%、多板10家、跌停14家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 71.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 4 家

2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 · 已确认 · 今日结算

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-25 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -2.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 82.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.2%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱创新药相对收益差为4.2%。

强弱差 -2.2 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.4%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.8%、弱势方向上涨宽度 82.1%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 证据不足

创新药相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 11.1%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.2%、成交占比 5.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 创新药继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-3.71%、相对全A-3.63%、上涨覆盖5.4%。

相对全 A -1.9%、上涨宽度 11.1%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.2%、成交占比 5.8%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 未确认

MLCC居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 14.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.3%、成交占比 2.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于60.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: MLCC相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.81%、相对全A+1.88%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -1.6%、上涨宽度 14.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.3%、成交占比 2.1%

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 26.3%、均线上方占比 42.1%、成交额 2.0212 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖45.2%、MA20上方53.5%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 26.3%、均线上方占比 42.1%、成交额 2.0212 万亿

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 69.6%、连板数量 10 家、跌停数量 14 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过17家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率74.4%、多板13家、跌停15家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 69.6%、连板数量 10 家、跌停数量 14 家

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-24 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-24 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 0.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.9%、弱势方向上涨宽度 11.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由5.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强MLCC与最弱创新药相对收益差为5.5%。

强弱差 0.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -1.6%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.9%、弱势方向上涨宽度 11.1%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 已确认

电子化学品相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 58.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.3%、成交占比 2.2%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 电子化学品继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-0.46%、相对全A-1.86%、上涨覆盖37.2%。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 58.1%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.3%、成交占比 2.2%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 未确认

创新药居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -3.6%、上涨宽度 5.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -4.0%、成交占比 7.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 创新药继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于63.7%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 创新药相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+4.46%、相对全A+3.06%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -3.6%、上涨宽度 5.4%、成员涨跌中位数 -4.0%、成交占比 7.8%

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 45.2%、均线上方占比 53.5%、成交额 1.8923 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.9%、MA20上方58.6%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 45.2%、均线上方占比 53.5%、成交额 1.8923 万亿

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.4%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 15 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于5家、跌停不超过15家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率60.9%、多板5家、跌停13家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.4%、连板数量 13 家、跌停数量 15 家

2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-21 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -3.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -3.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 58.1%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由4.9%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强创新药与最弱电子化学品相对收益差为4.9%。

强弱差 -3.9 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -3.6%、弱势方向相对全 A +0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 58.1%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

MLCC相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -1.5%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 2.3%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: MLCC相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: MLCC继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-8.54%、相对全A-4.52%、上涨覆盖0.0%。

相对全 A -1.5%、上涨宽度 51.4%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 2.3%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.2%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.0%、成交占比 0.4%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益-2.47%、相对全A+1.55%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.2%、上涨宽度 83.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +1.0%、成交占比 0.4%

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 证据不足

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：上涨宽度 73.9%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.0939 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于60.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖8.1%、MA20上方50.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 73.9%、均线上方占比 58.6%、成交额 2.0939 万亿

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 60.9%、连板数量 5 家、跌停数量 13 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于6家、跌停不超过132家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率70.4%、多板8家、跌停130家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 60.9%、连板数量 5 家、跌停数量 13 家

2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-20 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 1.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.2%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 51.4%

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确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由6.1%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱MLCC相对收益差为6.1%。

强弱差 1.3 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.2%、弱势方向相对全 A -1.5%、弱势方向上涨宽度 51.4%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 证据不足

文化传媒相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.5%、上涨宽度 6.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.6%、成交占比 1.9%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 文化传媒相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 文化传媒继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.13%、相对全A-1.19%、上涨覆盖19.9%。

相对全 A +0.5%、上涨宽度 6.6%、成员涨跌中位数 -3.6%、成交占比 1.9%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

玻璃基板居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -3.4%、上涨宽度 1.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -8.0%、成交占比 4.2%

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确认条件: 玻璃基板继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于55.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 玻璃基板相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+1.14%、相对全A+1.09%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -3.4%、上涨宽度 1.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -8.0%、成交占比 4.2%

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 8.1%、均线上方占比 50.0%、成交额 2.5300 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于71.0%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖38.3%、MA20上方81.0%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 8.1%、均线上方占比 50.0%、成交额 2.5300 万亿

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-19 · 未确认

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-19 收盘结算为未确认；实际：封板率 70.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 130 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于75.0%、多板梯队不少于13家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率73.0%、多板19家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 70.4%、连板数量 8 家、跌停数量 130 家

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 已确认

白酒逆势偏弱是否开始收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为已确认；实际：相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 白酒相对全A的落后幅度收窄，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势从前排扩散至方向中位数。
风险: 单日防御与进攻风格切换可能造成白酒相对收益波动，不能以一天判断中期方向。
反证: 8月17日白酒方向下跌1.25%，是16个重点方向中唯一明显走弱者。

相对全 A +0.3%、上涨宽度 53.3%、成员涨跌中位数 +0.1%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足

高封板率与多板梯队能否保持稳定

涨停生态按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于80%、多板梯队不少于12家、跌停家数不超过3家。
失效条件: 封板率跌破70%，或多板梯队少于8家且跌停家数同步增加。
风险: 涨跌幅制度因交易板与ST状态而异，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径，不能只看约10%涨跌幅。
反证: 8月17日封板率87.30%、多板15家、跌停1家处于较强状态，高位样本次日分化可能使指标快速回落。

封板率 73.0%、连板数量 19 家、跌停数量 6 家

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 证据不足

电子化学品强势能否扩散而非单日脉冲

强势方向延续按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 电子化学品继续取得正相对收益，方向内上涨覆盖保持60%以上，且成交占比未明显收缩。
失效条件: 相对收益转负、上涨覆盖跌破45%，或前排上涨而方向中位数转负。
风险: 方向篮子是透明映射后的市场观察口径，不等同于官方指数，也不代表基本面兑现。
反证: 8月17日单日涨幅5.09%位居方向第一，短线拥挤与次日分化风险同时上升。

相对全 A +0.4%、上涨宽度 44.2%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.5%、成交占比 2.8%

2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 · 未确认

广度与量能共振能否延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-18 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖保持50%以上、MA20上方比例保持80%以上，且成交额较8月17日收缩不超过10%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖跌破40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 8月17日属于单日强扩散，次日可能出现自然均值回归，不能把一天的普涨外推为趋势。
反证: 8月17日上涨覆盖78.26%、成交额环比增加11.40%，高基数本身提高了次日延续难度。

上涨宽度 38.3%、均线上方占比 81.0%、成交额 2.4198 万亿

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 未确认

医药相对强势能否从前排扩散到上涨覆盖

8月12日医药生物上涨0.53%、上涨覆盖54.78%，但落后全A等权平均涨幅约1.24%，只满足覆盖条件，未取得正相对收益。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 医药健康继续取得正相对收益，且上涨覆盖高于50%。
失效条件: 医药健康相对收益转负且上涨覆盖继续低于市场中性线。
风险: 主题篮子由申万一级行业聚合，会掩盖医药子行业分化。
反证: 8月11日医药健康等权上涨0.32%，但上涨覆盖仅42.48%。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

封板生态能否在普跌后保持稳定

8月12日封板率88.18%、多板17家、跌停0家，三项条件全部满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于74%，多板梯队不少于16家，跌停家数不扩张。
失效条件: 封板率与多板梯队同步收缩，或跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板和ST股票涨跌幅制度不同，数量比较必须保持同一逐股判定口径。
反证: 8月11日81家触板中21家炸板，市场广度仍显著承压。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

资源与军工高位分歧是否收敛

8月12日有色金属上涨1.09%、上涨覆盖79.45%；国防军工上涨1.00%、上涨覆盖77.86%，跌幅收窄与覆盖条件同时满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 有色金属与国防军工跌幅明显收窄，且至少一个行业上涨覆盖回到45%以上。
失效条件: 两者继续居行业跌幅前列，MA20上方比例同步显著下滑。
风险: 单日行业等权收益易受小市值与极端样本影响。
反证: 有色金属与国防军工8月11日分别下跌3.05%和2.17%，但五日收益仍为正。

2026-08-11 → 2026-08-12 · 已确认

单日普跌与MA20趋势存量的背离是否收敛

8月12日上涨覆盖74.53%，MA20上方比例90.02%，两项均达到确认阈值。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖回到40%以上，同时MA20上方比例保持75%以上。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖继续低于35%，且MA20上方比例明显下滑。
风险: MA20为价格状态，不代表基本面，也可能在快速回撤中滞后。
反证: 8月11日上涨覆盖仅29.16%，但MA20上方仍为88.14%，两个尺度明显冲突。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

玻璃基板相对弱势能否收敛

弱势方向修复按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 玻璃基板相对全A落后幅度收窄至0.5个百分点以内，上涨覆盖回到45%以上，且方向中位收益不再为负。
失效条件: 玻璃基板继续取得负相对收益且上涨覆盖低于35%，弱势扩散到方向中位数。
风险: 低位方向可能仅受风格轮换扰动；单日收敛不等于中期修复。
反证: 生成日收益-1.41%、相对全A-2.77%、上涨覆盖28.1%。

相对全 A -0.3%、上涨宽度 29.8%、成员涨跌中位数 -0.6%、成交占比 3.0%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

酿酒居前能否转化为内部扩散延续

强势方向延续按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 酿酒继续取得正相对全A收益、上涨覆盖不低于70.0%，成交占比不低于生成日的75%。
失效条件: 酿酒相对收益转负且上涨覆盖低于45%，或方向中位收益转负。
风险: 同花顺方向成员是当前快照，不是点时历史；次日若成员发生变化，结算质量必须降级为证据不足。
反证: 生成日单日收益+2.05%、相对全A+0.69%，短期拥挤与分化风险上升。

相对全 A -0.9%、上涨宽度 13.3%、成员涨跌中位数 -1.0%、成交占比 0.5%

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

科技承接是否从高位硬件迁移至设备与软件

已取得行业级横截面，但设备、硬件与软件子链仍未使用统一点时成分定义，不能以行业篮子替代子链结算。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 设备或软件相对全A收益连续改善，成交额占比和上涨覆盖同步扩张。
失效条件: 设备与软件同步转弱，且高位硬件负反馈继续扩散。
风险: 当前只具备价格成交代理叙事，没有全量子链数据。
反证: 双创指数仍弱，承接方向未形成一致扩散。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

上证第一压力带的有效突破条件

上证收于3934.09，低于3975；成交环比-7.99%，上涨覆盖29.16%，突破确认条件未满足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上证收盘稳定站上3975，且成交与上涨覆盖同步改善。
失效条件: 触及后回落并收于3975下方，或缩量突破且广度显著收窄。
风险: 真实指数日K已接入；压力点位仍来自来源图示，尚无历史样本标定与成功率。
反证: 压力可以短期越过，单点触及不能视为趋势确认。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

医药前排聚焦能否转为板块扩散

医药健康当日相对居前，但缺少8月10日同一透明篮子的上涨覆盖与成交占比快照，无法判定两项是否改善。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 板块相对收益、上涨覆盖和成交占比至少两项改善，且前排未集体转弱。
失效条件: 前排一致转弱，或板块上涨覆盖与成交占比同步下降。
风险: 来源缺少完整板块横截面，暂不能计算阈值。
反证: 8月10日已有高位容量样本冲高回落。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 未确认

广度、趋势存量与量能能否共同延续

市场持续性按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为未确认；实际：上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 上涨覆盖不低于50%，MA20上方比例不低于79.9%，且成交额不低于当日的90%。
失效条件: 上涨覆盖低于40%，或成交额收缩超过15%且MA20上方比例同步下降。
风险: 强扩散后的自然均值回归可能造成单日回落，确认规则只描述次日延续，不外推中期趋势。
反证: 生成日上涨覆盖73.5%、MA20上方89.9%，高基数提高了延续难度。

上涨宽度 29.2%、均线上方占比 88.1%、成交额 2.3356 万亿

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

午后流动性收缩是否延续

全天成交继续缩减2031.2亿元，但TuShare日线无法提供午后拆分；只满足一半条件，结算为证据不足。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 次日成交继续低于前日，且午后成交变化仍为负。
失效条件: 次日全天与午后成交同步恢复，且市场广度未显著恶化。
风险: 单日午后缩量可能受时点和基数影响。
反证: 8月10日上涨家数仍达4067家，缩量并未同步造成广度恶化。

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 证据不足

封板质量、晋级梯队与负反馈能否保持协调

涨停生态按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为证据不足；实际：封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 封板率不低于77.1%、多板梯队不少于9家、跌停不超过8家。
失效条件: 封板率低于65%，或多板梯队缩减过半且跌停家数明显增加。
风险: 不同交易板与ST状态涨跌幅制度不同，必须沿用逐股涨跌停价口径。
反证: 生成日封板率85.1%、多板13家、跌停6家；强基数可能快速回落。

封板率 74.1%、连板数量 16 家、跌停数量 2 家

2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 · 已确认

方向高低剪刀差是收敛还是继续扩大

方向剪刀差按 2026-08-11 收盘结算为已确认；实际：强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

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确认条件: 最强与最弱方向的相对收益差由3.5%收敛至少25%，同时弱方向上涨覆盖改善。
失效条件: 剪刀差不降反升，且弱方向上涨覆盖继续下降。
风险: 剪刀差收敛可能来自强方向回落，也可能来自弱方向修复，必须分解两端贡献。
反证: 生成日最强酿酒与最弱玻璃基板相对收益差为3.5%。

强弱差 -0.6 个百分点、强势方向相对全 A -0.9%、弱势方向相对全 A -0.3%、弱势方向上涨宽度 29.8%

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

指数与大单净流入代理重新同向改善

出现明确背离，原假设未确认。

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确认条件: 主要指数收涨，且同口径供应商大单净流入代理为正。
失效条件: 指数与该代理继续背离，或代理转为净流出。
风险: 供应商算法未披露，该代理不能代表真实机构资金。
反证: 8月10日上证收涨0.67%，但供应商大单净流入代理为-414.7亿元。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 已确认

AI硬件保持来源综合强弱前二

来源确认：来源标签为当日第1、五日第1；仅确认来源排名延续，不确认可交易性。

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确认条件: 来源同口径当日和五日综合强弱均保持前二。
失效条件: 任一同口径排名跌出前二。
风险: 来源排名方法不可复算，只能结算来源标签是否延续。
反证: 没有订单、利润或毛利率新增硬证据。

2026-08-07 → 2026-08-10 · 未确认

AI硬件出现新增基本面硬证据

复核日仍缺少新增基本面硬证据。

查看确认、失效与反证

确认条件: 出现可核验的订单、利润或毛利率新增证据。
失效条件: 复核日仍无新增硬证据。
风险: 短期市场强弱可能先于基本面披露。
反证: 8月10日来源明确写明未取得新增订单、利润或毛利率证据。

数据生成于 2026-10-05T13:03:23.531697+08:00。方向采用成分快照，历史重算须核对成员采集日期。